Saturday, May 12, 2007

KTBW [122145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 122145
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
545 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HAIL 9 WSW ARCADIA 27.17N 82.00W
05/12/2007 E0.50 INCH DESOTO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZED HAIL 5 MILES SOUTH OF SR-72

0432 PM HAIL 3 WNW ARCADIA 27.24N 81.90W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH DESOTO FL EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER AT THEIR
HOME NEAR SR-661A

0439 PM HAIL 3 NW ARCADIA 27.25N 81.89W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH DESOTO FL PUBLIC

PENNY SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND NEAR SR-661 AND NW
SAMS STREET


&&

$$

JILLSON

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KLIX [122140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 122140
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0438 PM HAIL PICAYUNE 30.53N 89.68W
05/12/2007 E0.25 INCH PEARL RIVER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA SIZE HAIL BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
PICAYUNE.


&&

$$

92/JSS

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KGSP [122136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 122136
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL FORTSONIA 34.01N 82.78W
05/12/2007 E1.75 INCH ELBERT GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS DEPUTY REPORTS GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN SOUTHERN
PART OF THE COUNTY


&&

$$

LANE

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KJAN [122133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 122133
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
432 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL WEST POINT 33.61N 88.64W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH CLAY MS PUBLIC

PENNY HAIL REPORTED BY GAS STATION ON EAST SIDE OF TOWN.


&&

$$

JCULIN

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KLIX [122130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 122130
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM HAIL VANCLEAVE 30.54N 88.67W
05/12/2007 E0.50 INCH JACKSON MS EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL FALLING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF VANCLEAVE.


&&

$$

92/JSS

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KCAE [122125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 122125
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
525 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HAIL 11 SSW HEATH SPRINGS 34.45N 80.78W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH KERSHAW SC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THIS LOCATION.


&&

$$

FPW

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KRAH [122116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 122116
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
516 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 E SEAGROVE 35.54N 79.63W
05/12/2007 RANDOLPH NC PUBLIC

TREES DOWN BLOCKING FORK CREEK MILL ROAD.


&&

$$

ORROCK

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KFFC [122108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 122108
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 3 SE GRIFFIN 33.21N 84.24W
05/12/2007 E0.88 INCH SPALDING GA COUNTY OFFICIAL


&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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KGSP [122106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 122106
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE FOUNTAIN INN 34.67N 82.18W
05/12/2007 LAURENS SC EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE TREE DOWN ON DURBIN RD.


&&

$$

GMS

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KRAH [122105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 122105
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
504 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 PM HAIL 8 NE BUTNER 36.22N 78.67W
05/12/2007 M1.00 INCH GRANVILLE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORT FROM HIGHWAY 15 AND SANDERS ROAD.


&&

$$

WSS

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KFFC [122104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 122104
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
503 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N DAWSONVILLE 34.48N 84.12W
05/12/2007 DAWSON GA EMERGENCY MNGR

HEN HOUSE DAMAGED AS WELL AS ANOTHER CONNECTED STRUCTURE.
DAMAGE ESTIMATED AROUND 4000 DOLLARS. A COUPLE TREES WERE
ALSO DOWN ON POWER LINES IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

HANDEL

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KRAH [122101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 122101
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
501 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM HAIL 2 E BUTNER 36.14N 78.73W
05/12/2007 M1.00 INCH GRANVILLE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORT FROM EAST LYON STATION ROAD


&&

$$

WSS

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KRAH [122100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 122100
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0449 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 S RAMSEUR 35.66N 79.65W
05/12/2007 RANDOLPH NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE FORT CREEK HAS COME OUT OF ITS BANKS AND IS FLOODING
RIVERSIDE BRIDGE. OTHER CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE NEAR FLOOD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.


&&

$$

JFB

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KMFL [122055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMFL 122055
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
454 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL PALMDALE 26.94N 81.31W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH GLADES FL PUBLIC

PHONE CALL CAME THROUGH TBW WFO. EVENT- THUNDERSTORM IN
GLADES COUNTY, MOVING E-NE. HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

LOCKE

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KRNK [122054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 122054
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
454 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL CRITZ 36.63N 80.15W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH PATRICK VA PUBLIC

COVERED THE GROUND.


