Thursday, October 4, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2023

ACUS11 KWNS 050355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050354
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...FAR NWRN AR...SERN/E-CNTRL
KS...CNTRL/SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 050354Z - 050630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN UPTICK IN ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE
SHALLOW COLD DOME. REGIONAL RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION...THUS FAR...HAS BEEN MOST ROBUST FROM CNTRL
MO INTO E-CNTRL/SERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...RELATIVELY WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE AIDED IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEIGHT
FALLS/ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR
PARCELS ROOTED WITHIN THE NEARLY SATURATED LAYER APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB BENEATH AN EML...STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AND...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...OCCASIONALLY PERSISTENT MULTICELL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ABSENCE OF GREATER
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38659184 37339309 35859482 35489606 35689681 36629705
38209583 39239421 39469339 39579233 39379185 38659184

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KMLB [050142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 050142
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
942 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HEAVY RAIN SSW GROVELAND 28.56N 81.85W
10/04/2012 M6.30 INCH LAKE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER MEASURED 6.30 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 530
PM AND 930 PM.


&&

$$

JRC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050056
SWODY1
SPC AC 050053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN OK/NWRN AR NEWD INTO CNTRL MO...
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD DOME THAT HAS
OOZED SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED BY AREA
VWP DATA THAT DEPICT VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES ABOVE A
SHALLOW LAYER OF NLY/S. AND...WITH THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CNTRL PLAINS...INCREASING
POST-SFC-FRONTAL ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 03Z. OVER
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN EML WELL SAMPLED BY THE 00Z NORMAN OK
RAOB...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR NEARLY SATURATED PARCELS ROOTED BETWEEN
850 AND 800 MB. WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR CONTRIBUTED BY
MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 10/05/2012

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KALY [042235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 042235
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM FLOOD POUGHKEEPSIE 41.70N 73.92W
10/04/2012 DUTCHESS NY EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO STRANDED VEHICLES IN HIGH WATER ON SOUTH GATE
DRIVE. REPORT FROM NY STATE OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200279

$$

BGM

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KJAX [042232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 042232
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
632 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE LAKESIDE 30.10N 81.72W
10/04/2012 E2.70 INCH CLAY FL BROADCAST MEDIA

BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED PUBLIC REPORT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 2.70 INCHES ON FLEMING ISLAND.


&&

$$

JHESS

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KTBW [042200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 042200
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
559 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 E SAINT PETERSBURG 27.77N 82.63W
10/04/2012 M39 MPH PINELLAS FL ASOS

34 KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED AT KSPG.


&&

$$

CLOSE

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KJAX [042155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 042155
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ENE JACKSONVILLE INTL 30.50N 81.62W
10/04/2012 M3.62 INCH DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 3.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM
AFTERNOON STORMS. MINOR STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN LOCAL
NEIGHBORHOODS.


&&

$$

JHESS

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KTBW [042145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 042145
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
544 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE TAMPA 27.92N 82.44W
10/04/2012 M39.00 MPH HILLSBOROUGH FL C-MAN STATION

35 KNOT WIND GUST AT TAMPA BAY PORTS STATION LOCATED AT
BERTH 223.


&&

$$

CLOSE

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KOKX [042140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 042140
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
540 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N SPRING VALLEY 41.12N 74.05W
10/04/2012 ROCKLAND NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

UNION ROAD CLOSED AT STONEHOUSE ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

$$

DH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2022

ACUS11 KWNS 042139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042139
FLZ000-042345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042139Z - 042345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA MAY CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW
IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT THE AIR MASS REMAINS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT ALREADY TAKEN
PLACE. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS STRONGEST ALONG THE WEST-COAST SEA BREEZE
THAT HAS SHIFTED INLAND SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS WILL
FOCUS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR/NORTH OF THE
SARASOTA AREA TOWARD OCALA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM
GAINESVILLE TOWARD LOCATIONS WEST OF ORLANDO INVOF AN AGGREGATE
EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH AROUND 20 KT
OF FLOW WITHIN THE 4.5-6.5-KM-AGL LAYER PER TAMPA BAY AREA VWP
DATA...STORMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE NWWD AND EXHIBIT PULSE TO
OCCASIONALLY MULTICELLULAR MODES. PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LACKING WITH ANY STRONG-STORM THREAT ISOLATED
PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29448139 28808138 28478158 28228186 28018219 27858251
27878275 28278268 28808262 29418262 29768243 29928204
29448139

