Tuesday, May 17, 2011

KCAE [172139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 172139
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
539 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 1 S JOHNSTON 33.82N 81.80W
05/17/2011 E0.88 INCH EDGEFIELD SC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR JOHNSTON.


&&

$$

VAUGHAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [172038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 172038
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
438 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ENE FRONT ROYAL 38.94N 78.13W
05/17/2011 WARREN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MORGAN FORD ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOOD ON MANASSAS
RUN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100646

$$

SBK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [172021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 172021
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
421 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 1 WNW SCHUYLER 37.80N 78.72W
05/17/2011 E1.00 INCH NELSON VA PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100645

$$

HAS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [172016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172016
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM WILDFIRE 8 SSW STEVEN FOSTER STA 30.70N 82.37W
05/17/2011 WARE GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE BURNT AREA WAS AROUND 128860
ACRES.


&&

$$

ARS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGSP [171955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 171955
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0341 PM HAIL TOCCOA 34.58N 83.32W
05/17/2011 E0.25 INCH STEPHENS GA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED PEA-SIZED HAIL IN WALMART PARKING LOT.


&&

$$

JPT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171948
SWODY1
SPC AC 171947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE VA AREA...

...MID ATLANTIC...
AT MID AFTERNOON...STRONG VORTICITY MAX HAD SHIFTED NWWD INTO SRN VA
TO NEAR LYH...WITH STRONGER FORCING LOCATED IN WRN/NRN VA. AS VORT
MAX TURNS MORE WWD TOWARD WV...STRONGER FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO
VA...THOUGH DENSER CLOUDS AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT WWD
EXTENT OF SEVERE STORMS. WHILE STORMS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUB
SEVERE...WITH A FEW DEGREES HEATING...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN AND WRN VA. THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT SUGGEST HAIL
IS THE MAIN THREAT.

SINCE STRONGER FORCING HAS MOVED NWWD OUT OF NC AND DRIER AIR IS
SLOWLY FILTERING IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN IN NRN NC. ALSO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE
LOWERED IN PA AS THE MAIN FORCING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF STATE.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM SWRN CO/NERN NM...STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS AREA
IS STABLE...SO ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STAY
SEVERE VERY LONG. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAPHICAL LINES.

..IMY.. 05/17/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011/

...MID ATLANTIC...

STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL/ERN NC AS OF LATE MORNING WILL
PIVOT NWWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL NC WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NWWD INTO WRN VA
BY TONIGHT. DCVA IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM COUPLED WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE PRESENCE OF 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE THE
STRONGEST DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND RESULTANT 35-40 KT OF DEEP SELY
SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT WITHIN WARM
SECTOR.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 796.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT 50-55 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER
WRN CO INTO NWRN NM AS OF MID MORNING WILL TRANSLATE NEWD
TODAY...WITH HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT PROGRESSIVELY
OVERSPREADING LEE CYCLONE AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS ERN
CO INTO THE WRN OK/TX PNHDLS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLY TIMED ARRIVAL
OF THIS IMPULSE...THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE LEE MOUNTAIN CIRRUS
/AND ITS POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACT ON DAYTIME HEATING/ COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT MLCAPE
TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON E OF DRYLINE.

THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BUT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL LIKELY BE
TEMPERED BY THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOKX [171943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 171943
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD SOUTHAMPTON 40.88N 72.40W
05/17/2011 SUFFOLK NY PUBLIC

FLOODING ON NORTH SEA ROAD. WATER UP TO CAR DOORS IN
SOME AREAS.


&&

$$

JM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGLD [171915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 171915
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0113 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG GOODLAND 39.35N 101.71W
05/17/2011 SHERMAN KS PUBLIC

10-INCH DIAMETER TREE DAMAGED


&&

$$

CJS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171847
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0239 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 E LAHORE 38.19N 77.91W
05/17/2011 ORANGE VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 561 FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100644

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171833
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
233 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL CULPEPER 38.47N 78.00W
05/17/2011 E0.88 INCH CULPEPER VA 911 CALL CENTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL OBSERVED AT THE 911 CENTER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100643

$$

CJL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KLWX 171831
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W WINSTON 38.41N 78.02W
05/17/2011 CULPEPER VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 617 FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE NEAR ZACHARY TAYLOR
HIGHWAY. OTHER NEARBY ROADS ALSO REPORTED FLOODED.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100642

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171830
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W WINSTON 38.41N 78.02W
05/17/2011 CULPEPER VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 617 FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE NEAR ZACHARY TAYLOR
HIGHWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100642

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171752
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
152 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W LOCUST GROVE 38.31N 77.85W
05/17/2011 ORANGE VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

