Georgia-Florida SKYWARN: 11/14/08

Friday, November 14, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2384

ACUS11 KWNS 150453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150453
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-150700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 932...

VALID 150453Z - 150700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 932 CONTINUES.

ISOLATED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN SC...AND SHOULD
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN NC OVERNIGHT. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING NNEWD ACROSS ERN SC
ATTM...THROUGH AN AIRMASS FEATURING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT PERSISTING ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN
VIGOROUS/LOCALLY-SEVERE -- MAINLY E OF THE SW-NE SURFACE FRONT.

FARTHER N INTO NC...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES RETREATING SLOWLY
WWD...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND. WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR IN
PLACE AND SLOW DESTABILIZATION TO CONTINUE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
NC...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO COVER
THE EVOLVING THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 36587584 35227557 33807807 32737934 32788070 33888032
34628013 35857856 36577684 36587584

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2383

ACUS11 KWNS 150419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150419
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-150545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL/SRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 931...

VALID 150419Z - 150545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 931 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF THE
WW.

A BAND OF FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SWRN GA ATTM...WHERE ROUGHLY
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. THIS CONVECTIVE
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALLER-SCALE VORT-MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD.

WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD/AMPLE SHEAR PERSISTING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN WELL-ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY-
SEVERE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SOME QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF THREAT EXIST DOWNSTREAM
-- ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN FL E OF THE CURRENT WATCH -- WHERE WEAKER
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION
AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32738184 32238067 30688212 29228387 29128532 30358460
31458503 32668285 32738184

WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 932

WWUS20 KWNS 150332
SEL2
SPC WW 150332
NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-151100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 600 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLORENCE SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 931...

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS NOW OVER CNTRL SC
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NNE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STRONGEST
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO INTERSECTION OF THAT BAND WITH
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NNE FROM NEAR CAE TO NEAR FLO. AREA
VWP DATA SHOW LOW LVL WINDS INCREASING ACROSS WW...PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACH/ACCELERATION OF NERN GULF VORT MAX AND
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. GIVEN
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING LOW LVL SHEAR AND FACT THAT LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER WARM/MOISTEN DOWNSTREAM INTO ERN SC/SRN
NC...SETUP MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS
AND/OR TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

...CORFIDI

KTAE [150251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 150251
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0907 PM TSTM WND GST PANAMA CITY 30.17N 85.67W
11/14/2008 M48.00 MPH BAY FL TRAINED SPOTTER

STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 48 MPH WHICH KNOCKED OUT
POWER AT EAST AVENUE AND 15TH STREET. THE PANAMA CITY
AIRPORT, PFN, ALSO HAD A GUST TO 48 MPH AND TYNDALL AIR
FORCE BASE, PAM, HAD A GUST TO 46 MPH.

GOULD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2382

ACUS11 KWNS 150216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150215
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-150415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MS/PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN
AL/NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150215Z - 150415Z

STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN MS AND W CENTRAL/NWRN AL.
AN ASSOCIATED/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MS/NRN AND WRN AL ATTM...BENEATH THE AXIS OF A
COMPACT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

EVENING BMX /BIRMINGHAM AL/ RAOB REVEALED A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE BUT
FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LATEST BMX VWP ALSO DEPICTS
A PERSISTENTLY-FAVORABLE WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT.

STORMS HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED SUB-SEVERE...AND SHOULD GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EWD INTO GA...A LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.
GREATEST THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS NERN AL AND INTO ADJACENT NWRN
GA...INVOF A SMALL UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER REVEALED BY WV IMAGERY
WITHIN THE BROADER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 34648629 34888548 34378491 33558492 32238611 31408850
31658918 33448772 34648629

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150056
SWODY1
SPC AC 150053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN
GULF CST NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...NERN GULF CST NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
MID-LVL WAVE INVOF CNTRL GULF CST WAS IN THE PROCESS OF DEAMPLIFYING
AND ACCELERATING NEWD. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH GA BY 06Z...AND THE
CAROLINAS/VA BY 12Z. LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER MID-TROP LAPSE RATES
WAS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH RESERVOIR OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S-LWR 70S/ IN PLACE OVER
THE NERN GULF. MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT/BUOYANCY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A POORLY MODELED FLARE-UP OF TSTMS OFF THE WRN FL PNHDL CST.

