Monday, October 3, 2011

KBOI [040323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 040323
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 PM MDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM TSTM WND GST 5 S TWIN FALLS 42.49N 114.46W
10/03/2011 M58 MPH TWIN FALLS ID ASOS

58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY KTWF ASOS AND CONFIRMED BY
TOWER PERSONEL. WIND GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A RAIN
SHOWER. NO LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED.


&&

$$

JBREIDEN

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KKEY [040216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 040216
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1016 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/03/2011 M39 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 39 MPH...FROM THE EAST WAS
MEASURED AT THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

BS

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KKEY [040147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 040147
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
946 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 PM TSTM WND DMG CUDJOE KEY 24.67N 81.50W
10/03/2011 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF-DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
SEVERAL FALLEN 3-INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS AND NEWSPAPER
STAND BOXES BLOWN OVER ALONG JOLLY ROGER DRIVE ON CUDJOE
KEY.


&&

$$

ULRICH

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KPIH [040122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 040122
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
722 PM MDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0647 PM TSTM WND GST 10 W ARCO 43.63N 113.50W
10/03/2011 M48 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KPIH [040033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 040033
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
633 PM MDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM TSTM WND GST 25 SE MALTA 42.05N 113.03W
10/03/2011 M45 MPH CASSIA ID MESONET

ITD JUNIPER INTERCHANGE


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KKEY [040025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 040025
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
824 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0727 PM MARINE TSTM WIND KEY WEST 24.56N 81.78W
10/03/2011 M41 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL ASOS

THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM AT THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED A 36-KNOT WIND GUST AT
727PM LOCAL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA.

0730 PM MARINE TSTM WIND KEY WEST 24.56N 81.78W
10/03/2011 M39 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL MESONET

WEATHER OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST RECORDED A 34-KNOT WIND GUST
AT 730PM LOCAL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

$$

ULRICH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040021
SWODY1
SPC AC 040019

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH THAT IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST
AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER S...A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY INDUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A
MODIFIED COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR S FL. ACROSS THE WEST...BROAD HEIGHT
FALLS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO
POOR LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY NATION-WIDE...NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

..HURLBUT/BROYLES.. 10/04/2011

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KPIH [040018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 040018
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
618 PM MDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST ARCO 43.63N 113.30W
10/03/2011 M47 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

INL SITE


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KPIH [032351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 032351
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
551 PM MDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND GST CRATERS OF MOON 43.42N 113.53W
10/03/2011 M55 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KMFR [032315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 032315
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 PM PDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM HEAVY RAIN KERBY 42.19N 123.65W
10/03/2011 M0.86 INCH JOSEPHINE OR PUBLIC

1730 PDT ON 10/2 UNTIL 1530 PDT ON 10/3. SPOTTER
J022...BILL BOX. PROGRAM WOULD NOT LET ME ENTER HIS
SPOTTER NUMBER.

0414 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
10/03/2011 M1.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 TOTAL ENDING AT 1530 PDT. ELEVATION 1650 FEET.


&&

$$

STOCKTON

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KPIH [032252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 032252
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
452 PM MDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NNW RUPERT 42.74N 113.72W
10/03/2011 E40 MPH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN - BROKEN BRANCHES


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KPSR [032251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 032251
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
351 PM MST MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0304 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E EL CENTRO 32.77N 115.47W
10/03/2011 IMPERIAL CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED POWER POLES AND LIVE
LINES DOWN ALONG BOWKER RD NEAR INTERSTATE 8.

0324 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E EL CENTRO 32.78N 115.47W
10/03/2011 IMPERIAL CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS LARGE TREES ACROSS
ROADWAY NEAR ROSS AND BOWKER ROADS...NO DIAMETER OF TREES
OR NUMBER OF TREES INCLUDED IN CHP REPORT.


&&

$$

JNOLTE

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KVEF [032227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 032227
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
327 PM PDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0241 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW GREEN VALLEY 36.11N 115.12W
10/03/2011 M47.00 MPH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 47
MPH AT FLAMINGO AND EASTERN. THE SPOTTER REPORTED NO
DAMAGES FROM THE WIND GUSTS.


&&

$$

HURLEY

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KVEF [032226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 032226
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
326 PM PDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..


&&

$$

JHURLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031940
SWODY1
SPC AC 031938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS UPDATE...WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GENERAL THUNDER LINE. OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

..GOSS.. 10/03/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011/

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
STACKED UPR LOW OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION WILL BEGIN A SLOW DRIFT ENE
TDY AS DEEPENING UPR TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE WRN STATES.

SCTD TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TDY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPR TROUGH AND INVOF THE WAVE TRAIN OF
SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSES MOVING NWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. MEAGER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS.

OTHER ISOLD-WDLY SCTD TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AMIDST A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT TIED TO THE
MID-ATLC SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...OTHER ISOLD STORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL KEYS/SW MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY IN A
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ELY FLOW REGIME VCNTY AN OLD FRONT. FINALLY...
SPORADIC STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT COASTAL WA/ORE/FAR N CA AS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE W COAST TROUGH BRUSH ACROSS THE REGION. IN ALL OF
THE ABOVE REGIONS...SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

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KKEY [031850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 031850
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
249 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM WATER SPOUT 2 SSE BIG COPPITT KEY 24.57N 81.65W
10/02/2011 GMZ044 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER AND AN OFF-DUTY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE EACH OBSERVED A THIN WATERSPOUT
OVER HAWK CHANNEL SOUTH OF BIG COPPITT KEY. DURATION 4
MINUTES.

