KTOP [080454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 080454
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1054 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1049 PM HAIL 6 NE TALMAGE 39.09N 97.18W
03/07/2009 E0.88 INCH DICKINSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KTOP [080453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 080453
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1053 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1046 PM HAIL ENE ALLEN 38.66N 96.17W
03/07/2009 E0.75 INCH LYON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KICT [080452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 080452
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1052 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 PM HAIL 4 E PEABODY 38.17N 97.03W
03/07/2009 E1.75 INCH MARION KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND BETWEEN
70TH AND 80TH AND TIMBER ROAD.

&&

$$

BDK

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KEAX [080447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 080447
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1047 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM HAIL KANSAS CITY 39.12N 94.55W
03/07/2009 M0.88 INCH JACKSON MO AMATEUR RADIO

NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT INTERSTATE 70 AND BLUE RIDGE.

&&

$$

GAMIS

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KEAX [080443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 080443
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1043 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1038 PM HAIL LIBERTY 39.24N 94.42W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH CLAY MO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DUX

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KDVN [080443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 080443
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1043 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N GENESEO 41.46N 90.15W
03/07/2009 M1.30 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 10 PM.

&&

$$

ERVIN

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KEAX [080442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 080442
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1042 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 PM HAIL INDEPENDENCE 39.48N 94.98W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH PLATTE MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

GAMIS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0203

ACUS11 KWNS 080427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080426
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-080630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO AND INTO ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL AND VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46...

VALID 080426Z - 080630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 46.

STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING EWD OUT OF ERN KS AND
INTO NWRN MO -- ACROSS NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF WW 46. IN
ADDITION...STORMS JUST ENE OF THE WATCH -- OVER PARTS OF W CENTRAL
IL AND VICINITY -- CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ATTM FROM S CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN
MO...NEAR AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL JET
VEERS WITH TIME -- RESULTING IN MODEST ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS NERN MO AND INTO W CENTRAL IL WITH TIME...SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY THAT A NEW WW BECOMES A POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- TO
CONTINUE ACROSS WW 46...WITH PRIMARY THREAT TO REMAIN HAIL.

..GOSS.. 03/08/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38009528 39489505 40399292 40739008 40078873 39009234
38009528

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KDVN [080422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 080422
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1022 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM HAIL MACOMB 40.47N 90.68W
03/07/2009 M0.25 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

DLF

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KCYS [080417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 080417
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/07/2009 M59 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST AT 44 MPH

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/07/2009 M57 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 45 MPH

&&

$$

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KICT [080416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 080416
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1016 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM HAIL BURRTON 38.02N 97.67W
03/07/2009 E0.88 INCH HARVEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BDK

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KDVN [080416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 080416
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1016 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1014 PM HAIL 1 NE MACOMB 40.48N 90.67W
03/07/2009 E0.25 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

DLF

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KLBF [080408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 080408
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1008 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM SNOW 10 NNE OSHKOSH 41.54N 102.27W
03/07/2009 M4.5 INCH GARDEN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MPOWER

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KICT [080359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KICT 080359
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
959 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TORNADO 5 NE ATTICA 37.29N 98.16W
03/07/2009 HARPER KS STORM CHASER

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN WITH SMALL DEBRIS CLOUD. CORRECTED TIME
AND LOCATION.

&&

$$

BDK

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 47

WWUS20 KWNS 080351
SEL7
SPC WW 080351
KSZ000-080800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 47
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 45. WATCH NUMBER 45 WILL NOT BE
IN EFFECT AFTER 950 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 46...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT FROM S CENTRAL INTO E CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A 50 KT LLJ AND EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOCUS ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT AND SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NEWD INTO MO BY ABOUT 09Z. INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.

...THOMPSON

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KGRR [080337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 080337
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1037 PM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS IS THE DAILY RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

$$

HOVING

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KTOP [080331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 080331
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
931 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0928 PM HAIL 2 NNE MELVERN LAKE 38.52N 95.78W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY PENNY SIZE HAIL...ACCUMULATED ABOUT 1 INCH DEEP.

