SWODY2
SPC AC 220540
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN BRANCH UPR TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW EARLY SUNDAY WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE SEWD AND CLOSE INTO A LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO EARLY
IN THE PD...WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING ENE INTO SERN NEB BY 12Z
TUESDAY. A STG CDFNT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE
PLNS...REACHING ERN KS...SERN OK AND CNTRL TX BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
RAPID SUCCESSION OF NRN STREAM WAVES WILL PRECLUDE QUALITY MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPR TROUGH. WARM SECTOR
WILL MOISTEN SOME...HOWEVER...WITH PWATS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.75
INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE CDFNT IN THE CNTRL PLNS TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE TX GULF CST. BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ALONG/BEHIND THE SURGING CDFNT LATE MONDAY AS 60-METER/12-HR HEIGHT
FALLS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS.
FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE
MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN SUCH STG FORCING FOR ASCENT...SPORADIC TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BEGIN OVER CNTRL OK...ERN
KS...EXTREME SERN NEB AND THEN EXPAND DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF SRN
IA...NRN/WRN MO...WRN AR AND PARTS OF NERN TX LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MEAGER THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL
PRECLUDE SVR TSTMS.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER S...DEEPENING MOIST PROFILES WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX. CINH IS LIABLE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL BEYOND THE DAY 2 PD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX.
..RACY.. 11/22/2009
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