KTFX [190323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 190323
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
922 PM MDT THU MAR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0921 PM SNOW NEIHART 46.93N 110.74W
03/18/2010 E3.0 INCH CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0921 PM SNOW RAYNESFORD 47.27N 110.73W
03/18/2010 E2.0 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

JSUK

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KCYS [190159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 190159
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
758 PM MDT THU MAR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW 3 N BATTLE MOUNTAIN 41.10N 107.26W
03/18/2010 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOW TELL SITE.

0500 PM SNOW N BATTLE MOUNTAIN 41.05N 107.27W
03/18/2010 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE

0500 PM SNOW 4 E BATTLE LAKE 41.16N 106.93W
03/18/2010 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE

0500 PM SNOW 1 SSE RYAN PARK 41.30N 106.50W
03/18/2010 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL SITE

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KMPX [190152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 190152
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
852 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM FLOOD LITTLE FALLS 45.98N 94.36W
03/18/2010 MORRISON MN EMERGENCY MNGR

US HIGHWAY 10 BRIDGE APPRAOCH PANEL FELL INTO THE RIVER
DUE TO SCOURING THAT OCCURRED AS A RESULT OF AN ICE JAM.

0630 PM FLOOD 3 NW JORDAN 44.70N 93.68W
03/18/2010 CARVER MN EMERGENCY MNGR

JONATHON CARVER PARKWAY /OLD CTY RD 45/ NEAR COUNTY RD 9
IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

$$

LS

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KRIW [190150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 190150
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
750 PM MDT THU MAR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM SNOW PAVILLION 43.24N 108.69W
03/18/2010 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0718 PM SNOW CASPER AIRPORT 42.88N 106.42W
03/18/2010 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0720 PM SNOW LANDER 3SW 42.79N 108.76W
03/18/2010 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0720 PM SNOW FORT WASHAKIE 43.00N 108.88W
03/18/2010 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0721 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER 43.03N 106.98W
03/18/2010 M0.80 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0722 PM SNOW CROWHEART 43.30N 109.19W
03/18/2010 M1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0722 PM SNOW LANDER 10 S 42.69N 108.68W
03/18/2010 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

RED CANYON

0723 PM SNOW LANDER 1 S 42.80N 108.72W
03/18/2010 M2.50 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

LANDER AIRPORT

0724 PM SNOW SWEETWATER STATION 2E 42.53N 108.17W
03/18/2010 M0.50 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0737 PM SNOW DUBOIS 11 N 43.70N 109.67W
03/18/2010 E5.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL

0737 PM SNOW CODY 18 SW 44.30N 109.24W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

MARQUETTE SNOTEL

0737 PM SNOW PAHASKA 16 N 44.73N 109.91W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

PARKER PEAK SNOTEL

0738 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 18 WSW 44.03N 109.18W
03/18/2010 E4.50 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL

0738 PM SNOW SHELL 14 NE 44.68N 107.58W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL

0738 PM SNOW BUFFALO 24 SW 44.16N 107.13W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL

0738 PM SNOW MAYOWORTH 14 WNW 43.89N 107.06W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL

0738 PM SNOW BUFFALO 17 W 44.40N 107.06W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL

0738 PM SNOW BARNUM 21 SW 43.47N 107.24W
03/18/2010 E2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

GRAVE SPRING SNOTEL

0738 PM SNOW BUFFALO 14 WSW 44.26N 106.98W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

HANSEN SAWMILL SNOTEL

0739 PM SNOW DUBOIS 25 NW 43.75N 110.06W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL

0739 PM SNOW CROWHEART 14 W 43.28N 109.45W
03/18/2010 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

0739 PM SNOW LANDER 19 SSW 42.59N 108.90W
03/18/2010 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

0739 PM SNOW LANDER 18 W 42.87N 109.09W
03/18/2010 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

0739 PM SNOW ATLANTIC CITY 7 NW 42.57N 108.84W
03/18/2010 E2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

0740 PM SNOW LANDER 26 NW 43.03N 109.17W
03/18/2010 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

0740 PM SNOW LANDER 12 SW 42.70N 108.90W
03/18/2010 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL

&&

$$

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KVEF [190146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 190146
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
645 PM PDT THU MAR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACHEL 37.63N 115.72W
03/18/2010 M45.00 MPH LINCOLN NV MESONET

0355 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BISHOP 37.37N 118.40W
03/18/2010 M43.00 MPH INYO CA ASOS

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MEDLINS RANCH 37.40N 115.54W
03/18/2010 M46.00 MPH LINCOLN NV MESONET

