Saturday, July 3, 2010

KABR [040223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 040223
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
923 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W OACOMA 43.80N 99.42W
07/03/2010 M67 MPH LYMAN SD MESONET


&&

$$

ATG

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KAMA [040213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 040213
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
913 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM FLASH FLOOD PALO DURO CANYON 34.95N 101.67W
07/03/2010 RANDALL TX PARK SERVICE

PALO DURO CANYON STATE PARK RANGERS REPORTED WATER
CROSSINGS 2 THROUGH 6 ARE CLOSED IN THE PARK DUE TO
HEAVY RUN OFF. THEY ALSO NOTED THAT 5 FEET OF WATER WAS
FLOWING ACROSS WATER CROSSINGS 5 AND 6.

0502 PM FLASH FLOOD PALO DURO CANYON 34.95N 101.67W
07/03/2010 RANDALL TX PARK SERVICE

LOW WATER CROSSINGS 3 THROUGH 6 ARE BARRICADED


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000770 AMA1000771

$$

LG

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KABR [040148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 040148
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
848 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N PRESHO 43.94N 100.06W
07/03/2010 LYMAN SD EMERGENCY MNGR

BUILDING MOVED OFF OF FOUNDATION...60 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE
AROUND PRESHO.


&&

$$

ATG

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KUNR [040147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 040147
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
747 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND GST WINNER 43.37N 99.86W
07/03/2010 E60.00 MPH TRIPP SD TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS OCCURRED FROM 830 PM CDT TO 840 PM CDT. ALSO
HAD HEAVY RAIN.

0732 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE WINNER 43.38N 99.84W
07/03/2010 M58.00 MPH TRIPP SD ASOS


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1194

ACUS11 KWNS 040146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040145
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-040245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND NERN NEB...ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441...

VALID 040145Z - 040245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441
CONTINUES.

A MCS POSITIONED OVER S CNTRL SD/ N CNTRL NEB WILL PROPAGATE EWD
INTO THE WW AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH A
LESSER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL STILL EXIST. 01Z SUBJECTIVE SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO
NWRN NEB. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES PER
00Z ABR AND OAX SOUNDINGS/ IS IN PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WILL CREATE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP FARTHER N IN NERN SD ...BUT AS
FORCED ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER WRN NEB...AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO....WITH
EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NERN SD. WITH
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CORES.

..ROGERS.. 07/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 41740008 45939997 45939683 41769721 41740008

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KGGW [040132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 040132
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
732 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 AM HAIL 7 SW LINDSAY 47.15N 105.26W
07/03/2010 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0215 AM TSTM WND DMG 12 SE FROID 48.21N 104.31W
07/03/2010 ROOSEVELT MT PUBLIC

TREE FELL ON ROOF KNOCKING OFF SOME SHINGLES.


&&

$$

TEDJ

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KUNR [040124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 040124
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
723 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG WITTEN 43.44N 100.09W
07/03/2010 TRIPP SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

10 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN. WINDS ESTIMATED TO
70 MPH.


&&

$$

BUNKERS

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KLBF [040122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 040122
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
822 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 PM TORNADO 15 SW GORDON 42.65N 102.41W
07/03/2010 SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

0555 PM HAIL 5 E GORDON 42.81N 102.11W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH SHERIDAN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 PM HAIL 20 WSW MERRIMAN 42.81N 102.06W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

0625 PM HAIL 5 NE MERRIMAN 42.97N 101.63W
07/03/2010 E1.75 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

0630 PM TSTM WND GST MERRIMAN 42.92N 101.70W
07/03/2010 E60.00 MPH CHERRY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 50 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PEA
SIZE HAIL.

0630 PM HAIL MERRIMAN 42.92N 101.70W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH CHERRY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0805 PM TSTM WND GST 15 SE VALENTINE 42.72N 100.34W
07/03/2010 E70.00 MPH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

CJS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1193

ACUS11 KWNS 040122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040121
TXZ000-040345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TEX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 040121Z - 040345Z

RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

EARLIER VSBY SATELLITE AND LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A SMALL BUT
DISTINCT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LBB. THIS FEATURE HAD BEEN MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 12 KT THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE IT SOUTH OF CDS AT 10Z.
DESPITE THE LACK OF LIGHTNING...VERY MOIST VERTICAL SOUNDINGS...PW
VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION. ADDITIONALLY...850 MB SELY
WINDS AT 30 KT WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MAINTENANCE OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE AND THE AFFINITY FOR THESE
WARM CORE SYSTEMS TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINS NEAR THEIR CENTERS AT
NIGHT...SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HOUR
MAY PERSIST OVER SOME AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS.