OLD OFFICE ROAD FLOODED NEAR MINE RUN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100641

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171751
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM FLOOD 2 SSW LANDES 38.88N 79.21W
05/17/2011 GRANT WV TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER REPORTED OVER ROAD ALONG US 220 NEAR THE
PENDLETON COUNTY LINE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100640

$$

CJL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171749
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM FLOOD 3 SSW HOOD 38.32N 78.40W
05/17/2011 GREENE VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DUNDEE ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100639

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171742
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
142 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 PM FLOOD 3 E LACEY SPRING 38.54N 78.70W
05/17/2011 ROCKINGHAM VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WAR BRANCH OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEY ROAD. ROAD IMPASSIBLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100638

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171740
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM FLOOD 2 WSW SEYMOURVILLE 39.04N 79.15W
05/17/2011 GRANT WV TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100637

$$

CJL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171725
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
125 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 PM FLOOD 3 ENE NEW MARKET 38.66N 78.63W
05/17/2011 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SMITH CREEK ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100636

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171721
SWODY2
SPC AC 171719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A MORE COMPACT AND
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IN THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES
REGION. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S.
UPPER LOW...WHILE SURFACE LOW WITH WRN SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED IN
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...KS AREA...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KS
...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK MOST OF WED
...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE WRN
UPPER TROUGH FROM NM NEWD INTO SWRN KS WED NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
SEVERE HAIL OVERNIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...
WHILE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
...THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING.
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE REGION
LATE DAY...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD INTO OK. INCREASING SLY
WINDS WILL ADVECT MID AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS... CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
SRN TX...ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND TX. HOWEVER ...STRONGER HEATING AND
MIXING WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD RESULT IN A DRYLINE TO
DEVELOP. WHILE STORMS THAT DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE/SOUTH OF WARM
FRONT CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR
SUPERCELLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS WILL BE
CAPPED. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...WARM ADVECTION MAY AID IN HIGHER
BASED STORMS. THE BEST PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO
EVOLVE IS MOSTLY LIKELY NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION
WOULD BE THE WEAKEST. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LOW PROBABILITY FOR
UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ATTM.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MODELS MAINTAIN ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
NWWD INTO PA. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD AT LEAST REMAIN IN THE UPPER
50S...SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL BE MAXIMIZED
DURING THE WARMER AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-16 TO -18C RANGE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT...MULTICELL
STORMS...A FEW WITH SHORT LIVED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL...APPEAR
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK
ISSUANCE.

..IMY.. 05/17/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPDT [171719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 171719
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1019 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 AM FLOOD 6 NW LA GRANDE 45.39N 118.17W
05/16/2011 UNION OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

THE GRANDE RONDE RIVER AT PERRY REACHED A NEW RECORD
FLOOD STAGE OF 7.7FT AT 740 AM PDT ON MAY 16TH.


&&

$$

DWEBER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171717
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
117 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0108 PM FLOOD 2 W LOCUST GROVE 38.31N 77.85W
05/17/2011 ORANGE VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

OLD OFFICE ROAD FLOODED NEAR MINE RUN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100635

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171715
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
115 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0108 PM FLOOD 2 N ARODA 38.35N 78.23W
05/17/2011 MADISON VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TOM JOHNSTON ROAD FLOODED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100634

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOTX [171635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 171635
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
934 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM FLOOD 10 NE MEAD 47.87N 117.20W
05/16/2011 SPOKANE WA BROADCAST MEDIA

SR206 WAS UNDERCUT BY THE CREEK...WHICH FORCED A
TEMPORARY CLOSURE OF THE EASTBOUND LANE.

0800 PM FLOOD CHEWELAH 48.29N 117.73W
05/16/2011 STEVENS WA BROADCAST MEDIA

CHEWELAH CREEK CAME OUT OF ITS BANKS TODAY FLOODING
PARKS...SIDEWALKS...AND STREETS NEAR THE CREEK IN
CHEWELAH.

0900 AM FLOOD CHEWELAH 48.29N 117.73W
05/17/2011 STEVENS WA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

US 395 CLOSED DUE TO CHEWELAH CREEK BETWEEN MILEPOST
206.69 AND MILEPOST 207.81.


&&

$$

CNEUMAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171633
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1233 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 PM FLOOD 3 N CLARY 39.07N 78.36W
05/17/2011 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

JULIUS KELLER ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100633

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171631
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 PM FLOOD 1 E JEROME 38.86N 78.72W
05/17/2011 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STONY CREEK FLOODED...CLOSING DELLINGER GAP ROAD AND
SUPINLICK RIDGE ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100632

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171629
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1229 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 PM FLOOD 2 SSE TOMS BROOK 38.93N 78.42W
05/17/2011 SHENANDOAH VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WOODVILLE ROAD FLOODED BY JORDAN RUN...AND RIVERVIEW
DRIVE FLOODED BY TOMS BROOK.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100631

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171627
SWODY1
SPC AC 171625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...