AS THE WAVE CONTINUES NEWD...CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
EXPAND INTO THE FL PNHDL...SE AL...AND CNTRL/SRN GA THIS EVE.
INCREASING LLJ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO ENHANCED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIKELY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR SUPPORTING A ROBUST SVR WEATHER EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
NONETHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND BRIEF STORM
ORGANIZATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SHORT-LIVED BOWS/LEWPS
PRODUCING DMGG WINDS. SOMEWHAT VEERED AND WEAK NATURE OF THE LLVL
WIND PROFILES /DUE IN PART TO EARLIER PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE SRN APLCNS/ WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES...BUT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE EJECTING WAVE
WHERE BACKING OF THE NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD OCCUR.

...SE/ECNTRL MS INTO CNTRL/NRN GA...
MID-LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG NW FRINGE OF THE EJECTING DISTURBANCE
AND INCREASING LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCD WITH THE APCHG
LARGER SCALE PLAINS TROUGH HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN
DOWNSTREAM...BUT H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STEEPER. THUS...EXPECT THAT
MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING BENEATH THE DEFORMATION AXIS FROM
ECNTRL/SE MS NEWD INTO CNTRL AL/NRN GA MAY GIVE HAIL OR PERHAPS AN
ISOLD DMGG WIND GUST. OTHERWISE...THE HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS DOWNSTREAM.

..RACY.. 11/15/2008

WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 931

WWUS20 KWNS 150038
SEL1
SPC WW 150038
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-150800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY GEORGIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN NUMBER/STRENGTH DURING THE PAST
90 MINS OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEX...AHEAD OF EJECTING/DEAMPLIFYING
UPR VORT. DESPITE APPROACH OF THE VORT...LOW LVL WIND FIELDS ACROSS
WW AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME TEMPORAL VEERING IN THE PAST 2-3
HRS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF DOWNSTREAM UPR IMPULSE NOW IN
UPSTATE GA/SC. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP
SHEAR...PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND PRESENCE
OF EXISTING ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE GULF...IT APPEARS THAT SOME
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TORNADOES ACROSS
WW AS THE VORT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS REGION LATER THIS EVE.

...CORFIDI

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2381

ACUS11 KWNS 150011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150011
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-150215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA/THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 150011Z - 150215Z

INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NERN GULF WILL SPREAD ONSHORE INTO
THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE/EXPAND ACROSS THE NERN GULF...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE FL PENINSULA
SHORTLY. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION
COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AREA VWP DATA REVEALS AMPLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CELLS...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THUS...AS STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING
ONSHORE...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SERN AL/SWRN GA...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30538686 30878681 32078517 32348407 31898271 30488326
29458498 30088651 30538686

KUNR [142342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 142342
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
442 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0519 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.23W
11/14/2008 M59.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NWS EAST RAPID CITY

0711 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 45.58N 103.55W
11/14/2008 M60.00 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

0820 AM NON-TSTM WND GST UNION CENTER 44.56N 102.67W
11/14/2008 M59.00 MPH MEADE SD MESONET

0920 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
11/14/2008 M60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

1005 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 23 SE WRIGHT 43.51N 105.18W
11/14/2008 M55.00 MPH CAMPBELL WY MESONET

1035 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LEMMON 45.94N 102.16W
11/14/2008 M61.00 MPH PERKINS SD MESONET

1117 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
11/14/2008 M62.00 MPH MEADE SD OTHER FEDERAL

1120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W PARMELEE 43.32N 101.14W
11/14/2008 M56.00 MPH TODD SD MESONET

1151 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE ECHETA 44.47N 105.83W
11/14/2008 M58.00 MPH CAMPBELL WY MESONET

1213 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
11/14/2008 M61.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

1225 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE PORCUPINE 43.28N 102.26W
11/14/2008 M58.00 MPH SHANNON SD MESONET

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WALL 43.99N 102.24W
11/14/2008 M60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

0118 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PHILIP 44.05N 101.67W
11/14/2008 M58.00 MPH HAAKON SD ASOS

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2380

ACUS11 KWNS 142318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142317
SCZ000-GAZ000-150115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN GA/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142317Z - 150115Z

A SLOW/MODEST INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE BY MID-EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...S OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FROM A WEAK LOW OVER MS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE
VERY SLOW NWD PROGRESS ACROSS GA/ERN SC THIS EVENING...AS A STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION PER
LATEST WV LOOP -- CONTINUES EWD.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS -- AND SHOULD REMAIN -- QUITE LIMITED
GIVEN NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
600-700 MB...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE YIELDING CAPE SUFFICIENT
FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. INDEED -- AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EVENING.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS ARE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE...DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING...SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
COUPLE OF KM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.