..IMY.. 07/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32800223 33230273 33790229 34300172 34490085 34430022
34220007 33510007 33130049 32940105 32800223

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KLBF [040122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 040122
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
821 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM TSTM WND GST 15 SE VALENTINE 42.72N 100.34W
07/03/2010 E70 MPH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

CJS

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KUNR [040121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 040121
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
721 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ESE OKREEK 43.37N 100.34W
07/03/2010 M78.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 62 MPH AND 78 MPH WERE REPORTED FROM
745 PM CDT TO 814 PM CDT.


&&

$$

BUNKERS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1192

ACUS11 KWNS 040119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040118
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-040245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ND...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...

VALID 040118Z - 040245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440
CONTINUES.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WATCH 440 HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CAPPING AND GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. MOST INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND...DESPITE THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN ERN ND
ATTM...UPDRAFTS HAVE ENCOUNTERED CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION.

THERE ARE CONTINUING ATTEMPTS AT DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT FROM SERN ND INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MN. ONE OF THE STRONGER CELLS HAS ALSO MAINTAINED SOME
INTEGRITY IN THE NORTH OF MN...NOW MOVING FROM KITTSON COUNTY INTO
ROSEAU COUNTY.

LATEST INDICATIONS IN OBJECTIVE DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT 1-2
HOURS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS STRONG INHIBITION IS SLOWLY OVERCOME AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM NERN MT AND PROVIDES AN INCREASE
IN BACKGROUND ASCENT NECESSARY TO AID DEEPER LIFT ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN DEGREE OF AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SHEAR...RESULTING STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN ROBUST
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE.

..CARBIN.. 07/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 48999886 48979374 45919562 45840049 48999886

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KUNR [040058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 040058
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
657 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 6 WNW DOWNTOWN NEWCASTL 43.89N 104.31W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH WESTON WY PUBLIC

PEA HAIL FELL FROM 415 TO 417 PM MDT. ALSO HAD WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

0522 PM HAIL BLACK HAWK 44.15N 103.32W
07/03/2010 E1.00 INCH MEADE SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0539 PM HAIL 1 N BLACK HAWK 44.18N 103.32W
07/03/2010 E0.50 INCH MEADE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE HAIL FELL FROM 539 TO 542 PM MDT.

0540 PM HAIL BLACK HAWK 44.15N 103.32W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH MEADE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA HAIL FELL FROM 540 TO 543 PM MDT.

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW PARMELEE 43.30N 101.05W
07/03/2010 E60.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS OCCURRED BETWEEN 615 AND 625 PM MDT. ALSO HAD
MARBLE SIZE /0.50 INCH/ HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

0621 PM TSTM WND GST W ROSEBUD 43.23N 100.85W
07/03/2010 M74.00 MPH TODD SD MESONET

RECORDED BY ROSEBUD APRSWXNET MESONET SITE ON WEST SIDE
OF ROSEBUD.

0627 PM TSTM WND GST ROSEBUD 43.23N 100.85W
07/03/2010 E60.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO REPORTED HEAVY RAIN.


&&

$$

BUNKERS

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KCYS [040056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 040056
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
656 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0654 PM HAIL GURLEY 41.32N 102.97W
07/03/2010 M1.00 INCH CHEYENNE NE EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

RMAZUR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040047
SWODY1
SPC AC 040046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL-NRN PLAINS...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER WY/WRN SD WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED IN CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NE CO TO SCNTRL SD EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ENE ALONG NRN
EXTENTS OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE...AND PERHAPS BEHIND IT CLOSER
TO THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ERN SD...EXTREME
SERN ND AND WRN MN. 00Z ABR SOUNDING EXHIBITS AROUND 7 DEG C PER KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES TO 2600 J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

FARTHER S...SRN EXTENT OF EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB AS COLD POOLS CONTINUE TO MATURE. DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. EVENTUALLY...STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A MORE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT SURGING NWD FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE
OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH TIME AT LONGITUDES FARTHER E IN NEB.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
RELATIVELY MOIST...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL
IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN WY EARLY THIS EVENING.
A WEAK 700 MB IMPULSE TRANSLATING NE WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY
MID-EVENING AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
NEXT WAVE...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE WRN STATES TROUGH AND EJECT NE INTO WY LATER TONIGHT. MORE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN/ERN WY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL.