...MID ATLANTIC...

STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL/ERN NC AS OF LATE MORNING WILL
PIVOT NWWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL NC WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NWWD INTO WRN VA
BY TONIGHT. DCVA IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM COUPLED WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE PRESENCE OF 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE THE
STRONGEST DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND RESULTANT 35-40 KT OF DEEP SELY
SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT WITHIN WARM
SECTOR.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 796.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT 50-55 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER
WRN CO INTO NWRN NM AS OF MID MORNING WILL TRANSLATE NEWD
TODAY...WITH HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT PROGRESSIVELY
OVERSPREADING LEE CYCLONE AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS ERN
CO INTO THE WRN OK/TX PNHDLS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLY TIMED ARRIVAL
OF THIS IMPULSE...THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE LEE MOUNTAIN CIRRUS
/AND ITS POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACT ON DAYTIME HEATING/ COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT MLCAPE
TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON E OF DRYLINE.

THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BUT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL LIKELY BE
TEMPERED BY THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 05/17/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171609
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1209 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1159 AM FLOOD 1 N BROADWAY 38.62N 78.80W
05/17/2011 ROCKINGHAM VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LINVILLE CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS CAUSING FLOODING OF
SHENANDOAH AVENUE IN BROADWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100630

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171606
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1206 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1159 AM FLOOD 1 W FULKS RUN 38.66N 78.93W
05/17/2011 ROCKINGHAM VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LITTLE DRY RIVER FLOODING THIRD HILL ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100629

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171605
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1205 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1159 AM FLOOD 2 SSE TUNIS 38.67N 78.86W
05/17/2011 ROCKINGHAM VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SOURS RUN OUT OF ITS BANKS AND OVER SOURS RUN ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100628

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171552
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1152 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW STANARDSVILLE 38.32N 78.45W
05/17/2011 GREENE VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SPOTSWOOD TRAIL AND OCTONIA ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
NEAR STANARDSVILLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100627

$$

JE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLWX [171549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171549
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1149 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0726 PM HAIL 3 E ADEN 38.65N 77.49W
05/16/2011 E0.75 INCH PRINCE WILLIAM VA PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100626

$$

CJL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0796

ACUS11 KWNS 171514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171514
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-171715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN VA...SRN MD AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171514Z - 171715Z

STRONGER AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AMBIENT
VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THE CLOSED LOW TRACKING NNWWD FROM CENTRAL NC
AND SURFACE VORTICITY FOCUSED INVOF TWO WARM FRONTS OVER VA...A LOW
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL NC /40 SSW GSO/ WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY NWD. ONE WARM FRONT EXTENDED NNEWD FROM THIS LOW INTO WRN VA
/NEAR SHD/ AND THEN THROUGH SERN PA TO ALONG/S OF LONG ISLAND. A
SECOND WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY /PER VISIBLE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ EXTENDED NEWD INTO CENTRAL VA AND THEN
STRETCHED SEWD TO JUST N OF ORF. SURFACE HEATING ALONG/S OF THE
SECOND WARM FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70...EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING THE WEAK CAP THAT WAS PRESENT
ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SUPPORTING CU DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY. DESPITE THE DIABATIC HEATING...MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/6-6.5 C PER KM/ ARE TENDING TO INHIBIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH MORE
PERSISTENT STORMS TODAY.

AT 15Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS
MOVING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL VA WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG THE
SECONDARY WARM FRONT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TSTMS WERE ALSO
TRACKING NWD THROUGH NERN NC WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY ATTENDANT TO
STRONGER DCVA WITH A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE NERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NC CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS SPREAD ACROSS VA/NRN NC
SUPPORTING PRIMARILY MULTICELLS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
A WW IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 05/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 35147612 35957762 36187967 36248036 36738061 38117936
38717844 38917760 38697667 38357631 37607579 36277581
35147612

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGSP [171052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 171052
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM FLOOD HARRISBURG 35.32N 80.67W
05/17/2011 CABARRUS NC BROADCAST MEDIA

ROAD CLOSURE STALLING RD AT QUAIL HOLLOW DR.