&&

$$

CAVANAUGH

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KTOP [080329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 080329
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
929 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0928 PM HAIL 1 W OLIVET 38.48N 95.78W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KSEW [071844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 071844
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1044 AM PST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PORT TOWNSEND 48.14N 122.81W
03/07/2009 M51.00 MPH JEFFERSON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WIND 37 MPH, GUST TO 51 MPH.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KPUB [071843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 071843
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
03/07/2009 M9.0 INCH MINERAL CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0928 AM SNOW 11 NNE CRESTONE 38.13N 105.58W
03/07/2009 M3.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1037 AM SNOW 5 NE COLORADO SPRINGS 38.88N 104.74W
03/07/2009 M1.0 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 AM SNOW 2 S CUCHARA 37.36N 105.10W
03/07/2009 M3.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
9.00 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS CO MINERAL 0607 AM
3.00 2 S CUCHARA CO HUERFANO 1040 AM
3.00 11 NNE CRESTONE CO CUSTER 0928 AM
1.00 5 NE COLORADO SPRINGS CO EL PASO 1037 AM

$$

MN

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KPUB [071843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 071843
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
03/07/2009 M9.0 INCH MINERAL CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0928 AM SNOW 11 NNE CRESTONE 38.13N 105.58W
03/07/2009 M3.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1037 AM SNOW 5 NE COLORADO SPRINGS 38.88N 104.74W
03/07/2009 M1.0 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 AM SNOW 2 S CUCHARA 37.36N 105.10W
03/07/2009 M3.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KDVN [071811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 071811
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1211 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 AM HAIL BIGGSVILLE 40.85N 90.86W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH HENDERSON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

0300 AM HAIL GLADSTONE 40.86N 90.96W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH HENDERSON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

STEVEK

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KPUB [071740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 071740
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1040 AM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM SNOW 2 S CUCHARA 37.36N 105.10W
03/07/2009 M3.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KPUB [071738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 071738
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM SNOW 5 NE COLORADO SPRINGS 38.88N 104.74W
03/07/2009 M1.0 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KDVN [071738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 071738
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1136 AM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 42.64N 91.40W
03/07/2009 M1.07 INCH DELAWARE IA CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR. AREA CREEKS RUNNING 3/4 FULL.

&&

$$

JH2

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071700
SWODY2
SPC AC 071658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY TWO PERIOD. THIS REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN INTENSIFYING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND THE RESULTANT NEWD
TRANSLATION OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NERN MO WILL DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY WHILE DEVELOPING ENEWD INTO NRN IND BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW.
MEANWHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS. SWRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX BEFORE LIFTING NWD/NWWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...OZARK PLATEAU INTO OH VALLEY...

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW OVER NERN MO SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SWRN MO AND
PERHAPS NWRN AR. EWD MIGRATION OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN SYSTEM WARM
SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER
60S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT AND SOME CLOUD
BREAKS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG.

THE INITIAL PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER AND IN THE LOW LEVELS/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF MO INTO NRN AR.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD
INTO PARTS OF IL/IND BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF SURFACE LOW TRACK.
HERE...SIMULATED GOES WATER VAPOR DATA SUGGEST THAT MIDLEVEL DRY
SLOT ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT...POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

THUS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING
STRUCTURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG COLD
FRONT INTO WRN PARTS OF KY/TN...ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EWD INTO THE UPPER OH AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH TIME SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT.

...ARKLATEX...

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SUNDAY WITH THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER SYSTEM AWAY FROM
THE REGION. NONETHELESS...POTENTIALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING
/COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NE/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY DESPITE LOWER TO
MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE
OFFSET BY MODESTLY STRONG /45-60 KT/ MIDLEVEL FLOW WHICH COULD
ENHANCE ANY MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH SOME HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 03/07/2009

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KPUB [071628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 071628
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
928 AM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0928 AM SNOW 11 NNE CRESTONE 38.13N 105.58W
03/07/2009 M3.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071619
SWODY1
SPC AC 071615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...