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KTBW [042135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 042135
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
535 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0503 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SSE TAMPA 27.91N 82.45W
10/04/2012 M46 MPH HILLSBOROUGH FL MESONET

40 KNOT WIND GUST ON DAVIS ISLAND.


&&

$$

JILLSON

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KJAX [042030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 042030
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W KINGS BAY BASE 30.79N 81.57W
10/04/2012 CAMDEN GA 911 CALL CENTER

911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A COUPLE OF LINES DOWN AND
TRANSFORMERS THAT BLEW DURING THE STORM IN THE ST MARYS
VICINITY. PEA SIZE HAIL WAS NOTED AS WELL. TIME IS
ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.


&&

$$

JHESS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 042000
SWODY1
SPC AC 041959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OK/SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR...
NEGLIGIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...SEE PRIOR REASONING AS BELOW.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK...INITIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/PORTIONS OF MO/NORTHERN OK...AND BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS TONIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/04/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012/

...ERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING S/SWWD FROM A SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD FROM MN
INTO ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE FRONT FROM FAR SE
KS/SW MO INTO NE OK. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A
LOW THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST.

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KJAX [041957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 041957
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL 5 S PALATKA 29.58N 81.66W
10/04/2012 E0.50 INCH PUTNAM FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

PUTNAM COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS HALF INCH HAIL NEAR
DUNNS CREEK BRIDGE.


&&

$$

LETRO

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KFGF [041919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 041919
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
219 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM HEAVY SNOW GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
10/04/2012 M3.5 INCH GRAND FORKS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

$$

JAM

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KTFX [041851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 041851
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1250 PM MDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW 4 NE HILGER 47.29N 109.30W
10/03/2012 E4.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3.5 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL NEAR ROY.


&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [041742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 041742
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1141 AM MDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 AM SNOW 7 W FAIRFIELD 47.62N 112.13W
10/03/2012 M2.0 INCH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. POWER OUT IN PARTS OF
FAIRFIELD.

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW 11 WSW BABB 48.80N 113.67W
10/03/2012 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. MANY GLACIER
ELEVATION 4900 FEET.

0506 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NW HEART BUTTE 48.30N 112.85W
10/03/2012 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER MEASURED 1.10 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION AND 5.5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 6 PM YESTERDAY.

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 11 WSW BABB 48.80N 113.67W
10/03/2012 M7.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. MANY GLACIER
ELEVATION 4900 FEET.

0714 AM SNOW 8 NE CHOTEAU 47.89N 112.06W
10/03/2012 M1.0 INCH TETON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER REPORTS 0.23 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

0717 AM SNOW MONTANA CITY 46.54N 111.93W
10/03/2012 M2.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0758 AM SNOW 13 S MARYSVILLE 46.56N 112.31W
10/03/2012 M2.8 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT NWS EMPLOYEE

2.8 INCHES OF SNOW AT MACDONALD PASS. 0.22 INCHES WATER
EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW 3 NNE CRAIG 47.11N 111.94W
10/03/2012 M3.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 8 WSW FAIRFIELD 47.58N 112.15W
10/03/2012 M3.5 INCH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 24 W BYNUM 47.92N 112.82W
10/03/2012 M9.0 INCH TETON MT MESONET

9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE PAST 9 HOURS. MOUNT
LOCKHART ELEVATION 6400 FEET.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 15 SW DUPUYER 48.06N 112.76W
10/03/2012 M9.0 INCH TETON MT MESONET

9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AT DUPUYER
CREEK. ELEVATION 5750 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW 9 SE ROCKY BOY 48.17N 109.65W
10/03/2012 M3.0 INCH HILL MT MESONET

3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 7 HOURS AT ROCKY BOY.
ELEVATION 4700 FEET.

0802 AM SNOW 9 W HELENA 46.60N 112.21W
10/03/2012 M1.5 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT NWS EMPLOYEE

1.5 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE EAST SIDE BASE OF MACDONALD
PASS.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
10/03/2012 E10.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BADGER PASS ELEVATION
6900 FEET.

0932 AM SNOW 10 NW WOLF CREEK 47.11N 112.22W
10/03/2012 M3.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT NWS EMPLOYEE

2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ON RT 434 NW OF WOLF CREEK. 0.42
INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT. WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH
VISIBILITY AROUND 1 MILE.

