Sunday, September 25, 2011

KCHS [252137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252137
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
537 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM HAIL 1 WSW RIDGEVILLE 33.09N 80.34W
09/25/2011 E0.50 INCH DORCHESTER SC TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORT OF HALF INCH HAIL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100958

$$

33

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KCHS [252135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252135
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
535 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 1 WSW RIDGEVILLE 33.09N 80.33W
09/25/2011 E0.25 INCH DORCHESTER SC TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZED HAIL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100957

$$

33

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KMEG [252127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 252127
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
427 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM HAIL EARLE 35.27N 90.46W
09/25/2011 M1.00 INCH CRITTENDEN AR PUBLIC

AT EARLE HIGH SCHOOL.


&&

$$

CDG

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KMFL [252118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 252118
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
518 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 E BUCKHEAD RIDGE 27.14N 80.79W
09/25/2011 M40.00 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

MEASURED AT LAKE TOWER L001 ON NORTH END OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

0415 PM FLOOD 1 WSW SWEETWATER 25.76N 80.38W
09/25/2011 MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS MIAMI OFFICE RECORDED 3.26 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 240 PM
TO 415 PM. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS NEAR AND WEST OF THE
FIU MAIN CAMPUS HAD ABOUT 1 FOOT OF STANDING WATER.


&&

$$

MOLLEDA

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KGSP [252106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 252106
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL SHARON 34.95N 81.34W
09/25/2011 E0.75 INCH YORK SC 911 CALL CENTER

DIME SIZE OR SLIGHTLY LARGER.


&&

$$

TBENTHAL

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KMEG [252054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 252054
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM HAIL WYNNE 35.23N 90.79W
09/25/2011 E1.00 INCH CROSS AR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CDG

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KCHS [252051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252051
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
451 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0319 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S MIDDLEGROUND 32.51N 81.81W
09/25/2011 BULLOCH GA PUBLIC

A 50 FEET TREE FELL AND CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE TO A
BACKYARD DECK. THE TREE CREATED A LARGE HOLE IN THE
BACKYARD WHERE THE EXPANSIVE ROOTS CAME OUT OF THE
GROUND.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100956

$$

33

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KCHS [252044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252044
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
444 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 2 N MIDDLEGROUND 32.57N 81.82W
09/25/2011 E1.75 INCH BULLOCH GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

BULLOCH 911 CENTER REPORTS CONSIDERABLE HAIL DAMAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100955

$$

33

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KCHS [252042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252042
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
442 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW DOVER 32.55N 81.74W
09/25/2011 BULLOCH GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

BULLOCH 911 CENTER REPORTS NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100954

$$

33

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KCHS [252040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252040
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
440 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0329 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE MIDDLEGROUND 32.53N 81.79W
09/25/2011 BULLOCH GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

BULLOCH 911 CENTER REPORTS A LARGE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE
ON LAKEVIEW ROAD. THE HOUSE SUSTAINED ENOUGH DAMAGE
WHERE THE OCCUPANTS ARE BEING SHELTERED BY THE RED
CROSS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100953

$$

33

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KFFC [252038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 252038
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 PM HAIL WRENS 33.21N 82.39W
09/25/2011 E0.88 INCH JEFFERSON GA BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

JLF

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KCHS [252038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252038
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
438 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE MIDDLEGROUND 32.53N 81.79W
09/25/2011 BULLOCH GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE DOWN ON LAKEVIEW BAPTIST CHURCH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100952

$$

33

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KGSP [252023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 252023
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0303 PM TSTM WND DMG BOGER CITY 35.48N 81.20W
09/25/2011 LINCOLN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON SALEM CHURCH ROAD AND ON MAIN STREET. PEA
SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

TBENTHAL

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KCHS [252022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252022
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG DOVER 32.58N 81.72W
09/25/2011 SCREVEN GA PUBLIC

SEVERAL 3 INCH DIAMATER MAGNOLIA TREE LIMBS DOWN. ALSO
RECEIVED PENNY SIZE HAIL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100951

$$

RJB

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 855

WWUS20 KWNS 252021
SEL5
SPC WW 252021
ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-260300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO
ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ASCENT IS INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT ACROSS NE AR...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. DESPITE CLOUDS SPREADING E OF THE FRONT...A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITHIN A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND STORMS BACK-BUILD ALONG THE FRONT INTO
SE AR/NW MS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...THOMPSON

