Thursday, May 10, 2007

KBTV [102046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 102046
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
446 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM LIGHTNING MASSENA 44.93N 74.89W
05/10/2007 ST. LAWRENCE NY EMERGENCY MNGR

911 REPORTS CHURCH BURNING DOWN IN TOWN OF MASSENA DUE TO
LIGHTNING STRIKE


&&

$$

LAHIFF

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KMEG [102037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 102037
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
337 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL W RIPLEY 34.73N 88.94W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH TIPPAH MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL NEAR RIPLEY AIRPORT ON HWY 4

0215 PM FLASH FLOOD BLUE MOUNTAIN 34.67N 89.03W
05/10/2007 TIPPAH MS POST OFFICE

STANDING WATER ON MILL STREET.

0230 PM HAIL ECRU 34.36N 89.03W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH PONTOTOC MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0328 PM HAIL 4 E FULTON 34.26N 88.33W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH ITAWAMBA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

DSV

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KBGM [102032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBGM 102032
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM TSTM WND DMG WILLEYVILLE 42.03N 77.70W
05/10/2007 STEUBEN NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIRES DOWN.

1153 AM HAIL WHITESBORO 43.12N 75.30W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH ONEIDA NY PUBLIC

0121 PM HAIL PAINTED POST 42.16N 77.09W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH STEUBEN NY PUBLIC

0221 PM HAIL ELMIRA 42.09N 76.81W
05/10/2007 E0.25 INCH CHEMUNG NY PUBLIC

0250 PM HAIL AUBURN CENTER 41.68N 76.03W
05/10/2007 E2.75 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA EMERGENCY MNGR

0321 PM HAIL MONTROSE 41.83N 75.88W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

0340 PM HAIL NORWICH 42.53N 75.52W
05/10/2007 E0.25 INCH CHENANGO NY PUBLIC

0410 PM HAIL BINGHAMTON 42.10N 75.91W
05/10/2007 E0.25 INCH BROOME NY PUBLIC

0413 PM HAIL CHENANGO FORKS 42.23N 75.87W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH BROOME NY PUBLIC

0417 PM HAIL GREENE 42.33N 75.77W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH CHENANGO NY PUBLIC

0419 PM HAIL NORWICH 42.53N 75.52W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH CHENANGO NY PUBLIC


&&

$$

JAB

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KLWX [102022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 102022
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
421 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE PARTLOW 38.03N 77.63W
05/02/2007 SPOTSYLVANIA VA NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE DOWN.


&&
DELAYED REPORT.
$$

SMZ

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KSGF [102020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 102020
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 SW ANDERSON 36.55N 94.57W
05/10/2007 MCDONALD MO LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

JSS

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KICT [102020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 102020
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0316 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S SEDAN 37.10N 96.18W
05/10/2007 E4.00 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED VIA LAW ENFORCEMENT OF 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER 2 TO 3 MILES
SOUTH OF SEDAN.


&&

$$

CDB

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 265

WWUS20 KWNS 102017
SEL5
SPC WW 102017
IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-110300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM MDT THU MAY 10 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL IDAHO
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST OREGON

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF BAKER OREGON TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS
MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 264...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BOTH IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX FROM OREGON ENHANCING
SHEAR COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...PARTICULARLY
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS THAT EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


..HALES

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KSGF [102015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 102015
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM FLASH FLOOD CAMDENTON 38.01N 92.74W
05/10/2007 CAMDEN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS THROUGHOUT CAMDEN COUNTY HAVE
WATER FLOWING OVER THEM. A FEW OF THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS
ARE BLOCKED BY DEBRIS.


&&

$$

JSS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 102001
SWODY1
SPC AC 101959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN
STATES...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN/SERN TX...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...

..NERN STATES...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF COLD
FRONT OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY AND PA...AS WELL AS FARTHER TO THE E
OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY. 18Z ALB SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
REGIONAL VWPS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SHOW THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-35
KT AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT SHEAR OVER WRN INTO CNTRL NY.

GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT A LARGELY MULTICELLULAR OR LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND SEVERE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND STABILIZE.