..RACY.. 07/04/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1191

ACUS11 KWNS 040006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040006
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-040100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...

VALID 040006Z - 040100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439
CONTINUES.

COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEB...WITH 00Z
SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS PLACING A MESOLOW NEAR SNY...AND A COLD
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NNE INTO S CNTRL SD. TWO
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CURRENTLY EXIST WITHIN THE WW...WITH
ONE OVER MORRILL AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES NEB AND ANOTHER OVER CHERRY
COUNTY NEB AND BENNETT/TODD COUNTIES SD. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
CLUSTERS...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY...WITH A COLD POOL RAPIDLY SURGING EWD ACROSS CHERRY
COUNTY.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO...WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT/MESOLOW...WHERE A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG/ IS IN PLACE.
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS /WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS/ TRANSLATING ENEWD.

..ROGERS.. 07/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40910079 40920406 43810423 43810082 40910079

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KMEG [040004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 040004
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
704 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM FLASH FLOOD SW MUNFORD 35.45N 89.80W
07/03/2010 TIPTON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

PARTS OF MCCORMICK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER FLOODING
BETWEEN MUNFORD AVE AND CAMPGROUND ROAD


&&

$$

MRM

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KCYS [032358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 032358
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
558 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SE BROADWATER 41.54N 102.77W
07/03/2010 M63.00 MPH MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KGLD [032352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 032352
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
552 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM TSTM WND GST GOODLAND 39.35N 101.71W
07/03/2010 M60 MPH SHERMAN KS ASOS


&&

$$

CJS

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KCYS [032347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 032347
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
546 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM TSTM WND DMG BRIDGEPORT 41.67N 103.10W
07/03/2010 MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER POLES DOWN ACROSS MAIN ST.

0535 PM HAIL BRIDGEPORT 41.67N 103.10W
07/03/2010 M1.75 INCH MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL COMPLETELY COVERED THE
GROUND.

0540 PM FLASH FLOOD BRIDGEPORT 41.67N 103.10W
07/03/2010 MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER FROM CURB TO CURB OVER MAIN ST.


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KCHS [032339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 032339
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
739 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM RIP CURRENTS EDISTO BEACH 32.49N 80.32W
07/03/2010 COLLETON SC OTHER FEDERAL

*** 1 FATAL, 1 INJ *** FOUR PEOPLE WERE CAUGHT IN A
POSSIBLE RIP CURRENT AROUND 12 PM EDT NEAR THE PIER AT
EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. TWO WERE ABLE TO FREE
THEMSELVES FROM THE POSSIBLE RIP CURRENT...ONE WAS
RESCUED BUT INJURED AND THE OTHER DROWNED. THE DROWNING
VICTIM WAS A 19-YEAR OLD MALE. DETAILS OF THE SECOND
INDIVIDUAL WHO WAS INJURED IS UKNOWN AT THIS TIME BUT WAS
SENT TO THE MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA FOR
TREATMENT. THIS INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE AS MORE DETAILS ARE RECEIVED.


&&

$$

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KCYS [032338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 032338
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
538 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND GST BRIDGEPORT 41.67N 103.10W
07/03/2010 E65.00 MPH MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD BRICKER LAKES 41.69N 103.07W
07/03/2010 MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER ROAD ADJACENT TO LAKE.

0534 PM HAIL BRIDGEPORT 41.67N 103.10W
07/03/2010 M1.00 INCH MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KGLD [032335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 032335
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG GOODLAND 39.35N 101.71W
07/03/2010 SHERMAN KS PUBLIC

4 INCH TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN NEAR 10TH STREET.


&&

$$

JMARTIN

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KGLD [032335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 032335
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HAIL GOODLAND 39.35N 101.71W
07/03/2010 E0.88 INCH SHERMAN KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

CJS

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KLBF [032334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 032334
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HAIL 5 NE MERRIMAN 42.97N 101.63W
07/03/2010 E1.75 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

0630 PM TSTM WND GST MERRIMAN 42.92N 101.70W
07/03/2010 E60 MPH CHERRY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 50 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PEA
SIZE HAIL.

