DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030100
SWODY1
SPC AC 030057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ERN
CONUS TROUGHING S OF UPPER LOW OVER QUE...AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
FROM NWRN MEX NWD ACROSS SASK AND BEYOND. WRN RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE
EWD AND DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME DURING NEXT FEW DAYS...AND LATEST UPPER
AIR DATA INDICATES THIS PROCESS HAS BEGUN...WITH STG UPPER JET
DIGGING BEHIND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM ERN
GULF OF AK SEWD ACROSS SIERRA NV RANGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
WRN PORTIONS ORE/WA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY WHILE
SECOND TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY NEAR
44N140W -- MOVES EWD TOWARD COAST AND REINFORCES BROADER SCALE
TROUGHING.

AT SFC...RESIDUAL/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER OVER
PORTIONS S-CENTRAL FL...WHILE PRONOUNCED RIDGING PERSISTS FROM
N-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SWWD ACROSS NWRN GULF. LEE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE OVER HIGH PLAINS...FROM MT TO VICINITY TX/NM BORDER.

...SRN PLAINS...
OUTFLOW CURRENT ACCOMPANYING BAND OF EXISTING TSTMS OVER TX
PANHANDLE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO OVERCOME THAT CAPPING FOR
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. THEREAFTER AND ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR
SFC-BASED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING
HOURS AS SFC DIABATIC COOLING INCREASES SBCINH IN ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY FOCI FOR CONVECTION. NARROW CORRIDOR OF AT
LEAST MRGL MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ABOVE SFC
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANYING LLJ THAT SHOULD VEER FROM SLY TO SWLY AND
STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT AROUND 09Z. THIS PROCESS...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED WAA AND ACCOMPANYING DESTABILIZATION...MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND/OR WRN OK LATE TONIGHT INTO PRE-DAWN HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG MAY BE AVAILABLE TO
PARCELS THAT CAN BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO ROUGHLY 600 MB LFC.

...INTERIOR NW...
FAVORABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN SUPPORT OF
TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME WRN ORE AND MOVING INTO SWRN ID.
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER SFC HEATING...DEW POINTS MID 40S TO LOW 50S
F AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ALOFT IS KEEPING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
FAVORABLY STEEP. RAOBS LIKELY DID NOT SAMPLE ZONE OF STRONGEST DPVA
ALOFT AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH BOI SOUNDING TOO FAR
E AND MFD RAOB JUST BEHIND TROUGH. AS NEAR-SFC LAYER COOLS NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO PEAK THEN
DECLINE...HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STG GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/03/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021953
SWODY1
SPC AC 021950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS...

12Z U/A DATA INDICATED A POCKET OF COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE CNTRL ROCKIES...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
SITUATED ON THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
MODIFICATION OF 12Z DENVER SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS
YIELDS STEEP LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO INTO N-CNTRL/NERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...WAA WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE WIDELY
SCATTERED...ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
PNHDL INTO WRN OK.

...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN INTO NRN ROCKIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN
ORE/NRN CA WHICH WILL WEAKEN WHILE TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT. WHILE AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE PRESENCE
OF MIDLEVEL MOIST PLUME AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WHEN COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. SIMILAR TO CNTRL ROCKIES...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW
MORE VIGOROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL.

..MEAD.. 10/02/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021648
SWODY2
SPC AC 021646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER N AMERICA DURING THE
DAY TWO PERIOD. THIS REGIME WILL FEATURE AN INTENSIFYING TROUGH
OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN U.S. AND CANADA...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER CNTRL CANADA INTO THE N-CNTRL STATES...AND A WEAKENING
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S.

...SRN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...

INTENSIFYING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THE NWD
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH TX INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH ERN TX...ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ERN EDGE OF EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATE PLUME ORIGINATING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.

IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CAP WILL BE
OVERCOME ALONG WARM FRONT AND/OR WEAK DRYLINE/TROUGH THROUGH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT /MAINLY ELEVATED/
APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER ERN OK
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AS STRENGTHENING...NOCTURNAL LLJ ENHANCES
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. SOME
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS GIVEN MODEST
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CURRENTLY...THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF
ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS...

AGEOSTROPHY IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND BROADER
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED...DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR E AS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INVOF OF LEE TROUGH. SOME
SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO ELY...MAINTAINING A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PENINSULA. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN WEAK...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 10/02/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021559
SWODY1
SPC AC 021556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COLD UPPER TROUGH IN THE NERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF CONUS FROM THE PLAINS EWD.

