Thursday, October 14, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150032
SWODY1
SPC AC 150030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...COASTAL SE NEW ENGLAND...
UPPER TROUGH WAS GOING NEGATIVE-TILT THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG
PV-ANOMALY EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEWD FROM SWRN PA INTO SE NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT. BURST OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITHIN
NWRN QUADRANT OF THE DEEPENING LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR MA CAPE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...INTERNATIONAL AZ BORDER...
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SPOKES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
WEST OF BAHIA KINO IN SONORA MEXICO. LEADING STORMS BETWEEN GILA
BEND AND ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT AT 0030Z WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING YUMA. ADDITIONAL BATCH OF STORMS OVER
CNTRL AND NRN SONORA MAY ALSO CLIP EXTREME SCNTRL AZ LATER THIS
EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..RACY.. 10/15/2010

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KCAE [150018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCAE 150018
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 10 SE PROSPERITY 34.10N 81.42W
10/14/2010 E1.75 INCH NEWBERRY SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED BY SHERIFFS DISPATCH


&&

$$

SMITH

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KCAE [142239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 142239
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 5 W NEWBERRY 34.27N 81.70W
10/14/2010 E0.50 INCH NEWBERRY SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

EMS REPORT RELAYED TO SHERIFF DISPATCH


&&

$$

SMITH

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KCAE [142232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 142232
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG GASTON 33.82N 81.10W
10/14/2010 LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC

TREE DOWN WITH NICKLE SIZED HAIL IN TOWN

0515 PM HAIL 10 SE PROSPERITY 34.10N 81.42W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH NEWBERRY SC LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

SMITH

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KCAE [142217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 142217
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
617 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM HAIL 5 S LEXINGTON 33.91N 81.22W
10/14/2010 E0.50 INCH LEXINGTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND NEAR WAL-MART

0550 PM HAIL 2 SSE RED BANK 33.90N 81.22W
10/14/2010 E1.25 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC

0558 PM HAIL 1 N GASTON 33.83N 81.10W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W LEXINGTON 33.99N 81.26W
10/14/2010 LEXINGTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

TWO TREES DOWN AND POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE TO RESIDENCE

0530 PM HAIL 4 WSW LEXINGTON 33.97N 81.29W
10/14/2010 E0.50 INCH LEXINGTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

0540 PM HAIL 2 S RED BANK 33.90N 81.23W
10/14/2010 E0.50 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC


&&

$$

SMITH

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KCAE [142154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 142154
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM HAIL 8 NW LEXINGTON 34.07N 81.33W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC


&&

$$

SMITH

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KCAE [142152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 142152
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
552 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM HAIL 4 SW LEXINGTON 33.95N 81.28W
10/14/2010 E1.25 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC


&&

$$

SMITH

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KCAE [142151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 142151
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL 2 SW LEXINGTON 33.97N 81.25W
10/14/2010 E1.25 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC


&&

$$

SMITH

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KCAE [142150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 142150
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
549 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM HAIL 4 WSW LEXINGTON 33.95N 81.29W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LEXINGTON SC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF ONE INCH HAIL


&&

$$

SMITH

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KCHS [142037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 142037
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
436 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM TSTM WND DMG SAINT STEPHEN 33.40N 79.92W
10/14/2010 BERKELEY SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE TOWN.


&&

$$

RJB

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KILM [142028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 142028
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM HAIL ANDREWS 33.45N 79.57W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH GEORGETOWN SC PUBLIC

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [142022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 142022
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM MARINE TSTM WIND OAK ISLAND 33.92N 78.17W
10/14/2010 M39 MPH BRUNSWICK NC MESONET

MEASUREMENT OBSERVED AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER STATION.


&&

$$

SRP

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KGSP [142008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 142008
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0403 PM HAIL 5 E LAURENS 34.50N 81.94W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY
385


&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KGSP [142008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 142008
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0403 PM HAIL 5 E LAURENS 34.50N 81.94W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS HAIL RANGING FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE.


&&

$$

HG

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KILM [142000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 142000
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0357 PM HAIL 8 NW TRIO 33.56N 79.82W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH WILLIAMSBURG SC PUBLIC


&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KGSP [141947]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 141947
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
347 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 3 NE HICKORY TAVERN 34.55N 82.15W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS HAIL RANGING FROM PEA SIZE TO QUARTER
SIZE.


&&

$$

BSH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141945
SWODY1
SPC AC 141944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NC OUTER BANKS TO SC...
MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE NRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED E THROUGH MUCH OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS AND OFFSHORE. GIVEN THIS TREND AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALSO SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND/OR EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

FARTHER SW...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAD
FORMED ALONG THE TRAILING EXTENT OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN NC
INTO CENTRAL SC. VEERED...PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ARE LIMITING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
500-700 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ACROSS SC WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED HAIL EVENT PRIOR TO
THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...THE SHORT-LIVED TEMPORAL POTENTIAL AND
LIMITED ORGANIZATIONAL THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS ERN SC.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...
THE GENERAL TSTM LINE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF ERN
UPPER MI AND FAR NERN LOWER MI.

