KSGX [140142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 140142
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
542 PM PST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW PALOMAR MOUNTAIN 33.36N 116.83W
12/13/2011 M8.0 INCH SAN DIEGO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

36 HOUR STORM TOTAL

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW MOUNT LAGUNA 32.87N 116.42W
12/13/2011 M12.0 INCH SAN DIEGO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

36 HOUR STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

JMOKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140102
SWODY1
SPC AC 140100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN STATES TO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SRN AZ/NWRN MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THE PARENT SWRN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ENEWD TOWARD
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION/ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AZ/NM
TONIGHT AS COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT
SPREAD ENEWD ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE SRN AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THIS TSTM THREAT AND AN INCREASE IN TSTM POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
E OF THE ROCKIES...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE 20Z GENERAL TSTM
AREA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED SEVERAL
IMPULSES HAVE EJECTED NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/W TX INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SWRN STATES TROUGH AND AS
STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT EMERGES ACROSS OK/KS/NEB TO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED OVER
SWRN/CENTRAL OK AND SRN KS. HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE SLY LLJ THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE ALREADY IN PLACE FROM W TX TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE FURTHER LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS E OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL
NOT PROVE EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR SURFACE
BASED STORMS...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF STABILITY IN THE PREEXISTING
BOUNDARY LAYER PER THE 00Z SOUNDINGS.

STRONG BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPE 400-800 J/KG SUGGEST A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK SRN AND MAYBE ERN KS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL LATE TONIGHT AS STRONGER
ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDING CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS HAIL SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN
1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

AN AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO EXIST OVER NWRN TX/FAR SWRN OK
/INVOF OF SPS/ WHERE MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A
COMPARATIVELY WARMER/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ADVECT INTO THIS
REGION BETWEEN 14/09-12Z. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN STORMS WOULD HAVE A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND THUS REALIZE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF
THIS THREAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL
INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES BUT ABSTAIN FROM INTRODUCING A
CATEGORICAL RISK.

..PETERS.. 12/14/2011

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KGJT [140021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 140021
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
521 PM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM SNOW MONTICELLO 37.87N 109.34W
12/13/2011 M8.0 INCH SAN JUAN UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL ENDING AT 430 PM MST

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100638

$$

JDC

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KGJT [140019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 140019
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
519 PM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW 6 W MONTICELLO 37.87N 109.45W
12/13/2011 M16.0 INCH SAN JUAN UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL ENDING AT 4 PM MST

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100637

$$

JDC

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KEPZ [132345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 132345
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
445 PM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HEAVY RAIN 10 NW WHITE SIGNAL 32.66N 108.50W
12/13/2011 M2.50 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100450

$$

PAZOS

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KEPZ [132336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEPZ 132336
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
436 PM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM HEAVY RAIN LORDSBURG 32.34N 108.70W
12/13/2011 M1.68 INCH HIDALGO NM MESONET

ELEV 4259 FT. NM DPS CWOP STATION. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0349 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW CLOVERDALE 31.45N 108.99W
12/13/2011 M2.21 INCH HIDALGO NM MESONET

ELEV 5480 FT. RAWS SITE NEAR CLOVERDALE. STORM TOTAL SO
FAR.

0351 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 ESE HACHITA 31.89N 108.20W
12/13/2011 M1.13 INCH LUNA NM MESONET

ELEV 4656 FT. US RCRN SITE NEAR HACHITA. STORM TOTAL SO
FAR.

