Wednesday, September 12, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1960

ACUS11 KWNS 130247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130247
LAZ000-TXZ000-130415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST/FAR SE TX AND FAR SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 130247Z - 130415Z

THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...WITH SOME TORNADO
THREAT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO SW
LA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AT 0230Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BAND
ATTENDANT TO T.S. HUMBERTO EXTENDED FROM SWRN LA...IN CAMERON PARISH
TO 115 SE GLS. LCH RADAR ALSO INDICATED SEVERAL PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL ROTATION COUPLETS WITHIN THIS BAND TRACKING TOWARD THE NNW.
HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS LOCATED ALONG AND OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH 0-3
KM SRH VALUES AROUND 135 M2/S2 SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO
THREAT TO INCREASE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS ROTATIONAL COUPLETS
TRACK TOWARD THE COAST.

LOW LEVEL NELY FLOW LOCATED AWAY FROM THE COAST IS ADVECTING LOW
THETA-E AIR MASS SWWD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT
FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SW LA
PARISHES OF CAMERON AND VERMILION...AND WWD INTO THE UPPER TX
COASTAL AREAS TO THE NE OF GLS.

.PETERS.. 09/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29309473 29789469 30039427 30139326 30029260 29519233
29209248 29259363 29079447

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130013
SWODY1
SPC AC 130011

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE UPPER TX COAST AND WRN
LA COAST...

..WESTERN GULF COAST...

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO CONTINUES ITS SLOW NWD DRIFT TOWARD THE
UPPER TX COAST. STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOW SPREADING
INLAND...MAINLY WITHIN THE NERN QUAD OF CYCLONE. VWP DATA FROM HGX
AND LCH HAVE NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS/SHEAR AS EXPECTED REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE INVOF CIRCULATION CENTER. AS HUMBERTO MOVES INLAND SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND
ATTENDANT LOW TORNADO THREAT.

..ELSEWHERE...

STRONG SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHARP FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ND TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z. INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WILL ENHANCE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT ACROSS MAINLY NRN MN INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

AS TEMPERATURES/BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE FROM THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SRN NM/FAR WEST TX.

.DARROW.. 09/13/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KTBW [130001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 130001
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 15 E BRADENTON 27.49N 82.33W
09/12/2007 MANATEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD STATE ROAD 70 AND VERNA BETHANY ROAD

0657 PM HAIL 3 S BRANDON 27.89N 82.29W
09/12/2007 E1.25 INCH HILLSBOROUGH FL PUBLIC

BLOOMINGDALE AVE, PEA SIZED HAIL BECOMING HALF DOLLAR
SIZED HAIL.

0655 PM HAIL 3 SW BRANDON 27.90N 82.33W
09/12/2007 E0.75 INCH HILLSBOROUGH FL PUBLIC

PROVIDENCE LAKES

0723 PM HAIL RIVERVIEW 27.87N 82.32W
09/12/2007 E0.50 INCH HILLSBOROUGH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZED HAIL IN RIVERVIEW.


&&

$$

DOUGHERTY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KCAE [122317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 122317
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
717 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W SUMTER 33.94N 80.48W
09/12/2007 SUMTER SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NUMEROUS SHEDS DAMAGED AND BLOWN ACROSS THE ROAD AT STATE
HIGHWAY 763. ONE RAILROAD CROSSING ARM ALSO BLOWN OVER
THE ROAD AT CANE SAVANNAH ROAD AND WEDGEFIELD ROAD.


&&

$$

FPW

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KJAX [122317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 122317
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
717 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
09/12/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

POWERLINES DOWN IN THE MAYPORT AREA. TIME ESTIMATED BY
DOPPLER RADAR.


&&

$$

ECZ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMLB [122244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 122244
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
644 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM LIGHTNING PONCE INLET 29.10N 80.93W
09/12/2007 VOLUSIA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 2 INJ *** TWO BOATERS ON THE HALIFAX RIVER ONE MILE
NORTH OF PONCE INLET WERE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND
TRANSPORTED TO MEDICAL CENTER. REPORT FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEWS 13.


&&

$$

JRC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KJAX [122236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 122236
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
636 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
09/12/2007 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL

ONE TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON MAYPORT NAVAL BASE, REPORTED BY
NAVY OBSERVER.


