KJAN [161915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 161915
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE BONITA 32.97N 91.60W
05/15/2007 MOREHOUSE LA PUBLIC

LOTS OF CORN FLATTENED BY HIGH THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN THE
AREA NEAR JONES.

0313 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N SUNFLOWER 33.60N 90.54W
05/15/2007 SUNFLOWER MS PUBLIC

PLANTATION REPORTED WHEAT FLATTENED BY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. ALSO A LITTLE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NNW MISSISSIPPI VALLE 33.59N 90.35W
05/15/2007 LEFLORE MS PUBLIC

WHEAT AND CROPS FLATTENED BY THUNDERSTORM WIND. REPORTED
BY AREA FARM AVIATION SERVICE.

&&

$$

AG

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KIWX [161912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 161912
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
311 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG LEITERS FORD 41.12N 86.39W
05/15/2007 FULTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES GREATER THAN 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN

&&

$$

BJS

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KARX [161905]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 161905
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
205 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL 4 E NEILLSVILLE 44.56N 90.51W
05/16/2007 E0.75 INCH CLARK WI PUBLIC

BRIEF HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE EAST OF NEILLSVILLE AIRPORT.

&&

$$

SHEA

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KBIS [161903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 161903
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
203 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM TSTM WND GST BOWMAN 46.18N 103.40W
05/13/2007 E65 MPH BOWMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

TREES DOWN IN BOWMAN. THIS IS A CLARIFICATION OF AN
EARLIER LSR SENT MAY 14 AT 105 AM CDT. ESTIMATE OF WIND
SPEED WAS NOT OBTAINED AT THAT TIME.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN

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KARX [161859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 161859
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
159 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0152 PM HAIL 3 S GRANTON 44.55N 90.46W
05/16/2007 E0.25 INCH CLARK WI AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED NEAR CUNNINGHAM AIRFIELD BY KB9URP.

&&

$$

SHEA

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KLWX [161858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 161858
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM TSTM WND DMG NORRISVILLE 39.70N 76.54W
05/16/2007 HARFORD MD COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES DOWN

&&

$$

RDH

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KILN [161856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 161856
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
256 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W WEST HARRISON 39.26N 84.86W
05/15/2007 DEARBORN IN NWS EMPLOYEE

A TREE AND A COUPLE OF LARGE LIMBS DOWN OFF OF JAMISON
ROAD.

&&

$$

SITES

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KARX [161855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 161855
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
155 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM HAIL 2 E NEILLSVILLE 44.56N 90.55W
05/16/2007 E0.25 INCH CLARK WI PUBLIC

REPORTED AT THE PAMIDA STORE ON HIGHWAY 10.

&&

$$

SHEA

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KARX [161853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 161853
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
153 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM HAIL 3 E NEILLSVILLE 44.56N 90.53W
05/16/2007 E0.25 INCH CLARK WI PUBLIC

HAIL STONES JUST LARGER THAN PEAS REPORTED BY A BUSINESS
ALONG HIGHWAY 10 EAST OF TOWN.

&&

$$

SHEA

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KILN [161850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 161850
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
250 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1053 PM TSTM WND DMG W HARRISON 39.25N 84.79W
05/15/2007 HAMILTON OH PUBLIC

1/2 MILE OFF THE INDIANA AND OHIO BORDER, 2 TREES TWISTED
OFF AT 15 FEET ABOVE GROUND AND 1 TREE BROKEN OFF CLOSE
TO THE GROUND. FIR TREE LIMBS STRIPPED OF NEEDLES AND NEW
GROWTH AND THROWN ALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

$$

MIKEG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0821

ACUS11 KWNS 161844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161843
RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-162015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY...CT...MA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 277...

VALID 161843Z - 162015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 277 CONTINUES.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SRN NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST
ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW OVER ERN NY
AND WRN MA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SWWD EXTENDS SEWD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS SRN MA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW
INTO ERN PA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
STILL HAS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING
NEWD ACROSS WRN MA AND NRN CT MAY INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY
BECOMING LOCALLY MORE INTENSE. OTHERWISE...NEW ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS FAR SRN NY AND EXPAND EWD INTO WRN
MA AND WRN CT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON WSR-88D VWPS AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGE WIND GUSTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.BROYLES.. 05/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

42937328 43057290 42727204 41867153 41247173 40687332
41147433 41937450

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0820

ACUS11 KWNS 161843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161842
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-162015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161842Z - 162015Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI INTO NRN IL THIS
AFTERNOON AS TSTMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INVOF COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW
SINKING S/SEWD FROM NRN WI. DESPITE PALTRY TOTAL INSTABILITY...VERY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SHOULD ALLOW A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z.

18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE LOW AROUND
20 NE LSE WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT RUNNING SSW TO AROUND 20 E
ALO AND THEN ARCING MORE WWD NEAR DSM. INVOF OF THESE FEATURES...SCT
SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN SPAWNED ACROSS
W-CNTRL/CNTRL WI SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO FAR NERN IA. MODIFIED
ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR EAU AND RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AOB 250 J/KG/
BENEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION. ADDITIONAL HEATING ACROSS SRN
WI/NRN IL WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...LIKELY TO AROUND
500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEARS OF 30 TO 35 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH COMPACT VORTICITY
MAXIMUM...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POTENTIAL
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND THREATS...VERY STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /AROUND 9 DEG
C/KM/ AND 0-3 KM CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG /AS DEPICTED BY RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SERN WI/ SHOULD ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING
POTENTIAL. IF THIS OCCURS...BRIEF TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
REGIME.

