Friday, March 4, 2011

KLSX [042144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042144
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL CENTRALIA 39.21N 92.13W
03/04/2011 E1.00 INCH BOONE MO 911 CALL CENTER

ON HWY 124 JUST SOUTH OF TOWN


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042144
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM HAIL 1 E JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.17W
03/04/2011 E1.00 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BYRD

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KLSX [042144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042144
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM HAIL JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
03/04/2011 E0.75 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ON THE EASTERN END OF JEFFERSON
CITY.


&&

$$

BRITT

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KLSX [042143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042143
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW JEFFERSON CITY 38.54N 92.23W
03/04/2011 M52 MPH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING HAIL AND WND GUST...0.60 OF
RAIN IN 10 MINUTES.


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042142
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0341 PM HAIL 1 E JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.17W
03/04/2011 E0.88 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BYRD

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KLSX [042142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042142
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0341 PM HAIL JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
03/04/2011 M0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

DYE

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KMQT [042142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 042142
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 5 NW STEPHENSON 45.47N 87.68W
03/04/2011 M2.0 INCH MENOMINEE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT. 0.20 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KLSX [042142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042142
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0341 PM HAIL 7 S JEFFERSON CITY 38.47N 92.19W
03/04/2011 E0.88 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING GROUND.


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042139
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0338 PM HAIL JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
03/04/2011 M0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

DYE

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KLSX [042139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042139
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
03/04/2011 E0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL AND PONDING OF WATER 3 INCH DEEP

0335 PM HEAVY RAIN JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
03/04/2011 U0.00 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL AND PONDING OF WATER 3 INCH DEEP


&&

$$

BRITT

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KLSX [042138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042138
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
03/04/2011 M0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DYE

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KLSX [042137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042137
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW ASHLAND 38.76N 92.27W
03/04/2011 BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SHINGLES BLOWN OFF HOUSE AND INTO TREES...ALSO PEA
SIZED HAIL


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042137
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM HAIL W JEFFERSON CITY 38.57N 92.19W
03/04/2011 M0.25 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING AND ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS.


&&

$$

DYE

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KLSX [042133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042133
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL RUSSELLVILLE 38.51N 92.44W
03/04/2011 E0.88 INCH COLE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

COVERING THE GROUND


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042128
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
328 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL PARIS 39.48N 92.00W
03/04/2011 E0.25 INCH MONROE MO AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

MILLER

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KMEG [042124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 042124
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0111 PM HAIL 3 N GERMANTOWN 35.13N 89.79W
03/04/2011 E0.75 INCH SHELBY TN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PENNY SIZED HAIL AT DEXTER ROAD AND CHIMNEYROCK. ALSO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED WITH 0.5-0.74 INCHES TOTAL.


&&

$$

CCD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0184

ACUS11 KWNS 042123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042122
ILZ000-MOZ000-042245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO W CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...

VALID 042122Z - 042245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36
CONTINUES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN ST. LOUIS METRO AREA...INCLUDING ST.
LOUIS CITY...MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WW 36. PARTS OF W CNTRL/CNTRL
IL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL
WW.

A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY A 50 KT
500 SPEED MAXIMUM...WHICH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL
PROPAGATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...AND THE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
AND MODESTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MAY YIELD INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR EAST OF COLUMBIA INTO THE ST. LOUIS
AREA BY 00-01Z.

..KERR.. 03/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38299279 38909249 39279145 39859067 40159006 39848915
38749004 38289089 37949196 37979268 38299279

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KGJT [042120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 042120
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
220 PM MST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW CRESTED BUTTE 38.87N 106.98W
03/04/2011 M3.0 INCH GUNNISON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR SNOWFALL... WATER EQUIV 0.25 INCHES


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100212

$$

DC

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KGJT [042118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 042118
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
218 PM MST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0854 AM SNOW 4 NNE CRAWFORD 38.76N 107.58W
03/04/2011 M3.5 INCH DELTA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR SNOWFALL... WATER EQUIV 0.63 INCHES