0353 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE BIG HATCHET REFUG 31.70N 108.34W
12/13/2011 M1.69 INCH HIDALGO NM MESONET

ELEV 4291 FT. HACHITA VALLEY RAWS. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0354 PM HEAVY RAIN 12 E REDROCK 32.67N 108.54W
12/13/2011 M1.58 INCH GRANT NM MESONET

ELEV 6965 FT. BURRO MTN RAWS. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0359 PM HEAVY RAIN MULE CREEK 33.12N 108.96W
12/13/2011 M0.93 INCH GRANT NM MESONET

ELEV 5253 FT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0401 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW SILVER CITY 32.77N 108.33W
12/13/2011 M1.83 INCH GRANT NM MESONET

ELEV 6348 FT. CWOP STATION CW9676. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0405 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SILVER CITY 32.79N 108.26W
12/13/2011 M1.52 INCH GRANT NM MESONET

ELEV 6065 FT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0406 PM HEAVY RAIN LAKE ROBERTS 33.03N 108.17W
12/13/2011 M1.76 INCH GRANT NM MESONET

ELEV 6140 FT. CWOP STATION AS803. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0409 PM HEAVY RAIN KSVC 32.64N 108.17W
12/13/2011 M0.97 INCH GRANT NM AWOS

ELEV 5443 FT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0415 PM HEAVY RAIN KTCS 33.23N 107.27W
12/13/2011 M1.07 INCH SIERRA NM ASOS

ELEV 4849 FT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0417 PM HEAVY RAIN KDMN 32.26N 107.70W
12/13/2011 M0.96 INCH LUNA NM ASOS

ELEV 4314 FT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0422 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSE RINCON 32.61N 107.02W
12/13/2011 M0.48 INCH DONA ANA NM MESONET

USGS GAUGE NEAR RINCON. ELEV 4002 FT. STORM TOTAL SO
FAR.

0425 PM HEAVY RAIN KLRU 32.29N 106.92W
12/13/2011 M0.21 INCH DONA ANA NM AWOS

ELEV 4455 FT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0426 PM HEAVY RAIN SAN AUGUSTIN PASS 32.43N 106.57W
12/13/2011 M0.42 INCH DONA ANA NM MESONET

ELEV 5902 FT. SAN AUGUSTIN PASS.

0428 PM HEAVY RAIN CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.74W
12/13/2011 M0.31 INCH OTERO NM MESONET

ELEV APPX 8700 FT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100434 EPZ1100435 EPZ1100436 EPZ1100437 EPZ1100438
EPZ1100439 EPZ1100440 EPZ1100441 EPZ1100442 EPZ1100443 EPZ1100444
EPZ1100445 EPZ1100446 EPZ1100447 EPZ1100448 EPZ1100449

$$

HARDIMAN

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KVEF [132058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 132058
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1258 PM PST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 PM SNOW S HUALAPAI PEAK 35.07N 113.90W
12/13/2011 M5.0 INCH MOHAVE AZ PUBLIC

FIVE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LATEST STORM STARTING 12
DECEMBER AFTERNOON. AROUND 12 INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL ON THE
GROUND FROM THIS AND A PREVIOUS STORM. STILL SNOWING
LIGHTLY AS OF 1250 PM.

1250 PM SNOW 4 SSW CEDAR HILLS 35.12N 113.81W
12/13/2011 M2.0 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LATEST STORM. MOST OF THE
SNOW HAS MELTED AS OF 1250 PM.

&&

$$

JGG

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KFGZ [132014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 132014
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
114 PM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0113 PM HEAVY SNOW KACHINA VILLAGE 35.10N 111.69W
12/13/2011 M12.9 INCH COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100319

$$

BAK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131949
SWODY1
SPC AC 131947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN
AZ WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS
HAVE AT TIMES PRODUCED ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...HOWEVER MOST
CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR DISCHARGE
NORTH OF THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER. EVEN SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH
OF MID LEVEL JET CORE WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 12/13/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011/

...SWRN STATES...
STRONG PV-ANOMALY JUST SW OF KSAN AT MID-MORNING WILL TURN ENE
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES TDY/TONIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER AZ INTO NM. ISOLD STG TSTMS WITH HAIL MAY
OCCUR OVER THE SRN AZ DESERTS AMIDST COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG
LIFT. HOWEVER...SVR PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
STG SSWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
INTERSECTING LLJ WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM TX PNHDL TO
MO/IA WILL RESULT IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/ELEVATED TSTMS. COMPARATIVELY WARMER/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY ADVECT NWD INTO PARTS OF NW TX/SWRN OK VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE
STRONGER TSTMS MAY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT CAPPING CONCERNS WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION ROOTED
JUST ABOVE THE WARM SECTOR. AS SUCH...NO SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED.

