SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020954
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-021500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT WED NOV 02 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH E-CENTRAL CO...NWRN
KS...SWRN NEB.
CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
VALID 020954Z - 021500Z
THROUGH 15Z...THREAT EXISTS FOR MDT-HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY OCNL
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS SWATH OF CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS FROM TAD/PUB AREAS NEWD OVER LHX/LAA AREAS TO NEAR GLD...MCK
AND PERHAPS HLC. 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ACCOMPANIED BY LTG.
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOW OVER
AREAS W OF I-25 SWD TO NEAR NM BORDER...WITH SOME 2-3 INCH/HOUR
RATES REACHING ELEVATIONS BELOW 8000 FT MSL.
MULTITUDE OF FORCINGS FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AFFECTING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF STG CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- ANCHORED BY 500-MB LOW NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER SW CO. LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH 18Z
ACROSS SRN CO TO NERN NM AND SWRN KS. LARGE-SCALE DCVA WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED WITH MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AND PARALLEL/SW-NE
ALIGNED BANDS OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SLANTWISE CONVECTION...INITIALLY OVER CO THEN EWD ACROSS KS BORDER
BY 15Z. MEANWHILE PROBABILITY FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER
EXISTS BOTH NEAR COLD-CORE REGION OF CYCLONE...AS ALREADY OBSERVED
IN S-CENTRAL CO...AND INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS ERN CO/WRN
KS IN PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED CONVEYOR OF MOISTENING. MUCAPE 100-350
J/KG IS POSSIBLE...ROOTED BETWEEN 500-600 MB. COMBINATION OF
COLUMNAR DYNAMIC COOLING AND POSTFRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL SHUNT
BOUNDARY-LAYER FREEZING LINE SWD FROM S-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB INTO
W-CENTRAL KS ALSO...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO SPREAD NEWD
OVER S-CENTRAL NEB BY 18Z.
..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38520487 39250386 39740309 39570208 40290065 40439997
39979957 39409986 38390118 37660230 37330305 37120365
37120450 37490520 38380580 38520487
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