.GRAMS.. 05/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

44558947 43768869 43018821 42178790 41828791 41518832
41458895 41668978 42079018 42829035 43689070 44509098
44769044

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KLWX [161841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 161841
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 PM TSTM WND DMG FREELAND 39.70N 76.68W
05/16/2007 BALTIMORE MD COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREE DOWN ON TRAILER ON SPOOKS FILL ROAD

&&

$$

RDH

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KIWX [161836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 161836
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
236 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM TORNADO 1 SW BURNETTSVILLE 40.75N 86.61W
05/15/2007 WHITE IN COUNTY OFFICIAL

SMALL TORNADO OBSERVED BY CHIEF DEPUTY OVER OPEN
FIELD...NO DAMAGE

&&

$$

BJS

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KILN [161831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 161831
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
231 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N SEVEN MILE 39.49N 84.55W
05/15/2007 BUTLER OH TRAINED SPOTTER

METAL ROOF PARTIALLY PEELED BACK ON A BARN. ANOTHER BARN
HAD A WALL PUSHED IN. CORNER SIDING OF HOUSE PEELED OFF.
LARGE LIMBS ON ROUTE 503.

1045 PM TSTM WND DMG BURLINGTON 39.02N 84.72W
05/15/2007 BOONE KY EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON ROGERS LANE.

1200 AM TSTM WND DMG 7 SE WASHINGTON COURT H 39.47N 83.34W
05/16/2007 FAYETTE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOBILE HOME ROOF DAMAGED. SEVERAL TREES TWISTED. BARN
KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

$$

SITES

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KALY [161828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 161828
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
228 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG BURRVILLE 41.87N 73.09W
05/16/2007 LITCHFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

$$

EHELLER

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KPAH [161824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 161824
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
124 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW HARMONY 38.13N 87.93W
05/15/2007 POSEY IN EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN IN NEW HARMONY

&&

$$

JG

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KJAN [161814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 161814
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
114 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 ESE ROLLING FORK 32.82N 90.72W
05/15/2007 YAZOO MS PUBLIC

THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW DOWN A CORN CROP JUST WEST OF
HOLLY BLUFF.

&&

$$

JFAIRLY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0819

ACUS11 KWNS 161746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161746
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...FAR SERN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161746Z - 161915Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. DESPITE
MODERATE INSTABILITY...RATHER WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT. THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 1740Z...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A BROKEN LINE OF
TSTMS ROUGHLY ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR LFT ENEWD TO AROUND 40 NE
MOB. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS LINE HAVE SLOWED
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF HEATING
WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S HAVE DRIVEN MLCAPES
TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS INTERACTS
WITH THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH
LIGHT FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN /PER REGIONAL VAD
PROFILERS/. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION BEYOND PULSE-TYPE.
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A LINEAR
CLUSTER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.

.GRAMS.. 05/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

31708599 31148512 30498558 30358628 30298781 29978863
29348940 29159047 29489126 30359115 30918953 31428766

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KJAN [161746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 161746
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SE ROLLING FORK 32.83N 90.78W
05/15/2007 SHARKEY MS PUBLIC

FARM IN THE AREA REPORTED THAT HIGH THUNDERSTORM WINDS
FLATTENED SOME CORN AND OTHER CROPS IN THE AREA ALONG THE
BORDER BETWEEN YAZOO AND SHARKEY COUNTY SOUTHEAST OF
ROLLING FORK.

&&

$$

AG

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WATCHES: Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested

WWUS20 KWNS 161730
SEL8
SPC WW 161730
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-17000
0-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
A SMALL PART OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MODERATE TO MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING. THIS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN PA AND
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. APPEARS LOW-TOPPED LINES OF
STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW BOW ECHOES...WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT UNDER STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE
TO ABUNDANT AFTERNOON HEATING AND 40+ KT WLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

..EVANS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161730
SWODY2
SPC AC 161728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..FLORIDA...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
ON THURSDAY ACROSS SRN FL...WITH ACTIVITY ALSO DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF NRN INTO CENTRAL FL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD THROUGH THIS REGION
BENEATH WEAK CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C AND
STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW MUCAPES TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG.
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25-30 DEGREES SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY.

..SRN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT BASIN SWD TO NRN BAJA REGION...WITH MODELS INDICATING
THESE FEATURES MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITHIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
SRN ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. MODELS
SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK AND THUS LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN NM/FAR
W TX SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES GIVEN OVERALL WEAK
INSTABILITY FORECAST.

FARTHER N...PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TO THE CENTRAL/
NRN HIGH PLAINS ATOP STRONG SURFACE HEATING RESULTING IN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. 12Z NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ASCENT WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WOULD
SUGGEST SOME TSTM POTENTIAL. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN TSTM
INITIATION...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN NWD EXTENT OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN AND SECOND IMPULSE
NOW LOCATED OVER ERN DAKOTAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE IN PHASE ON
THURSDAY AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY FROM
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

.PETERS.. 05/16/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0818

ACUS11 KWNS 161656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161656
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-161800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SE PA...MD...NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 161656Z - 161800Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS NRN NJ...SE PA...MD AND NCNTRL VA. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. A
WW WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR OVER MD AREA NWD...AND MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS VA THIS AFTERNOON.

16Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL PA AND WV
WITH A THERMAL AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
F. AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM SE PA EXTENDING
SWD INTO NCNTRL VA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED 1000 TO 1500
J/KG ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LOCALLY STEEPER AROUND THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SCNTRL PA AND WV MOVES EWD...NEW CELLS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS AS STORMS SPREAD QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

.BROYLES.. 05/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

41587515 40967406 40177488 39437573 38297692 37337837
37447926 37827970 38517907 39537806 40607684

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KGRR [161655]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 161655 CCA
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1246 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007...COR FOR TIME

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG PAW PAW 42.22N 85.89W
05/15/2007 VAN BUREN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE HEALTHY OAK TREE DOWN.

0711 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N DIMONDALE 42.68N 84.65W
05/15/2007 EATON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

DELTA TWP. WIRES DOWN

&&

$$

GWETZEL

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KGRR [161646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 161646
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1246 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG PAW PAW 42.22N 85.89W
05/15/2007 VAN BUREN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE HEALTHY OAK TREE DOWN.

0711 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N DIMONDALE 42.68N 84.65W
05/15/2007 EATON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

DELTA TWP. WIRES DOWN

&&

$$

GWETZEL

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 277

WWUS20 KWNS 161632
SEL7
SPC WW 161632
CTZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-NYZ000-RIZ000-162200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CONNECTICUT
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
FAR SOUTHERN NEW YORK
NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF WORCESTER
MASSACHUSETTS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING WITHIN THIS SMALL AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY
IS ALREADY OCCURRING. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...SHEAR VALUES
ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INTO MA/NRN CT. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

..EVANS

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KJAN [161625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 161625
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1124 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 PM HAIL 5 E BENOIT 33.65N 90.92W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH BOLIVAR MS POST OFFICE

ALSO SOME LIMBS DOWN AROUND THE AREA.

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG MAGEE 31.87N 89.73W
05/15/2007 SIMPSON MS UTILITY COMPANY

OUTFLOW DOWNED A NUMBER OF TREES IN MAGEE.

&&

$$

AG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161608
SWODY1
SPC AC 161606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NC/VA INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY INTO NRN IL...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

..SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE OVERSPREAD SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM VA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND IS
NEARLY CLOUD FREE AND WILL SUPPORT STRONG HEATING/MARGINAL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE
55-60F RANGE...DESPITE TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR 80F. FURTHER
HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST MLCAPE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
THIS REGION. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY NEAR THE
FRONT...POSSIBLY WITHIN ERN PART OF BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER ERN PA INTO NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AS CAP WEAKENS AND MLCAPE EXCEEDS 500
J/KG.

SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT SPREADING FROM THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY THE MID AFTERNOON
WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST INVOF WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTER
MOVING INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY
STRONG SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER THIS REGION...ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE SLY AND ENHANCES LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THIS SLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC/LONG ISLAND SOUND MAY DIMINISH
SEVERE THREAT NEAR THE COASTS AND INTO ERN MA.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SPREADING WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND VA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED
WITH STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES/STRONG HEATING COMBINING WITH
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. BROKEN SQUALL
LINE OR SMALL SCALE BOW ECHOES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS/TREES DOWN OVER THIS REGION UNTIL STORMS MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY 03Z.

..PORTIONS OF SRN WI INTO NRN IL...
STRONG UPPER LOW WAS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SSEWD
NEAR DLH THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HEATING WILL BE
ABUNDANT AND SUPPORT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...
VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERCOME MID 40S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE APPROACHING 500
J/KG BY 21Z. FOCUSED ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD THEREFORE SUPPORT SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL...HIGH-RES WRF
SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FOCUS STRONGER CORES INTO THIS AREA
LATER TODAY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT MAY ALSO SUSTAIN A FEW
SMALL...LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT 3KM-CAPE AOA 150 J/KG AND PRONOUNCED
VORTICITY INVOF MID LEVEL LOW MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AS
WELL. SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH MARGINAL...APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND ATTENDANT SMALL
SLGT RISK.

..CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
STORMS WILL BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS INVOF POCKET OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/COOLING WHICH HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE WITH
SHORT-LIVED/PULSE-TYPE WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL/WIND BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER... COVERAGE/CONCENTRATION OF
REPORTS MAY BE LIKE YESTERDAY OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
WARRANTS HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND SLGT RISK INVOF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST.