0630 PM HAIL MERRIMAN 42.92N 101.70W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH CHERRY NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CJS

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KLBF [032330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 032330
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL 20 WSW MERRIMAN 42.81N 102.06W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

CJS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441

WWUS20 KWNS 032324
SEL1
SPC WW 032324
NEZ000-SDZ000-040600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 620 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 25 MILES EAST OF BURWELL NEBRASKA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...WW 440...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE COMPLEX OF STORMS NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER...EAST
OF CDR... ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY ERN SD LATER THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM...WITH WIND DAMAGE
THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO...WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AND UPPER
IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. THE WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...IMY

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KCHS [032321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 032321
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM RIP CURRENTS ISLE OF PALMS 32.79N 79.79W
07/03/2010 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

1 RIP CURRENT SPOTTED NEAR 25TH AND 26TH STREET.


&&

$$

JHP

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KLBF [032256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 032256
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
556 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 PM TORNADO 15 SW GORDON 42.65N 102.41W
07/03/2010 SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

0555 PM HAIL 5 E GORDON 42.81N 102.11W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH SHERIDAN NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CJS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1190

ACUS11 KWNS 032228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032227
SDZ000-NEZ000-032330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SD AND NRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032227Z - 032330Z

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SO A WW IS LIKELY BY 23 TO 00Z.

AT 22Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM WEST OF ABR SWWD TO NEAR BFF IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER
WRN NEB NEAR THE FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE...EVIDENT IN WATER IMAGERY OVER ERN WY...SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH
SD. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING...THUS FAR...HAS BEEN WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE WAVE OVER WY SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
THE 35-40 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE
WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY EVEN SUPPORT
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
INITIAL STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL... THOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES THIS EVENING...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A
LINEAR MCS...WITH WIND DAMAGE THEN BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..IMY.. 07/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 45879905 45749767 45169701 42589754 42100047 42980074
43800086 45670078 45879905

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440

WWUS20 KWNS 032224
SEL0
SPC WW 032224
MNZ000-NDZ000-040600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 520 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ROSEAU MINNESOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...

DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD ERN ND AND WRN MN OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 3000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR TODAY BY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/CAPPING...AND WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...RECENT
INDICATIONS IN OBJECTIVE DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CAP
HAS WEAKENED AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 30KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...CARBIN

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KCYS [032224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 032224
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
424 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM HAIL 3 N HEMINGFORD 42.36N 103.08W
07/03/2010 M1.00 INCH BOX BUTTE NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KCYS [032221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 032221
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
421 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 2 N HEMINGFORD 42.35N 103.08W
07/03/2010 M0.88 INCH BOX BUTTE NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KCYS [032209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 032209
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
409 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 17 WNW ALLIANCE 42.19N 103.18W
07/03/2010 M1.00 INCH BOX BUTTE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0405 PM HAIL BRIDGEPORT 41.67N 103.10W
07/03/2010 E1.00 INCH MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30
MIN. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35-45 MPH.


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KAMA [032208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 032208
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
508 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM FLASH FLOOD PALO DURO CANYON 34.95N 101.67W
07/03/2010 RANDALL TX PARK SERVICE

LOW WATER CROSSINGS 3 THROUGH 6 ARE BARRICADED


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000771

$$

LG

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KCYS [032205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 032205
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
404 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL BRIDGEPORT 41.67N 103.10W
07/03/2010 M0.88 INCH MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0402 PM HAIL 2 N BRIDGEPORT 41.70N 103.10W
07/03/2010 M1.00 INCH MORRILL NE CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KLBF [032045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 032045
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
344 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 WSW GRANT 40.81N 101.85W
07/02/2010 PERKINS NE PUBLIC

A TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED SEVERAL GUSTNADOES THAT DID
DAMAGE AT THE WILSON FEED LOT. AT THE FEED LOT THE
GUSTNADOES DESTROYED A RAISED, OPEN FACED STORAGE
BUILDING. THE BUILDING FRAME SLAMMED INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF A LARGE GARAGE. DAMAGE ALSO INCLUDED DESTROYING
AN EMPTY 1200 POUND STORAGE GRAIN BIN, MOVED A SCALE
HOUSE BUILDING APPROXIMATELY TWO INCHES ON ITS FOUNDATION
AND DAMAGED THE FOUNDATION TO A THIRD STORAGE BUILDING.