&&

$$

JSTEWART

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KGSP [122050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 122050
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL GOLD HILL 35.52N 80.34W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH ROWAN NC AIRPLANE PILOT

THE PRESIDENT OF THE AIRPORT ASSOCIATION REPORTED LOTS OF
PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL FELL WITH MAXIMUM SIZED HAIL
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.


&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KMFL [122049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 122049
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
448 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL PALMDALE 26.94N 81.31W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH GLADES FL PUBLIC

PHONE CALL CAME THROUGH TBW WFO


&&

$$

LOCKE

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KMHX [122047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 122047
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 2 W GREENVILLE 35.60N 77.41W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH PITT NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL 2 MILES WEST OF
GREENVILLE ON HIGHWAY 264


&&

$$

JELARDO

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KRAH [122046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 122046
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
446 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM HAIL STEM 36.20N 78.72W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH GRANVILLE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

WSS

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KRAH [122030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 122030
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
430 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S ALBEMARLE 35.33N 80.19W
05/12/2007 STANLY NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING OF SEVERAL ROADS ALONG HIGHWAY 52 SOUTH OF
ALBEMARLE RESULTED IN SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES. ALL ROADS
WERE OPEN AS OF 430 PM.


&&

$$

ORROCK

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KFFC [122024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 122024
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL PENDERGRASS 34.16N 83.68W
05/12/2007 E0.50 INCH JACKSON GA PUBLIC

0405 PM HAIL 3 W CUMMING 34.21N 84.19W
05/12/2007 E0.25 INCH FORSYTH GA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 267

WWUS20 KWNS 122012
SEL7
SPC WW 122012
MTZ000-130400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM MDT SAT MAY 12 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF BOZEMAN MONTANA TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREAT FALLS
MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS W-CENTRAL/SWRN MT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED
BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AIR
MASS IS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS
WHERE MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND WEAK CINH IS ALREADY IN PLACE.
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND POSSIBLY
SMALL LINES AS ACTIVITY BUILDS UPSCALE AND MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22025.


..EVANS

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KGSP [122008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 122008
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0404 PM HAIL SIMPSONVILLE 34.73N 82.26W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH GREENVILLE SC TRAINED SPOTTER

FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR DOWNTOWN

&&

$$

LANE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 122005
SWODY1
SPC AC 122003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO HIGH PLAINS...

..NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO HIGH PLAINS...

MODIFICATION OF 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL MT SEWD
INTO NERN WY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION /THOUGH NOT AS STRONG/ IS OCCURRING SWWD ALONG
TRAILING PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE CNTRL ID PNHDL INTO
NERN ORE. WHILE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE PACIFIC
NW COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
EMBEDDED WEAKER IMPULSES OVER ERN ORE AND ANOTHER FARTHER TO THE E
OVER NERN NV/NRN UT INTO SERN ID.

STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED
WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CNTRL ID/SWRN MT SEWD INTO WRN WY. WITH
TIME...STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS OVER THE ID PNHDL
AND WRN MT...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE
OVER CNTRL/ERN MT. REGIONAL VWPS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE
THAT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH 40-45 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO CNTRL MT TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL. MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..MN...

BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS /ORIENTED IN NW-SE FASHION/ HAVE PERSISTED
TODAY FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN AND NRN IA...DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA
TO THE NE OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT LLJ MAY WEAKEN TEMPORARILY THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO
REINTENSIFYING ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...ELEVATED STORMS MAY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...MAINLY
AFTER 13/06Z. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS.

..CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA SWWD INTO TX...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS HAS DEVELOPED OVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INSTABILITY
WERE MODESTLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL
GULF COAST/ WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -14 C. VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
WITH STORM CLUSTERS THAT CAN FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG
MERGING/ORGANIZING COLD POOLS.

.MEAD.. 05/12/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121959
SWODY1
SPC AC 121956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO HIGH PLAINS...

..NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO HIGH PLAINS...