0512 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DESERT ROCK AIRPORT 36.62N 116.03W
03/18/2010 M52.00 MPH NYE NV ASOS

0542 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OAK CREEK RAWS 36.84N 118.26W
03/18/2010 M42.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AREA 5 NORTH (NTS A13) 36.86N 115.96W
03/18/2010 M62 MPH NYE NV MESONET

0624 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NORTH LAS VEGAS 36.27N 115.14W
03/18/2010 M54 MPH CLARK NV ASOS

&&

$$

SC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190052
SWODY1
SPC AC 190051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY AS SERN CONUS
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND MOVES EWD OFFSHORE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND
HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS MUCH OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
-- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN CORNER BC AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS MT/AB -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS
NRN ROCKIES TO NERN UT AND SWRN WY BY END OF PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE AFFECTING
S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND...SEE DAY-2 AND DAY-3 OUTLOOKS.
INITIALLY SEPARATE PERTURBATION OVER CENTRAL/SWRN NV IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SSEWD TO SERN CA AND NRN BAJA. BROAD ZONE OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL/SRN GREAT PLAINS.

IN LOW LEVELS...EXPECT CONTINUED LEE-SIDE TROUGHING FROM NRN MEX NWD
TO INTERSECTION WITH CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT. RELATED
PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT STG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN...HOWEVER...WILL BE
LIMITED BY UNFAVORABLY LOW-THETAE TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM
CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE...WITH MINIMAL TO NO RESIDENCE TIME OVER
GULF. FARTHER W...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
REMAINDER SRN AND ERN GREAT BASIN REGION....AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID-UPPER PERTURBATIONS.

AT SFC...SLOWLY DEPARTING CYCLONE OFFSHORE NC...AND BROAD AREA OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT -- WILL
KEEP AIR MASS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF CONUS E OF
ROCKIES.

...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING...DIABATIC HEATING OF NEAR-FRONTAL AND
PREFRONTAL LAND SFC...STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP FRONTAL PROCESS...AND
MRGL MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SPORADIC/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NV AND SWRN UT. THIS REGIME MAY YIELD EPISODIC
THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BUOYANCY BECOMES TOO WEAK FOR
10% UNCONDITIONAL THUNDER COVERAGE PROBABILITIES.

MORE DOUBTFUL IS OVERNIGHT TSTM THREAT FARTHER E ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS. ROUGHLY HALF OF SREF MEMBERS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THIS REGION BY 12Z. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
-- EVEN THIS CLOSE TEMPORALLY -- ARE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM ONE
ANOTHER AT THE SAME VALID TIMES REGARDING PRESENCE OR LACK OF
ELEVATED CAPE. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENT PROGS...AND DRYNESS/LOW
THETAE OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS EVIDENT UPSTREAM...PRIND THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO MAINTAIN OUTLOOK E OF
MOUNTAINS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2010

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KBOI [190045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 190045
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
645 PM MDT THU MAR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 WSW HAGERMAN 42.69N 115.20W
03/18/2010 M43.00 MPH OWYHEE ID MESONET

TWIN BUTTES RAWS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 43 MPH.

1252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MOUNTAIN HOME AFB 43.03N 115.87W
03/18/2010 M41.00 MPH ELMORE ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 41 MPH.

0155 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NW MOUNTAIN HOME AFB 43.05N 115.87W
03/18/2010 M40.00 MPH ELMORE ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

&&

$$

JSMITH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181949
SWODY1
SPC AC 181948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK IS TO ADD A THUNDER LINE IN ERN
NC WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
ERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 03/18/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE SOURCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A SFC
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER E TX THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NW...THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM NV
INTO CO...AS WELL AS ACROSS SW NEB INTO NWRN KS LATE.

...SRN NV INTO SWRN WY/WRN CO...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROCEED SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN NV TO THE WY/CO
BORDER BY 21Z. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG. WHILE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION.

...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS OVERNIGHT...
DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND COOLING ALOFT
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER SWRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG
MUCAPE DEVELOPING...ROOTED AROUND 700 MB. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SNOW OR ICE PELLETS
MAY RESULT.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181744
SWODY2
SPC AC 181743

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE SRN PLAINS
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTH TX SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS BE
IN THE LOWER 50S F WITH LOWER-END MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT IN WRN OK
AND NW TX BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO A LINE
MOVING SEWD TOWARD DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND SWD INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTH TX
AND SW OK EARLY FRIDAY EVENING SHOW IMPRESSIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE
OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
FOR THIS REASON...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE...A CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX DURING THE LATE EVENING
SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME
FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 03/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181542
SWODY1
SPC AC 181541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE SOURCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A SFC
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER E TX THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NW...THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM NV
INTO CO...AS WELL AS ACROSS SW NEB INTO NWRN KS LATE.