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KCHS [252020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252020
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
419 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW METTER 32.43N 82.09W
09/25/2011 CANDLER GA PUBLIC

60 PECAN TREES DOWNED AT 4940 HWY 23 NORTH. TIME
ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100950

$$

RJB

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KGSP [252020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 252020
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL LINCOLNTON 35.48N 81.25W
09/25/2011 E2.00 INCH LINCOLN NC PUBLIC


&&

$$

TBENTHAL

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KPAH [252009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 252009
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1151 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 NW POPLAR BLUFF 36.84N 90.50W
09/25/2011 M1.94 INCH BUTLER MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CTN

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KLOT [252001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 252001
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
301 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HAIL 1 SW DIXON 41.84N 89.49W
09/25/2011 E0.25 INCH LEE IL COCORAHS

RAIN WITH THUNDER STARTED 1130 AM. PEA SIZED HAIL BEGAN
NOON, ENDED 1203 PM. RAIN ENDED 1220 PM.


&&

$$

BN

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KPAH [252001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 252001
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0259 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE CAPE GIRARDEAU 37.32N 89.54W
09/25/2011 M4.00 INCH CAPE GIRARDEAU MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CTN

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KMKX [252001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 252001
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 SE SOUTH WAYNE 42.55N 89.85W
09/25/2011 LAFAYETTE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED AROUND 255 PM IN FAR SOUTHEAST
LAFAYETTE COUNTY.


&&

$$

MEB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251957
SWODY1
SPC AC 251956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX
AND MID MS VALLEY...

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST
CHANGE IS TO ADD A 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY ACROSS GA AND SC WHERE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED BY A FEW OF THE STRONGER
CELLS. THE LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED NWD INTO
PARTS OF WCNTRL NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE NRN END
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO TRIM ON THE WRN
EDGE OF THE THUNDER-LINE ACROSS SCNTRL MO WHERE A COLD FRONT AND LOW
CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING THE AIRMASS STABLE. THE THIRD CHANGE IS TO
REMOVE PARTS OF ERN PA FROM THE THUNDER AREA WHERE THE MODELS DO NOT
DEVELOP STORMS. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 09/25/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011/

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE SRN/ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW IN EXTREME SE OK WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS AR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE...REACHING THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN/OCCLUDE OVERNIGHT
WHILE MOVING NWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MI. AT THE SAME TIME...A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS N/NE TX AND AR INTO NW MS AND
NRN LA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING QUICKLY NEWD FROM E TX/LA...WITH
MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NE AS SRN/CENTRAL
AR. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH 60 DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING AS FAR N AS WRN KY.
MEANWHILE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD TO THE MS
RIVER FROM THE SRN PLAINS...ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THESE PROCESSES...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD
BREAKS...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG INTO AR.
LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE AR...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH NEWD FROM
THERE...AND BACKBUILD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD NRN LA THIS EVENING.

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT IN AR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE BACK-BUILDING STORMS LATER
THIS EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FARTHER TO THE NE TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ACROSS INDIANA/WRN OH TO
THE E OF THE DEEPENING LOW...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEMPER THESE
THREATS.

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KGSP [251955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 251955
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG LINCOLNTON 35.48N 81.25W
09/25/2011 LINCOLN NC 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL TREES DOWN, SOME ON BUILDINGS. HAIL-SIZE UNKNOWN.

&&

$$

TBENTHAL

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KFFC [251954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 251954
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0306 PM HAIL SCOTT 32.55N 82.67W
09/25/2011 E0.75 INCH JOHNSON GA EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

JLF

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KMKX [251937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 251937
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
237 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 NW MONTICELLO 42.79N 89.65W
09/25/2011 GREEN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO MOVING SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST.


