SWOD48
SPC AC 020823
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT WED NOV 02 2011
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE
ACROSS AZ/NM BEGINNING THE MORNING OF SAT/D4. THIS FEATURE WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 00Z...WITH A RATHER DEEP SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER NERN CO OR NWRN KS AT 00Z. DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
ASCENT WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL STAY WELL
N OF ANY SUBSTANTIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL RESIDE ONLY
OVER DEEP S TX. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ZERO MUCAPE PRESENT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR. THUS...WHILE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE VERY
STRONG...WITH EVEN PLAIN RAIN STAYING GENERALLY N OF A DDC TO DSM
LINE.
THIS TROUGH WILL MINOR OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SUN/D5...WITH A BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
WITH NEAR 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO OK BY SUN AFTERNOON. WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR BUT
SUBTLE NATURE OF FORCING SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL NOT OCCUR.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS
WHICH WILL BE OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON/D6.
BY D6...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
ECMWF...THE TYPICALLY PREFERRED MODEL...INDICATES A DEEPER UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...SUGGESTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS ON MON/D6. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN A TWO
DAY PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR MON AND TUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WOULD BE EVEN GREATER ON TUE/D7 OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND
PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE AREAS.
..JEWELL.. 11/02/2011
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