Friday, January 6, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070459
SWODY1
SPC AC 070457

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ERN GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
IN ITS WAKE...FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS /RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS E OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY/
WHILE THE WRN TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGS S/SEWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY
SWWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT STALL ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
NRN PORTION SAGS SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
NRN GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
WHILE MID-LEVEL WARMING/HEIGHT RISES ABOVE THE 700 MB LAYER WILL
INHIBIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH TODAY...A FEW/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. REGIONAL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WHILE STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED...THEY COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED BY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S/LOW 70S AND DEW
POINTS INCREASE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F. AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASE...SBCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 500-750 J/KG. HOWEVER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK TODAY /LESS THAN 25 KT/ THEREFORE
LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION IS ANTICIPATED.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 01/07/2012

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KSGX [070256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 070256
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
656 PM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM HIGH SURF 3 S PACIFIC BEACH 32.75N 117.24W
01/06/2012 SAN DIEGO CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MISSION BEACH LIFEGUARD REPORTED 8FT.AVG.AND15FT. MAX.


&&

$$

NISLA

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KLOX [070151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 070151
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
551 PM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HIGH SURF 1 SSW VENTURA 34.25N 119.27W
01/06/2012 VENTURA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

VENTURA HARBOR PATROL REPORTED 10-15 FOOT BREAKING WAVES
IN AND AROUND VENTURA HARBOR.


&&

$$

SIRARD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070025
SWODY1
SPC AC 070022

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER PORTIONS OF LWR MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY... A
DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER AREA...MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM/SREF...IN PARTICULAR...ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND LIFT COULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME. SO...THE CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA
WILL BE MAINTAINED...BUT PROBABILITIES SEEM NEAR THE MINIMUM
THRESHOLD AT BEST.

..KERR.. 01/07/2012

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KSGX [070024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 070024
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
423 PM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM HIGH SURF SAN CLEMENTE 33.45N 117.61W
01/06/2012 ORANGE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SAN CLEMENTE LIFEGUARD REPORTED THAT HIGH SURF CAUSED A
STRINGER TO COME OFF OF THE SAN CLEMENTE PIER.

0410 PM DENSE FOG NEWPORT BEACH 33.61N 117.91W
01/06/2012 ORANGE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEWPORT BAY HARBOR PATROL REPORTED 100 YARDS VISIBILITY.


&&

$$

JMOKER

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KMSO [062112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 062112
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
212 PM MST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM AVALANCHE 6 SE PHILIPSBURG 46.27N 113.20W
01/01/2012 GRANITE MT PARK/FOREST SRVC

*** 1 FATAL *** SNOWMOBILER. TIME ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

GIBSON

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KLOX [062054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 062054
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1254 PM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1252 PM HIGH SURF MORRO BAY 35.36N 120.83W
01/06/2012 SAN LUIS OBISPO CA COAST GUARD

AT 1245 PM USCG MORRO BAY REPORTED WAVE HEIGHTS AT 9 FEET
WITH MAXIMUM TO 11 FEET FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

$$

SETO

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KLOX [061916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 061916
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1116 AM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1057 AM HIGH SURF 2 NNW REDONDO BEACH 33.86N 118.40W
01/06/2012 LOS ANGELES CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

AT 1030 AM HERMOSA BEACH LIFE GUARDS REPORTED WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 6 FEET WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
FROM THE WEST.


&&

$$

SETO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061915
SWODY1
SPC AC 061913

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AT 19Z...REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO SWRN LA. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW THUS FAR...AS INDICATED BY LIMITED LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THE 1630Z FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED.

..PETERS.. 01/06/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE NW AND
N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO
THIS TROUGH...AND A SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT...HAS LED TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SE TX AND W/SW LA. LOW-MIDLEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AT BEST INLAND OVER SE TX/LA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...A LOW END TSTM RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE SE AR/NRN MS
AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING
INFLUENCE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WAA REGIME
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AFTER ABOUT 06Z.

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KLOX [061912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 061912
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1111 AM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1057 AM HIGH SURF 2 SSW OXNARD 34.16N 119.22W
01/06/2012 VENTURA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

AT 914 AM CHANNEL ISLAND HARBOR PATROL REPORTED WAVE
HEIGHTS AT 6 FEET WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET
FROM THE WEST.


&&

$$

SETO

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KLOX [061906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 061906
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1106 AM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1057 AM HIGH SURF 4 SE SAN PEDRO 33.71N 118.28W
01/06/2012 LOS ANGELES CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

AT 1027 AM THE CABRILLO BEACH LIFE GUARD STATION REPORTED
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6 FEET WITH MAXIMUM HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET.


&&

$$

SETO

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KLOX [061857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 061857
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1057 AM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HIGH SURF MORRO BAY 35.36N 120.83W
01/06/2012 SAN LUIS OBISPO CA COAST GUARD

AT 7AM THE US COAST GUARD STATION AT MORRO BAY REPORTED
AT THE MORRO BAY ENTRANCE THE WAVE HEIGHTS WERE 14 TO 16
FEET FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

$$

SETO

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KSGX [061840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 061840
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1039 AM PST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HIGH SURF HUNTINGTON BEACH 33.69N 118.01W
01/06/2012 ORANGE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LIFEGUARD REPORTED SURF HEIGHT 8 FEET WITH A MAX TO 14
FEET ALONG HUNTINGTON BEACH.

1000 AM HIGH SURF NEWPORT BEACH 33.61N 117.91W
01/06/2012 ORANGE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LIFEGUARD REPORTED SURF HEIGHT OF 6 FEET WITH MAX TO 8
FEET ALONG NEWPORT BEACH.