&&

$$

MEB

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KCHS [251933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 251933
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW METTER 32.42N 82.07W
09/25/2011 CANDLER GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES ON POWER LINES ON CEDAR STREET. TIME
ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100949

$$

RJB

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KCHS [251925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 251925
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
325 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM HAIL RINCON 32.30N 81.24W
09/25/2011 M1.75 INCH EFFINGHAM GA PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100947

$$

RJB

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KCHS [251924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 251924
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
323 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM TSTM WND DMG RINCON 32.30N 81.24W
09/25/2011 EFFINGHAM GA PUBLIC

TWO LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON A CAR. ESTIMATES WINDS OF
70 MPH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100948

$$

33

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KCHS [251920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 251920
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
320 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM HAIL RINCON 32.30N 81.24W
09/25/2011 M1.75 INCH EFFINGHAM GA PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100947

$$

RJB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2198

ACUS11 KWNS 251903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251903
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-252130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH ERN AR INTO NWRN MS AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251903Z - 252130Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL THROUGH ERN AR
AND WRN TN BY 20-22Z. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
THROUGH MID EVENING. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z-21Z.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN
TN...CNTRL AR AND N-CNTRL TX. THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE WRN TN VALLEY AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE
WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN AR WHERE PLUME OF 7.5-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
OVERSPREAD MOIST AXIS RESULTING IN 2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS CAPPED. HOWEVER...CIRRUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
AN UPPER JET MOVING SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW.
COMBINATION OF DIABATIC WARMING AND DEEPER ASCENT WITHIN FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SSWLY OVER
SRN AR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE. LARGEST HODOGRAPHS
EXIST FARTHER EAST ALONG MIGRATORY LLJ AXIS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
TN VALLEY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT AND EXPECTED STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MIXED
MODES WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 09/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33259306 34749335 35998943 35478874 34738957 33329134
33259306

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KFFC [251832]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 251832
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0223 PM HAIL 3 N KITE 32.74N 82.51W
09/25/2011 M0.88 INCH JOHNSON GA EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

VSMITH

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KGSP [251827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 251827
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL LAURENS 34.50N 82.03W
09/25/2011 E1.25 INCH LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE REPORTED IN THE CITY OF
LAURENS BY SPOTTER.


&&

$$

JPT

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KGSP [251825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 251825
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 PM TSTM WND DMG LAURENS 34.50N 82.03W
09/25/2011 LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF
LAURENS.


&&

$$

JPT

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251723
SWODY2
SPC AC 251722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A CIRCULAR PATTERN AROUND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
CONVECTION MOVING EWD AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY DEVELOP SOME
INSTABILITY IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN
THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE. THE WIND PROFILE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STILL COULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS IF SOME OF
THE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE DUE TO THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT IN THE MID-AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY
BECOMES MAXIMIZED. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 30 KT COMBINED
WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY ALSO SUPPORT A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TEND TO LINE OUT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DESTABILIZATION WITH THE MODELS
KEEPING INSTABILITY WEAK. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT
APPEAR JUSTIFIED FOR THIS OUTLOOK.

...ARKLATEX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND ARKLATEX.
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG AND
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET. HAVE CONTINUED A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY LINE IN THE
ARKLATEX BUT MOVED THE THREAT SWD TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS. AN
ISOLATED HAIL THREAT COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS NE
TX...SRN AR AND NRN LA IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES.. 09/25/2011

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KLOT [251714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 251714
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1214 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HAIL ROSCOE 42.42N 89.01W
09/25/2011 E0.25 INCH WINNEBAGO IL PUBLIC

RELAYED FROM WREX.


&&

$$

CM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251632
SWODY1
SPC AC 251630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE SRN/ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW IN EXTREME SE OK WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS AR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE...REACHING THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN/OCCLUDE OVERNIGHT
WHILE MOVING NWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MI. AT THE SAME TIME...A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS N/NE TX AND AR INTO NW MS AND
NRN LA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING QUICKLY NEWD FROM E TX/LA...WITH
MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NE AS SRN/CENTRAL
AR. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH 60 DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING AS FAR N AS WRN KY.
MEANWHILE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD TO THE MS
RIVER FROM THE SRN PLAINS...ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THESE PROCESSES...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD
BREAKS...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG INTO AR.
LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE AR...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH NEWD FROM
THERE...AND BACKBUILD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD NRN LA THIS EVENING.

