Sunday, May 13, 2007

KKEY [132257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 132257
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0601 PM WATER SPOUT 2 S BAHIA HONDA KEY 24.63N 81.26W
05/13/2007 GMZ054 FL PUBLIC

A MARINER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BAHIA HONDA KEY.


&&

$$

AALBANES

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KGGW [132251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 132251
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
451 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 3 E VANDALIA 48.35N 106.85W
05/13/2007 M0.75 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0435 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE TAMPICO 48.35N 106.75W
05/13/2007 E60 MPH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH COVERED THE GROUND


&&

$$

JIMB

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KMLB [132234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 132234
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
634 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HAIL 2 E OKEECHOBEE 27.24N 80.80W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH OKEECHOBEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

JRC

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KBYZ [132229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 132229
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
429 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HAIL 45.65N 110.48W
05/13/2007 1.00 INCH PARK MT SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING ROAD.

0315 PM HAIL 45.99N 110.64W
05/13/2007 1.00 INCH PARK MT SPOTTER

0354 PM HAIL 45.83N 110.02W
05/13/2007 1.00 INCH SWEET GRASS MT SPOTTER

0356 PM HAIL BIG TIMBER 7N 45.92N 109.99W
05/13/2007 0.88 INCH SWEET GRASS MT SPOTTER

HAIL IS SOFT WITH HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT WIND.

0400 PM HAIL IN BIG TIMBER 45.84N 109.95W
05/13/2007 0.88 INCH SWEET GRASS MT SPOTTER

0407 PM HAIL 45.64N 109.89W
05/13/2007 1.00 INCH SWEET GRASS MT SPOTTER

0410 PM HAIL 45.64N 109.89W
05/13/2007 1.00 INCH SWEET GRASS MT COUNTY SHERIFF

0412 PM HAIL 7 NW BIG TIMBER 45.89N 110.28W
05/13/2007 1.25 INCH SWEET GRASS MT SPOTTER

HAILING HEAVILY

&&


$$

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KJAX [132226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 132226
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
625 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL 4 NE TRENTON 29.66N 82.77W
05/13/2007 E0.75 INCH GILCHRIST FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC. TREE FELL ON
POWERLINE ON STATE ROAD 47.


&&

$$

ARS

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KFWD [132216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 132216
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM HAIL 10 SE GRANBURY 32.34N 97.67W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH HOOD TX PUBLIC

ON HOOD/JOHNSON COUNTY LINE.

$$

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KTFX [132215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 132215
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
413 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM HAIL BUFFALO 46.82N 109.83W
05/13/2007 M0.25 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0317 PM HAIL 5 S BOZEMAN 45.60N 111.04W
05/13/2007 M1.25 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 PM HAIL 5 SW BOZEMAN 45.63N 111.12W
05/13/2007 E0.50 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 PM HAIL 6 SW BOZEMAN 45.62N 111.13W
05/13/2007 E1.25 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0323 PM HAIL BOZEMAN 45.68N 111.04W
05/13/2007 E0.50 INCH GALLATIN MT PUBLIC

0325 PM HAIL 3 NW BOZEMAN 45.71N 111.09W
05/13/2007 M1.50 INCH GALLATIN MT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0333 PM TSTM WND GST 10 E BOZEMAN 45.68N 110.84W
05/13/2007 M53.00 MPH GALLATIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE BOZEMAN HILL DOT SENSOR.

0337 PM HAIL 10 SE MOORE 46.87N 109.55W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF WEATHER REPORTS RECEIVED AT THE NWS OFFICE SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [132204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 132204
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
404 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 PM TSTM WND GST 10 E BOZEMAN 45.68N 110.84W
05/13/2007 M53 MPH GALLATIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE BOZEMAN HILL DOT SENSOR.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KMFL [132149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 132149
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
549 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL PLANTATION 26.12N 80.25W
05/13/2007 E0.25 INCH BROWARD FL PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF SUNRISE
BLVD. AND NW 16TH STREET. ALSO STRONG WIND GUSTS.