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100211

$$

DC

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KLSX [042117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042117
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0316 PM HAIL HALLSVILLE 39.12N 92.22W
03/04/2011 M1.75 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DYE

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KLSX [042116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLSX 042116
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL CALIFORNIA 38.63N 92.57W
03/04/2011 E0.25 INCH MONITEAU MO EMERGENCY MNGR

ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN


&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042116
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0313 PM WALL CLOUD COLUMBIA 38.95N 92.33W
03/04/2011 BOONE MO 911 CALL CENTER

COLUMBIA PD REPORTS WALL CLOUD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
TOWN


&&

$$

MILLER

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KGJT [042115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 042115
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
215 PM MST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0719 AM SNOW OURAY 38.03N 107.67W
03/04/2011 M4.8 INCH OURAY CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR SNOWFALL... WATER EQUIV 0.26 INCHES


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100210

$$

DC

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KJAX [042114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 042114
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
414 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM WILDFIRE 5 WSW CRESCENT BEACH 29.69N 81.31W
03/04/2011 ST. JOHNS FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

KELLER WILDFIRE UPDATE FROM THE FLORIDA DIVISION OF
FORESTRY. SIZE OF FIRE AT 1134 ACRES AND IS 80 PERCENT
CONTAINED.


&&

$$

JHESS

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KLSX [042113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042113
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL CALEDONIA 37.76N 90.77W
03/04/2011 E0.25 INCH WASHINGTON MO EMERGENCY MNGR

ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLOT [042113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 042113
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
313 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HAIL CRYSTAL LAKE 42.23N 88.33W
03/04/2011 M0.25 INCH MCHENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR ROUTE 176 AND US HIGHWAY 31.


&&

$$

RATZER

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KLSX [042111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042111
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0306 PM HAIL 12 N COLUMBIA 39.13N 92.33W
03/04/2011 E0.70 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

COVERING THE GROUND...HAIL STILL FALLING


&&

$$

MILLER

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KGJT [042110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 042110
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
210 PM MST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW GOTHIC 38.96N 106.99W
03/04/2011 M7.5 INCH GUNNISON CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24HR SNOWFALL... WATER EQUIV 0.48 INCHES


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100209

$$

DC

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KLSX [042109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042109
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 PM HAIL COLUMBIA 38.95N 92.33W
03/04/2011 E0.50 INCH BOONE MO 911 CALL CENTER

HWY 63 N NEAR PEABODY ROAD...REPORTED BY A SHERRIFFS
DEPUTY


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042109
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
308 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM HAIL 10 NW COLUMBIA 39.06N 92.46W
03/04/2011 M0.50 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DYE

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KLSX [042107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042107
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
307 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0302 PM HAIL 10 NNW COLUMBIA 39.09N 92.40W
03/04/2011 E0.50 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

COVERING THE GROUND


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042105
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
305 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0301 PM HAIL ROCHEPORT 38.98N 92.56W
03/04/2011 E0.50 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

LASTED FOR 30 SECONDS


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042102
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
302 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 4 NNE MIDWAY 39.03N 92.41W
03/04/2011 M0.25 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BYRD

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KLSX [042056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042056
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
256 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0254 PM HAIL 6 SE HARRISBURG 39.08N 92.38W
03/04/2011 E0.25 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL DEEP ENOUGH TO COVER THE DECK


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [042046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 042046
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
246 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL ROCHEPORT 38.98N 92.56W
03/04/2011 E0.70 INCH BOONE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

BYRD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041957
SWODY1
SPC AC 041955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK/MO/NWRN AR AND
VICINITY...

...ERN OK/MO/NWRN AR AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PRIMARILY WRN MO...ALONG NWRN FRINGES OF THE AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE SHEAR -- BEING PROVIDED BY
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING INTO WRN MO FROM ERN KS -- WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE SSWWD INTO ERN OK WITH TIME...WITH
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ENEWD THROUGH EVENING.

