Saturday, October 26, 2013

KFWD [262111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 262111
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
411 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0406 PM HAIL 5 N RISING STAR 32.17N 98.97W
10/26/2013 E1.50 INCH EASTLAND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

$$

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KFWD [262108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 262108
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL EASTLAND 32.40N 98.82W
10/26/2013 E1.00 INCH EASTLAND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN EASTLAND

$$

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KGRR [262054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 262054
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
454 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0449 PM HAIL 3 S EATON RAPIDS 42.47N 84.66W
10/26/2013 M0.25 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

EBW

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KGRR [262022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 262022
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
422 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0416 PM HAIL 1 WNW MASON 42.58N 84.45W
10/26/2013 M0.25 INCH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

DURATION 2 MINUTES.


&&

$$

EBW

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KGRR [262020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 262020
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
420 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL OKEMOS 42.72N 84.43W
10/26/2013 M0.25 INCH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY SHOWER OF PEA SIZE HAIL. DURATION 3 MINUTES. COUPLE
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO. NOW TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN.


&&

$$

EBW

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KGRR [262013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 262013
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
412 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM HAIL 6 NW MASON 42.64N 84.52W
10/26/2013 M0.25 INCH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

VERY SMALL HAIL. MELTING QUICKLY.


&&

$$

EBW

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KGRR [262009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 262009
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
409 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL SW OKEMOS 42.72N 84.43W
10/26/2013 M0.25 INCH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

EBW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1975

ACUS11 KWNS 262007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262006
TXZ000-OKZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262006Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT STILL REMAINS
UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS THREAT WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO REQUIRE A
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS WEAK/UNCLEAR...BUT A SMALL AREA OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT NEAR THE RED RIVER EAST OF WICHITA
FALLS. THIS APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER DIGGING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...PERHAPS FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION.

IN THE PRESENCE OF 30 KT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...THE MOST
VIGOROUS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
PRECIPITATION INDUCED/ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-23Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
ONGOING.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAKENING...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
RISK FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 10/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32769970 33449902 34129789 34199682 33559570 32059733
31999920 32769970

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261954
SWODY1
SPC AC 261952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS NW TX...

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK EXCEPT FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY DELINEATIONS AND THE REMOVAL
OF THE 10 PERCENT OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF TSTMS FROM THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AREA.

..SMITH/JEWELL.. 10/26/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF A WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
TRANSITION AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SSEWD FROM THE
NE GULF OF AK TOWARD BC...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PAC
NW AND NRN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...THE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL AS A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES QUICKLY EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
LAKE ONTARIO...AS FLOW VEERS TO WLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOWER LAKES. FARTHER S...A
SEPARATE SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM RISK
AREA...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS...WILL ACCOMPANY A SRN
STREAM WAVE MOVING OVER NW TX TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...NW TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ESEWD
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE AND WEAK COLD
FRONTAL SURGE. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE RETURN /LOW-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/ IS UNDERWAY
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO NW TX. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD
BREAKS AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE BUOYANCY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NW TX /MLCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/.

SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR OR AFTER 21Z
ACROSS NW TX NEAR THE N/NE EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ...ALONG
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH...WITH STORMS SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING SEWD INTO CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT. THE MODERATE BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 40 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /ROUGHLY -15 C AT
500 MB/. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY GROWS
UPSCALE INTO A SMALL MCS OR TWO.

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KGRR [261743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 261743
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
142 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0138 PM HAIL ALMA 43.38N 84.66W
10/26/2013 M0.25 INCH GRATIOT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL.



&&

$$

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KGRR [261742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 261742
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 W HOWARD CITY 43.40N 85.53W
10/26/2013 MONTCALM MI PUBLIC

LARGE PINE TREE BRANCHES DOWN. TIME AND
LOCATION ARE APPROXIMATE.



&&

$$

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KGRR [261739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 261739
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
139 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW ROOSEVELT PARK 43.21N 86.30W
10/26/2013 MUSKEGON MI PUBLIC

2-3 FT DIAMETER TREE UPROOTED.