&&

$$

LOCKE

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KLIX [132148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 132148
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 PM HAIL 5 NNE PICAYUNE 30.60N 89.65W
05/13/2007 E0.25 INCH PEARL RIVER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING IN THE CARRIERE COMMUNITY.


&&

$$

92/JSS

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KTFX [132144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 132144
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
343 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL 10 SE MOORE 46.87N 109.55W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KMLB [132141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 132141
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
541 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL OKEECHOBEE 27.24N 80.83W
05/13/2007 M0.50 INCH OKEECHOBEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED MARBLE SIZE HAIL NEAR
INTERSECTION OF SR 70 AND SR 98.


&&

$$

JRC

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KTFX [132132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 132132
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM HAIL BUFFALO 46.82N 109.83W
05/13/2007 M0.25 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0317 PM HAIL 5 S BOZEMAN 45.60N 111.04W
05/13/2007 M1.25 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0317 PM HAIL 4 SE BOZEMAN 45.64N 110.98W
05/13/2007 M1.50 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SAUCIER

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KCHS [132132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 132132
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
531 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM WILDFIRE 5 S GLENNVILLE 31.86N 81.93W
05/13/2007 TATTNALL GA OTHER FEDERAL

DREGGERS WILDFIRE 99 PERCENT CONTAINED. 1750 ACRES BURNED
SO FAR.


&&

$$

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KTFX [132129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 132129
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
329 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 3 NW BOZEMAN 45.71N 111.09W
05/13/2007 M1.50 INCH GALLATIN MT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [132128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 132128
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
328 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 6 SW BOZEMAN 45.62N 111.13W
05/13/2007 E1.25 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KJAX [132127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 132127
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
527 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 4 N ALACHUA 29.84N 82.48W
05/13/2007 E0.75 INCH ALACHUA FL PUBLIC

HAIL FELL FOR 15 MINUTES. WIND ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH. BLEW
GLASS TABLE AND CHAIRS 100 YARDS. HEAVY RAIN. PROPERTY
FLOODED UNDER 2 INCHES OF WATER. STORM LASTED FROM 430 TO
500 PM.


&&

$$

MCALLISTER

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KTFX [132124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 132124
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM HAIL BOZEMAN 45.68N 111.04W
05/13/2007 E0.50 INCH GALLATIN MT PUBLIC


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [132121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 132121
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
321 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 5 SW BOZEMAN 45.63N 111.12W
05/13/2007 E0.50 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTBW [132045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 132045
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 PM HAIL 7 SSE INVERNESS 28.75N 82.30W
05/13/2007 E0.25 INCH CITRUS FL PUBLIC

HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING NORTH OF ISTACHATTA

0251 PM HAIL 8 NE BROOKSVILLE 28.64N 82.30W
05/13/2007 E1.75 INCH HERNANDO FL PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT ISTACHATTA, FL.

0306 PM HAIL 6 S WILLISTON 29.28N 82.46W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH LEVY FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SOME 1 INCH HAIL ALONG WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT
MORRISTON, FL.

0324 PM HAIL 6 S WILLISTON 29.28N 82.46W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH LEVY FL TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL NEAR MORRISTON, FL.

0341 PM HAIL 5 NE WILDWOOD 28.91N 81.99W
05/13/2007 E0.25 INCH SUMTER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

1/4 INCH HAIL AT VILLAGES, FL.

0355 PM HAIL MANGO 27.99N 82.31W
05/13/2007 E0.75 INCH HILLSBOROUGH FL PUBLIC


&&

$$

REYNES

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KMOB [132044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 132044
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0329 PM HAIL IRVINGTON 30.51N 88.24W
05/13/2007 E0.88 INCH MOBILE AL NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

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KJAX [132043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 132043
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 5 N OCALA 29.26N 82.13W
05/13/2007 E1.75 INCH MARION FL PUBLIC

HAIL FROM 320 TO 340 PM. HWY 326 AND US 301/441. BRANCHES
DOWN.

