DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220100
SWODY1
SPC AC 220059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN CO/NWRN KS/S-CNTRL
NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...ERN CO/NWRN KS/S-CNTRL NEB...
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN CO
PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN SD SWWD INTO N-CNTRL
CO. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS FEATURING
A DEVELOPING 35 KT LLJ THIS EVENING SHOULD ACT TO MAINTAIN FORCING
FOR ASCENT/MASS FLUX INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD
AID IN SOME STORM CONGEALING/CONGLOMERATION INTO AN MCS CAPABLE OF
ISOLD SEVERE/DMGG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS SPREAD E-NE WITH TIME.

...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
S OF AN EARLIER PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
MAINE...WEAK UPPER RIDGING/WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE MCV
HAVE NEGATED APPRECIABLE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR ACROSS
THE REGION. RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ALONG A W-E
ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER FAR SRN QUEBEC INTO A
LARGELY UNDISTURBED AIRMASS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z GYX/ALB RAOBS SEEMS
TO JUSTIFY A CONTINUATION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK /ALBEIT
CONDITIONAL/ INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND/HAIL RISK.

...WRN TN/NRN MS-AL-GA...
DIURNAL STABILIZATION AND OVERALL WEAKENING TRENDS THE PAST HOUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH A WWD PROPAGATING COLD POOL
THROUGH WRN TN AND OTHER PULSE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...NEGATING THE NEED FOR LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..SMITH/KERR.. 07/22/2011

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