WHILE LIMITED CAPE REMAINS AN ISSUE WITH RESPECT TO ROBUST
CONVECTION/MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS...AMPLE INSTABILITY EXISTS
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE CELLS. SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NWD THIS FORECAST...WITH HEATING ALLOWING CAPE TO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST INTO CENTRAL MO.
OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR SOME HAIL - AND PERHAPS ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS -- CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 03/04/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011/

..SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH APPROACHING PLAINS WITH LEAD S/WV NOW WRN KS FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY VORT MAX VICINITY 4 CORNERS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT FROM
NRN MO SWWD INTO SWRN OK PUSHES SEWD TO NEAR A STL-SGF-SPS LINE BY
00Z.

AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5C/KM CURRENTLY
SPREADING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CAP MUCH OF WARM SECTOR
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL PROVIDE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE STORMS CAN INITIATE. LIMITING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE BOTH THE LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF...LESS THAN 1 INCH PWAT...AND MODEST
ASCENT WITH BOTH UPPER TROUGHS.


...SERN KS/WRN MO...
COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH LEAD S/WV MOVING EWD ACROSS KS AND LIFT
PROVIDED ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SERN KS INTO
MO. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE WILL BE LIMITED...GENERALLY MUCH LESS THAN 1000
J/KG...THE COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH FORCED
ASCENT ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LARGE HAIL ON
COLD SIDE OF FRONT WITH EVENTUALLY A LOW THREAT OF SUPERCELL/WIND
DAMAGE BY THIS EVENING SRN MO NEARER THE FRONT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES AND SFC CINH WEAKENS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

...OK/TX/AR/SRN MO...
BY TONIGHT...THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND
MOVE ESEWD INTO TX AND SRN OK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOW TO EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALSO...CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP
TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SWRN MO
INTO EASTERN OK. WHILE THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH...THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8C/KM... AND 35-45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE IN LINES AND CLUSTERS.

LATE TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EAST TX. A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF HAIL CURRENTLY FORECAST.

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 36

WWUS20 KWNS 041935
SEL6
SPC WW 041935
MOZ000-050100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL 700
PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EWD FROM
WRN MO. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED CENTRAL MO WITH HEATING PROVIDING
MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. WITH
APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT FROM KS...A FEW STORMS
WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES

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KEAX [041916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 041916
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
116 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0108 PM HAIL INDEPENDENCE 39.09N 94.35W
03/04/2011 E0.75 INCH JACKSON MO PUBLIC

NEAR HWY 291.


&&

$$

ACH

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KEAX [041844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 041844
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1222 PM HAIL 2 WNW HARRISONVILLE 38.67N 94.38W
03/04/2011 E0.88 INCH CASS MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES. GROUND PARTIALLY COVERED.


&&

$$

ACH

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KAPX [041842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 041842
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
142 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0141 PM FREEZING RAIN E KINGSLEY 44.58N 85.54W
03/04/2011 M0.20 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

7 HR TOTAL THRU 1 PM.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KEAX [041834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 041834
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM HAIL PAOLA 38.58N 94.87W
03/04/2011 E0.88 INCH MIAMI KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

ACH

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KAPX [041831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 041831
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0129 PM FREEZING RAIN 6 E CADILLAC 44.25N 85.29W
03/04/2011 M0.10 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL ICING SO FAR TODAY. FREEZING RAIN STILL FALLING.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KAPX [041831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 041831
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
130 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0129 PM FREEZING RAIN 6 E CADILLAC 44.25N 85.29W
03/04/2011 M0.10 INCH MISSAUKEE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

TOTAL ICING SO FAR TODAY. FREEZING RAIN STILL FALLING.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KGRR [041830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 041830
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
130 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0128 PM FREEZING RAIN 7 ENE WHITE CLOUD 43.61N 85.64W
03/04/2011 M0.15 INCH NEWAYGO MI COCORAHS