STRONGEST CELLS OVER NRN GA WILL LIKELY SHIFT ENEWD ATOP A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NERN GA/NWRN SC. HOWEVER...STORMS
FURTHER S ACROSS S CENTRAL GA ATTM MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH
TIME...SHIFTING ENEWD TOWARD THE ERN SC PORTION OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..GOSS.. 11/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 33968004 33168026 31508231 31118307 31628397 33038421
33938341 33738159 33968004

KBOU [142231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 142231
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
331 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0231 PM NON-TSTM WND GST STERLING 40.65N 103.21W
11/14/2008 M58.00 MPH LOGAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0133 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AMHERST 40.68N 102.17W
11/14/2008 M60.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

BRANCHES DOWN

0122 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AKRON 40.16N 103.21W
11/14/2008 M62.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO ASOS

1142 AM SNOW 3 SW CONIFER 39.49N 105.34W
11/14/2008 M2.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

UPDATED REPORT

1030 AM SNOW 3 S AURORA 39.66N 104.81W
11/14/2008 M2.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0915 AM SNOW SIMLA 39.14N 104.08W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 AM SNOW 4 NE THORNTON 39.93N 104.90W
11/14/2008 M0.2 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW ROXBOROUGH PARK 39.44N 105.07W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO CO-OP OBSERVER

HEAVY SNOW AT 0800 AM

0847 AM SNOW 3 SE PINECLIFFE 39.90N 105.38W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

COAL CREEK CANYON, CRESCENT PARK

0830 AM SNOW 2 W PARKER 39.51N 104.80W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0801 AM SNOW E HIGHLANDS RANCH 39.55N 104.97W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0757 AM SNOW LOUVIERS 39.47N 105.00W
11/14/2008 M2.1 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 AM SNOW 6 NNW GOLDEN 39.82N 105.26W
11/14/2008 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

RALSTON RESERVOIR

0740 AM SNOW 2 S BOULDER 40.00N 105.25W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT THE DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH
BUILDING.

0730 AM SNOW GRANT 39.45N 105.67W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH PARK CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
11/14/2008 M2.9 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM SNOW 2 NW ARAPAHOE PARK 39.66N 104.71W
11/14/2008 M2.2 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW WHEAT RIDGE 39.77N 105.10W
11/14/2008 M0.6 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0650 AM SNOW 13 NNW GLENDEVEY 40.95N 106.05W
11/14/2008 M0.7 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

HOHNHOLZ RANCH

0645 AM SNOW 14 WSW AGATE 39.39N 104.19W
11/14/2008 M3.0 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 AM SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
11/14/2008 M0.1 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FIRST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL FOR DENVER FOR THE 2008-09 SNOW
SEASON. LATEST FIRST SNOW IS STILL NOVEMBER 21ST 1934.

0605 AM SNOW 3 NW WESTMINSTER 39.91N 105.09W
11/14/2008 M0.2 INCH BROOMFIELD CO NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASURED AT STANLEY LAKE.

KBOU [142158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 142158
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
258 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0133 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AMHERST 40.68N 102.17W
11/14/2008 M60.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

BRANCHES DOWN

0122 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AKRON 40.16N 103.21W
11/14/2008 M62.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO ASOS

1142 AM SNOW 3 SW CONIFER 39.49N 105.34W
11/14/2008 M2.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

UPDATED REPORT

1030 AM SNOW 3 S AURORA 39.66N 104.81W
11/14/2008 M2.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0915 AM SNOW 4 NE THORNTON 39.93N 104.90W
11/14/2008 M0.2 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 AM SNOW SIMLA 39.14N 104.08W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW ROXBOROUGH PARK 39.44N 105.07W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO CO-OP OBSERVER

HEAVY SNOW AT 0800 AM

0847 AM SNOW 3 SE PINECLIFFE 39.90N 105.38W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

COAL CREEK CANYON, CRESCENT PARK

0830 AM SNOW 2 W PARKER 39.51N 104.80W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0801 AM SNOW E HIGHLANDS RANCH 39.55N 104.97W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0757 AM SNOW LOUVIERS 39.47N 105.00W
11/14/2008 M2.1 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 AM SNOW 6 NNW GOLDEN 39.82N 105.26W
11/14/2008 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

RALSTON RESERVOIR

0740 AM SNOW 2 S BOULDER 40.00N 105.25W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT THE DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH
BUILDING.