&&

$$

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KGRR [261718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 261718
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
118 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 PM HAIL MOUNT PLEASANT 43.60N 84.77W
10/26/2013 M0.25 INCH ISABELLA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MEADE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261654
SWODY2
SPC AC 261652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES DURING THE DAY WHILE THE POLAR BRANCH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WEST COAST AND EVOLVES INTO A VIGOROUS LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
AR AND LA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX AND THE
ARKLATEX REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE TX UPPER COAST AND FEATURE
MID 60S DEWPOINTS...DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY
MODEST LAPSE RATES AND ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY BEFORE THIS
ACTIVITY WEAKENS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO LA.
THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
DISTURBANCE AND SUBDUED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE SUPPORTS A
CONTINUATION OF NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..SMITH/JEWELL.. 10/26/2013

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KAPX [261324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KAPX 261324
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
924 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW IRONTON 45.26N 85.22W
10/26/2013 M46 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 W IRONTON /DW7501/


0534 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CHARLEVOIX 45.30N 85.27W
10/26/2013 M43 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

AWOS STATION CHARLEVOIX /CVX/


0455 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
10/26/2013 M43 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

AWOS STATION MACKINAC ISLAND /MCD/


0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
10/26/2013 M55 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

MESONET STATION GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT /GTLM4/


0232 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW PELLSTON 45.57N 84.80W
10/26/2013 M40 MPH EMMET MI ASOS

ASOS STATION PELLSTON RGNL AIRPORT OF EMMET
COUNTY /PLN/


0127 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW MANISTEE 44.23N 86.34W
10/26/2013 M46 MPH MANISTEE MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 SSW MANISTEE /DW9113/


0115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE ELBERTA 44.63N 86.21W
10/26/2013 M41 MPH BENZIE MI AWOS

AWOS STATION FRANKFORT /FKS/


1256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BEAVER ISLAND 45.70N 85.55W
10/26/2013 M56 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI ASOS



1256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW BEAVER ISLAND 45.69N 85.57W
10/26/2013 M48 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

AWOS STATION BEAVER ISLAND /SJX/


1255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N CADILLAC 44.28N 85.42W
10/26/2013 M47 MPH WEXFORD MI AWOS

AWOS STATION CADILLAC /CAD/


1224 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.72W
10/26/2013 M41 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 E MACKINAW CITY /MACM4/


1208 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE EMPIRE 44.80N 86.05W
10/26/2013 M42 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 SE EMPIRE /SBDM4/


1040 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NAUBINWAY 46.11N 85.45W
10/25/2013 M52 MPH MACKINAC MI C-MAN STATION



0950 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NAUBINWAY 46.11N 85.45W
10/25/2013 M53 MPH MACKINAC MI C-MAN STATION



0940 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANISTEE 44.24N 86.33W
10/25/2013 M47 MPH MANISTEE MI C-MAN STATION




&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [261319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 261319
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
919 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W HUBBELL 47.17N 88.49W
10/26/2013 M44 MPH HOUGHTON MI ASOS

ASOS STATION HOUGHTON COUNTY MEMORIAL
AIRPORT.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [261319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 261319
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
918 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE COPPER HARBOR 47.47N 87.88W
10/26/2013 M46 MPH KEWEENAW MI ASOS

ASOS STATION COPPER HARBOR.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [261318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 261318
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
917 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT 47.18N 87.22W
10/26/2013 M49 MPH LSZ266 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION STANNARD ROCK.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [261317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 261317
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
917 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 N TROWBRIDGE PARK 46.72N 87.41W
10/26/2013 M49 MPH MARQUETTE MI MESONET

MESONET STATION GRANITE ISLAND.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [261316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 261316
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
916 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE SEUL CHOIX POINT 45.97N 85.87W
10/25/2013 M50 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI MESONET

MESONET STATION PORT INLAND.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [261316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 261316
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
915 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 56 NNW REDRIDGE 47.87N 89.31W
10/25/2013 M51 MPH LSZ263 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION ROCK OF AGES - ISLE ROYALE.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [261315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 261315
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
914 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 50 NNW EAGLE HARBOR 48.11N 88.61W
10/26/2013 M56 MPH KEWEENAW MI MESONET

MESONET STATION OJIBWAY - ISLE ROYALE.



&&

$$

NWS MARQUETTE MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KGRR [261314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 261314
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
914 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW LUDINGTON 43.98N 86.56W
10/26/2013 M49.00 MPH LMZ849 MI BUOY

PEAK GUST. PEAK WAVE HEIGHT OF 12.8 FT AT 310AM.

1255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S HOLLAND 42.74N 86.10W
10/26/2013 M48.00 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS

0115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE COMSTOCK PARK 43.06N 85.65W
10/26/2013 M45.00 MPH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.28W
10/26/2013 M48.00 MPH LMZ846 MI OTHER FEDERAL

PEAK WIND GUST AT THE UGLOS BUOY. PEAK WAVE HEIGHT OF
17.5 FT MEASURED AT 0230AM.

