SWODY2
SPC AC 280659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD WITH
TIME...WITH SOME DIGGING OF THIS FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE MODELS AS AN
EMBEDDED/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TROUGH DIVES SEWD INTO TX.
AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED/EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...SHIFTING E OF THE MS VALLEY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
FORCING GIVEN POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS -- FROM IL/WI SWD TO LA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTION FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL AR/TN NWD SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED TO THE N OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT...MIXED-LAYER
CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED FROM SRN AR SWD -- SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH
HEIGHT PROVIDING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.
WHILE QUESTIONS EXIST WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...STORMS
ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
THREAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE/SHIFT EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..GOSS.. 11/28/2010
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