0730 AM SNOW GRANT 39.45N 105.67W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH PARK CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
11/14/2008 M2.9 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM SNOW 2 NW ARAPAHOE PARK 39.66N 104.71W
11/14/2008 M2.2 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW WHEAT RIDGE 39.77N 105.10W
11/14/2008 M0.6 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0650 AM SNOW 13 NNW GLENDEVEY 40.95N 106.05W
11/14/2008 M0.7 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

HOHNHOLZ RANCH

0645 AM SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
11/14/2008 M0.1 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FIRST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL FOR DENVER FOR THE 2008-09 SNOW
SEASON. LATEST FIRST SNOW IS STILL NOVEMBER 21ST 1934.

0645 AM SNOW 14 WSW AGATE 39.39N 104.19W
11/14/2008 M3.0 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 AM SNOW 3 NW WESTMINSTER 39.91N 105.09W
11/14/2008 M0.2 INCH BROOMFIELD CO NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASURED AT STANLEY LAKE.

KCYS [142148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 142148
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
248 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SE HARRISBURG 41.49N 103.66W
11/14/2008 M57 MPH BANNER NE MESONET

DDEAL

KCYS [142138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 142138
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
238 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1229 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE MOUNT EDNA 42.26N 103.78W
11/14/2008 M60 MPH SIOUX NE MESONET

DDEAL

KBOU [142119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 142119
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
219 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0133 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AMHERST 40.68N 102.17W
11/14/2008 M60.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

BRANCHES DOWN

0122 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AKRON 40.16N 103.21W
11/14/2008 M62.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO ASOS

1142 AM SNOW 3 SW CONIFER 39.49N 105.34W
11/14/2008 M2.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

UPDATED REPORT

1030 AM SNOW 3 S AURORA 39.66N 104.81W
11/14/2008 M2.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0915 AM SNOW SIMLA 39.14N 104.08W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 AM SNOW 4 NE THORNTON 39.93N 104.90W
11/14/2008 M0.2 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW ROXBOROUGH PARK 39.44N 105.07W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO CO-OP OBSERVER

HEAVY SNOW AT 0800 AM

0847 AM SNOW 3 SE PINECLIFFE 39.90N 105.38W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

COAL CREEK CANYON, CRESCENT PARK

0830 AM SNOW 2 W PARKER 39.51N 104.80W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0757 AM SNOW LOUVIERS 39.47N 105.00W
11/14/2008 M2.1 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 AM SNOW 6 NNW GOLDEN 39.82N 105.26W
11/14/2008 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

RALSTON RESERVOIR

0740 AM SNOW 2 S BOULDER 40.00N 105.25W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT THE DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH
BUILDING.

0730 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
11/14/2008 M2.9 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW GRANT 39.45N 105.67W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH PARK CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM SNOW 2 NW ARAPAHOE PARK 39.66N 104.71W
11/14/2008 M2.2 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW WHEAT RIDGE 39.77N 105.10W
11/14/2008 M0.6 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0650 AM SNOW 13 NNW GLENDEVEY 40.95N 106.05W
11/14/2008 M0.7 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

HOHNHOLZ RANCH

0645 AM SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
11/14/2008 M0.1 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FIRST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL FOR DENVER FOR THE 2008-09 SNOW
SEASON. LATEST FIRST SNOW IS STILL NOVEMBER 21ST 1934.

0645 AM SNOW 14 WSW AGATE 39.39N 104.19W
11/14/2008 M3.0 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 AM SNOW 3 NW WESTMINSTER 39.91N 105.09W
11/14/2008 M0.2 INCH BROOMFIELD CO NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASURED AT STANLEY LAKE.

BENTON

KSLC [142104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 142104
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
200 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.86W
11/14/2008 M66 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN - WILDCAT - 7703 FT

0258 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BURNTFORK 40.81N 110.07W
11/14/2008 M93 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

CHEPETA - 12120 FT

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TRESEND 41.06N 112.89W
11/14/2008 M60 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

LAKESIDE MOUNTAIN - 5039 FT

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.19N 111.87W
11/13/2008 M65 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN-STRAW TOP - 8999 FT

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALBION BASIN 40.57N 111.63W
11/13/2008 M62 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 10443 FT

0728 PM NON-TSTM WND GST EPHRAIM 39.31N 111.32W
11/13/2008 M72 MPH SANPETE UT MESONET

JOES VALLEY - 8700 FT

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBIRD 40.57N 111.64W
11/13/2008 M111 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 11066 FT

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2379

ACUS11 KWNS 142029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142028
GAZ000-ALZ000-142130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142028Z - 142130Z

...CORRECTED FOR BAD GRAPHIC...