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT IN AR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE BACK-BUILDING STORMS LATER
THIS EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FARTHER TO THE NE TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ACROSS INDIANA/WRN OH TO
THE E OF THE DEEPENING LOW...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEMPER THESE
THREATS.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/25/2011

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KSEW [251627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 251627
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
927 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0926 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E NOON 48.80N 122.37W
09/25/2011 M76 MPH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

GUST OCCURRED AROUND 5 AM.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KRNK [251611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 251611
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1211 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW BOONE 36.21N 81.68W
09/25/2011 WATAUGA NC PUBLIC

BOONE CREEK FLOODED SEVERAL BUILDINGS ON THE APPALACHIAN
STATE CAMPUS.

0720 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 W BOONE 36.21N 81.77W
09/25/2011 WATAUGA NC PUBLIC

WATAUGA RIVER FLOODED A BRIDGE ALONG DEWITT BARNETT ROAD
IN THE VALLE CRUCIS AREA.


&&

$$

WHP

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KJAX [251603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 251603
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1202 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM TSTM WND DMG HORTENSE 31.33N 81.96W
09/25/2011 BRANTLEY GA EMERGENCY MNGR

APPROXIMATELY ONE HUNDRED TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN IN THE
HORTENSE AREA...MANY WERE LARGE OAK TREES. ONE MOBILE
HOME WAS DESTROYED. TWO MOBILE HOMES WERE DAMAGED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BUSINESS ROOF. A LARGE DRUM FILLED
WITH LIQUID WAS CARRIED APPROXIMATELY 80 YARDS. TIME WAS
ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR.


&&

$$

ECZ

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KLSX [251356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 251356
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
856 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HAIL 2 SSE CHESTER 37.89N 89.81W
09/25/2011 E0.25 INCH RANDOLPH IL COCORAHS


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KMFR [251305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 251305
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
605 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0551 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE SEIAD VALLEY 41.86N 123.16W
09/25/2011 E45 MPH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT 0150 RIDGE TOP WINDS WERE HOWLING ACROSS THE VALLEY.
BY 0330 THERE WERE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT THE SPOTTER
LOCATION. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED AND ARE STILL
OCCURING AT 0551.


&&

$$

GLASER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251237
SWODY1
SPC AC 251235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF AR INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...ARKLATEX INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NWRN IL/ERN IA WILL DRIFT WWD TODAY
BEFORE TURNING MORE SEWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE D1 PERIOD.
THIS IRREGULAR MOTION IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO A NUMBER OF VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND PARENT CIRCULATION. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE OVER S-CNTRL OK IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD
ALONG ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ACCELERATING NNEWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO
NEAR CHICAGO BY 26/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY.

THE RETURN OF AN MT AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN TX/WRN LA...A
TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AR TODAY...BUT IN A NARROWING
FASHION BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT AND A DEEPLY MIXED AND DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING OVER THE MS DELTA. THIS PROCESS WILL
OCCUR BENEATH ERN EXTENSION OF EML PLUME EMANATING FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES...YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON FROM
CNTRL AR INTO NERN TX WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG.

ELEVATED TSTMS ONGOING OVER SRN MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SWD
INTO CNTRL AR MAY PERSIST TODAY...DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DCVA
IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING SEWD THROUGH THE OZARK
PLATEAU. STORMS MAY BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE BASED BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS AR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE. ADDITIONAL...MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE SWWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AS CAP IS ERODED BY STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING FORECAST W OF DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

THE CORRIDOR FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT /I.E.
SW-CNTRL-NE AR/ APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HERE...A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALIGN WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
THIS SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH WRN
PARTS OF TN/KY THIS EVENING WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED ISALLOBARIC
FORCING ALONG SURFACE LOW TRACK. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH NWD EXTENT...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN WITH
A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

...OH VALLEY TONIGHT...

MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE E OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE
DRAWN WWD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE
MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO YIELD POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTMS
TONIGHT FROM KY NWD INTO IND/OH. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS GIVEN SSWLY WINDS INCREASING TO
50+ KT JUST ABOVE THE GROUND.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/25/2011

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KGSP [251029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 251029
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NW JONAS RIDGE 36.00N 81.94W
09/25/2011 AVERY NC 911 CALL CENTER

BRIDGE CLOSED ON GREENE ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

$$

NED

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KRNK [250920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 250920
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
520 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE TODD 36.31N 81.60W
09/25/2011 ASHE NC 911 CALL CENTER

WATER FLOODING TODD RAILROAD GRADE ROAD. ADDITIONAL
STREET FLOODED IN THE TOWN OF TODD.