MODIFICATION OF 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL MT SEWD
INTO NERN WY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION /THOUGH NOT AS STRONG/ IS OCCURRING SWWD ALONG
TRAILING PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE CNTRL ID PNHDL INTO
NERN ORE. WHILE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE PACIFIC
NW COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
EMBEDDED WEAKER IMPULSES OVER ERN ORE AND ANOTHER FARTHER TO THE E
OVER NERN NV/NRN UT INTO SERN ID.

STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED
WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER CNTRL ID/SWRN MT SEWD INTO WRN WY. WITH
TIME...STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS OVER THE ID PNHDL
AND WRN MT...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE
OVER CNTRL/ERN MT. REGIONAL VWPS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE
THAT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH 40-45 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO CNTRL MT TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL. MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..MN...

BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS /ORIENTED IN NW-SE FASHION/ HAVE PERSISTED
TODAY FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN AND NRN IA...DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA
TO THE NE OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT LLJ MAY WEAKEN TEMPORARILY THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO
REINTENSIFYING ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...ELEVATED STORMS MAY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...MAINLY
AFTER 13/06Z. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS.

..CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA SWWD INTO TX...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS HAS DEVELOPED OVER A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INSTABILITY
WERE MODESTLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL
GULF COAST/ WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -14 C. VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
WITH STORM CLUSTERS THAT CAN FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG
MERGING/ORGANIZING COLD POOLS.

.MEAD.. 05/12/2007

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KRAH [121956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 121956
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
356 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL SPRING HOPE 35.94N 78.11W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH NASH NC AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED BY SPRING HOPE POLICE DEPT.


&&

$$

ORROCK

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KFFC [121953]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 121953
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 3 SSE PINE MOUNTAIN 32.82N 84.83W
05/12/2007 E0.88 INCH HARRIS GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PARK OFFICIALS AT F D
ROOSEVELT STATE PART.

0257 PM HAIL 3 N MCKEE 34.50N 84.14W
05/12/2007 E0.25 INCH LUMPKIN GA EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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KGSP [121949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 121949
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 4 E EASLEY 34.82N 82.52W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH PICKENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER STATED THAT HE WAS RECEIVING PEA TO DIME SIZED
HAIL 1 MILE WEST OF THE GREENVILLE-PICKENS SPEEDWAY.


&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KRAH [121948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 121948
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
348 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL 4 SE LOUISBURG 36.06N 78.25W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH FRANKLIN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

ORROCK

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KFFC [121923]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 121923
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM HAIL 3 SW NIMBLEWILL 34.53N 84.18W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH LUMPKIN GA PUBLIC


&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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KFFC [121912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 121912
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL 2 WSW NIMBLEWILL 34.55N 84.17W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH LUMPKIN GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 52.


&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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KGSP [121856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 121856
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 3 NE LOWESVILLE 35.45N 80.96W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH LINCOLN NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A FIRE DEPARTMENT RELAYED A REPORT THROUGH THE COUNTY
COMMUNICATIONS CENTER OF HAIL RANGING IN SIZE FROM
NICKELS TO QUARTERS WHICH FELL FROM 2 PM TO NEAR 215 PM.
THIS WAS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 16 AND 73.

0237 PM HAIL KANNAPOLIS 35.49N 80.62W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH CABARRUS NC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KRAH [121837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 121837
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
237 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG ALBEMARLE 35.36N 80.19W
05/12/2007 STANLY NC EMERGENCY MNGR

EMA REPORTS TREES DOWN ON AT LEAST TWO HOUSES IN
ALBEMARLE


&&

$$

JFB

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KFFC [121831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 121831
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL 3 E PORTER SPRINGS 34.63N 83.90W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH LUMPKIN GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0776

ACUS11 KWNS 121824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121823
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-122030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC THROUGH SC AND GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121823Z - 122030Z

STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC THROUGH SC...PORTIONS OF
GA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NC FROM NEAR RALEIGH SWWD TO NEAR CHARLOTTE THEN
SWWD INTO NERN GA. OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SOUTHERN PINES NC TO NEAR COLUMBIA
SC AND FARTHER SW INTO E CNTRL GA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST GENERALLY AOB 6 C/KM. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PULSE/MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NC ARE QUITE NUMEROUS
AND POTENTIAL EXIST FOR THESE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE AS THEY ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD.