...SRN NV INTO SWRN WY/WRN CO...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROCEED SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN NV TO THE WY/CO
BORDER BY 21Z. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG. WHILE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION.

...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS OVERNIGHT...
DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND COOLING ALOFT
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER SWRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG
MUCAPE DEVELOPING...ROOTED AROUND 700 MB. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SNOW OR ICE PELLETS
MAY RESULT.

..JEWELL.. 03/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181220
SWODY1
SPC AC 181219

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE E INTO ONTARIO BY
12Z/FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAILS SW FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN...AND WILL MOVE
SWD TOWARD AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND TROUGH DIGGING S
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...A S/W TROUGH EXITING LA /WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT/ IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS FL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE.

...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY COOL DURING THE DAY
AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES SE OUT OF BC AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE ONSET
OF AFTERNOON HEATING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TOWARD MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FAVORED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF A STABILIZING SURFACE
AIRMASS.

...SW NEB AND EXTREME NW KS...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE S INTO KS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SLOPING NWD WITH HEIGHT BACK INTO NEB. DEFORMATION
ALONG THE ASSOCIATED HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TOWARD STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH.
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER COMBINED WITH SATURATING
AIRMASS ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE /ROOTED NEAR 700 MB/...AND MAY FAVOR ELEVATED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES
WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE.

..GARNER/EVANS.. 03/18/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180842
SWOD48
SPC AC 180842

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
ALABAMA/GEORGIA AND FLORIDA SUNDAY...PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTS OUT
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
BUT THE LACK OF A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...AND ITS
IMPACT ON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... REMAINS A CONCERN AS A
POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LARGE TO
REASONABLY OUTLOOK A SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE RETURN
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO PROBABLY WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER
FLOW REGIME BECOMES QUITE LARGE BY THAT TIME.

..KERR.. 03/18/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180726
SWODY3
SPC AC 180725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FROM
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LWR MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF STATES....

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED PACIFIC COAST RIDGE WILL BE
FLATTENED AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
BEGINS TO MIGRATE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG
DIGGING DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES INTO A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES...INTENSIFIES SUBSTANTIALLY AND CONTRIBUTES TO
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...PARTS OF LWR MS VALLEY AND WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR INCREASINGLY SIMILAR CONCERNING
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH...VARIABILITY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
ITS TRACK AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. WHILE THESE DIFFERENCES MAY NOT BE
EXTREME...THEY MAY STILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO HAVE A CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE PROBABLE
ABSENCE OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
MODIFICATION...BUT INLAND MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED TO
MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS AT BEST. STILL...GIVEN THE COLD
NATURE OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM...THE STRONG FORCING...AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SEEM TO EXISTS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO
TREND TOWARD THE CURRENT SLOWER/MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF...SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 03/18/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180504
SWODY2
SPC AC 180504

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND ANOTHER DIGGING OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...COULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS AMPLIFIED
REGIME WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AND A STRONG DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO
DIG SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE THE
ROCKIES...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ONE OR
MORE SURFACE FRONTAL WAVES.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING A BIT WEAKER WITH THE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY. BUT...A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF RECENT DRYING...SUBSTANTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. WHILE THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THIS
MAY PROCEED A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...IT STILL
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL NOT ADVECT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING... BENEATH
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IS STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF WEAK CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT
STILL LAGGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
FRONTAL FORCING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF STORMS
PRIOR TO 20/00Z. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST SHEAR...MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN...AS SIZABLE
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ENHANCE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN AN EVOLVING NARROW SQUALL
LINE. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS CONVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL SEEMS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITHIN A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FINALLY BEGINS
TO SURGE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE ON THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. INCREASING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180449
SWODY1
SPC AC 180448

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS TODAY...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY FROM THE CO RIVER
VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR BENEATH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FROM SRN NV EWD INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER E...A DEEPENING COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL FORCING
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN NEB.

...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT BASIN AND INTO WY/CO ALONG A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH HEATING WILL
RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL...LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20 KT. THUS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

...SW NEB/NW KS...
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND 700 MB IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ABOVE A DEEPENING COLD
FRONT. ALOFT...HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING WILL CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH DIGS
SEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AS WELL AS THE GFS SUGGEST AT
LEAST 100 J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH UPWARD MID LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTION. THUS...AN ELEVATED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

..JEWELL.. 03/18/2010

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