&&

$$

MZ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1959

ACUS11 KWNS 122225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122224
LAZ000-TXZ000-130000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122224Z - 130000Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATIONS ATTENDANT
TO APPROACHING T.S. HUMBERTO WILL BE MONITORED...AND TORNADO WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE BY 23Z AS NRN MOST TROPICAL
RAIN BAND ATTENDANT WITH T.S. HUMBERTO REACHES THE TX COAST. THIS
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE CENTER OF
HUMBERTO APPROACHES THE UPPER TX COAST.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE CENTER OF T.S. HUMBERTO APPROXIMATELY
45 S GLS...WITH THE OUTERMOST ATTENDANT RAINBAND ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE TX COAST...15 WSW
GLS TO OFFSHORE AT 35 ESE GLS. THE OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THIS BAND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TX COAST BY 23Z. THUS FAR...THERE
HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW LOW LEVEL ROTATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DISCRETE
OFFSHORE CELLS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALREADY
BECOME FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST PER
HGX WSR-88D VAD...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 20 KT AND 0-3 KM
SRH VALUES AOA 150 M2/S2.

.PETERS.. 09/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29009516 29389517 29729508 29929485 30039449 30079410
29959384 29579371 29319381 28679504

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KJAX [122202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 122202
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND GST MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
09/12/2007 M46 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS


&&

$$

ECZ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMLB [122144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 122144 CCA
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
542 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007...CORRECTED FOR TIME

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL ORLANDO 28.50N 81.37W
09/12/2007 E0.88 INCH ORANGE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL SIZE HAIL OBSERVED IN DOWNTOWN ORLANDO NEXT TO THE
ARENA ABOUT TWO BLOCKS FROM COLONIAL DRIVE. REPORTED BY
THE PUBLIC AND RELAYED FROM WESH CHANNEL 2 ORLANDO.


&&

$$

JRC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMLB [122142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 122142
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
542 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL ORLANDO 28.50N 81.37W
09/12/2007 E0.88 INCH ORANGE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL SIZE HAIL OBSERVED IN DOWNTONW ORLANDO NEXT TO THE
ARENA ABOUT TWO BLOCKS FROM COLONIAL DRIVE. REPORTED BY
THE PUBLIC AND RELAYED FROM WESH CHANNEL 2 ORLANDO.

0518 PM HAIL ORLANDO 28.50N 81.37W
09/12/2007 E0.88 INCH ORANGE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL SIZE HAIL OBSERVED IN DOWNTOWN ORLANDO NEXT TO THE
ARENA ABOUT TWO BLOCKS FROM COLONIAL DRIVE. REPORTED BY
THE PUBLIC AND RELAYED FROM WESH CHANNEL 2 ORLANDO.


&&

$$

JRC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMLB [122107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 122107
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
507 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL ORLANDO 28.50N 81.37W
09/12/2007 M0.70 INCH ORANGE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

JRC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 122001
SWODY1
SPC AC 121959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN LA...

..SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND HAS BEEN UPGRADED BY THE NHC TO TROPICAL STORM
HUMBERTO. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTH AND
NNEWD DIRECTION INTO SERN TX TONIGHT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM
NHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS ALONG THE TX COAST
NEWD INTO SRN LA. THE POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS
EAST AND NE OF CIRCULATION CENTER LATER THIS EVENING AS STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY.


..ERN NM THROUGH THE WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES...

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL THROUGH NRN
NM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EWD INTO PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT MAX MOVING ESEWD THROUGH
SRN CO. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST FROM MUCH OF NM NEWD
INTO PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. AXIS OF 500 TO 1000 MLCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE
ADVECTED NWD BENEATH ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. BELT OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER FLOW ATTENDING SEWD MOVING VORT MAX HAS
SPREAD OVER NM...BUT 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AOB 30 KT ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DIAL.. 09/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KILM [121946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 121946
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FUNNEL CLOUD WILMINGTON 34.21N 77.91W
09/12/2007 NEW HANOVER NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN NET CONTROLLER FOR WFO ILM REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD OVER THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT THE STATE PORT IN
WILMINGTON. THE FUNNEL DISSIPATED BY 338 PM EDT.


&&

$$

PFAFF

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KCHS [121928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 121928
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0313 PM HAIL 1 W RIDGEVILLE 33.10N 80.33W
09/12/2007 E0.88 INCH DORCHESTER SC CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

VB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1958

ACUS11 KWNS 121926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121926
LAZ000-TXZ000-122100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND SCNTRL LA/SE TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 121926Z - 122100Z

AS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO MOVE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX AND SW
LA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
SE TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND RADAR DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM SHOW
INCREASING ORGANIZATION. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE IN
THE LOWER 70S F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LOCALLY EXCEED 2.25 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE TX AND SW
LA. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM
HUMBERTO. A TRAINING EFFECT APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SW AND SCNTRL
LA WHERE RAINBANDS ARE ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND CELL
MOTIONS TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS.