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KFGZ [131848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131848
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1148 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1147 AM SNOW 3 SSE WILLIAMS 35.22N 112.15W
12/13/2011 M9.1 INCH COCONINO AZ COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100318

$$

MCS

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KVEF [131842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 131842
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1041 AM PST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 2 NW MT. CHARLESTON 36.31N 115.64W
12/13/2011 M9.0 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC

9 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF 730 AM. SNOW BEGAN LATE AFTERNOON
ON 12 DECEMBER.

0730 AM SNOW 8 N I-40 AT FORT ROCK 35.30N 113.38W
12/13/2011 M5.5 INCH MOHAVE AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

5.5 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF 630 AM. SNOW BEGAN LATE
AFTERNOON 12 DECEMBER.

0800 AM SNOW MT. CHARLESTON 36.28N 115.62W
12/13/2011 M7.0 INCH CLARK NV CO-OP OBSERVER

7 INCHES OF SNOW AT 8 AM. SNOW STARTED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON ON 12 DECEMBER.

0800 AM SNOW PIOCHE 37.93N 114.45W
12/13/2011 M3.0 INCH LINCOLN NV CO-OP OBSERVER

3 INCHES OF SNOW AT PIOCHE FROM LATE AFTERNOON 12
DECEMBER TO 8 AM.

&&

$$

JGG

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KFGZ [131811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131811
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1110 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1109 AM HEAVY SNOW FOREST LAKES 34.34N 110.80W
12/13/2011 M26.0 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100317

$$

MCS

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KFGZ [131745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131745
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1044 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E ALPINE 33.85N 109.09W
12/13/2011 E14.0 INCH APACHE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 14 TO 15 INCHES. ELEVATION 8020 FEET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100316

$$

MCS

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KFGZ [131744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131744
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1044 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 AM HEAVY SNOW ALPINE 33.85N 109.14W
12/13/2011 E12.0 INCH APACHE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 12 TO 14 INCHES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100315

$$

MCS

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KFGZ [131744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131744
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1044 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM SNOW 3 N ALPINE 33.89N 109.14W
12/13/2011 M9.0 INCH APACHE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION 8400 FEET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100314

$$

MCS

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KFGZ [131743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131743
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1043 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0959 AM HEAVY SNOW MORMON LAKE 34.92N 111.47W
12/13/2011 E12.0 INCH COCONINO AZ PUBLIC

MORMON LAKE LODGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100313

$$

MCS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131711
SWODY2
SPC AC 131710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...

...SRN PLAINS...

LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
FORCED TO EJECT TOWARD THE PLAINS AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AHEAD OF DIGGING NWRN U.S. SPEED MAX. THIS LEAD FEATURE SHOULD
TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM IN A POSITIVE-TILT FASHION ULTIMATELY LIMITING
PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. EVEN
SO...STRONG LLJ EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PROVE FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS TX WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC DEW
POINTS TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING INTO
THE DAY2 PERIOD AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KS/OK INTO NWRN TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NWRN TX
AT SUNRISE EXHIBIT MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND THIS MAY BE
ADEQUATE FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. WITH TIME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL WANE ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS TX AS LLJ AND
STRONGER FORCING SHIFT INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION. EVEN
SO...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S. IF THIS OCCURS AS THE NAM INSINUATES THEN A FEW
WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT...OR PERHAPS
CONVECTION WILL DISPLAY SOME LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER NORTH...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY DUE TO THE MEAGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

..DARROW.. 12/13/2011

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KFGZ [131656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131656
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0956 AM HEAVY SNOW HAPPY JACK 34.74N 111.41W
12/13/2011 M11.5 INCH COCONINO AZ FOREST SERVICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100312

$$

MCS

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KFGZ [131653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131653
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
952 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 AM HEAVY SNOW MILEPOST 300 ON SR 87 34.61N 111.19W
12/13/2011 M10.0 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