..SRN HALF OF FL...
12Z SOUNDINGS AT MFL AND TBW INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH H5 TEMPS FROM -9 TO -11C. LAPSE RATES ARE
MARGINAL...THOUGH STRONG WARMING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT MODERATE MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH ELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL PUSH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND...FLOW
IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW INLAND AREAS TO
DESTABILIZE MORE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA BREEZES AND INVOF E-W
STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL...AND MARGINAL/BRIEF-LIVED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

..FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SRN CO/NWRN NM...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C WILL ALLOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY WITH STRONG AFTERNOON
HEATING. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW/SHEAR REMAINS WEAK... THOUGH SSELY
SURFACE FLOW OVER NWRN NM SHOULD INCREASE SHEAR A BIT AS STORMS
SPREAD ESEWD LATER TODAY OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS... THOUGH OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ATTM.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 05/16/2007

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KSHV [161607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KSHV 161607
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1107 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HAIL 8 S PROVENCAL 31.54N 93.20W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH NATCHITOCHES LA TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM HAIL 9 NW CALVIN 32.05N 92.89W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH WINN LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0110 PM TSTM WND DMG RUSTON 32.53N 92.64W
05/15/2007 LINCOLN LA NEWSPAPER

POWER LINES DOWN IN RUSTON

0110 PM LIGHTNING RUSTON 32.53N 92.64W
05/15/2007 LINCOLN LA NEWSPAPER

LIGHTNING STARTED A HOUSE FIRE IN RUSTON

0145 PM HAIL DOWNSVILLE 32.63N 92.41W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN LA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL JUST WEST OF DOWNSVILLE. 50 MPH WINDS
ESTIMATED AS WELL.

0150 PM TSTM WND DMG MINDEN 32.62N 93.28W
05/15/2007 WEBSTER LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

0215 PM HAIL 5 SE GRAYSON 32.00N 92.05W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH CALDWELL LA TRAINED SPOTTER

0220 PM HAIL 1 W CASTOR 32.25N 93.18W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH BIENVILLE LA PUBLIC

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 E FARMERVILLE 32.77N 92.23W
05/15/2007 UNION LA CO-OP OBSERVER

TREES DOWN A FEW MILES NORTH OF THE ROCKY BRANCH
COMMUNITY

0225 PM HAIL COLUMBIA 32.10N 92.08W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH CALDWELL LA EMERGENCY MNGR

0225 PM HAIL 3 W COUSHATTA 32.02N 93.39W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH RED RIVER LA EMERGENCY MNGR

0240 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARKSVILLE 33.61N 95.06W
05/15/2007 RED RIVER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

0300 PM HAIL 3 N HALL SUMMIT 32.22N 93.30W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH RED RIVER LA PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALMOST COVERED THE GROUND NORTH OF HALL
SUMMIT

0355 PM HAIL 9 W ROSSTON 33.59N 93.43W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH NEVADA AR TRAINED SPOTTER

0410 PM HAIL LEWISVILLE 33.36N 93.58W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH LAFAYETTE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG TEXARKANA 33.45N 94.02W
05/15/2007 MILLER AR EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A CAR.

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG TEXARKANA 33.44N 94.07W
05/15/2007 BOWIE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A CAR ALONG THE TEXAS SIDE OF
STATELINE RD.

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW TEXARKANA 33.48N 94.12W
05/15/2007 BOWIE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

A BILLBOARD WAS BLOWN DOWN ALONG IH-220 AT MILEPOST 220
NEAR JARVIS PARKWAY.

0437 PM TSTM WND DMG MAGNOLIA 33.27N 93.24W
05/15/2007 COLUMBIA AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 76.

0444 PM TSTM WND DMG WALDO 33.35N 93.30W
05/15/2007 COLUMBIA AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WALDO
COMMUNITY...AS WELL AS ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 45.

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 14 NE MARSHALL 32.68N 94.18W
05/15/2007 HARRISON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE STONEWALL 32.24N 93.74W
05/15/2007 DE SOTO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG RED STRONG ROAD IN
FRIERSON

0512 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW HAUGHTON 32.56N 93.54W
05/15/2007 BOSSIER LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 80.

0515 PM HAIL 7 W EL DORADO 33.22N 92.78W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH UNION AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

ON US-82.

0515 PM TSTM WND GST 7 W EL DORADO 33.22N 92.78W
05/15/2007 E60.00 MPH UNION AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

ON US-82

0530 PM HAIL 7 SW SHREVEPORT 32.40N 93.88W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH CADDO LA PUBLIC

0533 PM TSTM WND DMG HAUGHTON 32.53N 93.51W
05/15/2007 BOSSIER LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
WINFIELD AND WAFER ROADS.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W BRADLEY 33.10N 93.69W
05/15/2007 LAFAYETTE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN...WITH TIN ROOF DAMAGE TO
OUTBUILDINGS.

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG VIVIAN 32.87N 93.99W
05/15/2007 CADDO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

DAMAGE REPORTED AT REBEL ROAD APARTMENTS NEAR
INTERSECTION OF LA-1 AND REBEL ROAD.

0800 PM HAIL GRAND CANE 32.08N 93.81W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH DE SOTO LA PUBLIC

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 17 SE MANSFIELD 31.86N 93.50W
05/15/2007 DE SOTO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN NEAR THE SCHOOL IN THE COMMUNITY OF PELICAN

&&

$$

15

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KSHV [161607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KSHV 161607
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1107 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE STONEWALL 32.24N 93.74W
05/15/2007 DE SOTO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG RED STRONG ROAD IN
FRIERSON

&&

$$

15

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0817

ACUS11 KWNS 161557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161557
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-161730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...SRN NY...FAR NE PA AND NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161557Z - 161730Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND...SRN NY..FAR NE PA AND NRN NJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN NY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD INTO WRN PA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW
ACROSS NRN AND ERN CT. SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT...A
THERMAL AXIS EXISTS AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F.
AS A RESULT...A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY EXISTS IN SRN
NY...CT AND MA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1200 TO 1600 J/KG
ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEPER ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
CNTRL NY AND NCNTRL PA MOVES EWD...CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY
INITIATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY...LOCALLY
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ON REGIONAL WSR-88D
VWPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT ORGANIZE WITHIN
OR AHEAD OF THE LINE.