FREEZING RAIN FROM 630 AM THROUGH 1 PM. ABOUT 1/8 INCH
ICE ON CLOTHESLINE.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KTOP [041814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KTOP 041814
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1214 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM HAIL 8 S WAVERLY 38.28N 95.60W
03/04/2011 E0.75 INCH COFFEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JW

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KTOP [041812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 041812
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1212 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM HAIL 8 S WAVERLY 38.28N 95.60W
03/04/2011 E0.88 INCH COFFEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JW

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KGRR [041811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 041811
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
110 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FREEZING RAIN 3 NW FARWELL 43.87N 84.91W
03/04/2011 E0.12 INCH CLARE MI EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** TWO DOZEN ACCIDENTS - ONE SERIOUS ON M115


&&

$$

TTURNAGE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0183

ACUS11 KWNS 041752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041752
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041752Z - 042015Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY
BY 20-21Z.

A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING AS AN
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY BASED WITHIN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...TO THE NORTH OF
FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY METRO...INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z. CAPE ABOVE A DEEPENING
SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...IN
GENERAL...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW.

HOWEVER...A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC...IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS
EARLY AS 20-21Z...PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND SPRINGFIELD NORTHWARD
INTO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO AROUND 30
KTS...BENEATH 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL.

..KERR.. 03/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 37349474 38509374 38559291 38269248 37339250 36589313
36379351 36259440 36519489 36979484 37349474

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041727
SWODY2
SPC AC 041726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST SWWD INTO E TX IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST REGION...WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH ACROSS A BROAD AREA...ENCOMPASSING THE S
CENTRAL AND INTO THE SERN CONUS.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS INVOF SERN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS AL TOWARD GA...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLYS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN BOTH MOIST ADVECTION AND SHEAR --
SUPPORTING SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

ELSEWHERE...A MORE NONDESCRIPT UPPER PATTERN AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
SUPPORTS A FAVORABLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WITH DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS/LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT...THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY FROM SERN LA EWD ACROSS
SRN MS...AND THEN LATER INTO SWRN AL AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LACK
OF MORE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/AIRMASS INSTABILITY
/EXPECTED ONSHORE MIXED-LAYER CAPE GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 500
J/KG/...THREAT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT RISK FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 03/04/2011

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KAPX [041716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 041716
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1216 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM FREEZING RAIN 1 N WELLSTON 44.23N 85.95W
03/04/2011 M0.10 INCH MANISTEE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 12 PM.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KMQT [041529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 041529
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1029 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 10 S GRAND MARAIS 46.53N 85.98W
03/04/2011 M5.3 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.35 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0630 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
03/04/2011 M2.5 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.15 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 4 WNW GLADSTONE 45.88N 87.09W
03/04/2011 M2.5 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 1.5 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. 0.21 IN
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 1 N NEWBERRY 46.37N 85.51W
03/04/2011 M3.8 INCH LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.38 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW NEWBERRY 46.35N 85.51W
03/04/2011 M6.7 INCH LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.38 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0740 AM SNOW 5 E ROUND LAKE 46.15N 86.65W
03/04/2011 M2.4 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW 2 ESE THREE LAKES 46.54N 88.17W
03/04/2011 E2.5 INCH BARAGA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.08 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW 4 N PIKE LAKE 46.69N 85.42W
03/04/2011 M4.0 INCH LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 2 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. 0.17 IN
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW 1 SW GLADSTONE 45.84N 87.04W
03/04/2011 M2.4 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.26 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0815 AM SNOW 1 W BARK RIVER 45.71N 87.32W
03/04/2011 M2.5 INCH MENOMINEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.18 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


&&

$$

MBABICH

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KMQT [041529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 041529
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1029 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 ESE THREE LAKES 46.54N 88.17W
03/04/2011 E2.5 INCH BARAGA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.08 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