...PORTIONS OF OK/KS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES WELL DEFINED SYSTEM ALREADY EJECTING
ACROSS ERN CO...WITH TRAILING IMPULSE DIGGING TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. TRAILING/STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL EJECT ENEWD AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED FROM
VICINITY LAKE ERIE WSWWD INTO NRN MO AND SWRN KS WHERE A LOW WILL
DEEPEN TODAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK GENERALLY ENEWD INTO CENTRAL
MO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATING ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS THIS REGION AS 90+
KT MID LEVEL JET /130+ KT H25 SPEED MAX/ ACCOMPANIES EJECTING TROUGH
ACROSS OK BY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
PRECEEDING THE SYSTEM. PW/S REMAIN NEAR OR JUST UNDER 1 INCH WITH
H85 DEW POINTS LESS THAN 9C OVER THE SRN PLAINS. REGARDLESS...VERY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT
SHOULD OVERCOME THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ENEWD FROM KS/NRN MO ACROSS
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

12Z NAM AND RUC FORECAST WEAKER CAP NEAR THE FRONT/DEVELOPING DRY
LINE ACROSS KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS STRONGER CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
ALTHOUGH ALL AGREE IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN KS/NRN MO ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LLJ. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE AS ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS/MCSS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL RISK/LOW PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON / AS
FORECAST BY THE NAM/RUC / GIVEN THE VERY STRONG/DEEP MIXING TODAY.
MORE LIKELY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT AND DEEP ASCENT BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD ACROSS KS/OK. WIND DAMAGE/HAIL WOULD BE PRIMARY WARM
SECTOR THREATS WITH HIGH BASED STORMS WITH ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO RICHER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NERN OK/SERN
KS/SWRN MO...STORM INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 03/07/2009

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KCLE [071540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 071540
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1040 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM HAIL BENTON RIDGE 41.00N 83.79W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH HANCOCK OH POST OFFICE

0954 AM HAIL AKRON 41.08N 81.52W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH SUMMIT OH TRAINED SPOTTER

1010 AM HAIL RAVENNA 41.16N 81.24W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH PORTAGE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KIELTYKA

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KPUB [071503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 071503
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
802 AM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
03/07/2009 M9.0 INCH MINERAL CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KIWX [071422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 071422
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
921 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM HAIL VAN WERT 40.86N 84.58W
03/07/2009 M0.88 INCH VAN WERT OH TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO NICKLE SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902459

$$

LMK

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KTFX [071358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 071358
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
657 AM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BABB 48.86N 113.44W
03/07/2009 M97.00 MPH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0526 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 20 WSW BROWNING 48.45N 113.42W
03/07/2009 M76.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

&&

$$

JNS

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KDVN [071350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDVN 071350
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
750 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 AM HAIL MEMPHIS 40.46N 92.17W
03/07/2009 E0.75 INCH SCOTLAND MO TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. HAIL WAS COVERING THE GROUND.

0132 AM HAIL MEMPHIS 40.46N 92.17W
03/07/2009 E0.25 INCH SCOTLAND MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0149 AM HAIL 5 NE GRANGER 40.53N 91.92W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH CLARK MO TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0150 AM HAIL 3 NNE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.61N 91.87W
03/07/2009 M0.25 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0228 AM HAIL DENMARK 40.75N 91.33W
03/07/2009 E0.75 INCH LEE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0230 AM HAIL 1 SE BURLINGTON 40.80N 91.11W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT. SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN.

0232 AM HAIL WEST BURLINGTON 40.82N 91.18W
03/07/2009 E0.25 INCH DES MOINES IA EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA SIZE HAIL AT GREAT RIVER MEDICAL CENTER

0236 AM HAIL BURLINGTON 40.81N 91.12W
03/07/2009 E0.50 INCH DES MOINES IA EMERGENCY MNGR

1/2 INCH HAIL AT BURLINGTON AIRPORT

0237 AM HAIL BURLINGTON 40.81N 91.12W
03/07/2009 M1.25 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED IN SOUTH SIDE OF BURLINGTON.

