Friday, November 14, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141956
SWODY1
SPC AC 141954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SERN STATES...

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
MORE RAPIDLY NEWD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL STATES. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND DE-AMPLIFY WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO BROADER
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE SERN CONUS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER LA WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY BEFORE INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY FROM SRN MS THROUGH CNTRL AL/GA/SC INTO
ERN NC WILL LIFT NWD/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SWLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT
A MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S/ AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IS PRESENT S OF SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE LIMITED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IN MANY AREAS.
HOWEVER...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OVER PARTS OF SRN AL...THE FL
PNHDL AND SWRN GA HAS RESULTED IN A ZONE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OWING
TO PERSISTENT WAA ACTING ON WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME ACROSS EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF GA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
45-55 KT/ IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
INSTABILITY IS QUITE SMALL. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY MORE
INTENSE/SUSTAINED STORMS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ANY THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH
RETREATING SURFACE FRONT WHERE NEAR GROUND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

..MEAD.. 11/14/2008

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