WITH GULF MOISTURE NOW ABSENT FROM THE MAINLAND U.S. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TIME BEING IS MINIMAL.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STRONG PACIFIC IMPULSES WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. THE RCKYS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY
E INTO THE HIGH PLNS.

CONTINUED NE MOTION OF LEAD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SPREAD INCREASING
UVV ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN AND INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PAC NW TODAY.

COUPLED WITH MODEST AFTN HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID LVL
MOISTURE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD BANDS OF CONVECTION/STORMS...
DESPITE MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS.

STRENGTHENING LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER WIND FIELD...
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND HIGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS

SMALL HAIL. BUT DEGREE OF MID/UPR LVL BUOYANCY /CAPE AOA 250 J PER
KG/ NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER.

..HALES/SMITH.. 10/02/2008

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KBOX [021335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 021335
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1211 PM FLOOD WOONSOCKET 42.00N 71.50W
10/01/2008 PROVIDENCE RI TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS STREETS FLOODED WITH SEVERAL IMPASSABLE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATER UP TO THE
CAR DOORS.

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG BRAINTREE 42.20N 71.00W
10/01/2008 NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE BRANCHES DOWN ON ABBOTT STREET

&&

$$

RLG

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KMHX [021304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMHX 021304
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
903 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 S WILLIAMSTON 35.81N 77.06W
10/01/2008 MARTIN NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED

&&

$$

CQD

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KMHX [021251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMHX 021251
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
851 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM FUNNEL CLOUD OLD FORD 35.64N 77.07W
10/01/2008 BEAUFORT NC PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED

&&

$$

CQD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021248
SWODY1
SPC AC 021245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STRONG PACIFIC IMPULSES WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS DEEP CIRCULATION MOVES E FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE SCALE DISTURBANCES
...RCKYS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY E INTO THE HIGH PLNS AS SRN STREAM
JET UNDERCUTTING IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED.

RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTIONS
BEING S FL /S OF TRAILING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE IN THE CAROLINAS/...MAINE /DOWNSTREAM FROM AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSE AS IT TURNS NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA/...AND THE PAC NW /WHERE
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPR TROUGH/.

...INTERIOR PAC NW...
CONTINUED NE MOTION OF LEAD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SPREAD INCREASING
UVV ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN AND INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PAC NW TODAY.
COUPLED WITH MODEST AFTN HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID LVL
MOISTURE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD BANDS OF CONVECTION/STORMS...
DESPITE MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS.

STRENGTHENING LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER WIND FIELD...
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND HIGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS
SMALL HAIL. BUT DEGREE OF MID/UPR LVL BUOYANCY /CAPE AOA 250 J PER
KG/ NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER.

...CO/NRN NM AND ADJACENT HI PLNS...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MOISTURE
POCKET IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE ESE WITH THE 20-25 KT MID/UPR LVL FLOW...INTO REGION OF LOW LVL
SELY WINDS ALONG STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG.
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT OF 25+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD YIELD
A STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL OR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. BUT RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST
THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SVR WILL BE MINIMAL.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/02/2008

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KAKQ [021222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 021222
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
821 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM TORNADO FRANKLIN 36.68N 76.94W
09/26/2008 CITY OF FRANKLIN VA PUBLIC

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF TORNADO IN AN OPEN FIELD NEAR S.P.
MORTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. EF-0 WINDS
OF 65 TO 75 MPH ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

ALS

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KAKQ [021217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 021217
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 AM TORNADO FRANKLIN 36.68N 76.94W
09/26/2008 CITY OF FRANKLIN VA PUBLIC

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF TORNADO IN AN OPEN FIELD NEAR S.P.
MORTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. EF-0 WINDS
OF 65 TO 75 MPH ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

ALS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020858
SWOD48
SPC AC 020857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT GULF
MODIFICATION COULD BEGIN SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...AS THE AMPLIFIED
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH POSSIBLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
NEGLIGIBLE SUNDAY FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. BUT...IF THIS TROUGH PROGRESSION OCCURS...A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD EXIST MONDAY...ALONG A
STRENGTHENING DRY LINE...FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE 02/00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS STILL
APPEARS TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE...CONCERNING HOW FAST THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN BLOCK
WEAKENS...AND ITS IMPACT ON THE RESULTANT UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION...
LEADING TO EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 10/02/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020726
SWODY3
SPC AC 020724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK...EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC...WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...LIKELY REACHING THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SLOW TO
WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES... WITH
LINGERING MID/HIGH-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN CANADA.