.BROYLES.. 09/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

29989267 29789349 29679405 29639449 29829493 30519507
31009440 31379315 31419221 31189178 30749153 30369161
30099194

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMLB [121837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 121837
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
236 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FORT PIERCE 27.44N 80.32W
09/12/2007 ST. LUCIE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

DLJ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121732
SWODY2
SPC AC 121730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL AMPLIFY
SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL VORT MAX WILL EJECT NE THROUGH BASE
OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE
SECONDARY IMPULSE ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SEWD THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. SWRN EXTENTION OF
FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY AND INTO THE
SRN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NWRN GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD
BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NEWD INTO THE SWRN GULF COASTAL
STATES. SEE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..WI AND IA...

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 65-70F DEWPOINTS IS CONFINED TO THE
GULF COASTAL REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS FARTHER NWD INTO
OK AND AR. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED CP AIR NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH
AS IA AND WI BY LATE DAY THURSDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
EWD OVER THE MODEST MOIST AXIS AND RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A CAPPING INVERSION BY AFTERNOON. SWLY FLOW IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF WI SWWD
THROUGH IA LATE AFTERNOON WHERE DEEP ASCENT WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR INITIATION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS LIKELIHOOD OF VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EVALUATED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

..CNTRL PLAINS REGION...

LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BENEATH PLUME OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
FARTHER NORTH WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF KS. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE S OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...AND PHASING BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
SRN CO AND SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLY TIMED.
THIS LEAVES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN
THIS AREA. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH KS DURING PEAK HEATING. THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..LS AND MS...

THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST OVER PARTS OF LA AND MS AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ATTENDING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVE INLAND AND INTERACT WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE GULF COAST.

.DIAL.. 09/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KBUF [121622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 121622
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1222 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM TSTM WND DMG CROGHAN 43.90N 75.39W
09/12/2007 LEWIS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN


&&

$$

MPUKAJLO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121545
SWODY1
SPC AC 121543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN TIER THIS PERIOD AS
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE GRT LKS YESTERDAY CONTINUES NE TO LABRADOR
AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CANADIAN RCKYS AMPLIFIES SE
INTO ND/MB. FARTHER S...VORT MAX NOW OVER SW CO AS NOTED ON W/V
IMAGERY...SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY SE INTO NRN NM LATER TODAY...AND INTO W
TX TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS E FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN MN/WRN
SWRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SW
FROM LOW WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. IN THE NWRN
GULF...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT ON THE UPPER TX
COAST.

..SRN HI PLNS...
LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED WLY FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF AMPLIFYING CANADIAN
UPR IMPULSE. A DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY INCREASING TO 500-1000
J/KG OVER ERN NM AND SE CO. SFC HEATING AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
CO UPR VORT SHOULD FOSTER TERRAIN-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CNTRL NM BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS
FORMING A BIT LATER ALONG LEE TROUGH.

BELT OF 20-25 KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF CO VORT WILL
ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION...BUT DEEP SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LYR...SIZABLE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME CLUSTERING OF
ACTIVITY...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
AND/OR BRIEFLY SVR WIND GUSTS E INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE. ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE LWR LVLS
COOL AFTER DARK.

..MIDDLE/UPR TX GULF CST...
APPROACH OF TD 9 WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LVL SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN VERY RICH MOIST ENVIRONMENT...SETUP COULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOW LVL STORM ROTATION. WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO STRONGLY INTENSIFY...OVERALL WIND FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND ANY TORNADO THREAT POSED SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF
AND ISOLATED.

.HALES/BROYLES.. 09/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121233
SWODY1
SPC AC 121231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN TIER THIS PERIOD AS
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE GRT LKS YESTERDAY CONTINUES NE TO LABRADOR
AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CANADIAN RCKYS AMPLIFIES SE
INTO ND/MB. FARTHER S...VORT MAX NOW OVER SW CO SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY
SE INTO NRN NM LATER TODAY...AND INTO W TX TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS E FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN MN/WRN
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM LOW
WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE WARM FRONT EVOLVES AND
LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. IN THE NWRN GULF...WEAK
TROPICAL LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE A BIT FARTHER W AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY BEFORE LIFTING MORE N TOWARD THE PSX OR HOU/GLS AREA EARLY
THURSDAY.

..SRN HI PLNS...
LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED WLY FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF AMPLIFYING CANADIAN
UPR IMPULSE. A DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY INCREASING TO 500-1000
J/KG OVER ERN NM AND SE CO. SFC HEATING AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
CO UPR VORT SHOULD FOSTER TERRAIN-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CNTRL NM BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS
FORMING A BIT LATER ALONG LEE TROUGH.

