Sunday, August 4, 2013

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040555
SWODY2
SPC AC 040554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN AUG 04 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND WRN NEB...ERN
WY...WRN SD...SERN MT AND NERN CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM SRN MN AND IA MON MORNING
SEWD INTO NRN IL BY 00Z AS A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION WITH EARLY STORMS LIKELY. TO THE
S...ANOTHER AREA OF EARLY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM ERN KS INTO NERN
OK...SRN MO...AND NRN AR. BOTH AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME FROM MN SWD INTO KS.

TO THE W...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN MT WITH LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO CO/KS...BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
FAVOR AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS.

LATER IN THE DAY...A MORE INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...WHICH WILL ENHANCE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME. A
SECONDARY BATCH OF SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN
MT/WY INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND WIND.

...SERN MT...WRN SD AND NEB...ERN WY....NERN CO...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL FROM
SERN MT INTO WRN NEB. OTHER HAIL AND WIND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SD AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET
ARE MAXIMIZED WITH A SEVERE MCS LIKELY.

...SRN MN...WRN WI...IA...NRN IL...
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY STORMS...AREAS OF HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ELONGATE
HODOGRAPHS WHICH WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL. DUE TO WEAK FORCING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED.

...KS INTO MO...
EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS
INTO SWRN MO AND HEATING SW OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT
OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AS WARM SWLY FLOW IMPINGES ON
THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE HOT SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND AREAS OF HAIL. STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EVENING MAY ALLOW THESE STORMS TO PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 08/04/2013

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 040532
FFGMPD
KSZ000-OKZ000-040830-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0192
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 040530Z - 040830Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING AND LOCALLY TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FOSTER SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INCLUDING SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION OVER SERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM AND ESP INTO S CNTRL
AREAS OF KS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN NATURE AND TO
THE NORTH OF A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED FROM NERN NM AND OUT
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND GENERALLY EAST NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER.

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE AND SOME SUBTLE
VEERING OF THE SRLY LOW LVL JET ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
ATTM...WITH ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 30 KTS INTERACTING WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THIS INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION AND A
WELL-DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT INVOF THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND BECOME ORIENTED
GENERALLY W/E TO THE NORTH OF THE BNDRY. MUCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND EVEN HIGHER VALUES FARTHER SOUTH
OVER CNTRL OK WERE NOTED LAST HOUR.

THE MEAN LYR FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE BNDRY...AND RATHER
WEAK...ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGESTING A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.

RAINFALL RATES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR AND WITH THE
SLOW-MOVEMENT AND CONCERN FOR SOME W/E ORIENTED TRAINING NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...THERE MAY BE SOME SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON 37159539 36999648 37129779 37299850 37419913 37459937
37489958 37500033 37420146 37750189 38180166 38330108
38459996 38849841 38689693 38379603 37849528 37159539

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KCYS [040516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KCYS 040516
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1116 PM MDT SAT AUG 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 8 SSE BUFORD 41.00N 105.24W
08/03/2013 E0.75 INCH LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

HAIL DURATION 20 MINUTES.

0233 PM HAIL 19 W CHEYENNE 41.14N 105.16W
08/03/2013 M1.50 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0235 PM HAIL 8 WSW CHEYENNE 41.10N 104.93W
08/03/2013 E0.75 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

VERY STRONG WINDS ALSO

0308 PM HAIL 15 NW CHEYENNE 41.30N 105.00W
08/03/2013 M1.00 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FELL AT MILE MARKER 13 ON HORSE CREEK ROAD.

0310 PM HAIL 11 SE HORSE CREEK 41.30N 105.03W
08/03/2013 M1.75 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL BETWEEN ONE INCH AND GOLF BALL FELL AT THIS
LOCATION.

0310 PM HAIL 1 N FEDERAL 41.28N 105.10W
08/03/2013 M1.75 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WAS ACCOMPANED BY 70 MPH WINDS. THE WIND DRIVEN HAIL
BROKE WINDOWS AND SKYLIGHTS.

