DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250700
SWODY2
SPC AC 250659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER E TX IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS STEADILY
EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS PERIOD...AS IT PHASES
WITH A NRN STREAM FEATURE CROSSING THE N CENTRAL CONUS. ASIDE FROM
A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CA/OREGON LATE...THIS
PHASING CENTRAL/ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE
OVER THE CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST -- INITIALLY INVOF THE MS VALLEY AND THEN SHIFTING EWD
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. WITH TIME. WHAT SHOULD INITIALLY BE TWO
DISTINCT SYSTEMS -- A LOW OVER FAR WRN ONTARIO AND A SECOND NEAR THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF E TX/WRN LA...SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ONE
LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST HOWEVER WILL BE A SRN LOW CENTER WITHIN THE
BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES AND REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY CROSSING LA. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION -- INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER -- WILL BE ONGOING IN A ZONE CENTERED OVER THE MID
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...AND WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS -- LIMITED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STILL...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCING EWD AND
ACCOMPANYING SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS...THREATS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE EVIDENT -- LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS CONVECTION CROSSES ERN AL/GA/THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE LATTER
STAGES OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/25/2012

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