..PETERS.. 10/14/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010/

...ERN NC/EXTREME SERN VA...
UPPER TROUGH...SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WILL SHIFT ENEWD
AND GRADUALLY BECOME NEGATIVELY TITLED...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET
MAX AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPALACHIANS TROUGH
WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN VA/NC AT MID MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE EWD
OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED ...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD
OCCUR OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-MENTIONED FEATURES EXTENDED FROM NEAR ORF
TO SOUTH OF GSB AT 1530Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE STORMS...MLCAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING
STRONGER HEATING. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM LINES/CELLS....WEAK AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG
WITH THE POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A
FEW HAILSTONES WITH DIAMETERS FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

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KILM [141940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 141940
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 6 E CONWAY 33.84N 78.96W
10/14/2010 E1.50 INCH HORRY SC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [141932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 141932
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
332 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 5 E CONWAY 33.84N 78.97W
10/14/2010 E0.88 INCH HORRY SC PUBLIC


&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KILM [141924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 141924
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0322 PM HAIL CONWAY 33.84N 79.06W
10/14/2010 E1.75 INCH HORRY SC EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

LOEWENTH

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KLWX [141922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 141922
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW CLEMENTS 38.32N 76.76W
10/14/2010 ST. MARYS MD 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO A PORCH ROOF


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1001052

$$

SMZ

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KMHX [141835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 141835
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE TRENTON 35.09N 77.32W
10/14/2010 JONES NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE UPROOTED ALONG HWY 41.


&&

$$

BMELENDE

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KMHX [141704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 141704
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
104 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1257 PM TSTM WND DMG RIVER BEND 35.07N 77.15W
10/14/2010 CRAVEN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN IN RIVERBEND AREA NEAR HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH


&&

$$

JELARDO

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KPSR [141644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 141644
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HAIL 5 N GLENDALE 33.65N 112.20W
10/05/2010 M2.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ UNKNOWN

NWS OFFICE RCVD PHOTO OF MEASURED HAIL. CORRECTED DATE.


&&

$$

WATERS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141626
SWODY2
SPC AC 141625

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NRN EXTENT OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD
THROUGH THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS...WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SEWD ACROSS VA/NC DURING DAY 2 WILL REINFORCE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
ERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE ERN SEABOARD
BY 12Z SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NW/BC LATE DAY 1 WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
ON FRIDAY...BREAKING DOWN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. AS THIS
OCCURS...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD FROM NRN BAJA
TOWARD SRN AZ.

...SRN AZ AND SERN CA...
MODELS MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION/HIGH-BASED TSTMS ACROSS
SRN AZ INTO SERN CA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE BAJA LOW WILL ADVECT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
NWWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND SRN CA. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...COOL AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AT
OR BELOW 500 J/KG IN THIS REGION. HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND AN INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...
A POCKET OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER KM/ NORTH OF
SEWD ADVANCING JET STREAK DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF VA/NRN NC.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THESE STATES WITHIN
THE ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE DAY.

..PETERS.. 10/14/2010

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KKEY [141613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 141613
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1213 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM WATER SPOUT 10 SE KEY LARGO 25.00N 80.33W
10/14/2010 GMZ052 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO WATER SPOUTS WERE OBSERVED 10 MILES SOUTH OF DIXIE
SHOALS BY A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER.


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KPSR [141610]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 141610
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
909 AM MST THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HAIL 5 N GLENDALE 33.65N 112.20W
10/06/2010 M2.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ UNKNOWN

NWS OFFICE RCVD PHOTO OF MEASURED HAIL.


&&

$$

WATERS

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KAKQ [141608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 141608
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1208 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1032 AM HAIL ELIZABETH CITY 36.30N 76.22W
10/14/2010 E1.00 INCH PASQUOTANK NC PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ELIZABETH CITY.


&&

$$

GINGRICH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141603
SWODY1
SPC AC 141601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN EXTREME SERN VA AND ERN
NC...

...ERN NC/EXTREME SERN VA...
UPPER TROUGH...SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WILL SHIFT ENEWD
AND GRADUALLY BECOME NEGATIVELY TITLED...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET
MAX AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPALACHIANS TROUGH
WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN VA/NC AT MID MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE EWD
OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED ...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD
OCCUR OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-MENTIONED FEATURES EXTENDED FROM NEAR ORF
TO SOUTH OF GSB AT 1530Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE STORMS...MLCAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING
STRONGER HEATING. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM LINES/CELLS....WEAK AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG
WITH THE POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A
FEW HAILSTONES WITH DIAMETERS FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

..IMY/GARNER.. 10/14/2010

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KAKQ [141432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 141432
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM TSTM WND GST ELIZABETH CITY 36.30N 76.22W
10/14/2010 E50.00 MPH PASQUOTANK NC PUBLIC

MARBLE HAIL. ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 50 MPH ON SOUTH SIDE
OF THE CITY.