BELT OF 20-25 KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF CO VORT WILL
ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION...BUT DEEP SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LYR...SIZABLE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME CLUSTERING OF
ACTIVITY...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
AND/OR BRIEFLY SVR WIND GUSTS E INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE. ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE LWR LVLS
COOL AFTER DARK.

..MIDDLE/UPR TX GULF CST...
APPROACH OF NWRN GULF TROPICAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX
GULF CST TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, GIVEN VERY RICH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...SETUP COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE
OR SEMI-DISCRETE SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOW LVL STORM ROTATION.
WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO STRONGLY INTENSIFY...OVERALL
WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND ANY TORNADO THREAT POSED SHOULD
REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

.CORFIDI/GUYER.. 09/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KMFL [121220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 121220
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 AM WATER SPOUT 6 E FORT LAUDERDALE 26.12N 80.05W
09/12/2007 AMZ651 FL PUBLIC

THE AIRCRAFT CONTROL TOWER AT FORT LAUDERDALE REPORTED A
WATERSPOUT AROUND 6 MILES EAST OF THE AIRPORT.


&&

$$

TINGLER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1957

ACUS11 KWNS 121152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121151
LAZ000-TXZ000-121445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS SE TX...EXTREME SWRN LA.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 121151Z - 121445Z

CLUSTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND TO
MOVE ONSHORE PRIMARILY FROM MATAGORDA COUNTY TX THROUGH CAMERON
PARISH LA THROUGH MIDMORNING. RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD
OCCUR...LOCALLY APCHG 3 INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIEST CORES.

SFC ANALYSIS AND COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST E OF BUOY 42019...MOVING
SLOWLY/ERRATICALLY ATTM. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING
GRADUALLY DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS FROM COASTLINE SWD OVER GULF...IN
NERN QUADRANT OF ASSOCIATED LOW-MIDLEVEL CYCLONE. TWO
CONFLUENT/CONVERGENT AREAS ARE INDICATED --
1. AREA OF PRONOUNCED SFC SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG COASTLINE
CORRESPONDING TO SFC TROUGH AND ROUGHLY 90 DEG SELY-NELY
WINDSHIFT...AND ALSO...
2. SSE-NNW ALIGNED BAND OF STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE CORRESPONDING TO
BUILDING/BKN CONVECTIVE BAND WITH NORTHERN TERMINUS OVER BPT
AREA...WHERE IT INTERSECTS COASTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS.

AREA OF INTERSECTING CONVERGENCE AXES INVOF BPT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORED LOCALE FOR MOST PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING/MERGING
ACTIVITY...MIXTURE OF WARM CLOUD AND DEEPER/TSTM PROCESSES WILL
PERSIST ALONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SWWD PAST GLS/FREEPORT AREAS.
VERY RICH PW -- AROUND 2.25 INCHES PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE
RAOBS...WITH GPS PW DATA UNAVAILABLE ATTM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG OVER GULF COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS
ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH...IN SUPPORT OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN CONVERGENCE ZONES.

.EDWARDS.. 09/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

28699575 29289571 29799538 30399394 30159307 29769285
29649384 29679406 29399468 29309474 29059511

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KBTV [121151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBTV 121151
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG FINE 44.25N 75.13W
09/11/2007 ST. LAWRENCE NY POST OFFICE

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 3.

0340 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FINE 44.25N 75.13W
09/11/2007 ST. LAWRENCE NY POST OFFICE

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED SOUTH OF FINE AT 340 PM.

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG MORRISONVILLE 44.69N 73.55W
09/11/2007 CLINTON NY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED ALONG WITH TREE AND MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDDLEBURY 44.01N 73.16W
09/11/2007 ADDISON VT UTILITY COMPANY

FEW TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG RUTLAND 43.61N 72.98W
09/11/2007 RUTLAND VT UTILITY COMPANY

FEW TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG SHREWSBURY 43.52N 72.87W
09/11/2007 RUTLAND VT LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEW TREES DOWN


&&

$$

JOHNG

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120848
SWOD48
SPC AC 120847

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

..DISCUSSION...
LONG-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIME...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW MORE SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DAYS
4-5 /SAT. SEPT. 15 TO SUN. SEPT. 16/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH RIDGING
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...LITTLE APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS EVIDENT.

MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN/SHIFT EWD DAYS
6-7...WITH MORE ACTIVE WSWLY FLOW SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS. THOUGH
THIS -- AND SOME LIKELIHOOD NOW EVIDENT IN THE MODELS FOR GULF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS -- WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW INCREASE IN
RELATIVE SEVERE THREAT BEGINNING DAY 6...RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITHIN THE LONG-RANGE MODELS RENDERS OUTLINING
A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA -- BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY -- DIFFICULT
AT THIS TIME.