.BROYLES.. 05/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

41067381 40577471 41127556 42067542 42717492 42917421
42897313 42827238 42667187 42457131 41937139 41567170
41457252

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KSHV [161557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KSHV 161557
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1056 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HAIL 8 S PROVENCAL 31.54N 93.20W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH NATCHITOCHES LA TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM HAIL 9 NW CALVIN 32.05N 92.89W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH WINN LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0110 PM LIGHTNING RUSTON 32.53N 92.64W
05/15/2007 LINCOLN LA NEWSPAPER

LIGHTNING STARTED A HOUSE FIRE IN RUSTON

0110 PM TSTM WND DMG RUSTON 32.53N 92.64W
05/15/2007 LINCOLN LA NEWSPAPER

POWER LINES DOWN IN RUSTON

0145 PM HAIL DOWNSVILLE 32.63N 92.41W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN LA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL JUST WEST OF DOWNSVILLE. 50 MPH WINDS
ESTIMATED AS WELL.

0150 PM TSTM WND DMG MINDEN 32.62N 93.28W
05/15/2007 WEBSTER LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

0215 PM HAIL 5 SE GRAYSON 32.00N 92.05W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH CALDWELL LA TRAINED SPOTTER

0220 PM HAIL 1 W CASTOR 32.25N 93.18W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH BIENVILLE LA PUBLIC

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 E FARMERVILLE 32.77N 92.23W
05/15/2007 UNION LA CO-OP OBSERVER

TREES DOWN A FEW MILES NORTH OF THE ROCKY BRANCH
COMMUNITY

0225 PM HAIL 3 W COUSHATTA 32.02N 93.39W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH RED RIVER LA EMERGENCY MNGR

0225 PM HAIL COLUMBIA 32.10N 92.08W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH CALDWELL LA EMERGENCY MNGR

0240 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARKSVILLE 33.61N 95.06W
05/15/2007 RED RIVER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

0300 PM HAIL 3 N HALL SUMMIT 32.22N 93.30W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH RED RIVER LA PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALMOST COVERED THE GROUND NORTH OF HALL
SUMMIT

0355 PM HAIL 9 W ROSSTON 33.59N 93.43W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH NEVADA AR TRAINED SPOTTER

0410 PM HAIL LEWISVILLE 33.36N 93.58W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH LAFAYETTE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW TEXARKANA 33.48N 94.12W
05/15/2007 BOWIE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

A BILLBOARD WAS BLOWN DOWN ALONG IH-220 AT MILEPOST 220
NEAR JARVIS PARKWAY.

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG TEXARKANA 33.44N 94.07W
05/15/2007 BOWIE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A CAR ALONG THE TEXAS SIDE OF
STATELINE RD.

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG TEXARKANA 33.45N 94.02W
05/15/2007 MILLER AR EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A CAR.

0437 PM TSTM WND DMG MAGNOLIA 33.27N 93.24W
05/15/2007 COLUMBIA AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 76.

0444 PM TSTM WND DMG WALDO 33.35N 93.30W
05/15/2007 COLUMBIA AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WALDO
COMMUNITY...AS WELL AS ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 45.

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 14 NE MARSHALL 32.68N 94.18W
05/15/2007 HARRISON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0512 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW HAUGHTON 32.56N 93.54W
05/15/2007 BOSSIER LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 80.

0515 PM TSTM WND GST 7 W EL DORADO 33.22N 92.78W
05/15/2007 E60.00 MPH UNION AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

ON US-82

0515 PM HAIL 7 W EL DORADO 33.22N 92.78W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH UNION AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

ON US-82.

0530 PM HAIL 7 SW SHREVEPORT 32.40N 93.88W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH CADDO LA PUBLIC

0533 PM TSTM WND DMG HAUGHTON 32.53N 93.51W
05/15/2007 BOSSIER LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
WINFIELD AND WAFER ROADS.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W BRADLEY 33.10N 93.69W
05/15/2007 LAFAYETTE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN...WITH TIN ROOF DAMAGE TO
OUTBUILDINGS.

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE STONEWALL 32.24N 93.74W
05/15/2007 DE SOTO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG RED STRONG ROAD IN
FRIERSON

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG VIVIAN 32.87N 93.99W
05/15/2007 CADDO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

DAMAGE REPORTED AT REBEL ROAD APARTMENTS NEAR
INTERSECTION OF LA-1 AND REBEL ROAD.