1000 AM HIGH SURF SAN CLEMENTE 33.45N 117.61W
01/06/2012 ORANGE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LIFEGUARD REPORTED SURF HEIGHT OF 5 FEET WITH MAX TO 8
FEET AT SAN CLEMENTE PIER.

1000 AM HIGH SURF 1 S PACIFIC BEACH 32.78N 117.24W
01/06/2012 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LIFEGUARD REPORTED SURF HEIGHT OF 6 FEET WITH MAX TO 8
FEET ALONG MISSION BEACH.


&&

$$

JTHOMAS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061727
SWODY2
SPC AC 061726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE ERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVE OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL DOWNSTREAM OF A
MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SE TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH NM AND THE SRN GREAT
BASIN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ARE EXPECTED TO DAMPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ON SATURDAY AS THEY TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE AREA OF HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.

AT 12Z SATURDAY...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH KY AND AR TO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN TX.
THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SWD AND SHOULD STALL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NRN AL/MS TO THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/TSTM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
MIDLEVEL WARMING IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THIS REGION. DESPITE THIS FACTOR
TENDING TO REDUCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH...THE COMBINATION OF MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE /PW VALUES TO NEAR 1
INCH/ AND SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE AROUND 500 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LOW LEVEL WAA AND FRONTAL ASCENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION AS MIDLEVEL FORCING WILL TEND TO BE WEAK.
INITIAL STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER SRN
AR/NRN MS...BUT AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25
KT...AT BEST...MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT
OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C
PER KM/ WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

CONSENSUS OF MODELS WARRANTED SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GENERAL TSTM
AREA...WITH THE REMOVAL OF PART OF NRN AR AND THE ADDITION OF THE
REST OF LA INTO EXTREME ERN TX.

..PETERS.. 01/06/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061612
SWODY1
SPC AC 061611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE NW AND
N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO
THIS TROUGH...AND A SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT...HAS LED TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SE TX AND W/SW LA. LOW-MIDLEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AT BEST INLAND OVER SE TX/LA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...A LOW END TSTM RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE SE AR/NRN MS
AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING
INFLUENCE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WAA REGIME
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AFTER ABOUT 06Z.

..THOMPSON/JIRAK.. 01/06/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061257
SWODY1
SPC AC 061255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY
ONE PERIOD...LARGELY DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF POLAR BRANCH
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
PACIFIC NW. ELSEWHERE...A SUBTROPICAL BRANCH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER SRN TX/NERN MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE TRANSLATING
EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS PERSISTED THIS MORNING JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING
APPEARS TO BEST CAPTURE THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS
INLAND...YIELDING MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INVOF OF THE
UPPER TX AND SWRN LA COASTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...
WEAKENING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 750 MB /EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ CAST
UNCERTAINTY ON TSTM POTENTIAL FARTHER E AND INLAND OVER SRN PARTS OF
LA AND MS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

..MEAD/DEAN.. 01/06/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060955
SWOD48
SPC AC 060955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO RELATIVELY CLOSE
AGREEMENT IN HANDLING PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE U.S. IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. BOTH MODELS DEPICT A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER TX DAY 4
/MON. JAN. 9/ -- ALONG WITH SOME CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM
CYCLOGENESIS SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE WRN GULF TOWARD/ONTO THE LA
COAST LATE. THE MODELS THEN SHIFT THE UPPER LOW STEADILY
EWD...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 5 /TUE. JAN. 10/...AND THEN
CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DAY 6 /WED. JAN. 11/ BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THU. JAN. 12.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GULF COAST REGION DAY 5...AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM SRN LA NWD INTO THE MID
SOUTH...THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE/SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE -- BASED ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND CHARACTER OF THE FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE LOWER
HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE...SOME SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING AT LEAST
LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- IS EVIDENT.

HAVING SAID THAT...FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS
EVIDENT IN THE MODELS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE WITH RICHEST GULF MOISTURE
REMAINING CONFINED TO THE COAST SUGGESTS MEAGER INSTABILITY --
PARTICULARLY FARTHER N INTO THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW
WHERE MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST. WHILE THIS DOES
NOT PRECLUDE SHOWERS AND LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS -- ALONG WITH A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES PRIMARILY IN THE DAY 5 PORTION OF THE
PERIOD...ATTM THE OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A
30%-EQUIVALENT OUTLOOK AREA.

..GOSS.. 01/06/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060815
SWODY3
SPC AC 060814

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO DECELERATE THIS PERIOD...WITH ONE PIECE OF ENERGY
SHEARING NEWD ACROSS OK/KS AND A SECOND DIGGING SWD TOWARD SWRN
NM/FAR W TX.

AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS
TX DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM.

WHILE SHOWERS AND LOCAL/OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED LIGHTNING EXPECTED
PRIMARILY FROM TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...THE SETUP
REMAINS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD GIVEN
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING E OF THE MAIN TROUGH -- AND THUS WEAK LAPSE
RATES/MINIMAL INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 01/06/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060605
SWODY2
SPC AC 060604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ERN U.S. CONTINUES EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD...CROSSING THE FOUR
CORNERS AND REACHING THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE.

AS THIS TROUGH DIGS SWD...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
INCREASING WITH TIME...AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS TX THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...LOWER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY...
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SERN U.S. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES/MEAGER INSTABILITY TO HINDER THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO A LARGE EXTENT -- ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

AS THE WRN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND
ONLY MODEST FLOW ALOFT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 01/06/2012

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