..NRN ROCKIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH NERN ORE. A SLOW INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NERN ID INTO SWRN MT AND NWRN WY. BOTH 12Z
REGIONAL AND 18Z BOI OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS
OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500-1000
J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.

45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SHIFTING
EWD THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORM INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FROM
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL ID PNHDL EWD ALONG
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY INTO SWRN AND S-CNTRL MT. SEVERE THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT THIS EVENING...PRIOR
TO DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 768.

..SRN/SERN TX...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL TX WITH
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THUS FAR...DEEPER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU...UPSTREAM FROM
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TX COAST AS THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVES/DEVELOPS INTO
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CURRENT LEDBETTER PROFILER
SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS /SOME
SPLITTING/ WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER/MID TX COAST
AND S TX THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 769.

.MEAD.. 05/10/2007

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KALY [102000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 102000
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL LONG LAKE 43.97N 74.42W
05/10/2007 E1.50 INCH HAMILTON NY POST OFFICE


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0769

ACUS11 KWNS 101956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101956
TXZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101956Z - 102200Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS S CNTRL AND SERN TX AND MOVE
SEWD INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

A WELL DEFINED OCCLUDED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL TX. VORT
MAX ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED JUST EAST
OF SAN ANGELO MOVING SEWD. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS RATHER WEAK.
HOWEVER...NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST INCLUDING ONE THAT EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL TX SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL TX NEAR HONDO. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
80S...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST IN THIS REGION WITH 6.5
C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ALONG WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COLDER
AIR ALOFT EXISTS. FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM IS RATHER WEAK...BUT
A BAND OF 40 KT WLY TO NWLY 500 MB WINDS EXIST ON THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS S CNTRL AND S TX. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP MID LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
SEWD MOVING CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITHIN REGION OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SEWD ADVANCING VORT MAX ACROSS S CNTRL TX. MOST STORMS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN MULTICELL IN CHARACTER...BUT SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DIAL.. 05/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

28499642 28079811 28299971 29429990 30179824 31289697
30979517 29559482

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KSGF [101950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 101950
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM FLOOD 4 S NEVADA 37.78N 94.35W
05/10/2007 VERNON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTERSECTION OF BB AND STOCKADE REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.

0223 PM FLOOD FORT SCOTT 37.84N 94.71W
05/10/2007 BOURBON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LITTLE OSAGE RIVER CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER 7 HIGHWAY
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 31 AND HARDING ROAD. ROAD STILL CLOSED.

0223 PM FLOOD XENIA 38.00N 94.99W
05/10/2007 BOURBON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PORTIONS OF 65 HIGHWAY NEAR TOWN OF XENIA STILL CLOSED
DUE TO WATER OVER ROADWAY.

0228 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S DIXON 37.96N 92.09W
05/10/2007 PULASKI MO TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER O HIGHWAY AT JONES CREEK.


&&

$$

JSS

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KMEG [101948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 101948
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
248 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL W RIPLEY 34.73N 88.94W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH TIPPAH MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL NEAR RIPLEY AIRPORT ON HWY 4

0215 PM FLASH FLOOD BLUE MOUNTAIN 34.67N 89.03W
05/10/2007 TIPPAH MS POST OFFICE

STANDING WATER ON MILL STREET.

0230 PM HAIL ECRU 34.36N 89.03W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH PONTOTOC MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

TAB

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KHUN [101939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 101939
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HAIL RUSSELLVILLE 34.51N 87.73W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH FRANKLIN AL DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AT INTERSECTION OF US 43 AND AL 24.

0120 PM HAIL N RUSSELLVILLE 34.51N 87.73W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH FRANKLIN AL BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

BCC

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KLSX [101937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 101937
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
237 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM HAIL COLLINSVILLE 38.68N 90.00W
05/10/2007 M1.00 INCH MADISON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL IN COLLINSVILLE...RANGING FROM
PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

CVKING

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KSHV [101931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 101931
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM HAIL MAGNOLIA 33.27N 93.24W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH COLUMBIA AR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

03

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KTFX [101928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 101928
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
128 PM MDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL 12 W WHITEHALL 45.87N 112.35W
05/10/2007 M0.75 INCH JEFFERSON MT PUBLIC