&&

$$

TKECK

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KAMA [032041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 032041
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
341 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM FLASH FLOOD PALO DURO CANYON 34.95N 101.67W
07/03/2010 RANDALL TX PARK SERVICE

PALO DURO CANYON STATE PARK RANGERS REPORTED WATER
CROSSINGS 2 THROUGH 6 ARE CLOSED IN THE PARK DUE TO
HEAVY RUN OFF. THEY ALSO NOTED THAT 5 FEET OF WATER WAS
FLOWING ACROSS WATER CROSSINGS 5 AND 6.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000770

$$

BROST

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KGGW [032011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KGGW 032011
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
211 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM HAIL 6 S DAGMAR 48.50N 104.20W
07/03/2010 E1.75 INCH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

DENTED VEHICLES AND SOME HOUSE SIDING DAMAGE

1230 AM HAIL 13 W CIRCLE 47.42N 105.88W
07/03/2010 E0.75 INCH MCCONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME CROP DAMAGE...NO STRONG WINDS

1230 AM TSTM WND DMG 17 N ENID 47.94N 104.78W
07/03/2010 RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS KNOCKED OVER OIL FIELD EQUIPMENT
AND SOME SMALL TREES.


&&

$$

MATTM

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KGGW [032005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 032005
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
205 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 AM HAIL 21 E COHAGEN 47.05N 106.17W
07/03/2010 E0.25 INCH GARFIELD MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0.3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE WIND

1230 PM HAIL 6 S DAGMAR 48.50N 104.20W
07/03/2010 E1.75 INCH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

DENTED VEHICLES AND SOME HOUSE SIDING DAMAGE

1230 PM HAIL 13 W CIRCLE 47.42N 105.88W
07/03/2010 E0.75 INCH MCCONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME CROP DAMAGE...NO STRONG WINDS

1230 PM TSTM WND DMG 17 N ENID 47.94N 104.78W
07/03/2010 RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS KNOCKED OVER OIL FIELD EQUIPMENT
AND SOME SMALL TREES.


&&

$$

MATTM

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KKEY [032004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 032004
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
404 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0339 PM WATER SPOUT 5 NE PIDGEON KEY 24.76N 81.10W
07/03/2010 GMZ031 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

THREE WATERSPOUTS WERE REPORTED BY TRAIN SPOTTERS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PIDGEON KEY. THESE
WATERSPOUTS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS THAT FORMED
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 439

WWUS20 KWNS 032001
SEL9
SPC WW 032001
NEZ000-SDZ000-040300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA TO 75 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHADRON NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER/INTENSITY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE E
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA COUPLED WITH CONTINUED HEATING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOPS EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
INITIALLY...PARTICULARLY WITH SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASES WILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25020.


...HALES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031930
SWODY1
SPC AC 031928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS...

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REMAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
ACROSS WY HAS AIDED IN RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NIOBRARA/PLATTE/GOSHEN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NEWD AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
MOISTURE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS.
ADDITIONALLY...NELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY AID CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL SD WHERE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. LATEST ALGORITHMS SUGGEST HAIL MAY
EXCEED 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ACROSS THIS REGION. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN THICKER CLOUD CANOPY
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO 1630Z OUTLOOK ARE EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 07/03/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010/

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WRN U.S TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AS S/WV TROUGH EMERGES OUT INTO
NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. A STREAM OF VERY MOIST AIR WITH PW/S UPWARDS
TO 1.75 INCHES CONTINUES TO FLOW NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONT. FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN ND SSWWD THRU CENTRAL
SD TO NWRN NEB.

