DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060447
SWODY2
SPC AC 060446

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BLOCKING REMAINING PROMINENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND CONFLUENT BELTS OF WESTERLIES TO THE EAST
MERGING INTO BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM...MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATTER FEATURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
EAST OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT STRONGER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH LIKELY WILL INITIALLY EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 12Z
SUNDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD FEATURE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR EMANATING
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES MAY LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

...SOUTHEAST...
POST-FRONTAL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...BASED IN LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AT 12Z
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE QUITE
WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT COULD EXTEND THROUGH THE MIXED
PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND AT LEAST SOME
LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA...PERHAPS NORTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE FRONT NEAR CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...WHERE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AMONG OTHER
UNCERTAINTIES...THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TO
BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT...AND SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
STILL APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN APPEARS
PROBABLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX...
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION
...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

..KERR.. 10/06/2012

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