&&

$$

MRUSNAK

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KAKQ [141403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 141403
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1003 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 AM HAIL RABBIT CORNER 36.24N 76.32W
10/14/2010 M0.50 INCH PASQUOTANK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA TO MARBLE HAIL


&&

$$

MRUSNAK

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KLMK [141256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 141256
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
856 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL FRENCH LICK 38.55N 86.62W
10/13/2010 E0.25 INCH ORANGE IN STORM CHASER

0455 PM HAIL ORLEANS 38.66N 86.45W
10/13/2010 E0.25 INCH ORANGE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0523 PM HAIL 8 S BIRDSEYE 38.19N 86.70W
10/13/2010 E0.88 INCH PERRY IN COCORAHS

0527 PM HAIL 3 N BRISTOW 38.18N 86.72W
10/13/2010 M0.88 INCH PERRY IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0538 PM HAIL SALEM 38.60N 86.10W
10/13/2010 E0.25 INCH WASHINGTON IN BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000550 LMK1000551 LMK1000553 LMK1000552 LMK1000554

$$

SZAPPANOS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141236
SWODY1
SPC AC 141235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER NERN NC AND FAR SERN
VA...

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...

LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION AND ASSUME A
NEGATIVE TILT AS AN EMBEDDED...POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATES
FROM MI/IND/OH ESEWD TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT.
THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN A BROAD CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT
FALLS PROGRESSIVELY SPREADING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EWD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WHICH WILL HASTEN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFFSHORE LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA/NC INVOF A
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT...APPARENTLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE COAST
TODAY...WITH EXPANDING AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
ALONG WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT CASTING
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH INFLOW AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE
TODAY.

06Z MESOSCALE AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT GREATEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1000
J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERHAPS BEING AUGMENTED BY ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NNEWD ALONG THE NC
OUTER BANKS. THE GIVEN SETUP APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 10/14/2010

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KLWX [140913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 140913
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
513 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1011 PM HAIL GIBSON ISLAND 39.08N 76.43W
10/11/2010 E0.88 INCH ANNE ARUNDEL MD PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1001051

$$

KRAMAR

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140832
SWOD48
SPC AC 140831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THOUGH MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...PREDICTABILITY STILL REMAINS LOW BEYOND DAY 6 DUE TO LESS
THAN OPTIMAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONSENSUS BETWEEN LATEST RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MREF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATES THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN STATES DAY 4 WILL
CUTOFF OVER THE SWRN U.S. BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD
DAY 8.

WHILE MODIFIED CP AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF RETREATING RIDGE AXIS BY 5...THE WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM OK INTO NRN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DAYS 5-6 AS A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH RETURNING
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN A HIGHER RISK CATEGORY. OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DAY 5 OVER SRN AZ IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW.

GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL UPPER LOW THAT MAY
CUTOFF OVER THE SWRN U.S. EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATER DAY 8
AT THE EARLIEST...BUT PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME.

..DIAL.. 10/14/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140655
SWODY3
SPC AC 140654

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL IN WAKE OF EXITING ERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH WITH BELT OF STRONGER WLYS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND PERSIST IN VICINITY OF NRN MEXICO AND SRN AZ.


...SRN AZ...

CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ZONE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SRN AZ. STEEP LAPSE RATES...DIABATIC WARMING AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL MLCAPE. HIGH
BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY...INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

...ELSEWHERE...

A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE FROM TX THROUGH THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS WILL LIMIT INLAND RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

..DIAL.. 10/14/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140502
SWODY2
SPC AC 140501

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...

ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY FRIDAY AND
SHIFT EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELT
OF STRONGER WLYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE U.S. FROM
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER BAJA CA MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EWD.

...SRN AZ AND SRN CA...

CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER LOW WILL ADVECT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
NWWD THROUGH SRN AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT COOL AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG IN
THIS REGION. HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYERS...ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STORMS.

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...

POCKET OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF SEWD ADVANCING
JET STREAK DROPPING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DIABATIC
WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
PARTS OF VA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH VA
WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THE JET STREAK. INSTABILITY WILL
BE MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES DURING THE DAY.

..DIAL.. 10/14/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140445
SWODY1
SPC AC 140443

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN NC NWD INTO
SRN DELMARVA REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT AND CLOSE INTO A LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NERN STATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

...NC TO DELMARVA...
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH SFC LOW TRACKING
INTO TIDEWATER VA AND DELMARVA REGION 18-00Z THEN OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND OVERNIGHT. SMALL WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES TO 500
J/KG WILL EVOLVE OVER NE NC...SE VA AND SRN DELMARVA REGION DURING
LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON AS GULF STREAM MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED
WWD.

MAGNITUDE OF PVA AND SUFFICIENT BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD SFC-BASED
STORMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT POINTS SWD
ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO BE QUITE STRONG FROM NERN NC INTO ERN VA
AND SRN MD/DE. PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT-LINE
SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLD TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SVR STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AFTER DARK.

..RACY/GRAMS.. 10/14/2010

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