0800 PM HAIL GRAND CANE 32.08N 93.81W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH DE SOTO LA PUBLIC

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 17 SE MANSFIELD 31.86N 93.50W
05/15/2007 DE SOTO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN NEAR THE SCHOOL IN THE COMMUNITY OF PELICAN

&&

$$

15

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KSHV [161551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 161551
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HAIL 9 NW CALVIN 32.05N 92.89W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH WINN LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 E FARMERVILLE 32.77N 92.23W
05/15/2007 UNION LA CO-OP OBSERVER

TREES DOWN A FEW MILES NORTH OF THE ROCKY BRANCH
COMMUNITY

0300 PM HAIL 3 N HALL SUMMIT 32.22N 93.30W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH RED RIVER LA PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALMOST COVERED THE GROUND NORTH OF HALL
SUMMIT

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE STONEWALL 32.24N 93.74W
05/15/2007 DE SOTO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG RED STRONG ROAD IN
FRIERSON

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 17 SE MANSFIELD 31.86N 93.50W
05/15/2007 DE SOTO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN NEAR THE SCHOOL IN THE COMMUNITY OF PELICAN

&&

$$

15

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KIWX [161549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 161549
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1149 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NW LA PORTE 41.62N 86.73W
05/15/2007 E60 MPH LA PORTE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ONTO MOVING MOTORCYCLE PINNING
44 YEAR OLD MALE RIDER...SUFFERED A BROKEN LEG

&&

$$

LF

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KDTX [161542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 161542
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW AKRON 43.56N 83.56W
05/15/2007 TUSCOLA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE FOOT DIAMETER LIMB FROM A LARGE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN
ACROSS THE ROAD. WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60-70 MPH.

&&

$$

HATZOS

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KIWX [161451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 161451
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1051 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE COLUMBIA CITY 41.12N 85.43W
05/15/2007 WHITLEY IN PUBLIC

SILO CAP BLOWN OFF

&&

$$

NWS

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KMQT [161419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 161419
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1019 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W IRON RIVER 46.10N 88.67W
05/14/2007 IRON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL 3 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN

&&

$$

TGREEN

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KIWX [161351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 161351
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
951 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE LEESBURG 41.29N 85.79W
05/15/2007 KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

2 LARGE TREES...2 FEET IN DIAMETER...SNAPPED AND HIT
THE CORNER OF A HOUSE.

&&

$$

SFH

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KMQT [161339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 161339
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
937 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 11 NW MARQUETTE 46.66N 87.56W
05/14/2007 E1.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG COUNTY ROAD 550
BETWEEN THE BIG GARLIC AMD LITTLE GARLIC RIVERS. REPORT
RELAYED VIA TV6.

0847 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S WATERSMEET 46.23N 89.18W
05/14/2007 GOGEBIC MI NWS STORM SURVEY

NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

$$

MZIKA

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KLOT [161331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 161331
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
830 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL COAL CITY 41.29N 88.28W
05/15/2007 M0.75 INCH GRUNDY IL CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL OBSERVED FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 MINUTES. MOSTLY PENNY
SIZED. HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AND STRIPPED LEAVES OFF
TREES IN COAL CITY NEAR GARFIELD STREET AND ILLINOIS
ROUTE 113.

&&

$$

MERZLOCK

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KIWX [161304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KIWX 161304 CCA
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
823 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE BENTON 41.47N 85.71W
05/15/2007 ELKHART IN NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

$$

CORRECTED FOR TIME OF DAMAGE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161255
SWODY1
SPC AC 161253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...

..SYNOPSIS...
GRT LKS TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES DROP SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...GRT BASIN/RCKYS RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND E INTO THE HI PLNS
AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT IT OVER THE SWRN DESERTS.

AT LWR LEVELS...LOW NOW NEAR ROC SHOULD REDEVELOP SLIGHTLY S OF E
TODAY...REACHING THE PVD AREA THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS PATTERN ONCE AGAIN KEEPS STRONGEST DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO AMPLIFYING UPR
TROUGH. COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC CST EARLY TONIGHT.

..SRN NEW ENGLAND TO NC...
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT
AND CSTL PLNS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE WARM SECTOR MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER BY MID-MAY STANDARDS...
HEATING SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD
SBCAPE AOA 500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH WEAKLY CONVERGENT PATTERN AHEAD
OF FRONT AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT NATURE OF HI-LVL FLOW...EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...PRESENCE OF 40+ KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY SHEAR...MODERATE TO STRONG MEAN FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY LARGE
LOW-LEVEL T/TD SPREADS SUGGEST A DECENT LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO SHORT LINES/BANDS...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR HIGH WIND. A SUSTAINED STORM/POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO
COULD ALSO FORM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN MASSACHUSETTS AS
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLY-ORIENTED
TO ALLOW STORM MOTION ALONG IT.

MOST OF THE STORMS LIKELY WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND/OR MOVED OFFSHORE
BY EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...COULD PERSIST
INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN WARMER BUT MORE WEAKLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER SE VA/NC.

..NC SW TO CNTRL GULF CST...
ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD STRONG PULSE STORMS IS FORECAST FARTHER SW ALONG
SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST.
PRESENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BOOST
SBCAPE TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG...WITH HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE IN
CNTRL/SRN AL...SE MS AND SRN LA. MODEST DEEP WNWLY SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT WEAK ORGANIZATION INTO BANDS/CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL.

..WI/NRN IL/IA/NRN MO/NEB...
COMPACT UPR VORT DROPPING SE ACROSS NRN MN SHOULD REACH SW WI THIS
EVENING...AND THE IND/OH BORDER AREA EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION
..WV LOOP DEPICTS ANOTHER IMPULSE ACCELERATING SE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THAT SHOULD BE NEAR STL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-25 TO -29 C AT H5/ WITH MN VORT...COUPLED WITH
STRONG SFC HEATING...WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS WI/NE IA AND NRN IL TODAY. EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 40
F...THIS WILL YIELD SBCAPE AOA 250 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL MASS FIELD RESPONSE TO UPPER VORT EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...BUT ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
DENSE COVERAGE OF VIGOROUS/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/STORMS
BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SSE WITH TIME AND MAY
ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS. COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW WBZ LEVELS AND
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY INVOF UPPER CENTER SUGGEST A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADOES UNTIL ABOUT
SUNSET.

