MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0896

ACUS11 KWNS 261754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261754
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-262000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN MO...SERN IA...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261754Z - 262000Z

NUMEROUS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST
FROM ERN KS ACROSS NRN MO AND SERN IA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SPREAD ALONG A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
ACROSS NRN IL. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED BY A COMBINATION OF FACTORS INCLUDING LACK OF STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A WATCH APPEARS
UNLIKELY IN THIS AREA.

POORLY ORGANIZED BANDS AND A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE SLOWLY
INCREASING WITHIN NARROW WARM SECTOR LOWER FROM MO VALLEY TO MID MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN COVERAGE OF STORMS/PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AIR MASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE AND
LATEST MLCAPE VALUES APPEAR TO BE HOLDING AROUND 500-800 J/KG.
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ACROSS KS/MO AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BOOST INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESPOND WITH MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
LIKELY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND NEAR/ALONG THE WARM
FRONT FROM ERN IA INTO WRN IL. THIS REGION OF THE WARM SECTOR LIES
BENEATH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LAPSE
RATES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW HAIL EVENTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR
FUNNEL CLOUD FROM CELLS TRACKING NEAR/ACROSS THE WARM
FRONT...OVERALL POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A
WATCH.

.CARBIN.. 05/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

40908973 39259322 38119676 39089698 39929548 41389374
42189163 41959099 41619029

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