.GOSS.. 09/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120733
SWODY3
SPC AC 120732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/GULF COAST STATES
AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

..WRN NY/WRN PA/ERN OH/WV...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING YIELDS MARGINAL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL W OF
THE FRONT...MODERATE /20 TO 40 KT/ ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ATOP THE BOUNDARY.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS -- POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A
LINE ALONG THE FRONT -- WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS. WHILE QUESTIONS REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
EXIST ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA ACROSS THIS
REGION.

.GOSS.. 09/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120719
SWODY2
SPC AC 120717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE/N CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EWD
WITH TIME...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
CONUS. IN CONJUNCTION...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CONUS...AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NRN OK BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
LIMITED DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING
FRONT...AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F/ SPREADS
NWD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. GREATEST INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM IA/NRN MO WSWWD ACROSS
KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND UVV INVOF THE FRONT
MAY LOCALLY WEAKEN THE CAP -- RESULTING IN ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE CONFINED TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY -- PARTICULARLY INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS -- AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE N OF THE FRONT.

IN ANY CASE...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INVOF THE FRONT. THUS -- COMBINATION OF ISOLATED STORMS AND
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 09/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120552
SWODY1
SPC AC 120550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER OF STATES AS NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM /NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/
INTENSIFIES WHILE EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN/
MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...LOWER LATITUDE VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER UT WILL
TRANSLATE SEWD THROUGH CO/NM TODAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN MN/WRN
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. TRAILING...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY TODAY OVER
THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
THROUGH CO/NM WILL FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INITIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS EVENTUALLY FORMING ALONG LEE TROUGH.

A BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEWD INTO REGION. WHILE INCREASING...
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS
OF 20-25 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ANY EXISTING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES.

.MEAD/GUYER.. 09/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KBUF [120441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBUF 120441
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1241 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W
09/11/2007 M64.00 MPH ERIE NY MESONET

CHARTER SCH FOR APP. TECH

0905 PM TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W
09/11/2007 M57.00 MPH ERIE NY MESONET

WIVB

0905 PM TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W
09/11/2007 M60.00 MPH ERIE NY PUBLIC

CORNER OF AMHERST AND ELMWOOD

0915 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARENCE 42.98N 78.59W
09/11/2007 ERIE NY NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE LIMB DOWN

0917 PM TSTM WND DMG SANBORN 43.13N 78.88W
09/11/2007 NIAGARA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOUSES DAMAGED, NUMEROUS TREES, LIMBS, WIRES, SIGNS DOWN
ACROSS WESTERN PART OF COUNTY.

0923 PM TSTM WND DMG TONAWANDA 42.98N 78.88W
09/11/2007 ERIE NY NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE LIMB DOWN

0946 PM TSTM WND DMG BATAVIA 43.00N 78.18W
09/11/2007 GENESEE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIMB DOWN

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG WARSAW 42.74N 78.14W
09/11/2007 WYOMING NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG SHELDON CENTER 42.74N 78.39W
09/11/2007 WYOMING NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE FELL ON HOME

1015 PM TSTM WND DMG MENDON 43.00N 77.50W
09/11/2007 MONROE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES ON HOMES, TREES, LIMBS WIRES DOWN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTION OF COUNTY, INCLUDING SPENCERPORT AND GREECE.

1015 PM TSTM WND DMG GENESEO 42.80N 77.81W
09/11/2007 LIVINGSTON NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY

1033 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N CANANDAIGUA 42.90N 77.28W
09/11/2007 ONTARIO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROUTE 8

1043 PM TSTM WND DMG GENEVA 42.87N 76.98W
09/11/2007 ONTARIO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIRES DOWN

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG VOLNEY 43.34N 76.36W
09/11/2007 OSWEGO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

1140 PM TSTM WND DMG SANDY CREEK 43.64N 76.09W
09/11/2007 OSWEGO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN


&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KBUF [120424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120424
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1224 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG VOLNEY 43.34N 76.36W
09/11/2007 OSWEGO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

1140 PM TSTM WND DMG SANDY CREEK 43.64N 76.09W
09/11/2007 OSWEGO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN


&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.

KBUF [120417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120417
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1217 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM TSTM WND DMG GENESEO 42.80N 77.81W
09/11/2007 LIVINGSTON NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY


&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information see
http://wxlist.5280tech.com or write chris@lib.siu.edu.