0938 AM SNOW 8 SE ULM 47.35N 111.39W
10/03/2012 M3.0 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0.54 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION MEASURED.

0950 AM SNOW 17 ENE LINCOLN 47.05N 112.35W
10/03/2012 M4.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT NWS EMPLOYEE

0.35 LIQUID CONTENT

0950 AM SNOW 15 WNW WOLF CREEK 47.08N 112.37W
10/03/2012 M4.5 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT NWS EMPLOYEE

0.44 LIQUID CONTENT

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 24 W BYNUM 47.92N 112.82W
10/03/2012 M11.0 INCH TETON MT MESONET

11 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. MOUNT
LOCKHART ELEVATION 6400 FEET.

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 23 W BYNUM 47.92N 112.79W
10/03/2012 M8.0 INCH TETON MT MESONET

8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. WALDRON
SNOTEL ELEVATION 5600 FEET.

1200 PM SNOW 11 SW CUT BANK 48.52N 112.50W
10/03/2012 E3.0 INCH GLACIER MT PUBLIC

3 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CUT BANK.

0310 PM SNOW 18 SSW FORESTGROVE 46.77N 109.28W
10/03/2012 M5.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 24 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 5.0 INCHES. LIQUID 0.35
INCHES. ELEVATION 5500 FEET.

0610 PM SNOW 11 ESE HIGHWOOD 47.53N 110.58W
10/03/2012 M7.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT CO-OP OBSERVER

7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. 1.32 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIV.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [041740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 041740
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW 11 SW CUT BANK 48.52N 112.50W
10/03/2012 E3.0 INCH GLACIER MT PUBLIC

3 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CUT BANK.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [041739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 041739
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1138 AM MDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 AM SNOW 7 W FAIRFIELD 47.62N 112.13W
10/03/2012 M2.0 INCH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. POWER OUT IN PARTS OF
FAIRFIELD.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [041737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 041737
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1137 AM MDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 23 W BYNUM 47.92N 112.79W
10/03/2012 M8.0 INCH TETON MT MESONET

8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. WALDRON
SNOTEL ELEVATION 5600 FEET.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT

$$

BRUSDA

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KFGF [041732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 041732
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0647 AM SNOW 6 E LANKIN 48.31N 97.79W
10/04/2012 M1.7 INCH WALSH ND CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

0721 AM HEAVY SNOW GREENBUSH 48.70N 96.18W
10/04/2012 M4.0 INCH ROSEAU MN CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

0800 AM SNOW MICHIGAN 48.03N 98.12W
10/04/2012 M3.3 INCH NELSON ND CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

0826 AM SNOW 2 SE MAYVILLE 47.48N 97.30W
10/04/2012 M3.0 INCH TRAILL ND NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

1027 AM HEAVY SNOW KARLSTAD 48.58N 96.52W
10/04/2012 E5.0 INCH KITTSON MN BROADCAST MEDIA

RELAYED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA.


&&

$$

JAM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041731
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS ON
FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE A
DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH OTHERWISE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE PLAINS.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVANCING COLD FRONT...CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/MO/NORTHWEST AR INTO
THE MIDWEST. THE RELATIVELY STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/GREATEST
BUOYANCY...ALBEIT MODEST...ON FRIDAY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS. IN THESE
AREAS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT UPDRAFTS ATOP THE SHALLOW FRONT
MAY BE SHEARED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SEMI-SUSTAINED/STRONG
TSTMS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD /LIKELY ON
AN ISOLATED BASIS/. AT THE SAME TIME...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY
BE APPROACHED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AR/ARKLATEX VICINITY NEAR A
POSSIBLE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...SUCH THAT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE BASED
TSTMS /WITH WIND/ MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 10/04/2012

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KEAX [041709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 041709
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1208 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HAIL MAYSVILLE 39.89N 94.36W
10/04/2012 E0.25 INCH DEKALB MO CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA TO DIME-SIZED HAIL REPORTED.


&&

$$

SAW

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KEAX [041654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 041654
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HAIL OREGON 39.98N 95.14W
10/04/2012 E1.00 INCH HOLT MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW QUARTER-SIZED HAILSTONES WERE REPORTED. THE
MAJORITY OF HAIL WAS NICKEL-SIZED AND SMALLER.