0325 PM HAIL 5 NW OCALA 29.24N 82.19W
05/13/2007 E0.25 INCH MARION FL PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR MILE MARKER 358 ON INTERSTATE 75.

0340 PM HAIL 5 N OCALA 29.26N 82.13W
05/13/2007 E2.00 INCH MARION FL PUBLIC

NEAR HWY 326 AND US 441. REPORT OF HUGE HAIL. WINDOWS AND
WINDSHIELDS BROKEN.


&&

$$

MM

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KJAX [132038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 132038
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 5 N OCALA 29.26N 82.13W
05/13/2007 E1.75 INCH MARION FL PUBLIC

HAIL FROM 320 TO 340 PM. BRANCHES DOWN.


&&

$$

MM

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 268

WWUS20 KWNS 132032
SEL8
SPC WW 132032
MTZ000-140400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MONTANA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LIVINGSTON MONTANA TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BAKER MONTANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WW LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS STORMS SPREAD QUICKLY EWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SRN
AND INTO ERN MT THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


..EVANS

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KMLB [132030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 132030
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL LEESBURG 28.81N 81.88W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH LAKE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER OBSERVED NICKEL SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED
BASED ON RADAR.


&&

$$

JRC

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KJAX [132020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 132020
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL CITRA 29.41N 82.11W
05/13/2007 E0.75 INCH MARION FL PUBLIC

HAIL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.


&&

$$

ARS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0781

ACUS11 KWNS 131949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131949
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-132045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT AND EXTREME NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131949Z - 132045Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT
AND NWRN WY AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE NEWD INTO S CNTRL AND ERN MT.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE SURFACE BASED INITIATION APPEARS
IMMINENT.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN MT NEAR GLASGOW SWWD INTO ERN ID. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS SETTLING SLOWLY SWD JUST N OF BILLINGS. NELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SRN AND ERN MT
BENEATH 7.5-8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG IN THIS REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND NERN ID. THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE CAP WEAKENS
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SPREADS EWD THROUGH THIS AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE WARM
SECTOR. A 40 TO 50 KT MID LEVEL JET ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOVE WEAK ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS RESULTING IN
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR INITIAL STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH ANY STORMS ADVANCING NEWD AND INTERACTING
WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

.DIAL.. 05/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...

46370500 45000609 44730997 44631114 44901223 45861156
47130811 47960600 47430507

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131946
SWODY1
SPC AC 131944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...

..NRN HIGH PLAINS...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SEWD THROUGH CNTRL MT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON /W OF GGW-DLN LINE AS OF 19Z/ IN ADVANCE OF WELL DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN WA INTO THE ID PNHDL. THUS
FAR...TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/ HAVE PERSISTED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY IN
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM HLN THROUGH HVR. MORE
VIGOROUS...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT OVER SWRN MT/NWRN WY WHERE INCREASED
LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS
OR AN MCS WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT.

..UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW NE OF MBG WITH ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO N OF FAR AND THEN SSEWD THROUGH CNTRL
MN INTO WRN IA. AIR MASS S OF THIS WARM FRONT HAS WARMED WELL INTO
THE 80S ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE 50S
WHICH WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAP REMAINS QUITE STRONG ACROSS
WARM SECTOR.

OF INTEREST IS SOME ALTOCUMULUS ENHANCEMENT FROM JMS-FAR INVOF WARM
FRONT...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
CRESTING MEAN RIDGE AXIS OVER WRN/CNTRL ND. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
TO THE N OF WARM FRONT OVER FAR NRN MN AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE BEGINS TO ACT ON A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS /MUCAPES OF
1000-2000 J PER KG/. MOST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MORE
INTENSE STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER.

STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS WHILE MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD
INTO THE UP OF MI OVERNIGHT.

..FL...

MODESTLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. TSTMS HAVE FORMED ON BOTH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS
WEAK W-E ORIENTED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING SWD THROUGH THE NRN
PENINSULA. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER NEAR OCF AS IT MOVES/PROPAGATES SWD THIS
AFTERNOON.

.MEAD.. 05/13/2007

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KMLB [131942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 131942
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 PM HAIL DE BARY 28.88N 81.31W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH VOLUSIA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

VOLUSIA SHERIFFS OFFICE AT DE BARY SUBSTATION OBSERVED
NICKEL SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

JRC

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KJAX [131932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 131932
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
332 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND GST OCALA 29.19N 82.13W
05/13/2007 M49 MPH MARION FL AWOS

OCALA AIRPORT REPORTED GUST TO 49 MPH.


&&

$$

ARS

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KGSP [131916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 131916
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HAIL 2 E ROYSTON 34.29N 83.07W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH HART GA PUBLIC

HAIL STARTED AS PEA-SIZED...THEN INCREASED TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.


&&

$$

MCAVOY

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KJAX [131912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 131912
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0309 PM HAIL 5 NE ROMEO 29.26N 82.38W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH MARION FL PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 326
IN WESTERN MARION COUNTY.


&&

$$

ENYEDI

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KCTP [131908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 131908
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM TSTM WND DMG ICKESBURG 40.49N 77.29W
05/12/2007 PERRY PA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN


&&

$$

KF

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KJAX [131908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 131908
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0306 PM HAIL OCALA AIRPORT 29.17N 82.22W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH MARION FL PUBLIC

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE OCALA AIRPORT.

&&

$$

ENYEDI

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KGSP [131900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 131900
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HAIL 2 S DALLAS 35.29N 81.18W
05/12/2007 E1.00 INCH GASTON NC PUBLIC

A PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL. STRONG WIND BUT NO
DAMAGE.


&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KMFL [131851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 131851
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL 1 W JUPITER 26.93N 80.12W
05/13/2007 E0.25 INCH PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BAXTER

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KCAE [131817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 131817
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 2 NNW BETHUNE 34.44N 80.36W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH KERSHAW SC PUBLIC

REPORT OR PENNY-SIZE HAIL JUST NORTHWEST OF BETHUNE


&&

$$

LINTON

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KMLB [131809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 131809
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
209 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0137 PM HAIL 2 SE HOBE SOUND 27.04N 80.11W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH MARTIN FL PUBLIC

JUPITER ISLAND PUBLIC SVC REPORTED 5 TO 10 MINUTES OF
QUARTER SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

FXD

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KGSP [131807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 131807
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL 2 SW ABBEVILLE 34.16N 82.40W
05/12/2007 E0.75 INCH ABBEVILLE SC PUBLIC

A PUBLIC REPORT OF VERY BRIEF HAIL WHICH WAS ABOUT THREE
QUARTER INCH DIAMETER.


&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KMLB [131800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 131800
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0138 PM HAIL 2 S HOBE SOUND 27.03N 80.13W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH MARTIN FL TRAINED SPOTTER

RANGER STATION AT JOHNATHAN STATE PARK REPORTED 1 INCH
HAIL FOR 10 MINUTES DROPPING OFF TO PEA SIZE


&&

$$

FXD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131642
SWODY2
SPC AC 131641

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...

MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADA AND THE
NRN TIER OF STATES WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS/MID MO VALLEYS BY 15/12Z. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN ND IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE UP OF MI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY EVENING
WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS.

..UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO ERN CO...

DESPITE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S/ THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWWD THROUGH
ERN SD...CNTRL NEB AND ERN CO.

DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT/ WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL WE POSSIBLE
WITH A THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS LIKELY BEING THE DOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE. STILL...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

..WRN CO INTO SRN WY...

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S...PERHAPS LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL COMPENSATE...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE E OVER THE FRONT
RANGE OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AS
SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITH SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..ELSEWHERE...

A WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ALONG SWRN
PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK
IMPULSE TRANSLATING WWD/NWWD MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN MS...LA INTO ERN TX
MONDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE BRIEFLY SEVERE.

FINALLY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. AN ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG WRN
PENINSULA SEA BREEZE. THIS ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL COEXIST BENEATH
MODEST HIGH LEVEL WLY WINDS /30-50 KT AT 7-10 KM AGL/ SUGGESTING
THAT SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A THREAT
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

.MEAD.. 05/13/2007

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KGGW [131638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 131638
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1038 AM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HAIL FLATWILLOW 46.83N 108.40W
05/12/2007 E0.88 INCH PETROLEUM MT CO-OP OBSERVER

INITIALLY PEA SIZE FOLLOWED BY NICKEL HAIL.

0915 PM TSTM WND GST 8 E LORING 48.79N 107.69W
05/12/2007 E60.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT PUBLIC

UNSURE OF THE EXACT TIME, BUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 900 AND
930 PM.


&&

$$

BOGEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131607
SWODY1
SPC AC 131605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MN INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

..NRN PLAINS...
MAIN VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ERN WA/ORE AND WILL OVERSPREAD NWRN MT/ID THIS AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT
AND NRN/WRN WY THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER WRN SD ALONG E-W ORIENTED FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS NRN
WY...WHILE WARM FRONT REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND POSSIBLY LIFTS A
LITTLE NWD INTO SERN ND AND NRN MN. STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL DRY
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH CAPPING LIKELY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CAP SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SERN ND/NERN SD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LIMITED AND WILL OPT TO KEEP CONDITIONAL LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NELY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL
INTO PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL MT. HERE SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 50F
AND SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND WEAK CAPPING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH SEVERE THREAT
INCREASING AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
TODAY/THIS EVENING. GIVEN ELY COMPONENT OF SURFACE FLOW AND 50 KT
WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE STRONG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
LINES/BOW ECHOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
WILL BE GREATER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...IF DEW POINTS CAN HOLD IN THE LOWER/MID
50S THEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS AND SHIFT ENEWD OVERNIGHT INTO WRN
ND/NWRN SD...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER DARK.

..NRN MN INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MS. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CREST THE UPPER RIDGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...THOUGH MODERATE TO
STRONG MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT SHOULD ENHANCE THE
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
QUICKLY ESEWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS
CAN ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

..FL PENINSULA...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS FROM -10C
TO -12C OVER MUCH OF FL INVOF MID LEVEL COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING UPPER LOW NOW SHEARING APART JUST EAST OF FL. CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT HEATING TO OCCUR AND SHOULD SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FOR SEVERE IS
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS AND POSSIBILITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS /12Z SOUNDING AT TBW HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS IN THE LOW LEVELS/.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS ACTIVE SEA BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND SWD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO NRN FL SHOULD SUPPORT/FOCUS SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL FL. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME LARGE HAIL...WHILE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY ENHANCE THE WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CORES.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD AGAIN
SUPPORT SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SPREADING ENEWD OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN ISOLATED
STRONG GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO WRN SD/WRN NEB/NERN CO.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

..CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO TX...
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP ACROSS THIS REGION ATOP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED PULSE-SEVERE
STORMS TO FORM WITHIN WEAK SHEAR. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY
DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH STORMS DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.

.EVANS/LEVIT.. 05/13/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0780

ACUS11 KWNS 131558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131558
FLZ000-131800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131558Z - 131800Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN THROUGH CNTRL FL
AND SPREAD SSEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS AREA WILL BE
UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z UPDATE...AND TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC SWWD
THROUGH NRN FL AND INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING IS OCCURRING IN WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AN
EXCEPTION IS OVER PARTS OF W CNTRL THROUGH S FL WHERE DEWPOINTS IN
SOME LOCATIONS ARE MIXING INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE TO PRESENCE OF A
MORE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON THE MORNING RAOBS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE
NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF CNTRL FL. AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SWD MOVING
COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AN MCV WAS ALO
INDICATED JUST OFF THE SERN GA COAST MOVING SWD...BUT MOST OF THE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE.
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL AND PULSE
STORMS...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR SOME STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

.DIAL.. 05/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

30048152 29358122 27738054 26708014 26218120 27848232
28978247 29558247

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131300
SWODY1
SPC AC 131257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN HI
PLNS/NRN PLNS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS...