0238 AM HAIL BURLINGTON 40.81N 91.12W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT

0320 AM HAIL KEOTA 41.37N 91.96W
03/07/2009 E0.50 INCH KEOKUK IA PUBLIC

PEA TO 1/2 INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

WE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071302
SWODY1
SPC AC 071259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS E CNTRL PLNS INTO THE MID MS
AND OH VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AS UT UPR
LOW CONTINUES ENE TO THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY...AND NRN STREAM
IMPULSE NOW ON THE MB/ONTARIO BORDER MOVES GENERALLY E INTO WRN
QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW OVER KS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE SWD
TO THE OK PANHANDLE THIS EVE. THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NE INTO N
CNTRL MO TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AS ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VLYS...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
S INTO NW TX AND OK. STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOST
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE STNRY FRONT...ALTHOUGH INCREASING DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT.

...E CNTRL PLNS INTO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
SCTD CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG AND N OF STNRY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLNS ENE
INTO PA/NY. THE FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS EWD MOVEMENT
OF MB/ONTARIO TROUGH MAINTAINS SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE UPR GRT
LKS...AND 45 KT WSWLY LLJ PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VLYS.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /PWS
AROUND 1.00-1.25 INCHES/...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. BUT GIVEN 50+ KT
UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...STORMS WILL NEVERTHELESS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HAIL AS MUCAPE GRADUALLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER IND/OH...AND REMAINS AOA 1000 J/KG
IN KS/MO.

FARTHER W...APPROACH OF UT TROUGH WILL ENHANCE UVV OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS THIS EVE...AND OVER THE MID MS VLY EARLY SUN. INCREASING
ASCENT/UPR DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND MODEST SFC HEATING
ALONG SWLY LLJ...COULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OR TWO OF STORMS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER NRN PARTS OF KS AND
MO AND SE NEB/SRN IA BY EVE. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP
WSWLY SHEAR...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE SUPPLY COULD YIELD ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR SFC HEATING S OF STALLED FRONT. BUT
IF SUFFICIENT BREAKS DO DEVELOP...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLD SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR THE FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION
ACROSS S CNTRL/SE KS EWD INTO WRN MO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE.
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE AS LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 50 KTS. THUS...ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP LOW/MID
LVL ROTATION...INCREASING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

ADDITIONAL/MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS APPEAR LIKELY LATER TONIGHT EARLY
SUN AS UPR IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CONTINUE ENEWD. STORMS
COULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SRN KS/NE OK...AND...MORE
LIKELY...EWD ACROSS MO AND IL. FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN
STRONGER STORMS...AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WINDS.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 03/07/2009

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KIWX [071302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 071302
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
802 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM HAIL DECATUR 40.83N 84.93W
03/07/2009 E0.70 INCH ADAMS IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902458

$$

ARNOTT

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KIWX [071237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 071237
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
737 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 AM HAIL OTTOVILLE 40.93N 84.34W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH PUTNAM OH FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902457

$$

LMK

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KIWX [071235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 071235
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
735 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM HAIL 1 N BLUFFTON 40.76N 85.17W
03/07/2009 M0.50 INCH WELLS IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902456

$$

LMK

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KIWX [071234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 071234
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
734 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0733 AM HAIL VAN WERT 40.86N 84.58W
03/07/2009 M0.25 INCH VAN WERT OH EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902455

$$

LMK

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KIWX [071227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 071227
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
726 AM EST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM HAIL DECATUR 40.83N 84.93W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH ADAMS IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902454

$$

ARNOTT

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KTFX [071205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 071205
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
505 AM MST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 WSW BABB 48.78N 113.72W
03/05/2009 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

6 HR SNOWFALL AT MANY GLACIER SNOTEL ELEVATION 4900 FT
MSL

0700 PM HEAVY SNOW 24 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.83W
03/05/2009 M6.0 INCH TETON MT MESONET

6 HR SNOWFALL AT WALDRON SNOTEL ELEVATION 5600 FT MSL

0700 AM SNOW 29 W CHOTEAU 47.81N 112.81W
03/06/2009 M6.2 INCH TETON MT MESONET

24-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 6.2 INCHES ENDING 7AM MST AT
WALDRON ELEVATION 5600 FEET.