&&

$$

07

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170832
SWOD48
SPC AC 170831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...AS EARLY AS DAY4. GIVEN THE RELUCTANCE OF
THE TROUGH TO ADVECT EWD...AND SHORT RANGE NAM GUIDANCE MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...IT APPEARS THE GFS MAY BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DAY4. FOR THIS
REASON WILL INTRODUCE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MORE
IN LINE WITH A DELAYED ECMWF. IT/S LIKELY THAT A MARITIME TROPICAL
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK
WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE PRIOR TO LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INTERACTION. IF TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH IS OPTIMIZED WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE THEN A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT MAY
EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF
THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON TROUGH PROGRESSION.

..DARROW.. 05/17/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170726
SWODY3
SPC AC 170725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

A MULTI-DAY SLY RETURN FLOW EPISODE SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CNTRL
KS/WRN OK BY 20/00Z. THIS STRONGER H5 FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE...OR FARTHER NORTH WITHIN A
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE...MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 ACROSS NRN KS/SRN
NEB.

WHILE A PRONOUNCED LLJ WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SOME OF IT COULD
PRODUCE HAIL...A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT SHOULD
EVOLVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS KS...SWD INTO WRN OK. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT STRONG SFC HEATING ACROSS SWRN KS...SWD INTO NWRN
TX WILL REINFORCE A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE THAT SHOULD MIX TO NEAR THE
TX/OK BORDER BY PEAK HEATING. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SUPERCELL INITIATION AS TEMPERATURES SOAR THROUGH THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE WIND SHIFT. JUST EAST-NORTH OF THE DRYLINE
HIGHER RH VALUES AND COOLER READINGS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THAT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE IN PLACE IF CLOUD BASES CAN LOWER AND ROOT INTO 60+ SFC DEW
POINTS. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A CONVECTIVE
INITIATOR...SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS KS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION...POSSIBLY AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT EXTEND
THE SLIGHT RISK INTO SWRN TX BUT THIS SCENARIO MAY REQUIRE AN
EXPANSION OF THE SEVERE OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHILE LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ELEVATED
ACTIVITY.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC UNTIL THE UPPER LOW OVER THIS REGION FINALLY EJECTS
OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER FEATURE BUT ENOUGH SUCH THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING.

..DARROW.. 05/17/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170602
SWODY1
SPC AC 170600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES/DELMARVA...

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA/CAROLINAS...
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS EARLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A NARROW WEDGE OF RELATIVELY HIGHER
THETA-E...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA VICINITY AMID A
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING FRONTAL ZONE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD/INFLUENCE THE
WARM SECTOR RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY /PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING/...MODEST
LOW LEVEL HEATING COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT...IN THE PRESENCE OF
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SRH /GENERALLY MAXIMIZED IN THE DELMARVA GENERAL
VICINITY/...SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WITH
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...GENERALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PORTION OF THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH PIVOTING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. EVEN SO...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS IMPLY ONLY A
MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF WIND AND/OR HAIL.

...HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND ATTENDANT SHARPENING OF A LEE TROUGH WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN EARLY TODAY/ IS EXPECTED TO
REACH/GRAZE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY AROUND PEAK HEATING. OF
NOTE...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE/CERTAIN
SEVERE RISK WILL BE THE LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT/PW. THAT
SAID...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /40S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...DPVA AND DEEP MIXING/MASS CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LEE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS...AND
PERHAPS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND/OR NEB PANHANDLE. SOME AT LEAST
BRIEFLY ORGANIZED STORMS/HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A DEEPLY MIXED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

..GUYER/SMITH.. 05/17/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170545
SWODY2
SPC AC 170543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF PSEUDO-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW. MODELS MAINTAIN ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DELMARVA
INTO ERN NC AND SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD HOLD FAVORABLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY
MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SEASONABLY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 16-20C AND SFC-6KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT IT WOULD SEEM ANOTHER BOUT OF ROBUST
TSTMS COULD EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM
TO NEAR 70F. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY A SLIGHT RISK
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

LEE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB SPEED MAX
ROTATES ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS...OK/TX
PANHANDLES. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK ELONGATED SFC LOW FROM SERN
CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WITH VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST AND
BY PEAK HEATING A FAIRLY SHARP ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
BE ESTABLISHED FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...SEWD INTO NWRN TX. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUXTAPOSED WITH
STRONGER FORCING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN CO/KS. EVEN SO...MODELS
SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF
I-40...BUT LIKELY MIX INTO THE 50S NEAR THE DRYLINE YIELDING SBCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
ATTEMPT TO ROOT BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WARM
SECTOR ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT ENHANCED PROBS
AND CONVECTION ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. LLJ SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
OK/KS AFTER DARK AND STRONG ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD EMERGE WITHIN
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER KS. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS
THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 05/17/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.