0310 PM HAIL 12 SSE HORSE CREEK 41.25N 105.09W
08/03/2013 E1.00 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME JUST A BIT SMALLER THAN A PING PONG BALL

0319 PM HAIL 8 S FEDERAL 41.15N 105.10W
08/03/2013 E0.75 INCH LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

0330 PM HAIL 1 NW FEDERAL 41.28N 105.11W
08/03/2013 E2.75 INCH LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

0339 PM HAIL 2 ESE FEDERAL 41.26N 105.06W
08/03/2013 E1.25 INCH LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

0417 PM HAIL 7 N LARAMIE 41.41N 105.58W
08/03/2013 E0.50 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN ALSO.

0504 PM HAIL 7 SW WHEATLAND 41.98N 105.06W
08/03/2013 E0.25 INCH PLATTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0505 PM HAIL 8 SW WHEATLAND 41.97N 105.07W
08/03/2013 E0.50 INCH PLATTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN.

0524 PM HAIL 4 N WHEATLAND 42.11N 104.96W
08/03/2013 E0.50 INCH PLATTE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

SOME PEA SIZED ALSO.

0644 PM HAIL 18 W CHEYENNE 41.14N 105.14W
08/03/2013 E1.75 INCH LARAMIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

SOME LARGER. BROKE WINDOWS.


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KBYZ [040503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBYZ 040503
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1103 PM MDT SAT AUG 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 1 E BRANDENBERG 45.82N 106.23W
08/03/2013 E0.75 INCH ROSEBUD MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 5 N TONGUE RIVER RESERV 45.15N 106.80W
08/03/2013 E60.00 MPH BIG HORN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM HAIL 3 SE STACEY 45.67N 105.90W
08/03/2013 E1.25 INCH POWDER RIVER MT COCORAHS

0615 PM HAIL 3 SSE DECKER 44.98N 106.85W
08/03/2013 E1.75 INCH SHERIDAN WY COCORAHS

0615 PM HAIL 5 N TONGUE RIVER RESERV 45.15N 106.80W
08/03/2013 E1.00 INCH BIG HORN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0635 PM HAIL 7 NNE DECKER 45.11N 106.81W
08/03/2013 E1.00 INCH BIG HORN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0657 PM HAIL 10 S STACEY 45.56N 105.91W
08/03/2013 E1.75 INCH POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0713 PM HAIL 4 SSW OLIVE 45.50N 105.55W
08/03/2013 E1.75 INCH POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 SW BROADUS 45.41N 105.45W
08/03/2013 POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM TORNADO 3 SSW BROADUS 45.40N 105.43W
08/03/2013 POWDER RIVER MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD BROADUS 45.44N 105.41W
08/03/2013 POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 PM HAIL 9 N LEITER 44.85N 106.27W
08/03/2013 E1.00 INCH SHERIDAN WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0720 PM HAIL 5 SSW BROADUS 45.38N 105.45W
08/03/2013 E4.25 INCH POWDER RIVER MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

0730 PM HAIL 20 NW MILES CITY 46.61N 106.14W
08/03/2013 E1.00 INCH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 PM HAIL 9 S BROADUS 45.31N 105.41W
08/03/2013 E1.50 INCH POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 PM TORNADO 9 S BROADUS 45.31N 105.41W
08/03/2013 POWDER RIVER MT PUBLIC

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN RURAL AREA

0759 PM TSTM WND GST 10 N BIDDLE 45.25N 105.32W
08/03/2013 E65.00 MPH POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0759 PM HAIL 10 N BIDDLE 45.25N 105.32W
08/03/2013 E2.50 INCH POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM HAIL MILES CITY 46.41N 105.84W
08/03/2013 E0.88 INCH CUSTER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM HAIL 1 S TUSLER 46.47N 105.75W
08/03/2013 E1.25 INCH CUSTER MT PUBLIC

0830 PM HAIL 3 E TUSLER 46.48N 105.70W
08/03/2013 E1.75 INCH CUSTER MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ACR

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KBYZ [040428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 040428
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1028 PM MDT SAT AUG 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 SW BROADUS 45.41N 105.45W
08/03/2013 POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$



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KPUB [040418]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 040418
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1018 PM MDT SAT AUG 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 S TRINIDAD 37.08N 104.51W
08/03/2013 M2.20 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO MESONET

1 HOUR TOTAL. EXIT 8 I-25. CODOT STATION.


&&

$$

PJC

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