0700 AM SNOW 10 NNW LINCOLN 47.09N 112.76W
03/06/2009 M14.5 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET

24-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 14.5 INCHES ENDING 7AM MST AT
COPPER CAMP ELEVATION 6950 FEET.

0700 AM SNOW 14 WSW BABB 48.78N 113.72W
03/06/2009 M7.3 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

24-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 7.3 INCHES ENDING 7AM MST AT
MANY GLACIER ELEVATION 4900 FEET

0700 AM SNOW 6 SW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.60N 111.19W
03/06/2009 M8.6 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

24-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 8.6 INCHES ENDING 7AM MST
ELEVATION 7750 FEET.

0700 AM SNOW 7 SW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.21W
03/06/2009 M9.5 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

24-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 9.5 INCHES ENDING 7AM MST AT
BLACK BEAR ELEVATION 8170 FEET.

1000 AM SNOW VIRGINIA CITY 45.30N 111.94W
03/06/2009 E7.0 INCH MADISON MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

24-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ESTIMATED 7 INCHES ENDING AT 10AM
MST ELEVATION 5773 FEET

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 7 SW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.59N 111.21W
03/06/2009 M12.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

24HR SNOWFALL AT BLACK BEAR SNOTEL ELEVATION 8150 FT MSL

&&

$$

JNS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 071000
SWOD48
SPC AC 071000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...WITH A POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIKELY
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST PER 00Z GEFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/STEADILY
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A WARM/MOIST
EARLY SEASON AIRMASS...IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. WHILE A WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE...SOME MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND UNKNOWNS REGARDING MOISTURE
QUALITY INTO THE MIDWEST PRECLUDES 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX.

THEREAFTER...WITH THE CENTRAL STATES PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK...THE PRIMARY TSTM
POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO TX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOR DAY 5/WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS SEEM UNLIKELY AT
THIS JUNCTURE. OTHERWISE...AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW INTO
THE WEEKEND.

..GUYER.. 03/07/2009

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KDVN [070945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070945
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM HAIL 1 SE BURLINGTON 40.80N 91.11W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT. SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

$$

WE

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KDVN [070926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070926
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 AM HAIL KEOTA 41.37N 91.96W
03/07/2009 E0.50 INCH KEOKUK IA PUBLIC

PEA TO 1/2 INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

WE

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KDVN [070847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070847
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 AM HAIL BURLINGTON 40.81N 91.12W
03/07/2009 M1.25 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED IN SOUTH SIDE OF BURLINGTON.

&&

$$

DLS

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KDVN [070839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070839
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 AM HAIL WEST BURLINGTON 40.82N 91.18W
03/07/2009 E0.25 INCH DES MOINES IA EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA SIZE HAIL AT GREAT RIVER MEDICAL CENTER

0236 AM HAIL BURLINGTON 40.81N 91.12W
03/07/2009 E0.50 INCH DES MOINES IA EMERGENCY MNGR

1/2 INCH HAIL AT BURLINGTON AIRPORT

0238 AM HAIL BURLINGTON 40.81N 91.12W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT

&&

$$

DLF

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KDVN [070836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDVN 070836
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
236 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 AM HAIL DENMARK 40.75N 91.33W
03/07/2009 E0.75 INCH LEE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DLF

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070832
SWODY3
SPC AC 070829

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG/PERTURBED SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST. MASS
FIELDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE
APPROACHING WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
SECTOR LIKELY TO STEADILY RETURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH TX/OK AND EVENTUALLY KS AS LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

WHILE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX/OK/KS DURING THE DAY...THE PERTURBED
SUBTROPICAL STREAM/POTENTIAL SPEED MAX AND POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING BENEATH A CIRRUS CANOPY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP...AROUND 60/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING. COMBINED
WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WELL-ORGANIZED SURFACE BASED TSTMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WOULD SEEM POSSIBLE.