0147 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.24W
10/26/2013 M53.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

0235 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW MUSKEGON 43.24N 86.34W
10/26/2013 M60.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBS

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST S BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
10/26/2013 M59.00 MPH MASON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLOS WEATHER STATION

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/26/2013 M58.00 MPH LMZ844 MI OTHER FEDERAL

0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S HOLLAND 42.74N 86.10W
10/26/2013 M48.00 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS

0345 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE LUDINGTON 43.97N 86.41W
10/26/2013 M47.00 MPH MASON MI AWOS

0433 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GERALD R FORD ARPT 42.89N 85.53W
10/26/2013 M43.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS


&&

$$

HOVING

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KGRR [261305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 261305
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
905 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW LUDINGTON 43.98N 86.56W
10/26/2013 M49.00 MPH LMZ849 MI BUOY

PEAK GUST. PEAK WAVE HEIGHT OF 12.8 FT AT 310AM.

0115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE COMSTOCK PARK 43.06N 85.65W
10/26/2013 M45.00 MPH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.28W
10/26/2013 M48.00 MPH LMZ846 MI OTHER FEDERAL

PEAK WIND GUST AT THE UGLOS BUOY. PEAK WAVE HEIGHT OF
17.5 FT MEASURED AT 0230AM.

0345 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE LUDINGTON 43.97N 86.41W
10/26/2013 M47.00 MPH MASON MI AWOS

0433 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GERALD R FORD ARPT 42.89N 85.53W
10/26/2013 M43.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS


&&

$$

HOVING

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261246
SWODY1
SPC AC 261244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TO W-CENTRAL
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH PERIOD...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA AND WRN CONUS MEAN RIDGING. MAIN UPPER-AIR
FEATURE AFFECTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD WILL BE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
AND AVAILABLE RAOB DATA FROM WRN KS SWWD ACROSS NRN TX PANHANDLE TO
ERN NM. EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX...WHICH HAS BEEN 500-MB CIRCULATION
CENTER...WAS MOVING EWD FROM NM OVER SRN PANHANDLE REGION OF TX.
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...REACHING WRN OK...NW TX AND TX PERMIAN BASIN REGION BY 00Z.
THEREAFTER...AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO CONFLUENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE
ESEWD...REACHING ARKLATEX REGION AND CENTRAL TX BY END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...DRYLINE WAS DRAWN FROM NRN COAHUILA NWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS SOUTH-PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...NEAR I-27 AND
JUST W OF CAPROCK. MOIST ADVECTION TO ITS E AND VERTICAL MIXING TO
ITS W WILL BALANCE EACH OTHER ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE NET DRYLINE
MOVEMENT PRIOR TO FROPA DESCRIBED NEXT. COLD FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM
WEAK LOW IN DDC/GCK AREA SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NERN/E-CENTRAL NM.
THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SSEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS...OVERTAKING
DRYLINE AND INTERSECTING DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER NW TX. BY
00Z...WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD EXIST OVER NW TX...WITH COLD
FRONT SWWD ACROSS TRANS-PECOS REGION. FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM LOW NEWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR MASS...INCLUDING
ANTECEDENT RAIN-COOLED AIR...OVER CENTRAL OK. MEANWHILE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OVER N-CENTRAL TX OR RED RIVER REGION E OF
LOW...ITS SPECIFIC POSITION INFLUENCED STRONGLY BY CLOUDS/PRECIP
OVER AND N OF THIS AREA DURING BULK OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. WEAK SFC LOW
SHOULD SHIFT EWD TO ESEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT...WHILE COLD
FRONT PROCEEDS SEWD INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION.

...W-CENTRAL...N-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS ON BOTH SIDES OF
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
BUOYANCY AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTN...ALONG
WITH STG VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE
DEEP/CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME
INTO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AMIDST AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE DEEP
SHEAR...AND BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CATEGORICAL SVR RISK FOR
PARTS OF THIS REGION. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS MORE CONDITIONAL...GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL NEAR-SFC FLOW AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DURATION OF
ANY SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES THAT DO DEVELOP.

LIMITING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...RESTRICTING OVERALL BUOYANCY...AS WELL AS WEAK SFC
WINDS THAT COULD HINDER CONVERGENCE. STILL...PATCHES OF SUSTAINED
INSOLATION WILL AID IN REMOVING MLCINH AND...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
COMMONLY MID-50S TO LOW-60S F...BOOSTING PREFRONTAL/PRECONVECTIVE
MLCAPE INTO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. UNCONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH NWD EXTENT TO SRN OK...THOUGH ISOLATED
SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AFTN/EARLY EVENING TSTMS
OVER N TX MAY EVOLVE INTO AT LEAST LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OR MCS AND
MOVE SEWD OVER CENTRAL TX LATE EVENING...OFFERING STG-DAMAGING GUSTS
AND ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS AT FIRST. HOWEVER...SVR THREAT
SHOULD BECOME MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL AS FOREGOING NEAR-SFC PARCELS
COOL DIABATICALLY.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 10/26/2013