.DIAL.. 05/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

33868290 35138279 35268123 35467981 36087816 35167733
33547957 33338165

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KRAH [121811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 121811
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL ALBEMARLE 35.36N 80.19W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH STANLY NC EMERGENCY MNGR

IN ADDITION TO THE PENNY SIZE HAIL, A 16 TO 18 INCH
DIAMETER TREE LIMB FELL ONTO A HOUSE


&&

$$

JFB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121723
SWODY2
SPC AC 121722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

..SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER N. AMERICA DURING THE
DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES FROM THE
WRN STATES EWD THROUGH N-CNTRL TIER TO ERN STATES. SUB-TROPICAL
BRANCH WILL PERSIST FROM MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S
FL. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEAD SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO WEAKER DOWNSTREAM
IMPULSE WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM WRN SD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
SECONDARY/PRIMARY CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER SERN MT AND FOLLOWING A
SIMILAR TRACK. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SEWD THROUGH
THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHILE LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

..NRN HIGH PLAINS...

STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S/ ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF FRONT OVER CNTRL/ERN MT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC
UPSLOPE WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION BY AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO SWRN MT.

INITIALLY...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. THIS MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
N-CNTRL SD/S-CNTRL ND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

..UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS /SOME CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
MN...FORCED LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG SWLY 40-45 KT LLJ. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EWD
INTO WI. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE
EVOLUTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
STRONG CAP ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J PER KG/ OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER SERN MANITOBA/SWRN ONTARIO INTO
FAR NRN MN AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA ERODE CAP AHEAD OF INITIAL SURFACE LOW. HERE
TOO...INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTERS OR AN MCS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING
EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD...NRN WI AND THE UP OF MI SUNDAY
NIGHT.

..GULF COAST STATES...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ COUPLED WITH MODESTLY
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. RELATIVELY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

.MEAD.. 05/12/2007

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KJAN [121618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 121618
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1118 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL ARCHIE 31.58N 91.97W
05/11/2007 E0.75 INCH CATAHOULA LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY GAS STATION.

0425 PM HAIL 6 ENE SIBLEY 31.41N 91.30W
05/11/2007 E0.75 INCH ADAMS MS PUBLIC

0430 PM HAIL 5 S BUDE 31.39N 90.85W
05/11/2007 E0.88 INCH FRANKLIN MS EMERGENCY MNGR

0530 PM HAIL CLAYTON 31.72N 91.54W
05/11/2007 E0.88 INCH CONCORDIA LA PUBLIC

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N BAXTERVILLE 31.17N 89.59W
05/11/2007 LAMAR MS PUBLIC

A TREE REPORTED DOWN ON BAY CREEK ROAD ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTH OF BAXTERVILLE REPORTED BY EMPLOYEE FROM KOUNTRY
KORNER STORE.

0645 PM HAIL 2 E OLOH 31.30N 89.56W
05/11/2007 E1.75 INCH LAMAR MS PUBLIC

EMPLOYEE FROM KEITHS SUPERSTORE REPORTED THAT SOMEONE
CAME INTO THE STORE THAT HAD EXPERIENCED GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL 2 MILES EAST OF OLOH...AND IT CRACKED HIS
WINDSHIELD.


&&

$$

CME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121606
SWODY1
SPC AC 121604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NERN ORE INTO
PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN MT...

..NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...
MID LEVEL VORT MAX/UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 44N/126W IS MOVING
NEWD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW TODAY IN THE FORM OF A
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR BOI AT 15Z IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT STEADILY ENEWD AND
UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD INTO
CENTRAL MT.

AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH PW/S AROUND .5" AT BOI AND OTX THIS
MORNING...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE FOR AN AREA OF MARGINAL MLCAPE WITH ROBUST AFTERNOON HEATING.
IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
50+ KT H5 JET DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS ORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASED
DEEP ASCENT...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ORE NEWD INTO WRN MT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EAST OF THE DIVIDE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS GREATER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 50F LIKELY SURVIVING
STRONG AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR
NO CAPPING BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PART OF WRN/CENTRAL MT.
CAPPING WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN MT. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
LINES/CLUSTERS AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
STRONGER CELLS...WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO
WRN/N-CENTRAL MT LATER TODAY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY.