...HIGH PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE SOME MOISTENING IS PROGGED THROUGH THE PLAINS BENEATH CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS ADVECTING OFF THE PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR STRONG/DEEP GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND
RETURN FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ZONES
OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU EARLY SATURDAY...TO PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE CURRENT TIME.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC...COUPLED WITH MOISTENING
OFF THE PACIFIC...MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...STRONG MID-LEVEL
COOLING/LIFT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE DIGGING UPPER JET
AXIS...WITH A 500 MB COLD CORE AT OR BELOW -20C DEVELOPING
INLAND...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT
LEAST THE GREAT BASIN. AND...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL... PERHAPS LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

..KERR.. 10/02/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020553
SWODY1
SPC AC 020550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING IN ERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN W. SHORTWAVE UPPER CYCLONE --
STRENGTHENING OVER NRN ONT ATTM -- IS FCST TO DIG SSEWD INTO LARGE
SCALE TROUGH POSITION BY 3/00Z THEN TURN EWD. ASSOCIATED COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IN SUPPORT OF GEN THUNDER
POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT STATES.
MEANWHILE...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY W OF CA COAST...CROSSING 140W. THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO
EJECT NEWD OUT OF NERN PACIFIC MEAN TROUGH POSITION...AND ACROSS ORE
AROUND 03/00Z.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE MOST OF E
COAST...AND SEWD OVER NRN FL -- WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS FL WITH
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE. DESPITE SOME LEE THROUGHING OVER CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...TRAJECTORIES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS NWRN GULF
WILL PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN THIS PERIOD.

OF THE VARIOUS WIDELY DISPERSED AREAS OF GEN TSTM POTENTIAL...TWO
APPEAR TO HAVE CONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL...BUT TOO MRGL/ISOLATED TO
WARRANT GRID PROBABILITIES AOA 5-PERCENT ATTM. IN BOTH AREAS...
LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE/BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SVR
THREAT...THOUGH SOME GUSTS APCHG SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON PEAK WARMING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF WA AND CENTRAL/ERN ORE...JUXTAPOSED WITH
POCKETS OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
SHEAR. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS...HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND RESULTING WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY FAVOR STG GUSTS OR MAINTENANCE OF SMALL HAIL
ALOFT TO SFC. HOWEVER...WEAKER LAPSE RATES ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 400
MB WILL HELP TO LIMIT BUOYANCY...AND ESPECIALLY POSITIVE AREA ABOVE
ROUGHLY -20 DEG C ISOTHERM. PRIND MLCAPES GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AOB
200 J/KG MOST AREAS.

...S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGHER TERRAIN WARMS...REMOVING CINH. MODIFIED
NAM-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 500-750 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE...SUPPORTED BY STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEW
POINTS NEAR 40 F. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE STG BENEATH NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT WITH RELATIVELY MEAGER ABSOLUTE FLOWS LIMITING BULK
SHEAR VALUES.

..EDWARDS/HURLBUT.. 10/02/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020534
SWODY2
SPC AC 020532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUPPORT MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMANATING FROM A STRONG GENERALLY
ZONAL PACIFIC JET...WILL AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM MAY BEGIN
IMPACTING THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
MINOR...IF ANY...CHANGE TO THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CANADA...BUT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN THE
EASTERN TROUGHS AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER.

THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
LAYER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AND...WHILE IT NOW APPEARS A BIT MORE POSSIBLE THAT A SURFACE FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MAY WEAKEN/REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...FLORIDA...
AS THE FRONT REDEVELOPS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA...
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
IT. CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF/MREF INDICATE
THAT A NARROW PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR SOON ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING BEYOND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OF
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
DESPITE THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW...MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF ENOUGH MOISTENING...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF
THE PLATEAU REGION...FOR WEAK TO LOCALIZED MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED STORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS WHERE INHIBITION MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK IN PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.

OTHERWISE...MOISTENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES INTO N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...BUT OROGRAPHIC FORCING
BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES. STRONGER INHIBITION SEEMS LIKELY TO
EXIST EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE NEAR A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING.

..KERR.. 10/02/2008

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