BLUE RIDGE RANGER STATION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100311

$$

MCS

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KDLH [131652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 131652
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1052 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM FREEZING RAIN 2 W PROCTOR 46.74N 92.27W
12/13/2011 E0.15 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADS AND DRIVEWAYS COVERED IN LAYER OF ICE

&&

$$

GRANING

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KFGZ [131643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131643
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
943 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 SE PRESCOTT 34.50N 112.36W
12/13/2011 M10.0 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION 6200 FEET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100310

$$

MCS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131622
SWODY1
SPC AC 131620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN STATES...
STRONG PV-ANOMALY JUST SW OF KSAN AT MID-MORNING WILL TURN ENE
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES TDY/TONIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER AZ INTO NM. ISOLD STG TSTMS WITH HAIL MAY
OCCUR OVER THE SRN AZ DESERTS AMIDST COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG
LIFT. HOWEVER...SVR PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
STG SSWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
INTERSECTING LLJ WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM TX PNHDL TO
MO/IA WILL RESULT IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/ELEVATED TSTMS. COMPARATIVELY WARMER/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY ADVECT NWD INTO PARTS OF NW TX/SWRN OK VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE
STRONGER TSTMS MAY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT CAPPING CONCERNS WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION ROOTED
JUST ABOVE THE WARM SECTOR. AS SUCH...NO SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 12/13/2011

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KFGZ [131559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131559
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
859 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 AM SNOW TONTO VILLAGE 34.32N 111.13W
12/13/2011 M11.0 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

15.5 INCHES ON GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100309

$$

DGV

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KFGZ [131558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131558
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM SNOW 7 SE FLAGSTAFF 35.12N 111.53W
12/13/2011 E12.0 INCH COCONINO AZ UTILITY COMPANY

LAKE MARY DAM

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100308

$$

DGV

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KFGZ [131546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131546
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
846 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 AM HEAVY SNOW W FLAGSTAFF 35.19N 111.62W
12/13/2011 M9.0 INCH COCONINO AZ WEB REPORT

STORM TOTAL SO FAR IS 14 INCHES....9 INCHES OVERNIGHT

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100307

$$

CO

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KFGZ [131542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131542
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
842 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM HEAVY SNOW FOREST LAKES 34.34N 110.80W
12/13/2011 M16.0 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100306

$$

CO

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KPSR [131540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 131540
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM DENSE FOG TACNA 32.70N 113.95W
12/13/2011 E0.25 MILE YUMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1100014

$$

WATERS

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KFGZ [131536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131536
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
836 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0834 AM HEAVY SNOW 15 ENE PAYSON 34.33N 111.08W
12/13/2011 M15.0 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

AT 5823 FT....NO POWER...CONTINUES TO SNOW

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100305

$$

CO

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KFGZ [131535]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131535
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
835 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM HEAVY RAIN CORNVILLE 34.72N 111.91W
12/13/2011 M1.39 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100304

$$

DGV

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KFGZ [131530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131530
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 AM HEAVY SNOW PINE 34.39N 111.46W
12/13/2011 M12.0 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100303

$$

CO

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KFGZ [131527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131527
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
827 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 AM HEAVY SNOW STRAWBERRY 34.41N 111.49W
12/13/2011 E12.0 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100302

$$

CO

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KFGZ [131507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131507
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
807 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0806 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSW FLAGSTAFF 35.15N 111.64W
12/13/2011 M12.0 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

MT DELL AREA AS OF 745AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100301

$$

CO

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KFGZ [131452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131452
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
752 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM SNOW KACHINA VILLAGE 35.10N 111.69W
12/13/2011 M10.0 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