..SERN U.S AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THIS
AREA GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING. SHEAR
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AND SUPPORT
SHORT-LIVED/PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING SWD OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT BE OFFSET BY STRONGER SHEAR. ACROSS THIS AREA...STORMS
MAY BE A BIT LONGER-LIVED THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..MN...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE ROBUST
AND FARTHER NE THAN STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF 40+ SWLY
LLJ. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INCREASING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 06Z ACROSS FAR ERN SD/SERN ND INTO WRN/CENTRAL MN...WHERE
MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 50 KT
SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A THREAT OF
HAIL /SOME OF IT MARGINALLY SEVERE/ WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

.EVANS/LEVIT.. 05/12/2007

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KJAX [121452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 121452
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1052 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM WILDFIRE LAKE CITY 30.19N 82.64W
05/12/2007 COLUMBIA FL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL ACCIDENTS HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATES 10 AND 75
DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES. VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADS IS
NEAR ZERO. INTERSTATES 10 AND 75 ARE BEING CLOSED IN
COLUMBIA COUNTY.


&&

$$

MTRABERT

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KJAN [121444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 121444
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
944 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N BAXTERVILLE 31.17N 89.59W
05/11/2007 LAMAR MS PUBLIC

A TREE REPORTED DOWN ON BAY CREEK ROAD ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTH OF BAXTERVILLE REPORTED BY EMPLOYEE FROM KOUNTRY
KORNER STORE.


&&

$$

WESTER

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KJAN [121431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 121431
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
931 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HAIL 2 E OLOH 31.30N 89.56W
05/11/2007 E1.75 INCH LAMAR MS PUBLIC

EMPLOYEE FROM KEITHS SUPERSTORE REPORTED THAT SOMEONE
CAME INTO THE STORE THAT HAD EXPERIENCED GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL 2 MILES EAST OF OLOH...AND IT CRACKED HIS
WINDSHIELD.


&&

$$

WESTER

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KJAN [121423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 121423
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
923 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL CLAYTON 31.72N 91.54W
05/11/2007 E0.88 INCH CONCORDIA LA PUBLIC


&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [121405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 121405
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
905 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 6 ENE SIBLEY 31.41N 91.30W
05/11/2007 E0.75 INCH ADAMS MS PUBLIC


&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [121345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KJAN 121345
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
845 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL ARCHIE 31.58N 91.97W
05/11/2007 E0.75 INCH CATAHOULA LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY GAS STATION.


&&

$$

CME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121254
SWODY1
SPC AC 121252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PAC
NW INTO THE NRN HI PLNS...

..SYNOPSIS...
RCKYS RIDGE WILL EXPAND E INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE LWR GRT LKS/NERN STATES...AND WEAK TROUGH
FURTHER ELONGATES FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE NRN GULF. IN THE WEST...
SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING THE ORE CST SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO THE LWR
COLUMBIA VLY TODAY...BEFORE TURNING MORE ENE INTO ERN WA TONIGHT/
EARLY SUNDAY.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE S ACROSS THE OH VLY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. WRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY SHOULD EDGE NE ACROSS
ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS AS LEE LOW DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM
ORE/WA TROUGH. FARTHER W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR ERN ORE/WA LATE TODAY...AND
CONTINUE E ACROSS ID TONIGHT.

..INTERIOR PAC NW/NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF ORE/WA DISTURBANCE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NRN RCKYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...LIMITING LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. BUT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY E ACROSS
ORE/WA TOWARD ID/WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. COUPLED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...SETUP
SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD LATE AFTN/EVE STORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM NE ORE INTO CNTRL ID AND WRN MT.
DEEP 40+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF UPR IMPULSE WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY
..WHERE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
AND SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH
HAIL...COULD FORM IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
OVER ERN WA/NRN ID AND NRN MT.