FARTHER WSW...MORE WIDELY SCTD STORMS MAY FORM FROM CNTRL IA INTO
CNTRL NEB...IN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DAKOTAS DISTURBANCE.
THESE PULSE CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL UNTIL SUNSET.

..SWRN U.S./FOUR CORNERS AREA...
ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/OVERNIGHT STORM OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE W INTO PARTS OF NM AND AZ. COMBINATION OF
INCREASED MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES UNDERCUTTING GRT BASIN RIDGE SHOULD
SUPPORT SCTD STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST A LOW-PROBABILITY
THREAT OF LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

..SRN/CNTRL FL...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH SCTD STRONG PULSE
STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD A LITTLE
FARTHER N TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AS WEAK SHEAR/FLOW WILL ALLOW
DEVELOPMENT TO PROPAGATE N THROUGH INTERIOR PARTS OF THE STATE.

.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 05/16/2007

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KEPZ [161239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 161239
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
638 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM FLASH FLOOD SIERRA BLANCA 31.17N 105.36W
05/16/2007 HUDSPETH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL HOUSES WERE FLOODED IN SIERRA BLANCA AND SEVERAL
ROADS WERE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. FM ROAD 1111 HAD PART
OF THE PAVEMENT WASHED AWAY.

&&

$$

BRICE

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KIWX [161223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 161223
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
823 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE BENTON 41.47N 85.71W
05/15/2007 ELKHART IN NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

$$

NWS

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KILX [161222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KILX 161222
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
721 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE GREENVIEW 40.03N 89.72W
05/15/2007 M63.00 MPH MENARD IL MESONET

SWOP REPORT.

0107 PM TSTM WND DMG DIVERNON 39.57N 89.65W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

SMALL STATIONARY CONSTRUCTION TRAILER PUSHED OVER ALONG
I-55 NEAR DIVERNON. REPORT FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0115 PM TSTM WND GST DIVERNON 39.57N 89.65W
05/15/2007 E60.00 MPH SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

POWERLINES DOWN ON THE SW SIDE OF DIVERNON...TREE LIMBS
DOWN IN TOWN...AUTOMOBILE DAMAGE DUE TO FALLING LIMBS.
REPORT FROM SANGAMON CO EMERGENCY MANAGER

0115 PM TSTM WND DMG DIVERNON 39.57N 89.65W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE LIMB DOWN ON HOME WITH MINOR DAMAGE TO HOUSE. REPORT
FROM SANGAMON CO EMERGENCY MANAGER

0115 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N BUFFALO 39.86N 89.41W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN. REPORT FROM SANGAMON COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGER

0115 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S ELKHART 39.96N 89.48W
05/15/2007 LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** METAL BUILDING UNDER CONSTRUCTION WITH NO
ROOF COLLAPSED. REPORTED VIA SANGAMON/LOGAN COUNTY EMA.

0115 PM DOWNBURST 2 WSW LINCOLN 40.14N 89.40W
05/15/2007 LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN.

0133 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N ILLIOPOLIS 39.87N 89.25W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN

0147 PM TSTM WND DMG WAPELLA 40.22N 88.96W
05/15/2007 DE WITT IL PUBLIC

TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT

0205 PM TSTM WND GST DEER CREEK 40.63N 89.33W
05/15/2007 E60.00 MPH TAZEWELL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL 3 INCH BRANCHES DOWN

0215 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTICELLO 40.03N 88.57W
05/15/2007 PIATT IL EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. ONE TOOK A PORCH OFF A HOUSE.

0235 PM TSTM WND DMG CHAMPAIGN 40.11N 88.26W
05/15/2007 CHAMPAIGN IL PUBLIC

LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN ON CORNER OF NOFFTZ STREET AND
ALTON DRIVE.

0235 PM TSTM WND GST CHAMPAIGN 40.11N 88.26W
05/15/2007 M62.00 MPH CHAMPAIGN IL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF WIND GUST TO 62 MPH...2 MILES SOUTH OF
I-57 AND I-74.

0235 PM TSTM WND DMG CHAMPAIGN 40.11N 88.26W
05/15/2007 CHAMPAIGN IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN THE CITY
OF CHAMPAIGN. FROM COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0235 PM TSTM WND DMG URBANA 40.11N 88.21W
05/15/2007 CHAMPAIGN IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CITY OF URBANA. FROM COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0242 PM TSTM WND GST SULLIVAN 39.60N 88.61W
05/15/2007 M61.00 MPH MOULTRIE IL MESONET

&&

$$

SHIMON

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KLMK [161149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 161149
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
749 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE NEW PEKIN 38.47N 85.98W
05/15/2007 CLARK IN PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE PINE TREES DOWNED ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 60
SOUTHEAST OF NEW PEKIN.

