MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0183

ACUS11 KWNS 041752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041752
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041752Z - 042015Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY
BY 20-21Z.

A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING AS AN
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY BASED WITHIN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...TO THE NORTH OF
FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY METRO...INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z. CAPE ABOVE A DEEPENING
SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...IN
GENERAL...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW.

HOWEVER...A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC...IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS
EARLY AS 20-21Z...PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND SPRINGFIELD NORTHWARD
INTO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO AROUND 30
KTS...BENEATH 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL.

..KERR.. 03/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 37349474 38509374 38559291 38269248 37339250 36589313
36379351 36259440 36519489 36979484 37349474

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