SWOD48
SPC AC 220845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUS IS ON THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC
COAST/SOUTHEAST U.S. DAY 4 /SUN. APR. 25/...WHERE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS DEPICT CONTINUED EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY OFF -- THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST.
VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR...PROVIDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED
WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THIS AREA.
BY DAY 5 /MON. APR. 26/...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED WELL OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WEAK LAPSE RATES
ARE INDICATED -- SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
LIMITED. THUS -- DESPITE ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LOW ATTM.
AS THE MAIN ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY
5 BUT LINGERS OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND...THE NEXT MAJOR
TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. TOWARD THE
DESERT SW THROUGH DAY 7 /WED. APR. 28/. THE GFS AND ECMWF -- WHILE
DIFFERENT IN THE DETAILS...AGREE THAT THIS LOW/TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
EWD DAY 8...WITH AN EXPANDING CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR
EVOLVING EAST OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO/THROUGH DAY 8 /THU. APR. 29/...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE IN
THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF A
THREAT AREA.
..GOSS.. 04/22/2010
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