ORGANIZING AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY A WEAK ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT.
GIVEN THE SHEAR OBSERVED...AND RATHER MOIST PROFILES...IT WOULD SEEM

PROBABLE THAT A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
MULTI-CELLULAR UPDRAFTS EVOLVING INTO LINEAR STORM MODE THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT AS
CONVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.

..DARROW.. 11/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 30718475 31738459 32358508 32758497 33328361 33108248
32148206 30668323 30718475

KVEF [142021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 142021
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1221 PM PST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E MOHAVE (AZM20) 34.97N 114.57W
11/14/2008 M40 MPH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS MEASURED AT 25 MPH.

1210 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNE MOHAVE (AZM20) 34.99N 114.59W
11/14/2008 M50 MPH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

GUSTS BEGAN AROUND 10AM.

KLABELLE

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2378

ACUS11 KWNS 142018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142017
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-142115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142017Z - 142115Z

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SWRN GA INTO EXTREME
ECNTRL AL...LARGELY DUE TO SWLY FEED OF MORE BUOYANT AIR ACROSS
STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME OVER SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT MVC NEAR
WHEATLAND/YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES IN ECNTRL AL. BOTH VIS AND RADAR
IMAGERY CLEARLY SUPPORT THIS FEATURE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY
ORGANIZING AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY A WEAK ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT.
GIVEN THE SHEAR OBSERVED...AND RATHER MOIST PROFILES...IT WOULD SEEM
PROBABLE THAT A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
MULTI-CELLULAR UPDRAFTS EVOLVING INTO LINEAR STORM MODE THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT AS
CONVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.

..DARROW.. 11/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...FGF...ABR...
BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 32988534 33618373 33498226 32218211 31088297 30498433
30818487 32108502 32988534

42600533 45320611 46300926 49610716 50710100 48469826 42790032
42600533

KBRO [142006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KBRO 142006
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
206 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0809 AM HAIL 2 SW DONNA 26.15N 98.07W
11/13/2008 M0.25 INCH HIDALGO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

PEA SIZE HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES SOUTHWEST OF DONNA.

0815 AM HAIL ALAMO 26.19N 98.12W
11/13/2008 M0.50 INCH HIDALGO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT ALAMO COUNTRY CLUB. ALSO HAD
2.20 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORM.

0844 AM HAIL DONNA 26.17N 98.05W
11/13/2008 E0.88 INCH HIDALGO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

PENNY TO NICKLE SIZED HAIL IN THE CITY OF DONNA. CAR
WINDSHIELD SHATTERED ON FREEWAY.

0849 AM HAIL 1 N ALAMO 26.20N 98.12W
11/13/2008 E0.75 INCH HIDALGO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

3/4 INCH HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF ALAMO.

0704 PM HAIL ZAPATA 26.89N 99.26W
11/13/2008 E0.75 INCH ZAPATA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL OCCURING AT TIME OF PHONE CALL TO
SHERIFF OFFICE

HART

KCYS [142003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 142003
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
103 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0849 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 30 S HARRISON 42.25N 103.88W
11/14/2008 M40.00 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 40 GUSTING TO 52 MPH.

0855 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 E HARRISON 42.69N 103.78W
11/14/2008 M40.00 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 40 GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

0955 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 E HARRISON 42.69N 103.78W
11/14/2008 M42.00 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 42 GUSTING TO 66 MPH.

1014 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 15 S CHADRON 42.61N 103.00W
11/14/2008 M40.00 MPH DAWES NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 40 GUSTING TO 52 MPH.

1025 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ALLIANCE 42.10N 102.87W
11/14/2008 M58.00 MPH BOX BUTTE NE ASOS

1035 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 E HARRISON 42.69N 103.78W
11/14/2008 M41.00 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 41 GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

1041 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 WNW SIDNEY 41.17N 103.09W
11/14/2008 M40.00 MPH CHEYENNE NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 40 GUSTING TO 44 MPH.

1051 AM HIGH SUST WINDS SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
11/14/2008 M44.00 MPH CHEYENNE NE ASOS

SUSTAINED 44 GUSTING TO 54 MPH.

1051 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E HEMINGFORD 42.32N 102.98W
11/14/2008 M60.00 MPH BOX BUTTE NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1053 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ALLIANCE 42.10N 102.87W
11/14/2008 M43.00 MPH BOX BUTTE NE ASOS

SUSTAINED 43 GUSTING TO 57 MPH.