IN ALL...A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO LEADS TO HEIGHTENED
UNCERTAINTY/REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS DIURNALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...
AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY ELEVATED
MOISTURE INFLUX NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION NOCTURNALLY.

..GUYER.. 03/07/2009

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KDVN [070829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070829
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
229 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0149 AM HAIL DENMARK 40.75N 91.33W
03/07/2009 E0.75 INCH LEE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DLF

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KDVN [070753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070753
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
153 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM HAIL 3 NNE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.61N 91.87W
03/07/2009 M0.25 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DLS

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KDVN [070752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDVN 070752
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
151 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0149 AM HAIL 5 NE GRANGER 40.53N 91.92W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH CLARK MO TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

DLF

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KDVN [070751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070751
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
150 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 AM HAIL 5 NE GRANGER 40.53N 91.92W
03/07/2009 M0.75 INCH CLARK MO TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

DLF

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KEAX [070749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KEAX 070749
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
149 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM HAIL MILAN 40.20N 93.12W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH SULLIVAN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

$$

MJU

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KDVN [070745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070745
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
145 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 AM HAIL MEMPHIS 40.46N 92.17W
03/07/2009 E0.75 INCH SCOTLAND MO TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. HAIL WAS COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

DLF

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KDVN [070735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 070735
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
135 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 AM HAIL MEMPHIS 40.46N 92.17W
03/07/2009 E0.25 INCH SCOTLAND MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

DANF

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KEAX [070706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070706
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
106 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM HAIL GREEN CASTLE 40.26N 92.88W
03/07/2009 E1.25 INCH SULLIVAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

RANGE OF QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED, AS
WELL AS SMALLER HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

&&

$$

ACH

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KEAX [070651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070651
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1251 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM HAIL GREEN CASTLE 40.26N 92.88W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH SULLIVAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

RANGE OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

ACH

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KABQ [070649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 070649
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 PM MST FRI MAR 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WAGON MOUND 36.00N 104.71W
03/06/2009 M62.00 MPH MORA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1127 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE LAS VEGAS 35.66N 105.14W
03/06/2009 M62.00 MPH SAN MIGUEL NM ASOS

1206 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WAGON MOUND 36.00N 104.71W
03/06/2009 M65.00 MPH MORA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0139 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE LAS VEGAS 35.66N 105.14W
03/06/2009 M61.00 MPH SAN MIGUEL NM ASOS

0219 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE LAS VEGAS 35.66N 105.14W
03/06/2009 M59.00 MPH SAN MIGUEL NM ASOS

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE LAS VEGAS 35.66N 105.14W
03/06/2009 M58.00 MPH SAN MIGUEL NM ASOS

&&

$$

DPORTER

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KEAX [070645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070645
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM HAIL MILAN 37.26N 97.67W
03/07/2009 E1.00 INCH SUMNER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

1240 AM HAIL GREEN CITY 40.27N 92.96W
03/07/2009 E0.75 INCH SULLIVAN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

MJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0197

ACUS11 KWNS 070644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070644
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 070644Z - 070845Z

SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME OF IT STRONG...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NERN KS AND SPREAD INTO NRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF E-W
FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN KS INTO NRN MO ALONG NOSE OF STRONG
LLJ...50-60KT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
ONGOING RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND MORE MATURE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN MO. MUCAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...ATOP
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
FORCE MOISTURE INTO ERN KS/MO. WITH TIME RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-70 COINCIDENT WITH WARM
FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HAIL.

