DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250550
SWODY1
SPC AC 250548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND EAST
TX...LA AND FAR SW MS...

...CNTRL AND EAST TX/LA/SW MS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER FAR WEST TX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SW TX TODAY
AND INTO CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. A LINEAR MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
12Z THIS MORNING EXTENDING SSWWD FROM THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ONTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF
SAN ANTONIO. STRONG FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
TO THE EAST AND BANDED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO LA THIS EVENING.

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING WITH THE LINEAR MCS AT DAYBREAK IN
SCNTRL TX WHERE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD
WHERE THE MODELS MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 40 TO
50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE
LINEAR MCS MOVES GRADUALLY EWD. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FROM THE ERN TX HILL COUNTRY TO THE HOUSTON AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...A FEW
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ACROSS
CNTRL AND SE TX WITH THE TORNADO THREAT ALSO PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINEAR MCS. THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT
SHOULD EXIST WITH STORMS CLOSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET CENTER. AS THE
LINE MOVES INTO LA THIS EVENING...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN THREAT AND MAY BECOME MARGINAL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 01/25/2012

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