STRONGER FLOW AND ENERGY FROM APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN TO W OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF MDT
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
INITIATE SURFACE BASED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON
FROM NWRN CORNER MN TO CENTRAL SD AND WRN NEB. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RANGING UPWARD FROM AROUND 8C/KM NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TO ABOVE
9 C/KM WRN NEB...COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A PRIMARILY DIURNAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WRN NEB INTO SRN
SD WHERE LAPSE RATES AND CAPES WILL BE THE GREATEST. ISOLATED VERY
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE PRIMARILY DIURNAL REGIME WILL BE IN THE NRN
PLAINS WHERE A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS MN GIVEN
THE APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1189

ACUS11 KWNS 031908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031907
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND...NWRN AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
MN...AND NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031907Z - 032000Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON /21-23Z/.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN ERN ND
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED IN SERN MANITOBA...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH
ERN ND /NEAR JMS/ INTO CENTRAL SD. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE TO AT OR ABOVE 90 F...SBCINH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWING THIS
TREND UNDERWAY FROM ERN SD/SERN ND INTO WRN MN. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR
MASS WILL SOON BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD WILL BE
NEEDED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT. LIGHTNING DATA SINCE 1745Z SHOWED TWO BRIEF TSTMS OVER ERN
ND...WITH BOTH CELLS LOCATED INVOF THE FRONT OVER FAR NERN ND AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ND.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT AS SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO
FAVOR MULTICELLS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO
THIS REGION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 07/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45369944 46659861 48449746 48999723 49029500 47589533
46569571 45199663 44769823 45369944

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KCHS [031900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 031900
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0259 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
07/03/2010 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL RIP CURRENTS SPOTTED SOUTH OF THE PIER.


&&

$$

JHP

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KBOU [031856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 031856
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1256 PM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE LAST CHANCE 39.78N 103.51W
07/02/2010 E60.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES IN VICINITY

0328 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M61.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0335 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

2.11 INCHES OF RAIN

0335 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.57W
07/02/2010 E5.50 INCH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL DAMAGED HALF OF THE CORN CROP

0353 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE AMHERST 40.70N 102.14W
07/02/2010 M63.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JK

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KCHS [031841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 031841
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
241 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM RIP CURRENTS ISLE OF PALMS 32.79N 79.79W
07/03/2010 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

1 RIP CURRENT REPORTED NEAR THE PIER.


&&

$$

JHP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1188

ACUS11 KWNS 031802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031802
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-031930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031802Z - 031930Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SERN WY...THE NEB
PANHANDLE...AND PERHAPS FAR SWRN SD. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...THEN EXTENDING W-SW THROUGH THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO
SERN WY. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE LOW 80S F
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION /EVIDENT BY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/. AS A
RESULT...CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER SERN WY...WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED DURING THE LAST 30 MIN. MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEB...AND WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE PANHANDLE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
BE DRAWN WWD TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AIDING IN STORM
INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EMANATING
EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILER DATA INDICATES
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW AOA 40 KT...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. INITIAL SVR THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVER SERN WY WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST...BUT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NEB PANHANDLE/WRN NEB BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT
CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE.

..GARNER.. 07/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 41070586 41720650 42700623 43320502 43330295 42330206
41600223 41020321 40970488 41070586

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KBOU [031730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 031730
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1130 AM MDT SAT JUL 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE LAST CHANCE 39.78N 103.51W
07/02/2010 E60.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES IN VICINITY

0328 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M61.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0335 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

2.11 INCHES OF RAIN

0335 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.57W
07/02/2010 E5.50 INCH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL DAMAGED HALF OF THE CORN CROP

0353 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE AMHERST 40.70N 102.14W
07/02/2010 M63.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031717
SWODY2
SPC AC 031716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NEWD ACROSS TX/OK/KS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SURGE EXCEED 2 INCHES AND LAPSE RATES ARE ACCORDINGLY
QUITE WEAK. THIS WILL POSE INSTABILITY ISSUES SUNDAY AS HEATING
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE.
THE STRONGEST ZONE OF HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN NM
INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE GREATEST RISK
FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
STRONG MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS...OR PERHAPS A WEAK SUPERCELL ACROSS
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF ERN CO/WRN KS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WRN PLUME OF MOISTURE. EVEN SO FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL WARRANT
MORE THAN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INADEQUATE FOR MORE THAN LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

..DARROW.. 07/03/2010

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