..ERN MT/WRN SD...
SFC HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE CAPE INVOF WARM FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO SD. BUT INCREASING CIN
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SFC-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH SCTD ELEVATED ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL
PERSIST NE OF FRONT OVER SD AND PARTS OF ND/MN THROUGH THE PERIOD...
RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND...THEREFORE...CAPE...SUGGEST
THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.

..E TX THROUGH THE SERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SCTD DIURNAL TSTMS WILL FORM FROM THE APPALACHIANS SWD
INTO FL AND W INTO TX...WHERE POCKETS OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ON FRINGES OF WEAK UPR TROUGH. THE GREATEST
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS...THE LWR TN VLY AND
CNTRL FL. WEAK UPR FLOW IN THESE AREAS SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT...BUT PULSE STORMS COULD YIELD ISOLATED HAIL/WIND.
STORM COVERAGE IN FL MAY BE LIMITED BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN GULF TROUGH AND HYBRID SYSTEM OFF THE FL E CST.

FURTHER N...MODERATE /30 KT/ WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE MD/VA AREA AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH...WHERE SFC HEATING
MAY BOOST SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE A CLUSTER OR TWO OF
STRONG DIURNAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE.

.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2007

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KJAX [121203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 121203
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
803 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM WILDFIRE HOMERVILLE 31.04N 82.75W
05/12/2007 CLINCH GA TRAINED SPOTTER

U. S. HIGHWAY 441 HAS BEEN CLOSED FROM HOMERVILLE TO
FARGO DUE TO DENSE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES.


&&

$$

MTRABERT

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120836
SWOD48
SPC AC 120836

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

..DISCUSSION...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WELL MARKED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY4 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY SW OF THE MS RIVER. EVEN
THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS KY INTO SRN OH WILL DO SO ALONG
SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD. BEYOND DAY4...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE GULF STATES WHERE
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PULSE-MULTICELL
IN NATURE.

.DARROW.. 05/12/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120714
SWODY3
SPC AC 120713

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES...

..GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
U.S. DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD AS SEVERAL QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. WILL ENSURE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...TRAILING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BENEATH MUCH
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND FOR THAT MATTER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN
DUE TO ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA/FL COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AND MOISTEN BEFORE RETURNING
NWD AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE. IT APPEARS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM KS...NEWD INTO WI.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD 00Z. STRONGEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VEERING PROFILES
INTO CO MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT RISK TO STRONGER SHEARED PORTION OF COLD FRONT FROM NEB/IA
INTO WI/MI. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY ZONE FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIALLY MORE CONCENTRATED ZONE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION.

.DARROW.. 05/12/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120556
SWODY1
SPC AC 120555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NRN MT
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NRN ID...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE A
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ONSHORE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A SECOND TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE SERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS...THOUGH COLD FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST E OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM MT SEWD ACROSS SD SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..PARTS OF NRN ID INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND WRN MT...
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EWD. FURTHER W HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SPREAD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TOWARD ID/WRN MT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ONSHORE.

WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE CAPE VALUES FROM
ERN MT INTO THE SD...SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NERN SD AND
ADJACENT AREAS IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NE OF SHARPENING WARM
FRONT...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WEAK/ELEVATED NATURE OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

FARTHER W INTO WRN MT/NRN ID AND PERHAPS ERN OREGON...HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAK LARGE-SCALE UVV MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. COMBINATION OF 500 TO 750 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 40 TO 50 KT SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS TO DEVELOP -- WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NRN MT AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NRN ID...BUT WILL REMOVE THE SLIGHT RISK FROM ERN MT DUE TO
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING AND A GENERALLY DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE FORECAST
ACROSS THIS PART OF THE AREA.

..E TX EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NWD INTO VA/WV AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE APPALACHIANS SWD
INTO FL AND WWD INTO TX...AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST /60S
DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE.

GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES...THOUGH WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS.

FURTHER N...STRONGER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES -- APPROACHING THE
UPPER OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY FORECAST TO REMAIN MORE LIMITED ACROSS
THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...AND STRONGER FLOW FORECAST TO REMAIN NW
OF THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
HERE AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE/LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT AREA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN AND ERN CONUS.

.GOSS/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2007

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