14 INCHES ON GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100300

$$

DGV

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KFGZ [131449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131449
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
749 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 AM HEAVY SNOW FOREST LAKES 34.34N 110.80W
12/13/2011 M12.0 INCH COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100299

$$

CO

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KGJT [131445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 131445
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
744 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 ESE DURANGO 37.26N 107.79W
12/13/2011 M4.0 INCH LA PLATA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100636

$$

TB

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KFGZ [131444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131444
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
744 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0741 AM SNOW ARIZONA SNOWBOWL 35.35N 111.70W
12/13/2011 M10.0 INCH COCONINO AZ PARK SERVICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100298

$$

CO

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KDLH [131440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 131440
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
839 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM FREEZING RAIN 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
12/13/2011 E0.00 INCH ST. LOUIS MN NWS EMPLOYEE

THIN GLAZE OF ICE COVERING PARKING LOT AND SIDEWALKS

0800 AM FREEZING RAIN ADOLPH 46.78N 92.28W
12/13/2011 E0.10 INCH ST. LOUIS MN NWS EMPLOYEE

GLAZE OF ICE COVERING EXPOSED SURFACES. ROADS WERE ICY AS
WELL.

0830 AM FREEZING RAIN HERBSTER 46.83N 91.26W
12/13/2011 E0.10 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

ICE COVERING YARD

&&

$$

HLUCHAN

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KGJT [131435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 131435
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
735 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW MOLAS PASS 37.73N 107.70W
12/13/2011 E7.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100635

$$

TB

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KGJT [131434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 131434
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
734 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW COAL BANK PASS 37.70N 107.78W
12/13/2011 E7.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100634

$$

TB

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KGJT [131430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 131430
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
729 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 10 N SILVERTON 37.96N 107.66W
12/13/2011 M8.5 INCH OURAY CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL WITH A WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.70 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100633

$$

TB

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KPUB [131417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 131417
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
12/13/2011 M6.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

0710 AM SNOW ALAMOSA 37.47N 105.87W
12/13/2011 M2.0 INCH ALAMOSA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KLBF [131414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 131414
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
814 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0803 AM FREEZING RAIN IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
12/13/2011 E0.10 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

ESTIMATED 1/8TH OF AN INCH OF GLAZE ICE WITH SLICK ROADS
IN TOWN.

&&

$$

JAHSENMA

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KFGZ [131329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131329
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
629 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 NE CAMP VERDE 34.65N 111.76W
12/13/2011 M0.84 INCH YAVAPAI AZ COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100297

$$

TC

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KGJT [131317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 131317
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
616 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM SNOW 24 N DURANGO 37.63N 107.87W
12/13/2011 M8.0 INCH LA PLATA CO PUBLIC

24 HOUR SNOWFALL AT DURANGO MOUNTAIN RESORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100632

$$

TB

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KGJT [131312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 131312
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
612 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 18 NNE DURANGO 37.53N 107.74W
12/13/2011 M5.0 INCH LA PLATA CO PUBLIC

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100631

$$

TB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131249
SWODY1
SPC AC 131247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST WILL ROTATE
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INTENSIFY ALONG THE JET AXIS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO A RISK
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM AZ/NM INTO MO/IA.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AZ
AND MUCH OF NM DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY PROFILES...MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST
NM AROUND PEAK HEATING. A COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
STRONG LIFT MIGHT YIELD AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CAPABLE OF HAIL. ATTM...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM TX INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO MO/IA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT /AFTER
06Z/...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CAPE VALUES FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO...ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD APPEAR TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
SLIGHTLY CAPPED AND THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG OR
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY
AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED IF WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

..HART/GARNER.. 12/13/2011

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KFGZ [131212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131212
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
512 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 AM HEAVY SNOW KACHINA VILLAGE 35.10N 111.69W
12/13/2011 M16.0 INCH COCONINO AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100296

$$

TC

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KFGZ [131211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 131211
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
511 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 NW FLAGSTAFF 35.24N 111.68W
12/13/2011 M11.0 INCH COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100295

$$

TC

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KFGZ [130945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 130945
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0244 AM HEAVY SNOW KACHINA VILLAGE 35.10N 111.69W
12/13/2011 M11.0 INCH COCONINO AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100294