..SYNOPSIS...
CNTRL WA UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/NE INTO NRN ID/WRN MT TODAY
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH
EVOLVING OVER SASKATCHEWAN/ERN MT ON MONDAY. ATTENDANT SFC CENTER
NOW OVER SE MT LIKELY WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY TODAY.
THE LOW SHOULD ELONGATE NE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE NRN HI
PLNS. WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE LWR MO VLY SHOULD EDGE E/NE INTO THE
UPR MS VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE UPR GRT LKS EARLY MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPR TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM N TX E/SE ACROSS THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO CNTRL FL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING NERN STATES TROUGH LIKELY WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS IT
MOVES FARTHER S ACROSS THE SERN STATES/LWR TN VLY.

..SRN MT/NRN WY INTO SWRN ND/NWRN SD...
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND INCREASING UVV AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING WA
UPR LOW LIKELY WILL LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WRN MT AND NRN ID A BIT LATER TODAY...WHERE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN AND SRN MT...WHERE
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S F.

CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF UPR SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION OF CIN
SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP E ACROSS CNTRL MT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW IN SERN MT/SW ND/NW SD AND
PERHAPS FAR NRN WY. 40-50 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR ON SERN FLANK OF UPR
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WEAK BUT BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW NEAR SFC LOW WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THIS
REGION...WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER E INTO
THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...WHERE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO AN MCS OR TWO
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR
WIND/HAIL.

..NRN MN/NRN WI/UPPER MI...
SCTD AREAS OF ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. SOME
OF THESE ON OCCASION MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
IN GENERAL...THE UPR MS VLY REGION WILL REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF
CNTRL PLNS RIDGE...WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING A
PERSISTENT CAP.

IN NRN MN EWD INTO NRN WI/UPR MI...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVV TO
SUPPORT MORE ROBUST ELEVATED STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON /EARLY
TONIGHT. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
..CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EARLY MONDAY.

.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/13/2007

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KARX [131207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 131207
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
707 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM HAIL 5 SE LEWISTON 43.93N 91.80W
05/13/2007 E0.88 INCH WINONA MN PUBLIC


&&

$$

BOYNE

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KTAE [130825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 130825
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE ABBEVILLE 31.54N 85.21W
05/12/2007 HENRY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES DOWN SOUTH OF ABBEVILLE ON STATE ROUTE 95.

&&

$$

GODSEY

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130822
SWOD48
SPC AC 130821

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD AHEAD OF OH
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SFC FRONT MAY NOT MOVE OFFSHORE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WHERE SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PROVE HOSTILE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK FLOW/INSTABILITY ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS.

.DARROW.. 05/13/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130713
SWODY3
SPC AC 130711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MID MS/OH VALLEYS...

COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS INTO THIS REGION WILL
MAINTAIN STRONGEST FORCING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT SUGGEST MULTICELL-TYPE PROFILES WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST. DEEP SWLY
FLOW FAVORS WEAK BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY HAIL. GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WILL
BE WARRANTED. HOWEVER...LATER OUTLOOKS MAY BE ABLE TO DISCERN AN
ENHANCED RISK AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

.DARROW.. 05/13/2007

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KMSO [130627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 130627
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1226 AM MDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HAIL 2 W COLUMBIA FALLS 48.37N 114.22W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC

REPORTED NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL

1157 AM HAIL WHITEFISH 48.41N 114.34W
05/12/2007 E0.50 INCH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC


&&

$$

DICKERSON

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