..DARROW.. 03/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39559753 40249473 40389245 39169207 38869461 38519720
39559753

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KEAX [070639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070639
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1237 AM HAIL GREEN CASTLE 40.26N 92.88W
03/07/2009 E0.88 INCH SULLIVAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ACH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070621
SWODY2
SPC AC 070620

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
ON SUNDAY. WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...A RELATIVELY
COMPACT/NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID
LEVEL JET STREAK ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY. THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND ITS ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...WILL
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
ON SUNDAY.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO BE REACHING THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED
TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN AN ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
AIDED BY A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD
BEARING LAYER AND 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE SUGGESTS THESE
EARLY DAY TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL/EASTERN IA AND PERHAPS NORTHERN
INDIANA.

WITH TIME...GRADUAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND A SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE INFLUX OF UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS
FAR EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO AND THE DOWNSTATE PORTIONS OF IL INTO
INDIANA. TOTAL BUOYANCY IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY ROBUST...BUT SUFFICIENT INSOLATION/UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT MLCAPES AS HIGH AS 750-1000 J/KG. STRONG 60-75 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW/MODEST VEERING WOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FAST MOVING BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISKS...ALTHOUGH MODEST VEERING/50 KT FLOW
AROUND 1 KM SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...ARKLATEX VICINITY...
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MUCH MORE
ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY ON SUNDAY. THIS IS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO WEAKER/AMORPHOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE WAKE OF
THE MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
STALLING COLD FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ATOP
AROUND 60/PERHAPS LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WOULD CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN
5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME AS A PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND PERHAPS THE INTERIOR INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS A COLD
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
SPORADIC/LOW PROBABILITY POTENTIAL DOES NOT WARRANT A TSTM OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 03/07/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070602
SWODY1
SPC AC 070558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
E CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF DOWNSTREAM SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...IS PROGGED LIFT OUT OF
THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST OF ONTARIO
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALL GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...BENEATH
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION.
AND...MID-LEVEL CAPPING...COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE
PACIFIC...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...IS EXPECTED
TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING AT
12Z...NEAR A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THIS IS WHERE LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THE DAY. VARIABILITY EXISTS
AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE CONTINUING STRENGTH OF THIS
FORCING...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES.

FARTHER WEST...THE MAIN UPPER IMPULSE IS NOT PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WEAKER SPEED MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING STRONG
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
STORMS...WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF NEBRASKA/IOWA. IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUING FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE RISK FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL PERSIST.

IF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING... A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR ISOLATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS REGION
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SIZABLE...AS A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
STRENGTHENS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
CONSIDERABLE LOW/MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM.

AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MIGRATES OUT OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
IMPULSE...INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG AN
EASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
KANSAS/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER THE COMMENCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
...A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...PERHAPS
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..KERR/HURLBUT.. 03/07/2009

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KEAX [070602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070602
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 PM HAIL 2 S TRENTON 40.05N 93.60W
03/06/2009 E0.75 INCH GRUNDY MO TRAINED SPOTTER

RANGE OF PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

ACH

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KEAX [070545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070545
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 PM HAIL JAMESPORT 39.97N 93.80W
03/06/2009 E0.75 INCH DAVIESS MO AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

ACH

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KEAX [070535]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070535
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1133 PM HAIL GALLATIN 39.91N 93.96W
03/06/2009 E1.00 INCH DAVIESS MO AMATEUR RADIO

1 INCH HAIL REPORTED AT WEST ENTRANCE TO GALLATIN ON HWY
6.

&&

$$

ACH

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KEAX [070517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070517
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1117 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1114 PM HAIL WINSTON 39.87N 94.14W
03/06/2009 E1.00 INCH DAVIESS MO TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORT OF SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE
JUNCTION OF I-35 AND 69.

&&

$$

ACH

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KEAX [070508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 070508
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1108 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 PM HAIL STEWARTSVILLE 39.75N 94.50W
03/06/2009 E0.88 INCH DEKALB MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

ACH

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