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KAPX [261245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 261245
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
844 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW PELLSTON 45.57N 84.80W
10/26/2013 M40 MPH EMMET MI ASOS

ASOS STATION PELLSTON RGNL AIRPORT OF EMMET
COUNTY /PLN/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [261241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 261241
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
840 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE ELBERTA 44.63N 86.21W
10/26/2013 M41 MPH BENZIE MI AWOS

AWOS STATION FRANKFORT /FKS/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [261238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 261238
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
837 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1208 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE EMPIRE 44.80N 86.05W
10/26/2013 M42 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 SE EMPIRE /SBDM4/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [261237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 261237
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
836 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
10/26/2013 M43 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

AWOS STATION MACKINAC ISLAND /MCD/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [261235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 261235
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
835 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0534 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CHARLEVOIX 45.30N 85.27W
10/26/2013 M43 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

AWOS STATION CHARLEVOIX /CVX/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [261235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 261235
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
834 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW PRESQUE ISLE 45.37N 83.50W
10/26/2013 M44 MPH LHZ347 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 5 NNW PRESQUE ISLE /PRIM4/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KGRR [261019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 261019
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
619 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.27W
10/26/2013 M48 MPH LMZ846 MI OTHER FEDERAL

PEAK WIND GUST AT THE UGLOS BUOY. PEAK WAVE
HEIGHT OF 17.5 FT MEASURED AT 0230AM.



&&

$$

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [261018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 261018
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW IRONTON 45.26N 85.22W
10/26/2013 M46 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 W IRONTON /DW7501/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KGRR [261015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 261015
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
612 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM WAVE HEIGHT 4 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.27W
10/26/2013 LMZ846 MI OTHER FEDERAL


WAVE HEIGHT 17.5 FEET AT THE UGLOS BUOY
OFFSHORE OF PORT SHELDON.



&&

$$

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260901
SWOD48
SPC AC 260901

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE/MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND POTENTIALLY INTO DAY 6/THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST. CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS SEEM
POSSIBLE ON MOST /IF NOT ALL/ OF THESE DAYS GIVEN SEASONALLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH...WHILE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HR...PRECLUDES DELINEATION OF
SPECIFIC 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS. IN GENERAL...THE
00Z ECMWF STILL FEATURES A SLOWER /SUBJECTIVELY PREFERRED/ SOLUTION
AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/MORE POSITIVE-TILT 00Z GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE.

ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SCENARIO IS UNCLEAR
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.
REGARDLESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS ARE MOST PROBABLE
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK AND PARTS
OF KS ON DAY 4/THURSDAY.

WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY CONSIDERABLY INCREASES INTO DAY
5/WEDNESDAY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHIFT EASTWARD ON DAY 6/THURSDAY...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER/MIDDLE VALLEY...POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY AND
EVEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

..GUYER.. 10/26/2013

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KAPX [260853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260853
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
451 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW PRESQUE ISLE 45.37N 83.50W
10/26/2013 M41 MPH LHZ347 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 5 NNW PRESQUE ISLE /PRIM4/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [260851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260851
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
450 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1224 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.72W
10/26/2013 M41 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 E MACKINAW CITY /MACM4/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [260845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260845
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
444 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0127 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW MANISTEE 44.23N 86.34W
10/26/2013 M46 MPH MANISTEE MI MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 SSW MANISTEE /DW9113/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [260842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260842
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
441 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N CADILLAC 44.28N 85.42W
10/26/2013 M47 MPH WEXFORD MI AWOS

AWOS STATION CADILLAC /CAD/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [260841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260841
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
441 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW BEAVER ISLAND 45.69N 85.57W
10/26/2013 M48 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

AWOS STATION BEAVER ISLAND /SJX/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [260839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260839
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
439 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S NAUBINWAY 46.09N 85.44W
10/25/2013 M53 MPH LMZ341 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION NAUBINWAY /NABM4/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [260835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260835
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
10/26/2013 M55 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

MESONET STATION GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT /GTLM4/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [260832]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260832
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
10/26/2013 M62 MPH MANISTEE MI MESONET

MESONET STATION MANISTEE HARBOR /MEEM4/



&&

$$

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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KGRR [260829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 260829
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
428 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S HOLLAND 42.74N 86.10W
10/26/2013 M48 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS


&&

$$

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KGRR [260823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 260823
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
423 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0147 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.24W
10/26/2013 M53 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS


&&

$$

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KGRR [260818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 260818
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
417 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST S BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
10/26/2013 M59 MPH MASON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLOS WEATHER STATION


&&

$$

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KGRR [260812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 260812
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
412 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW MUSKEGON 43.24N 86.34W
10/26/2013 M60 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBS


&&

$$

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KGRR [260807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 260807
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
407 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/26/2013 M58 MPH LMZ844 MI OTHER FEDERAL


&&

$$

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260729
SWODY3
SPC AC 260727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO MONDAY...NOTABLY HIGHLIGHTED BY AN
AMPLIFYING/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG POLAR
JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST STATES. TO THE EAST...GRADUAL
HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH A BELT
OF MODERATELY STRONG/CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HEIGHT RISES...PERSISTENT MOIST
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE OZARKS/LOWER
MO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. BY AFTERNOON...SEASONALLY MOIST UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INCREASINGLY
COMMON WITH A WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SHARPENING
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO BE TO THE
EAST OF A SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/SHARPEN ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST A LOW OR CONDITIONAL-TYPE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY EXIST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE
AND NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SUCH DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 45+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOMEWHAT
SUBTLE LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES AND SOME LINGERING GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...THE EXACT EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF
SUCH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS
QUESTIONABLE. OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE FOR STORMS TO NOCTURNALLY
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND THE ADJACENT
MO VALLEY ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE HAIL RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MONDAY
NIGHT.

OVERALL...GIVEN SOME LARGE-SCALE UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO THE
DIGGING/POTENTIALLY DELAYED NATURE OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES
TROUGH...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
AREAS SUCH AS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK INTO PARTS OF KS
WILL BE SUBSEQUENTLY REEVALUATED FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK.

..GUYER.. 10/26/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260602
SWODY2
SPC AC 260600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
A QUASI-ZONAL/SPLIT LARGE-SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY. A WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
MEANWHILE...A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET WILL DIG
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/UPPER TX COAST INTO LA/ADJACENT AR.
THIS WILL BE TIED TO WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEAST-MOVING/WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A WEAKENING/STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LARGE-SCALE/MASS FIELD TRENDS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY...NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...INCLUDING OK/NORTH TX WITHIN AN
ELEVATED MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...TSTM PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.

..GUYER.. 10/26/2013

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KAPX [260541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 260541
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
140 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BEAVER ISLAND 45.70N 85.55W
10/26/2013 M48.00 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI ASOS


&&

$$

ASULLIVA

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KAPX [260540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260540
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
139 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..


&&

$$

ASULLIVA

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KAPX [260538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260538
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
138 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BEAVER ISLAND 45.70N 85.55W
10/26/2013 M56 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI ASOS


&&

$$

ASULLIVA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260530
SWODY1
SPC AC 260528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NWRN/WCNTRL TX...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ESEWD THEN DIG INTO NWRN TX BY 27/00Z. THIS
FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION ACROSS NM FRIDAY
AND LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL RENEW DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY. WHILE SFC ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE TX
COAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING NWWD ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND NEAR 60F SFC DEW POINTS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD RETURN ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX AHEAD OF WEAK WIND SHIFT.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR
FROM SERN NM/FAR WEST TX ALONG I-20 TOWARD THE ABI REGION. THIS
PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BY
18Z AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE LOWER-MID 70S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT EXHIBIT SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500
J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO
SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
ROTATE. GREATEST RISK WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL GREATER THAN ONE
INCH...AND IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE
RAISED ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW/PETERS.. 10/26/2013

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KGRR [260506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 260506
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
106 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.24W
10/26/2013 M46 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS


&&

$$

EBW

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KGRR [260505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 260505
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
105 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S HOLLAND 42.74N 86.10W
10/26/2013 M48 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS


&&

$$

EBW

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KABQ [260446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 260446
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1046 PM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 8 SSW RED RIVER 36.59N 105.45W
10/25/2013 E5.2 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

KACHINA PEAK IN TAOS SKI VALLEY.

0800 AM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
10/25/2013 E5.0 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.

0515 PM HAIL 3 WSW CHAMITA 35.06N 106.14W
10/25/2013 M1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

INTERSTATE 40 MILE POST 189


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301454 ABQ1301455 ABQ1301453

$$

SHY

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KABQ [260446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KABQ 260446
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1045 PM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 3 WSW CHAMITA 35.06N 106.14W
10/25/2013 M1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

INTERSTATE 40 MILE POST 189


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301453

$$

SHY

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KGRB [260437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 260437
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1119 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHERWOOD 44.17N 88.27W
10/25/2013 M52 MPH CALUMET WI TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR HIGH CLIFF STATE PARK


&&

$$

TIMK

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