1057 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
11/14/2008 M60.00 MPH CHEYENNE NE ASOS

1108 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E HEMINGFORD 42.32N 102.98W
11/14/2008 M61.00 MPH BOX BUTTE NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1109 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 30 S HARRISON 42.25N 103.88W
11/14/2008 M42.00 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 42 GUSTING TO 56 MPH.

1114 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 15 S CHADRON 42.61N 103.00W
11/14/2008 M42.00 MPH DAWES NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 42 GUSTING TO 55 MPH.

1131 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 SE HARRISBURG 41.50N 103.67W
11/14/2008 M40.00 MPH BANNER NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 40 GUSTING TO 55 MPH.

1135 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 E HARRISON 42.69N 103.78W
11/14/2008 M40.00 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 40 GUSTING TO 58 MPH.

1135 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 3 NW SCOTTSBLUFF 41.90N 103.70W
11/14/2008 M43.00 MPH SCOTTS BLUFF NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 43 GUSTING TO 53 MPH.

1145 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 19 W HEMINGFORD 42.32N 103.45W
11/14/2008 M40.00 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 40 GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

1148 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ALLIANCE 42.10N 102.87W
11/14/2008 M46.00 MPH BOX BUTTE NE ASOS

SUSTAINED 46 GUSTING TO 58 MPH.

1148 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ALLIANCE 42.10N 102.87W
11/14/2008 M46.00 MPH BOX BUTTE NE ASOS

SUSTAINED 46 GUSTING TO 58 MPH.

1201 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 WNW SIDNEY 41.17N 103.09W
11/14/2008 M42.00 MPH CHEYENNE NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 42 GUSTING TO 47 MPH.

HUTCHEON

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141956
SWODY1
SPC AC 141954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SERN STATES...

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
MORE RAPIDLY NEWD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL STATES. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND DE-AMPLIFY WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO BROADER
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE SERN CONUS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER LA WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY BEFORE INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY FROM SRN MS THROUGH CNTRL AL/GA/SC INTO
ERN NC WILL LIFT NWD/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SWLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT
A MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S/ AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IS PRESENT S OF SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE LIMITED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IN MANY AREAS.
HOWEVER...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OVER PARTS OF SRN AL...THE FL
PNHDL AND SWRN GA HAS RESULTED IN A ZONE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OWING
TO PERSISTENT WAA ACTING ON WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME ACROSS EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF GA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
45-55 KT/ IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
INSTABILITY IS QUITE SMALL. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY MORE
INTENSE/SUSTAINED STORMS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ANY THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH
RETREATING SURFACE FRONT WHERE NEAR GROUND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

..MEAD.. 11/14/2008

KTFX [141854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 141854
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1154 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.36N 113.11W
11/11/2008 M66.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

DEEP CREEK RAWS

0610 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BABB 48.86N 113.44W
11/12/2008 M68.00 MPH GLACIER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0731 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/12/2008 M52.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.67N 113.69W
11/12/2008 M103 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

LOGAN PASS

0851 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/12/2008 M59.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

59 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR EAST GLACIER
PARK.

0915 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BABB 48.86N 113.44W
11/12/2008 M94.00 MPH GLACIER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0959 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/12/2008 M78.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

WINDS FROM WSW SUSTAINED AT 58 MILES AN HOUR...WITH A
PEAK WIND GUST OF 78 MPH AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR EAST
GLACIER PARK.

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.36N 113.11W
11/12/2008 M99.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

DEEP CREEK RAWS

1044 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNE AUGUSTA 47.65N 112.29W
11/12/2008 M56.00 MPH TETON MT MESONET

1101 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/12/2008 M60.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT 52 MILES AN HOUR

1144 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 E LINCOLN 46.95N 112.41W
11/12/2008 M52.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR ROGERS PASS.

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 20 SSE CASCADE 47.00N 111.54W
11/12/2008 CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

TREE LIMBS 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.61W
11/12/2008 M59.00 MPH TETON MT MESONET

WIND FROM WEST...SUSTAINED AT 26 MILES AN HOUR

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E INVERNESS 48.56N 110.64W
11/12/2008 M52.00 MPH HILL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
INVERNESS.

0141 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 33 N SHELBY 48.99N 111.86W
11/12/2008 M54.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

54 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 WNW WHITLASH 48.94N 111.43W
11/12/2008 M69.00 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.67N 113.69W
11/12/2008 M114 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

LOGAN PASS

0323 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ESE MARYSVILLE 46.72N 112.18W
11/12/2008 M58.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND FROM SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED AROUND 40-45 MILES AN
HOUR

0554 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.32N 111.69W
11/12/2008 M57.00 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET

57 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE RAWS LOCATION NEAR ELKHORN.