HAM OPTR RPD PENNY SIZED HAIL. LITTLE RAIN/WIND. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING

0125 PM HAIL 12 W WHITEHALL 45.87N 112.35W
05/10/2007 M1.00 INCH JEFFERSON MT PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RPTD BY HAM
RADIO OPTR


&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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KSGF [101909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 101909
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
208 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N VIENNA 38.22N 91.95W
05/10/2007 M1.63 INCH MARIES MO CO-OP OBSERVER

1.63 INCHES IN 45 MINUTES.


&&

$$

JSS

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KICT [101906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 101906
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
206 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0204 PM HAIL 1 SE HAVANA 37.08N 95.93W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH MONTGOMERY KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

REC

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KBOX [101844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 101844
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
244 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0239 PM HAIL CHARLEMONT 42.63N 72.88W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH FRANKLIN MA AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

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KMEG [101841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 101841
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
141 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL W RIPLEY 34.73N 88.94W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH TIPPAH MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL NEAR RIPLEY AIRPORT ON HWY 4


&&

$$

MRM

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KCTP [101841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 101841
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL MILL HALL 41.10N 77.49W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH CLINTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL

0214 PM HAIL LOCK HAVEN 41.14N 77.45W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH CLINTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED AT LOCK HAVEN AIRPORT

0215 PM HAIL COGAN STATION 41.31N 77.03W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH LYCOMING PA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MMD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0768

ACUS11 KWNS 101831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101830
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-102100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...CENTRAL/NERN ID...FAR NWRN WY AND
PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101830Z - 102100Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 2-3
HRS. ISOLATED SVR WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE
THEN.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SVRL AREAS OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES...WITH THE PRIMARY SFC LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ID
MTNS. RECENT TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THIS SFC LOW WAS
DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL ORE. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH A SFC
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS /CO-LOCATED WITH EARLIER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME AND SHOWERS/ EXTENDED WSW-ENE FROM NERN ORE INTO
WCENTRAL MT. ALONG THIS AXIS...DEWPTS ARE IN THE 48-52 DEG F RANGE.
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS..SBCAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 1200-1700 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS.
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVERSPREADING THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SFC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR
WRN MT /NEAR MSO/ TO JUST NORTH OF YELLOWSTONE AND EWD ALONG THE
MT/WY BORDER. ENELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOWLY DEEPENING MOIST LAYER WITH SFC
DEWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 44-48 DEG F RANGE BY 21Z. THIS
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MUCAPES RISING TO
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER
CENTRAL/SCENTRAL MT AND FAR NWRN WY...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DEEPER
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED DMGG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA AS TSTMS MOVE EWD FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/WRN MT.

.CROSBIE.. 05/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT...

46391446 45601695 44781829 43911824 43471740 43591509
43441190 44090897 45230797 47300830 47680944

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KALY [101827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 101827
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
227 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL CAIRO 42.31N 74.01W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH GREENE NY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KALY [101821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 101821
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
221 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL GALLUPVILLE 42.66N 74.23W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH SCHOHARIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KCTP [101821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 101821
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
220 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL MILL HALL 41.10N 77.49W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH CLINTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL

0215 PM HAIL COGAN STATION 41.31N 77.03W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH LYCOMING PA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MMD

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KCTP [101820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 101820
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
220 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL COGAN STATION 41.31N 77.03W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH LYCOMING PA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MMD

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KBTV [101816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 101816
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
215 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL BRASHER FALLS 44.80N 74.79W
05/10/2007 E1.25 INCH ST. LAWRENCE NY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

REPORT FROM HIGHWAY GARAGE. ALSO STRONG WINDS...BUT
STRENGTH UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

BANACOS

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KALY [101813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 101813
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM HAIL CARLISLE 42.76N 74.45W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH SCHOHARIE NY COUNTY OFFICIAL

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE


&&

$$

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KCTP [101809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 101809
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL MILL HALL 41.10N 77.49W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH CLINTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

MMD

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KSGF [101741]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 101741
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W ELDON 38.35N 92.62W
05/10/2007 MILLER MO EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 52 AND Y
HIGHWAY


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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KBTV [101735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 101735
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL COLTON 44.55N 74.94W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH ST. LAWRENCE NY POST OFFICE


&&

$$

BANACOS

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KBGM [101728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBGM 101728
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM TSTM WND DMG WILLEYVILLE 42.03N 77.70W
05/10/2007 STEUBEN NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIRES DOWN.