&&

$$

SAW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041610
SWODY1
SPC AC 041608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING S/SWWD FROM A SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD FROM MN
INTO ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE FRONT FROM FAR SE
KS/SW MO INTO NE OK. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A
LOW THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST.

..LEITMAN.. 10/04/2012

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KBIS [041605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 041605
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1105 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 AM SNOW UNDERWOOD 47.46N 101.14W
10/04/2012 M1.0 INCH MCLEAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL.


&&

$$

RK

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KBIS [041605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 041605
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1105 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1104 AM SNOW STREETER 46.66N 99.35W
10/04/2012 M3.0 INCH STUTSMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL.


&&

$$

RK

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KBIS [041601]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 041601
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1101 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW BOWMAN 46.18N 103.39W
10/04/2012 E3.0 INCH BOWMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ESTIMATED DUE TO MELTING.


&&

$$

RK

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KBIS [041533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KBIS 041533
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1033 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW WISHEK 46.26N 99.56W
10/04/2012 M4.0 INCH MCINTOSH ND CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

CORRECTED EVENT

$$

AJ

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KBIS [041528]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 041528
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1027 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW WISHEK 46.26N 99.56W
10/04/2012 M3.0 INCH MCINTOSH ND CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

AJ

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KOAX [041456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 041456
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
956 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM HAIL HUMBOLDT 40.17N 95.94W
10/04/2012 E0.75 INCH RICHARDSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

VDEWALD

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KBIS [041452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 041452
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 AM SNOW CARRINGTON 47.45N 99.13W
10/04/2012 M2.0 INCH FOSTER ND TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL


&&

$$

AJ

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KBIS [041431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 041431
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE HARVEY 47.82N 99.86W
10/04/2012 M1.90 INCH WELLS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAIN. THERE WAS SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT IT
MELTED AS IT FELL.


&&

$$

RK

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KLWX [041348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KLWX 041348
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
948 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM TSTM WND DMG LIGNUM 38.42N 77.83W
09/27/2012 CULPEPER VA PUBLIC

TREES WERE DOWN ALONG ROUTE 3 NEAR LIGNUM ROAD.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201363

$$

BJL

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KLWX [041348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KLWX 041348
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
947 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM HAIL LIGNUM 38.42N 77.83W
09/27/2012 E1.75 INCH CULPEPER VA PUBLIC


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201362

$$

BJL

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KFGF [041342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 041342
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
841 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM HEAVY SNOW GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
10/04/2012 E3.5 INCH GRAND FORKS ND NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE TREE SNAPPED AND SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.


&&

$$

JAM

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KLWX [041323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 041323
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0928 PM HAIL LIGNUM 38.42N 77.83W
09/27/2012 E1.75 INCH CULPEPER VA PUBLIC

0928 PM TSTM WND DMG LIGNUM 38.42N 77.83W
09/27/2012 CULPEPER VA PUBLIC

TREES WERE DOWN ALONG ROUTE 3 NEAR LIGNUM ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201362
EVENT NUMBER LWX1201363

$$

BJL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041225
SWODY1
SPC AC 041224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE TIED TO THE UPPER WAVE WILL
PROGRESS IN A SIMILAR WAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES E
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SWWD EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY SETTLE SWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SRN PLAINS BY
05/12Z. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORCED BY THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM OK/KS NEWD INTO LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING. A MOIST AND WEAKLY
BUOYANT AIRMASS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION
NEWD INTO WRN ME. ELSEWHERE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
S ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY.

...ERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
AR/MO BORDER SWWD INTO ERN OK/NRN TX TONIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION
ABOVE THE FRONT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1500
J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FRONTAL ASCENT WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AND POSE A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WLYS YIELD EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/04/2012

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KFGF [041214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 041214
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
713 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
10/04/2012 M3.0 INCH GRAND FORKS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

SPEICHER

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KFGF [041152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 041152
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0651 AM HEAVY SNOW ARGYLE 48.34N 96.82W
10/04/2012 M2.2 INCH MARSHALL MN CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SO FAR THIS MORNING


&&

$$

SPEICHER

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KFGF [041118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 041118
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
618 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 AM HEAVY SNOW LANKIN 48.31N 97.92W
10/04/2012 E3.0 INCH WALSH ND CO-OP OBSERVER

ESTIMATES ABOUT 2.5 TO 3.0 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR THIS
MORNING


&&

$$

SPEICHER

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