0220 PM WATER SPOUT 5 WSW KEY WEST 24.53N 81.84W
10/03/2011 GMZ044 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF-DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A
BRIEF...THIN WATERSPOUT OVER HAWK CHANNEL ABOUT TWO OR
THREE MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FORT ZACHARY TAYLOR STATE
PARK. DURATION ONE MINUTE.


&&

$$

KASPER

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KALY [031835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 031835
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
234 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1246 PM FLASH FLOOD OLIVEBRIDGE 41.93N 74.21W
09/28/2011 ULSTER NY 911 CALL CENTER

FOOTBRIDGE TO PERSONAL RESIDENCE WASHED AWAY WITH PERSON
ON IT. PERSON WAS RESCUED. EVENT OCCURRED AT INTERSECTION
OF PRIVATE ROAD 3 AND WATSON HOLLOW ROAD.


&&

$$

BEW

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KFGZ [031738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 031738
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1038 AM MST MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM HAIL 1 W HEBER-OVERGAARD 34.41N 110.59W
10/02/2011 E0.88 INCH NAVAJO AZ PUBLIC

FROM EVENT ON SUNDAY OCT 2ND.


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100266

$$

DGV

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031710
SWODY2
SPC AC 031709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW OFF THE WRN CANADA COAST DIGS QUICKLY
SSEWD TOWARD COASTAL CA WITH TIME...A LEAD SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE WRN STATES...WEAKENING AS IT IMPINGES ON A
PERSISTENT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED
INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NEWD -- REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING
LEAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE NW COAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH
DIGS TOWARD THE AREA.

FARTHER E...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF ERN NEW ENGLAND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS S FL NEAR A LINGERING SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN
ALL AREAS HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK WITH
LITTLE SEVERE THREAT EVIDENT.

..GOSS.. 10/03/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031618
SWODY1
SPC AC 031617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
STACKED UPR LOW OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION WILL BEGIN A SLOW DRIFT ENE
TDY AS DEEPENING UPR TROUGH EDGES ACROSS THE WRN STATES.

SCTD TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TDY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPR TROUGH AND INVOF THE WAVE TRAIN OF
SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSES MOVING NWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. MEAGER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS.

OTHER ISOLD-WDLY SCTD TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AMIDST A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT TIED TO THE
MID-ATLC SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...OTHER ISOLD STORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL KEYS/SW MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY IN A
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ELY FLOW REGIME VCNTY AN OLD FRONT. FINALLY...
SPORADIC STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT COASTAL WA/ORE/FAR N CA AS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE W COAST TROUGH BRUSH ACROSS THE REGION. IN ALL OF
THE ABOVE REGIONS...SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..RACY/COHEN.. 10/03/2011

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KMFR [031510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 031510
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
810 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
10/03/2011 M1.50 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING 8AM.


&&

$$

SPENCER

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KMFR [031431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 031431
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
731 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
10/03/2011 M0.70 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SINCE 11 PM LAST NIGHT.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031234
SWODY1
SPC AC 031232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL US. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME...WEAK INSTABILITY IN ALL LOCATIONS IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

..HART/JIRAK.. 10/03/2011

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KMFR [031201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 031201
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
501 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
10/03/2011 M1.27 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. WINDS ALSO GUSTED TO 40 MPH. CURRENTLY
RAINING HARD.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030834
SWOD48
SPC AC 030834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES THROUGH LATE WEEK. THEREAFTER...PREDICTABILITY WANES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE
STOUT ERN CONUS RIDGE.

DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THU-FRI...RESULTING IN
INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE SRN/ERN CONUS IN PRECEDING DAYS...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF
RICHER MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LONGITUDINALLY CONFINED.
THUS...THE AXIS OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ON A GIVEN DAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NARROW...AND WITH MODERATE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON
THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES...PRECLUDE ANY OUTLOOK OF 30
PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/03/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030653
SWODY3
SPC AC 030652

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU.
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND AS A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT NEWD AS IT
IMPINGES ON THE RIDGE. GENERALLY ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM
CNTRL CA NWD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EJECTION OF THE FOUR
CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THIS TROUGH FILLING ON WED AS THE LARGE-SCALE WRN
CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG. MORE PROMINENT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS THE 00Z GFS DEPICTS
A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE POLEWARD RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE. GIVEN CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION IN THE WRN GULF...THIS
MODEL RUN APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF.

A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON /DEPENDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/. EVEN SO...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN WEAK GIVEN EXPECTED MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING
ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/03/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030540
SWODY1
SPC AC 030539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD ALONG THE COAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...ONSHORE FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. OUT
WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INITIATE IN THE ROCKIES AND FOUR
CORNER REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST OF NRN CA...ORE AND WA. NONE OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 10/03/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030504
SWODY2
SPC AC 030503

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A SPLITTING WRN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
INLAND THROUGH EARLY WED...THE SRN PORTION EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS AND THE NORTHERN PORTION NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE IMPULSES...A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG
THE MS VALLEY. A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL
ACCELERATE NEWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS
QUEBEC.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON AS THE
POLEWARD ADVECTION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS WILL BE
PREVALENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NRN ROCKIES...DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS TOO WEAK ATTM TO WARRANT AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK.

...NEW ENGLAND COAST...
A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO CLOSED
LOW ACCELERATING NEWD FROM THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

...ORE/NRN CA COAST...
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL EXIST EARLY WED AS COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -25 DEG C AT 500 MB/ REACH THE
PACIFIC NW COAST AND YIELDS A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/03/2011

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