0618 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 E BOZEMAN 45.68N 110.82W
11/12/2008 M54.00 MPH GALLATIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

54 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR BOZEMAN
PASS.

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.67N 113.69W
11/12/2008 M99.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

LOGAN PASS

1238 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW LEWISTOWN 47.04N 109.46W
11/13/2008 M53.00 MPH FERGUS MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE LEWISTOWN AIRPORT.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE BOZEMAN 45.72N 110.93W
11/13/2008 M62.00 MPH GALLATIN MT MESONET

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.36N 113.11W
11/13/2008 M70.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

DEEP CREEK RAWS

1242 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE DENTON 47.30N 109.85W
11/13/2008 M58.00 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
DENTON.

1257 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 E BOZEMAN 45.68N 110.82W
11/13/2008 M61.00 MPH GALLATIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

61 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON BOZEMAN HILL.

KTAE [141809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 141809
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
109 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 S TALLAHASSEE 30.37N 84.28W
11/14/2008 LEON FL PUBLIC

WATER OVER ROAD 1335 AIRPORT ROAD 1 1/2 FEET. CAR STALLED
IN WATER.

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD TALLAHASSEE 30.44N 84.28W
11/14/2008 LEON FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

2 FEET OF WATER COVERED SPRING HILL ROAD.

DUVAL

KCYS [141746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KCYS 141746
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1046 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW 2 NE CHEYENNE 41.17N 104.76W
11/14/2008 M5.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 25 NE CHEYENNE 41.40N 104.45W
11/14/2008 M5.8 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 2 SE CHEYENNE 41.12N 104.76W
11/14/2008 M3.8 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 2 SSE CHEYENNE 41.12N 104.78W
11/14/2008 M3.8 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 1 SSW CHEYENNE 41.13N 104.80W
11/14/2008 M5.5 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 3 SSW CHEYENNE 41.11N 104.81W
11/14/2008 M6.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 5 SSW CHEYENNE 41.08N 104.83W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 3 WNW CHEYENNE 41.16N 104.85W
11/14/2008 M5.5 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 11 SE HORSE CREEK 41.30N 105.03W
11/14/2008 M3.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 7 E CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.66W
11/14/2008 M6.3 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 7 S BURNS 41.09N 104.36W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 12 SSE HORSE CREEK 41.25N 105.09W
11/14/2008 M3.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 2 W BURNS 41.19N 104.40W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW BURNS 41.19N 104.36W
11/14/2008 M3.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 3 NW CHEYENNE 41.18N 104.83W
11/14/2008 M3.2 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 14 SSW KIMBALL 41.05N 103.76W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH KIMBALL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

3 TO 4 FOOT DRIFTS.

0800 AM SNOW 1 SE LARAMIE 41.30N 105.57W
11/14/2008 M1.8 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 3 E LARAMIE 41.31N 105.53W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 7 SSE LARAMIE 41.22N 105.53W
11/14/2008 M0.5 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 3 SW BURNS 41.16N 104.40W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 18 WNW CHEYENNE 41.24N 105.11W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 5 SSW CHEYENNE 41.08N 104.83W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW ENCAMPMENT 41.21N 106.79W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 12 W CHEYENNE 41.15N 105.02W
11/14/2008 M2.5 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 18 WNW CHEYENNE 41.24N 105.11W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HUTCHEON

KBOU [141745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 141745
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1045 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM SNOW 3 S AURORA 39.66N 104.81W
11/14/2008 M2.5 INCH ARAPAHOE CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0915 AM SNOW 4 NE THORNTON 39.93N 104.90W
11/14/2008 M0.2 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 AM SNOW SIMLA 39.14N 104.08W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0901 AM SNOW 3 SW CONIFER 39.49N 105.34W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW ROXBOROUGH PARK 39.44N 105.07W
11/14/2008 M4.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO CO-OP OBSERVER

HEAVY SNOW AT 0800 AM

0847 AM SNOW 3 SE PINECLIFFE 39.90N 105.38W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

COAL CREEK CANYON, CRESCENT PARK

0830 AM SNOW 2 W PARKER 39.51N 104.80W
11/14/2008 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0757 AM SNOW LOUVIERS 39.47N 105.00W
11/14/2008 M2.1 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 AM SNOW 6 NNW GOLDEN 39.82N 105.26W
11/14/2008 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

RALSTON RESERVOIR

0740 AM SNOW 2 S BOULDER 40.00N 105.25W
11/14/2008 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT THE DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH
BUILDING.