$$

TC

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130922
SWOD48
SPC AC 130921

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW...SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA...BY LATE THIS WEEK. EVENTUALLY...AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LARGE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THIS PROCESS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 12/13/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130734
SWODY3
SPC AC 130732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS CONTINUE...AND APPEAR TO INCREASE
DURING THIS PERIOD...CONCERNING THE SMALLER SCALE DEVELOPMENTS
WITHIN THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN. IN GENERAL...
THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CONSOLIDATING SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES. A TRAILING
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE GRADUALLY STALLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DIGS TO THE EAST OF AN EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE...INTO BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING ...GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE VICINITY OF THE STALLING FRONT...WHERE SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

...UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID DECEMBER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND VERY WEAK CAPE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE VERY NEARLY SURFACE BASED
DURING THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONGLY SHEARED WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW COULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH /30-40+ KT/ TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 12/13/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130556
SWODY1
SPC AC 130554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN STATES TO LOWER MO VALLEY AND PART OF UPPER MS VALLEY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE PARENT SWRN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK ENEWD
ACROSS NRN BAJA/NRN MEXICO...AND REACH THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT THE PARENT TROUGH TO GRADUALLY TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP ALONG AND NORTH OF FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
JETS TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM
AZ/NM...NEWD ACROSS OK/KS...AND SPREADING INTO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MO/UPPER MS VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT.

...THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /60-100
METERS AT 500 MB/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER 14/00Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MARKED RESPONSE IN
THE SLY LLJ ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IN TURN STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING/WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND N OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT.

...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP OBSERVED OVER SWRN TX PER
00Z SOUNDINGS WILL SPREAD NEWD GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THIS FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VALID
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT ADVANCE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY ELEVATED...WEAK INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/ AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR /35-50 KT/ MAY
SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...THOUGH AT THIS TIME LOCAL HAIL MODEL
SUGGESTS VALUES WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

..PETERS/HURLBUT.. 12/13/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130548
SWODY2
SPC AC 130547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF CNTRL AND NE TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A 90-100+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB
JET STREAK WILL NOSE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AND ROCKIES REGION. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG
THE MODELS CONCERNING THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH ANOTHER
IMPULSE DIGGING WITHIN A MORE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND THIS
RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MORE RAPID DEEPENING OF
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MAY NOT COMMENCE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NEVERTHELESS...WIND FIELDS ARE STILL
PROGGED TO BE STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ...INCLUDING A 50+ KT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN AMBIENT FLOW /50+ KT THRU
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR/ AND VERTICAL SHEAR...BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IMPACTING THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD. A PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OFF THE MODIFYING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY
LAYER...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SURFACE
LOW. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ABOVE A
RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MAY NOT MODIFY MUCH PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...PARTICULARLY
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND ARKLATEX REGION.

ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING /SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S/ WILL RESULT IN A LEAST A CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH STRONGER FLOW FIELDS MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR STILL SHOULD BE MORE THAN
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG. WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ALSO PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL... LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

..KERR.. 12/13/2011

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KSGX [130528]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KSGX 130528
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 PM PST MON DEC 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM WATER SPOUT 2 SW LA JOLLA 32.83N 117.29W
12/12/2011 PZZ750 CA PUBLIC

THREE WATERSPOUTS SPOTTED 1 MILE OFF WINDANDSEA BEACH
MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM 1130 TO 1140 AM.
NO LANDFALL NOTED.

0425 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 SW LA MESA 32.72N 117.08W
12/12/2011 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD
SOUTHWEST OF LA MESA AROUND 425 PM.

0705 PM FLOOD 2 E SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.12W
12/12/2011 SAN DIEGO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

AN EASTBOUND LANE OF SR-94 IS FLOODED JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSECTION WITH SR-15.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KFGZ [130519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 130519
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1019 PM MST MON DEC 12 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 PM SNOW KACHINA VILLAGE 35.10N 111.69W
12/12/2011 E8.0 INCH COCONINO AZ PUBLIC

AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100293

$$

MAS

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