Friday, October 2, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030101
SWODY1
SPC AC 030059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI OCT 02 2009

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS FCST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY TWO
CYCLONES ALOFT...NOW LOCATED OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN BC. NWRN
LOW WILL DIG SWD OVER WA...WHILE UPPER MS VALLEY LOW MOVES EWD OVER
LM. RELATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE/FILL THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD. ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY
ANALYZED FROM UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS ERN KY...ERN TN...BECOMES
QUASISTATIONARY SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL MS TO EXTREME NWRN GULF AND
DEEP S TX. WRN SEGMENT OF FRONT MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY NWD ACROSS RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND S TX OVERNIGHT...WHILE ERN SEGMENT MOVES EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR/INLAND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.


...S TX...
ALONG AND S OF FRONT...WHERE SFC MOISTURE REMAINS
ROBUST...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE WILL BECOME MORE
UNFAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS
NEAR-SFC LAYER UNDERGOES GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING. MODIFIED RAOBS
AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND
MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG REMAINING OVER MUCH OF DEEP S TX...THOUGH CINH
WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY WITH TIME. A FEW STG TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
OVER LOWER VALLEY REGION. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STG
TO MRGL SVR TSTMS WILL SHIFT NWWD TO ELEVATED WAA REGIME
OVERNIGHT...WHERE SOME PROGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING ABOVE
SFC TO SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...WITH 40-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY
WOULD BE HAIL...GIVEN ITS POSITION ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND WEAK MID-UPPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN MRGL SVR HAIL SIZE.

...COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC TO EXTREME SRN NEW ENGLAND...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT INVOF COAST AND MOVE NEWD...AMIDST STG MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. MOISTENING LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR NEARLY SFC-BASED
CONVECTION...AS CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE AIR MASS GRADUALLY IS REPLACED
BY MODIFYING ATLANTIC BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING
GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL...AND OVER
TOO LIMITED OF AN AREA...TO INTRODUCE UNCONDITIONAL SVR
PROBABILITIES AOA 5 PERCENT ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/03/2009

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KJAN [030101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 030101
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 PM CDT FRI OCT 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1132 PM TSTM WND DMG ARCOLA 33.27N 90.88W
10/01/2009 WASHINGTON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS OLD HIGHWAY 61 SOUTH ALONG WITH POWER
LINE DOWN IN ARCOLA.

0134 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 S JONESVILLE 31.59N 91.83W
10/02/2009 CATAHOULA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TRAVEL TRAILER WAS FLIPPED OVER ALONG HWY 124 JUST S OF
JONESVILLE.

0145 AM TSTM WND DMG 8 WNW ST. JOSEPH 31.96N 91.37W
10/02/2009 TENSAS LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO TREES DOWN...1 LARGE TREE ACROSS HWY 573.

0147 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 S MONTEREY 31.41N 91.72W
10/02/2009 CONCORDIA LA PUBLIC

NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN ACME AND
MONTEREY.

0209 AM TSTM WND GST NATCHEZ 31.55N 91.39W
10/02/2009 E45.00 MPH ADAMS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE LIMB FELL ONTO MOVING VEHICLE AND DAMAGED THE
WINDSHIELD.

0209 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW SIBLEY 31.37N 91.41W
10/02/2009 ADAMS MS PUBLIC

COUPLE OF TREES DOWN JUST OUTSIDE OF TOWN ON SIBLEY ROAD.

&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [030100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 030100
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
800 PM CDT FRI OCT 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0147 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 S MONTEREY 31.41N 91.72W
10/02/2009 CONCORDIA LA PUBLIC

NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN ACME AND
MONTEREY.


&&

$$

CME

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KSHV [022254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 022254
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
554 PM CDT FRI OCT 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0839 PM DOWNBURST 5 N BUCKNER 33.42N 93.42W
10/01/2009 LAFAYETTE AR NWS STORM SURVEY

TWO CHICKEN HOUSES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF COUNTY ROAD 31
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 31 AND HWY 53 WERE
SEVERELY DAMAGED. NINE TREES WERE UPROOTED ACROSS HWY 53.
A PASSENGER VEHICLE WAS STRUCK BY ONE OF THE FALLING
TREES TRAPPING THE OCCUPANTS.


&&

$$

04

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