&&

$$

MBABICH

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KAPX [041521]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 041521
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0856 AM SNOW DETOUR VILLAGE 45.99N 83.90W
03/04/2011 M6.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 10 AM.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KLMK [041514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 041514
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1013 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0433 AM TORNADO 2 WSW PROSPECT 38.34N 85.64W
02/28/2011 JEFFERSON KY NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 100
MPH...WIDTH 100 YARDS. TORNADO WAS CONTINUATION OF UTICA
IN 2W TORNADO EVENT LMK1100193. TORNADO CROSSED OHIO
RIVER AND CAME ASHORE AT END OF TRANSYLVANIA BEACH ROAD.
CONTINUING EAST NORTHEAST IT MOVED BETWEEN TRANSYLVANIA
AND MYFAIR AVENUES SNAPPING AND UPROOTING TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES HAD ROOFING DAMAGE AND ONE BARN WAS HEAVILY
DAMAGED. THE TORNADO CROSSED RIVER ROAD AND LIFTED
SHORTLY AFTER. KENTUCKY PORTION OF PATH LENGTH WAS 1
MILE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100201

$$

CMC

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KAPX [041502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 041502
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0856 AM FREEZING RAIN LAKE CITY 44.33N 85.21W
03/04/2011 E0.13 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

AROUND 1/8 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KAPX [041429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 041429
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
929 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0856 AM FREEZING RAIN 1 SW MANISTEE 44.23N 86.34W
03/04/2011 M0.13 INCH MANISTEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

1/8 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KMQT [041429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 041429
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
929 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 SW GLADSTONE 45.84N 87.04W
03/04/2011 M2.4 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.26 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW 4 N PIKE LAKE 46.69N 85.42W
03/04/2011 M4.0 INCH LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 2 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. 0.17 IN
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


&&

$$

MBABICH

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KLMK [041413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLMK 041413 CCA
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
0907 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 AM TORNADO 2 W UTICA 38.33N 85.70W
02/28/2011 CLARK IN EMERGENCY MNGR

AN NWS STORM DAMAGE SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF-1 TORNADO
WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 95 TO 100 MPH TOUCHED DOWN 2
MILES WEST OF UTICA INDIANA...CROSSED THE OHIO
RIVER...AND LIFTED 1 MILE WEST OF PROSPECT KENTUCKY. THE
EF-1 TORNADO HAD A PATH LENGTH OF 3 MILES AND A MAXIMUM
WIDTH OF 100 YARDS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCURRED
NEAR THE HARROD CREEK AREA WHERE SEVERAL LARGE TREES
WERE SNAPPED AND A SECTION OF ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF. ROOF
DAMAGE OCCURRED TO SEVERAL HOMES AROUND UTICA WITH
WITH SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. THE
TIME OF TOUCHDOWN WAS CHANGED DUE TO VIDEO EVIDENCE AT
TOUCHDOWN POINT SHOWING A 5500 LB CONTAINER MOVED SEVERAL
FEET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100193

$$

SCHOETTMER

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KMQT [041412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 041412
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
912 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM SNOW 1 W BARK RIVER 45.71N 87.32W
03/04/2011 M2.5 INCH MENOMINEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.18 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


&&

$$

MBABICH

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KAPX [041359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 041359
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
859 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0856 AM FREEZING RAIN CADILLAC 44.25N 85.42W
03/04/2011 E0.00 INCH WEXFORD MI BROADCAST MEDIA

ROADS BECOMING ICE COVERED WITH ONE QUARTER INCH OF
SLEET.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KGRR [041327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 041327
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
827 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0826 AM FREEZING RAIN BIG RAPIDS 43.70N 85.48W
03/04/2011 E0.00 INCH MECOSTA MI COCORAHS

TRACE OF FREEZING RAIN.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KGRR [041308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 041308
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
807 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0806 AM FREEZING RAIN HESPERIA 43.57N 86.04W
03/04/2011 M0.10 INCH NEWAYGO MI AMATEUR RADIO

