SWODY1
SPC AC 010445
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS/WRN
OK/NWRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL ADVANCE
EWD...REACHING THE ROCKIES BY EARLY FRI. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
/CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN/ WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THU EVENING...CONTINUING TOWARDS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
CNTRL CA COAST WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...ONTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/FRI.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD IMPULSE AND CONTINUE NEWD ALONG A
WARM FRONT MOVING NWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
SECONDARY/WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THU EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT ATTENDING SOUTHWEST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE WILL MERGE
WITH CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DRYLINE THU NIGHT.
...CNTRL KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX...
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ADVECTING A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NWD...WITH 55-60
DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON E OF DRYLINE BY 00Z/FRI. THIS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML...LIKELY
REMAINING STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY MARGINAL QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LATER MOISTURE AND
DEEPER-LAYER FORCING REMAINING W/NW.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS WWD AND MERGES WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO.
...SERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN MN...
DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...A ROBUST WARM THETA-E
ADVECTION REGIME BETWEEN 850-700 MB THU EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS N OF RETREATING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000
J/KG...STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS...SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT.
..GRAMS/DARROW.. 04/01/2010
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