SWODY1
SPC AC 021556
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
COLD UPPER TROUGH IN THE NERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF CONUS FROM THE PLAINS EWD.
WITH GULF MOISTURE NOW ABSENT FROM THE MAINLAND U.S. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TIME BEING IS MINIMAL.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STRONG PACIFIC IMPULSES WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. THE RCKYS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY
E INTO THE HIGH PLNS.
CONTINUED NE MOTION OF LEAD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SPREAD INCREASING
UVV ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN AND INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PAC NW TODAY.
COUPLED WITH MODEST AFTN HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID LVL
MOISTURE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD BANDS OF CONVECTION/STORMS...
DESPITE MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS.
STRENGTHENING LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER WIND FIELD...
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND HIGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS
SMALL HAIL. BUT DEGREE OF MID/UPR LVL BUOYANCY /CAPE AOA 250 J PER
KG/ NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER.
..HALES/SMITH.. 10/02/2008
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