ROADS VERY ICY.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KMQT [041256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 041256
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
755 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 10 S GRAND MARAIS 46.53N 85.98W
03/04/2011 M5.3 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.35 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0630 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
03/04/2011 M2.5 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.15 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW NEWBERRY 46.35N 85.51W
03/04/2011 M6.7 INCH LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.38 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 1 N NEWBERRY 46.37N 85.51W
03/04/2011 M3.8 INCH LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.38 IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 4 WNW GLADSTONE 45.88N 87.09W
03/04/2011 M2.5 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 1.5 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. 0.21 IN
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0740 AM SNOW 5 E ROUND LAKE 46.15N 86.65W
03/04/2011 M2.4 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

MBABICH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041240
SWODY1
SPC AC 041239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/AR/MO...

...ERN KS/NRN MO/IL THIS AFTERNOON...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CO/NM AND WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY HELP INITIATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS ACROSS MO BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS...LEADING TO
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO/IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...OK/TX/AR/SRN MO...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO TX/OK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE POSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOW TO EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX SHOW A CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP
TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN
MO INTO EASTERN OK. WHILE THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH...THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
STORMS GROW UPSCALE IN LINES AND CLUSTERS.

LATE TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EAST TX. A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF HAIL CURRENTLY FORECAST.

..HART/COHEN.. 03/04/2011

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KGRR [041214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 041214
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 AM FREEZING RAIN 3 WSW HART 43.68N 86.42W
03/04/2011 M0.10 INCH OCEANA MI CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KGRR [041207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 041207
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
707 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM FREEZING RAIN BALDWIN 43.90N 85.85W
03/04/2011 E0.00 INCH LAKE MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

FREEZING RAIN BEGAN AT 640 AM. EVERYTHING ICE COVERED.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KGRR [041204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 041204
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM FREEZING RAIN 3 S OKEMOS 42.68N 84.43W
03/04/2011 E0.00 INCH INGHAM MI BROADCAST MEDIA

ICY ROADS HAVE CAUSED AN ESTIMATED 20 TO 30 CARS TO GO IN
A DITCH EAST OF OSEKMOS ON I-96. SEVERAL SCHOOLS IN THE
AREA HAVE TWO HOUR DELAYS DUE TO THE FREEZING RAIN THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 500 AM AND 645 AM.


&&

$$

BMARINO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0182

ACUS11 KWNS 041036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041036
MIZ000-041430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 041036Z - 041430Z

AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI FROM THE
WEST AFTER 11Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH RATES
UP TO 0.05 INCH PER HOUR ANTICIPATED.

THE SHIELD OF RAIN THAT FORMED OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND NERN IA IN
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED
E-NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SFC
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN. WHILE SLEET OR EVEN SNOW MAY
MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT
ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAKENING/SHALLOW ASCENT. AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN
IS FORECAST TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. THE 08Z RUN OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATES LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES UP TO 0.05 IN/HR
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THE PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

..COHEN.. 03/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43528388 43208552 43438650 44488649 44988581 45228443
44988322 44218313 43528388

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040951
SWOD48
SPC AC 040950

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
SWRN STATES ON MONDAY...THEN TURN ENE INTO THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND THE ERN STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH GFS
/FASTER SOLUTION/ AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS
TROUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND RECENT GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
LEND SUPPORT TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A
MODEST SFC CYCLONE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EARLY
TUESDAY TO NRN LOWER MI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST AND
DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

STRONG 850 MB SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRANSPORT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD...ALTHOUGH PRECEDING FRONTAL
PASSAGE INTO THE GULF BASIN THIS WEEKEND MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE QUALITY. NONETHELESS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND THEN TRANSLATE ENE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE NERN STATES...MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY.

POSITIVE-TILT NATURE TO THE STORM SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT MAJORITY OF
THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO OFTEN LEADS TO CONVECTIVE MODE UNCERTAINTY.
SO WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE FROM THE OZARKS EWD INTO THE
MID-SOUTH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...QUESTIONS INVOLVING
THE MOISTURE RETURN...THE TIMING CONTINUITY ISSUES IN THE MODEL
SUITE AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRECLUDE
CONFIDENTLY PLACING A HIGH-END SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

..RACY.. 03/04/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040725
SWODY3
SPC AC 040724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES ON SUNDAY AS A
NEW IMPULSE APPROACHES THE CA COAST. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER GA EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING TO A POSITION OFF
DELMARVA BY 12Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD FROM THE OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND
NRN FL AND BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS.