0730 AM SNOW GRANT 39.45N 105.67W
11/14/2008 M2.0 INCH PARK CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
11/14/2008 M2.9 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM SNOW 2 NW ARAPAHOE PARK 39.66N 104.71W
11/14/2008 M2.2 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW WHEAT RIDGE 39.77N 105.10W
11/14/2008 M0.6 INCH JEFFERSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0650 AM SNOW 13 NNW GLENDEVEY 40.95N 106.05W
11/14/2008 M0.7 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

HOHNHOLZ RANCH

0645 AM SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
11/14/2008 M0.1 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FIRST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL FOR DENVER FOR THE 2008-09 SNOW
SEASON. LATEST FIRST SNOW IS STILL NOVEMBER 21ST 1934.

0645 AM SNOW 14 WSW AGATE 39.39N 104.19W
11/14/2008 M3.0 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 AM SNOW 3 NW WESTMINSTER 39.91N 105.09W
11/14/2008 M0.2 INCH BROOMFIELD CO NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASURED AT STANLEY LAKE.

BENTON

KBYZ [141716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 141716
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1015 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1233 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SE HUNTLEY 45.78N 108.16W
11/13/2008 M58.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ARROW CREEK DOT

0100 PM SNOW 7 ESE BURGESS JUNCTION 44.72N 107.40W
11/13/2008 M11.6 INCH SHERIDAN WY MESONET

SUCKER CREEK SNOTEL...SNOWFALL IN A 9 HOUR PERIOD.

0155 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HARLOWTON 46.44N 109.83W
11/13/2008 M59.00 MPH WHEATLAND MT AWOS

0305 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 NNW DAYTON 45.03N 107.32W
11/13/2008 M59.00 MPH BIG HORN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ABERDEEN HILL DOT

JKL

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141715
SWODY2
SPC AC 141712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE PROGRESSING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AS 120-150 KT
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH BASE.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN A BROAD CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS SHIFTING EWD FROM THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS TO ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN
THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND MOVEMENT ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. NONETHELESS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD INTO
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OR ERN/SERN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND SERN ATLANTIC COASTS SATURDAY BEFORE
EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. FARTHER N...THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING AND
INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO PARTS OF GA/NRN FL...

DYNAMICALLY FORCED 50+ LLJ WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH
THE 60S WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND PERSISTENT SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE
REMAINING AOB 500-1000 J/KG.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EPISODIC TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTS ON A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS.
WITH TIME...THE WRN EDGE OF MORE INTENSE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE
INTO A SINGULAR OR SEGMENTED BAND WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MESOSCALE
ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL
SHEAR /BOTH THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND IN THE LOW LEVELS/ WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR
BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES.

CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS MESOVORTICIES. THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM PARTS OF ERN VA/TIDEWATER
REGION SWD ACROSS ERN NC INTO NERN SC WHERE THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THIS THREAT BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL WITH
NWD EXTENT INTO THE DE RIVER VALLEY DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY. OVER
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A
SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ANY STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS TO TRANSLATE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE GROUND. OVER GA/NRN FL...A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT.

GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND DYNAMICALLY-FORCED CHARACTER OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

..MEAD.. 11/14/2008

KTFX [141713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 141713
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1013 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 22 NE WHITE SULPHUR SPR 46.77N 110.58W
11/14/2008 M9.1 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

12 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 9.1 INCHES AT DEADMAN CREEK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 6450 FEET.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SW KINGS HILL PASS 46.83N 110.71W
11/14/2008 M14.0 INCH MEAGHER MT PUBLIC

14 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AT SHOWDOWN SKI AREA AND
KINGS HILL PASS.

0900 AM SNOW 25 N WHITE SULPHUR SPRI 46.91N 110.90W
11/14/2008 M14.1 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

12 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 14.1 INCHES AT ONION PARK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7410 FEET.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 21 NE WHITE SULPHUR SPR 46.76N 110.59W
11/14/2008 M8.8 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

12 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 8.8 INCHES AT SPUR PARK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8100 FEET.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 26 N WHITE SULPHUR SPRI 46.92N 110.90W
11/14/2008 M14.7 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

12 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 14.7 INCHES AT THE STRINGER CREEK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 6550 FEET.

HOENISCH

KCYS [141710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 141710
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1010 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2008