1153 AM HAIL WHITESBORO 43.12N 75.30W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH ONEIDA NY PUBLIC

0121 PM HAIL PAINTED POST 42.16N 77.09W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH STEUBEN NY PUBLIC


&&

$$

JAB

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KTSA [101707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 101707
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM FLOOD 13 E TULSA 36.13N 95.69W
05/07/2007 WAGONER OK PUBLIC

SPUNKY CREEK AT 11TH STREET FLOODED IN WESTERN WAGONER
COUNTY.

1145 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N DEWEY 36.85N 95.94W
05/06/2007 E60.00 MPH WASHINGTON OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101704
SWODY2
SPC AC 101703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
STATES AND CANADA THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD...TO THE N OF
AMPLIFYING RIDGE-TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES EWD
THROUGH SERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME FROM THE
MID MO VALLEY INTO NRN ROCKIES.

..CNTRL/ERN SD...

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHETHER DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR ALONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND RESULTANT CAPPING ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
NERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL ALONG/S OF BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS
LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID 50S. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST...LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG.

MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING
TO 40-50 KT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR DEVELOPING FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. CURRENTLY...IT
APPEARS THAT MAJORITY OF WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOULD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ATTM...THIS THREAT IS
TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK.

..WRN MT...

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR INITIATION IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...THOUGH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL WITH ANY OF THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED...STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL.

..CNTRL GULF COAST INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY BENEATH RATHER COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ ATTENDANT TO UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SEWD. THIS THERMAL/MOISTURE STRATIFICATION WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES 2000-2500
J PER KG/ WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.

WHILE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED...SOME POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WET
MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.MEAD.. 05/10/2007

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KBGM [101643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 101643
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1243 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM TSTM WND DMG WILLEYVILLE 42.03N 77.70W
05/10/2007 STEUBEN NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIRES DOWN.

1153 AM HAIL WHITESBORO 43.12N 75.30W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH ONEIDA NY PUBLIC


&&

$$

JAB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101624
SWODY1
SPC AC 101622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF PA/NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN ORE INTO SOUTHERN MT...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...

..NERN U.S...
UPR LOW WRN NY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A TROUGH
REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
ZONE STRETCHING FROM ERN LAKE ONTARIO SWWD INTO ERN OH CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG
ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF LOW 80S ARE REACHED. INITIALLY
SHEAR IN THIS WARM SECTOR IS WEAK AS REFLECTED BY 12Z ALB SOUNDING.
HOWEVER AS UPR LOW MOVES EWD MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30KT BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SURFACE
BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL
ZONE WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLY LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM 8-9K FEET. LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ALSO
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER OVERALL WEAK
SHEAR PRECLUDES AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..INTERIOR PAC NW INTO SRN MT...
MDT WSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM PAC NW EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AS
MID LEVEL WIND MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW WRN OREGON
MOVES ACROSS NRN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM 7.5-8 C/KM IN PLACE VICINITY AND TO S OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
WHICH STRETCHES FROM SCENTRAL MT TO CENTRAL ID AND THEN ACROSS NRN
OR. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH PW'S TO .7 INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING TO RAISE SBCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON TO AROUND 1000
J/KG FROM NERN OR TO SWRN MT. SCATTERED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS FROM RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STORMS.
AS UPPER WIND MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MT THIS EVENING...STORMS COULD
DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINES SEGMENTS/BOWS AND INCREASE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SRN MT.

..SRN TEXAS...
INITIALLY INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW
LOCATED OVER NWRN TX. LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD INTO SERN TX
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WHILE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT ACROSS S
TX WILL NEVERTHELESS TRANSPORT MOISTURE NEWD WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRONG HEATING LEAD TO GOOD DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL RANGE DOWNWARD FROM AROUND
2000 J/KG CRP CWA TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SERN TX. WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO 30-40KT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SUPPORTING BOTH CLUSTERS
AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURSTS WITH GREATER POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN
DEVELOP.

.HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/10/2007

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KCHS [101624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 101624
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1224 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 9 SE HALFMOON LANDING 31.61N 81.17W
05/10/2007 LIBERTY GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

MODERATE BEACH EROSION DURING LAST FEW HIGH TIDES ON ST
CATHERINES ISLAND. 20-30 CM OF SAND REMOVED FROM BEACH
BUT DUNES WERE UNHARMED. REPORT FROM ST CATHERINES ISLAND
SEA TURTLE CONSERVATION PROGRAM.


&&

$$

LAMB

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 264

WWUS20 KWNS 101622
SEL4
SPC WW 101622
NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-110000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WESTERN VERMONT

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BURLINGTON VERMONT TO 25 MILES WEST OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG COLD
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EWD THROUGH NY AND PA AS WELL AS
IN WARM SECTOR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.


..DIAL/HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0767

ACUS11 KWNS 101548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101548
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-101745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NY AND PA THROUGH WRN VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101548Z - 101745Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL
AND ERN NY AND PA AND SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF VT. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA.

A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL NY FROM NEAR FORT
DRUM SWD TO JUST EAST OF BINGHAMTON THEN SWWD INTO NERN PA. FARTHER
W A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND SWRN PA.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH 7 C/KM IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF PA AND SRN NY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERN GREAT LAKES VORT MAX. HOWEVER...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND MAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELL
AND LINEAR STORMS.

.DIAL.. 05/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

44707266 42217348 41327528 40017712 40157819 41107777
42837669 43237596 44437528

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KRAH [101329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KRAH 101329
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
928 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0503 PM HAIL NNE GORMAN 36.04N 78.81W
05/09/2007 M0.75 INCH DURHAM NC TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED A FEW MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
GORMAN.

0510 PM HAIL 3 SW BUTNER 36.10N 78.81W
05/09/2007 E0.75 INCH GRANVILLE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEAR THE DURHAM COUNTY LINE.

0553 PM HAIL 6 SE ROXBORO 36.34N 78.90W
05/09/2007 E1.00 INCH PERSON NC PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC IN COMMUNITY OF
SURL... 6 MILES SE OF ROXBORO

0558 PM TSTM WND DMG SILER CITY 35.72N 79.46W
05/09/2007 CHATHAM NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES DOWN ON E. RALEIGH ST.

0820 PM HAIL 2 S NEW LONDON 35.41N 80.22W
05/09/2007 E0.75 INCH STANLY NC AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED AT NEW LONDON HIGH SCHOOL ON HIGHWAY 52.


&&

$$

ORROCK

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KRAH [101328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 101328
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
928 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 3 SW BUTNER 36.10N 78.81W
05/09/2007 E0.75 INCH GRANVILLE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEAR THE DURHAM COUNTY LINE.

0820 PM HAIL 2 S NEW LONDON 35.41N 80.22W
05/09/2007 E0.75 INCH STANLY NC AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED AT NEW LONDON HIGH SCHOOL ON HIGHWAY 52.


&&

$$

ORROCK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101233
SWODY1
SPC AC 101231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF PA/NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN ORE INTO EASTERN
MT...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX...

..PA/NY/VT/MA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS COMPACT UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES. EARLY VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ARE LIKELY. RATHER STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF PA/NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL NY INTO CENTRAL PA...AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF MD/WV/VA. RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE
A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO AID IN DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN MA AND VT
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

..ORE/ID/MT...
RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET MAX IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ORE THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER
TOP OF RIDGE INTO ID AND MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVELY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
REGION WITH POCKETS OF MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
ORE/CENTRAL ID AND WESTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY
WILL POSE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY EARLY EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. BACKED AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE RISK OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE ND BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...
WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER TX THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH RATHER STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE LESSENED ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POCKET OF MID 60S
DEWPOINTS REMAINS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TX GULF COAST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL TX BY MID
AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS OVER THIS AREA.

..MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
AR/MS/LA AND NORTHWARD TOWARD STL. AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WEAK CAP WILL AID IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OVER AR...VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 1500 J/KG WILL ALLOW ISOLATED MULTICELL STORMS TO BECOME QUITE
STRONG...WITH A RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.

.HART/JEWELL.. 05/10/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100858
SWOD48
SPC AC 100858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

..GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
THE BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE NRN
PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN
STATES. AT THE SFC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO FORECAST WHERE ANY ENHANCED SEVERE THREATS MAY EXIST IN THE DAY 4
TO 8 PERIOD.

.BROYLES.. 05/10/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100729
SWODY3
SPC AC 100728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

..NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NRN ROCKIES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS A
SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THESE FACTORS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY EXPANDING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIST FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE...INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.
ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION.

..ERN GULF COAST STATES/ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SERN STATES
SATURDAY AND MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. ANY MARGINAL THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND CONCENTRATED
AROUND PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 05/10/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100558
SWODY2
SPC AC 100556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD AND SW
MN...

..NRN PLAINS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING THE WESTERLIES NWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BRINGING A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
AND MOVE EWD INTO SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THIS
LOW...INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE WWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS INTO NRN WY...SERN MT AND INTO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES.

A 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON CREATING STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SD AND WRN MN. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SHOW STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL ATTM.

..LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EAST TX IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. AT
LOW-LEVELS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY FRIDAY AND POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.

.BROYLES.. 05/10/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100522
SWODY1
SPC AC 100520

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN TX...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN
STATES...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE PAC NW ALONG
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK/EMBEDDED FEATURES
FORECAST TO AFFECT BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THEN WWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA SHOULD LINGER/SLOWLY
WEAKEN OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST STATEMENTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

..SRN PORTIONS OF TX...
DAYTIME HEATING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS S TX WILL ALLOW
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS TX
THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX.

THOUGH GENERALLY PULSE-TYPE STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM CENTRAL AND
INTO NERN TX...BELT OF STRONGER WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 40
KT/ S OF UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS S TX -- RESULTING IN
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION.

..NERN OREGON/SERN WA EWD ACROSS MT...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ENHANCED BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW -- NOW
APPROACHING THE NRN CA/SWRN OREGON COAST -- SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS
OREGON AND INTO ID/MT THROUGH THE DAY...ABOVE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THOUGH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...500 TO 750 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP AS
DAYTIME HEATING MAXIMIZES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY...LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/ERN OREGON EWD INTO MT.

DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. THOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THREAT SHOULD LINGER/SHIFT EWD ACROSS MT THROUGH
THE EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

..PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NY/PA DURING THE
DAY...AS COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING ON SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE...SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 30 KT...EXPECT PRIMARY STORM MODE TO BE
MULTICELLULAR AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES. STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...AS STORMS SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

.GOSS/JEWELL.. 05/10/2007

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KSHV [100517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KSHV 100517
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL SMITHVILLE 34.47N 94.65W
05/09/2007 E0.75 INCH MCCURTAIN OK POST OFFICE

POST OFFICE REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
IN SMITHVILLE.

0215 PM HAIL 1 N MOUNT PLEASANT 33.18N 94.98W
05/09/2007 E0.75 INCH TITUS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF TOWN.

0359 PM HAIL STRONG 33.11N 92.36W
05/09/2007 E1.00 INCH UNION AR POST OFFICE

0403 PM HAIL JONESBORO 32.24N 92.71W
05/09/2007 E0.88 INCH JACKSON LA TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE HOMER 32.77N 92.98W
05/09/2007 CLAIBORNE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO TREES DOWN ON LAKE CLAIBORNE REPORTED BY OFF DUTY
DEPUTY.

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMER 32.79N 93.06W
05/09/2007 CLAIBORNE LA AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN CITY LIMITS

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMER 32.79N 93.06W
05/09/2007 CLAIBORNE LA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE CITY LIMITS...BELLA
VISTA AND LA HWY 2


&&

$$

15

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 262

WWUS20 KWNS 100403
SEL2
SPC WW 100403
TXZ000-100400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262 ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 263

WWUS20 KWNS 100403
SEL3
SPC WW 100403
TXZ000-100400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 263 ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

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