...ERN CAROLINAS TO NRN FL...
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY DAY 3...WITH 00Z GFS FASTER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF /PREFERRED SOLUTIONS/.
STOUT SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSPORT 1-1.25" PRECIPITABLE WATERS NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS/FL.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...AS MODEST ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 75+ KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE MOIST
AXIS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SVR STORM /DAMAGING
WINDS/ ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TRAILING BANDS OF TSTMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NRN FL AND
COASTAL SE GA SUNDAY MORNING. AT LEAST 40 KTS OF WLY FLOW AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST.

..RACY.. 03/04/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040611
SWODY2
SPC AC 040610

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WCOAST WILL BUCKLE OVER THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND THEN PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A POSITIVE-TILT SYSTEM. PRIMARY SFC LOW LOCATED
OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY SATURDAY WILL MIGRATE INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD INTO THE OH
VLY AND SRN STATES.

...GULF COAST...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS COVERING THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...TIED TO A 35-45 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
OTHER STORMS WILL BE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF AR SWWD INTO CNTRL
TX.

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AMIDST A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO THE OH VLY/LOWER GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MORE ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SIXTY PLUS DEG SFC DEW POINTS COMBINED WITH THE MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ERN LA...SERN MS...AND SRN AL MAY YIELD EMBEDDED
STRONGER STORMS WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
HAIL. MUCH LOWER SVR PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FARTHER INLAND WITHIN
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL DEVELOP SSEWD OFFSHORE IN SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG/N OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD AND/OR DEVELOP DISCONTINUOUSLY SEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/WRN LA AND SE/S TX THROUGH THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. COMPARATIVELY COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN AT
POINTS FARTHER E WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE A THREAT ACROSS ESPECIALLY S TX IF ANY STORM
CAN MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

..RACY.. 03/04/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040549
SWODY1
SPC AC 040547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST THU MAR 03 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR...SWRN
MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MTNS WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SRN GREAT
PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE MODEST LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
RETURN OCCURS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SERN GREAT PLAINS INTO SWRN MO AND WRN
AR...SPREADING INTO CNTRL/E TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AFTER
DARK.

...ERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR...SWRN MO...
A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN
OK AND SWRN MO AS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S-LOW 60S ADVECT
NWD...WHILE A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 DEG C PER KM/
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED W OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER TROUGH...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD SAGGING COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NERN OK AND SERN MO...WHERE LITTLE TO NO CINH WILL BE PRESENT. OVER
SERN OK...A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY EXIST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAK INVERSION LAYER /AROUND 700 MB PER POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/...WITH ANY CONVECTION LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER
21Z...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD.
THUNDERSTORM MODES SHOULD INITIALLY FAVOR QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS AND
SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND GIVEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME
ACROSS FAR ERN OK INTO THE WRN HALF OF AR...WHERE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
EXCEEDING 300 M^2/S^2 SHOULD YIELD A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO /DESPITE MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL AR AFTER 04Z...WITH THE THREAT
FOR SVR WINDS/HAIL DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

...CNTRL/E TX...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
INCREASING MIDLEVEL DCVA BECOMES JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE /WITH PARCELS ROOTED NEAR 850 MB/...BUT
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF 1200-1500
J/KG...AND A SUBSEQUENT LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

..ROGERS/DARROW.. 03/04/2011

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KAPX [040501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 040501
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM SNOW SAULT SAINT MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
03/04/2011 M4.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

11 HR TOTAL THRU MIDNIGHT. SNOWDEPTH 12 INCHES.


&&

$$

JZ

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