&&

$$

KKOSTURA

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KRNK [250912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 250912
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
512 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0357 AM FLASH FLOOD FLEETWOOD 36.30N 81.52W
09/25/2011 ASHE NC 911 CALL CENTER

CRANBERRY CREEK FLOODED LIBERTY GROVE CHURCH ROAD.
SEVERAL OTHER STREETS FLOODED IN FLEETWOOD AREA.


&&

$$

KKOSTURA

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KRNK [250902]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 250902
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM FLASH FLOOD BOONE 36.21N 81.67W
09/25/2011 WATAUGA NC PUBLIC

KRAUT CREEK FLOODED MALL ROAD.


&&

$$

KKOSTURA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250821
SWOD48
SPC AC 250820

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...

NOTABLE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY UPPER LOW BY DAY4.
ECMWF MAINTAINS A CLOSED CIRCULATION INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE
THIS FEATURE FINALLY LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS EJECTING FEATURE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON FOR
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SEVERE OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 09/25/2011

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KRNK [250809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 250809
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM FLASH FLOOD BOONE 36.21N 81.67W
09/25/2011 WATAUGA NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 321 IN BOONE.


&&

$$

KKOSTURA

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KGSP [250726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 250726
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 N WOODLAWN 35.80N 82.04W
09/25/2011 MCDOWELL NC 911 CALL CENTER

ONE LANE FLOODED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 221 AND
226

0120 AM DEBRIS FLOW 3 SSE SPRUCE PINE 35.88N 82.06W
09/25/2011 MITCHELL NC 911 CALL CENTER

A SMALL MUD SLIDE WAS REPORTED NEAR HIGHWAY 226 NEAR
GRASSY CREEK.


&&

$$

NED

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250659
SWODY3
SPC AC 250658

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO LOWER MI BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALONG THE ERN-SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
THAT SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AIDS
AN OTHERWISE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO
NOT PROJECT A PARTICULARLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT...PERIODIC BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY THAT COULD ENHANCE UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO ERN TN. ANOTHER REGION WHERE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS COULD EVOLVE WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF TX. THIS SWRN REGION
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LITTLE IF
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS BOTH OF
THESE AREAS IS JUST TOO LOW TO WARRANT PROBS AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 09/25/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250531
SWODY1
SPC AC 250529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT DOES...AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE FORMS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY...WITH ONLY SUBTLE SHIFTS TO THE POSITION OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
/CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES/ WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN A NARROWING PLUME ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE...FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND AREAS NEAR OR SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE INDICATES MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AIDED BY AN INFLUX OFF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD AGAIN BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST. THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH A REMNANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

...SERN PLAINS INTO UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IS
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW. IN ITS WAKE...AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE ADVECTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. COUPLED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS PROBABLE ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH LIKELY WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS INHIBITION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES...AND PERHAPS AN
EVOLVING DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE OR STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT EAST
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.

..KERR/DEAN.. 09/25/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250528
SWODY2
SPC AC 250526

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING A SLIGHT EWD DISPLACEMENT
OF UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN IL TOWARD THE CHI AREA. BENEATH THIS SLOW
MOVING CYCLONE IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SFC BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE TO A
POSITION FROM THE MI/IND BORDER...ARCING SEWD ALONG THE IND/OH
BORDER BY 26/18Z. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE EXHIBITS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. IF BREAKS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...ROBUST UPDRAFTS
MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE LOW PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR A RISK OF WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL.

...ARKLATEX...

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL FROM NRN
MS...SWWD INTO NERN TX. DURING THE EVENING HOURS A LLJ SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS NERN TX THEN VEER TOWARD SRN AR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 850MB
WILL YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AS MOISTURE RETURNS ATOP THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
COOL SIDE OF THE WIND SHIFT THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 09/25/2011

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