&&

$$

JSD

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KIWX [161047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 161047
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W NORTH WEBSTER 41.33N 85.76W
05/15/2007 KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

12" DIAMETER MAPLE TREE SNAPPED OFF AND FELL ON GARAGE
AND POWER LINES

&&

$$

NWS

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KLOT [161024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLOT 161024
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
524 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM TSTM WND GST DWIGHT 41.10N 88.42W
05/15/2007 M60.00 MPH LIVINGSTON IL PUBLIC

60 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT DWIGHT, IL AIRPORT

0138 PM HAIL MORRIS 41.37N 88.43W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH GRUNDY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL.

0143 PM HAIL COAL CITY 41.29N 88.28W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH GRUNDY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN COAL CITY

0215 PM TSTM WND DMG PEOTONE 41.33N 87.80W
05/15/2007 WILL IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1 MILE NORTH OF I-57 AND WILL-PEOTONE RD - A SEMI-TRUCK
TIPPED OVER. TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN TOWN.

0230 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE MANHATTAN 41.36N 87.95W
05/15/2007 WILL IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN WILTON CENTER - 5 MILES SSE OF
MANHATTAN. AREA ROADS CLOSED.

0230 PM TSTM WND DMG GIBSON CITY 40.47N 88.38W
05/15/2007 FORD IL CO-OP OBSERVER

TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG CEDAR LAKE 41.37N 87.44W
05/15/2007 LAKE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

LIMBS AND BRANCHES DOWN.

0250 PM TSTM WND DMG CEDAR LAKE 41.37N 87.44W
05/15/2007 LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCH BRANCHES DOWN. TRAILER DAMAGED W OF CEDAR LAKE
ALONG US-41.

0253 PM TSTM WND DMG CEDAR LAKE 41.37N 87.44W
05/15/2007 LAKE IN BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF DAMAGED -PARTIALLY TORN OFF.

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG CROWN POINT 41.42N 87.36W
05/15/2007 LAKE IN CO-OP OBSERVER

NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

0257 PM TSTM WND DMG HOBART 41.53N 87.27W
05/15/2007 LAKE IN PUBLIC

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN - POWER OUT.

0258 PM HAIL MERRILLVILLE 41.47N 87.33W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH LAKE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR I-65 AND US-30.

0305 PM HAIL CRESCENT CITY 40.77N 87.86W
05/15/2007 E0.50 INCH IROQUOIS IL EMERGENCY MNGR

ALONG US-24 WEST OF TOWN.

0305 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N WATSEKA 40.80N 87.73W
05/15/2007 IROQUOIS IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN NORTH OF TOWN.

0305 PM TSTM WND GST KENTLAND 40.77N 87.45W
05/15/2007 E60.00 MPH NEWTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR

0307 PM TSTM WND DMG CROWN POINT 41.42N 87.36W
05/15/2007 LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS CROWN POINT.

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG WATSEKA 40.78N 87.73W
05/15/2007 IROQUOIS IL AMATEUR RADIO

TREE BRANCHES DOWN WEST OF TOWN.

0312 PM TSTM WND GST CHESTERTON 41.60N 87.06W
05/15/2007 E70.00 MPH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS TO 65 TO 70 MPH NEAR 1100 N AND IN-49 BYPASS
JUST N OF THE TOLL ROAD. ALSO REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL.

0314 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N SOUTH HAVEN 41.56N 87.13W
05/15/2007 PORTER IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** A TREE WAS BLOWN ONTO A PICKUP TRUCK ON
STATE ROAD 149, NORTH OF US ROUTE 6, KILLING THE DRIVER.

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W CEDAR LAKE 41.37N 87.49W
05/15/2007 LAKE IN AIRPLANE PILOT

IN BRUNSWICK, WEST OF CEDARLAKE, TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG SHELDON 40.77N 87.57W
05/15/2007 IROQUOIS IL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF DAMAGE TO LARGE STORAGE STRUCTURE. POWER LINES DOWN.

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE VALPARAISO 41.54N 86.97W
05/15/2007 PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

2 1/2 FOOT DIAMATER TREE SNAPPED AT BASE.

0416 PM HEAVY RAIN BONFIELD 41.15N 88.06W
05/15/2007 M0.00 INCH KANKAKEE IL CO-OP OBSERVER

0.80 INCH.

&&

$$

HALBACH

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160838
SWOD48
SPC AC 160837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF UPPER TROUGH/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DISAGREE ON AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
EVEN SO...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SPREAD
ATOP INCREASINGLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIRMASS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST THINKING IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

.DARROW.. 05/16/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160724
SWODY3
SPC AC 160723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NORTHERN PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL FLATTEN DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY3 PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN
THE 40S WITHIN LOW LEVEL ZONE OF CONVERGENCE FROM SW-NE MT.
PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AS TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE
PLAINS OF MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES...HOWEVER
A FEW STRONG HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE FARTHER WEST OVER
MT. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEAR A BIT TOO MEAGER TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY CERTAINLY OCCUR WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

..SRN NEW MEXICO/WEST TX...

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SWRN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ULTIMATELY TURNING SEWD INTO FAR WEST TX ABOUT PEAK HEATING
FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER
STORMS MAY WEAKLY ROTATE DUE TO DEEP VEERING FLOW...THOUGH
ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE STUNTED WITHIN WEAK
SHEAR/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY...MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.

.DARROW.. 05/16/2007

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