SWODY1
SPC AC 031956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2009
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN
WEAKLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING NEWD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD SRN AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. MOST
OF THE THUNDER IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...AFTER WHICH A
STABILIZING AIRMASS SUGGESTS A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
...FL...
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN INCREASINGLY-UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INLAND INVOF THE SURFACE
FRONT NOW OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. WITH STORMS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE E COAST OF FL THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WILL REMOVE ALL THUNDER/SEVERE PROBABILITY INLAND THIS
FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 04/03/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2009/
...MID ATLANTIC...
DEEPENING LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD
AND INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT. BAND OF ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS RACING NEWD THRU ERN PA/NJ. EVEN
THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE INSTABILITY...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY NEAR SEVERE WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE GIVEN THE
50KT LLJ. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM CENTRAL PA TO DC TO
SERN VA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW TOPPED FORCED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL...HOWEVER LACK OF INSTABILITY
PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SEVERE THREAT.
...FL...
TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL FL. A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MARGINAL SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS ALONG THE LINE DURING THE MORNING...DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER
VEERED AND ARE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT TORNADO THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW.
LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AND THEY
SHOULD ALSO END BY EVENING.
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