Tuesday, November 24, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250031
SWODY1
SPC AC 250029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET MAX THAT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND APPROACH THE FL
PENINSULA BY 25/12Z. A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
NOW IN PLACE OVER FL...WITH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME RISK OF ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...00Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES POOR. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS AS THEY SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

...IA/IL...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
OVER EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. BEYOND
4-5Z...DIURNAL COOLING WILL PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS.

..HART.. 11/25/2009

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KJAX [242342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 242342
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
642 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM LIGHTNING 5 E GROVE PARK 29.59N 82.08W
11/24/2009 ALACHUA FL BROADCAST MEDIA

A 10 YEAR OLD BOY WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN HAWTHORNE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOY WAS TAKEN TO SHANDS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA. THIS REPORT WAS RECEIVED FROM THE
BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST IN GAINESVILLE AND CONFIRMED BY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN ALACHUA COUNTY.


&&

$$

SHULER

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KLOX [242308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 242308
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
308 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0937 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE SAN FERNANDO 34.35N 118.42W
11/24/2009 M65.00 MPH LOS ANGELES CA OTHER FEDERAL

NORTH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 MPH AT CAMP NINE...ELEVATION
4000 FEET.

1043 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE FILLMORE 34.37N 118.84W
11/24/2009 M70.00 MPH VENTURA CA OTHER FEDERAL

NORTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 MPH AT WILEY
RIDGE...ELEVATION 1645 FEET.


&&

$$

HALL

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KDVN [242238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 242238
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
438 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM HAIL 1 SE BURLINGTON 40.80N 91.11W
11/24/2009 M0.25 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LEGRO

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KTFX [242235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 242235
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/23/2009 M67.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

67 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0604 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/23/2009 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

58 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/23/2009 M77.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

77 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0854 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/23/2009 M61.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

61 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

1127 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/23/2009 M53.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/23/2009 M49.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

49 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
11/24/2009 M55.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.


&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS SINCE MONDAY EVENING.

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [242230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 242230
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
328 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/23/2009 M49.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

49 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
11/24/2009 M55.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [242213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 242213
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/23/2009 M53.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KCRP [242159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 242159
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 SE CC NAS 27.63N 97.24W
11/24/2009 M49.00 MPH NUECES TX MESONET

PACKERY CHANNEL

1124 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 W NATIONAL SEASHORE 27.48N 97.32W
11/24/2009 M55.00 MPH GMZ230 TX MESONET

BIRD ISLAND

1124 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 9 SSE CC NAS 27.58N 97.22W
11/24/2009 M39.00 MPH GMZ250 TX MESONET

BOB HALL PIER


&&

$$

MGITTING

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241953
SWODY1
SPC AC 241952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...IA/IL AND S TX AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
/EVENING WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MO/IA
CLOSED LOW BEFORE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. FARTHER S...THE TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND WILL PASS
DEEP S TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME... SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL/S FL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM INVOF A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE SOME AS A SPEED MAX IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...AND A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...MOVE OVER THE GULF AND APPROACH THE W COAST OF FL EARLY
WEDNESDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN ONE OR MORE OF THE GULF CLUSTERS...AND
MORE DISCRETE CELLS IN THE MODIFYING AIR MASS ALONG THE FL E COAST.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

..THOMPSON.. 11/24/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/

...CNTRL/S FL...
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF AND S OF
WEAK W-E FRONT LOCATED E/W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...WHERE SBCAPE WILL
APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO
MID LVL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR
THREAT TODAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE INTO/DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED AS WIND FIELD/WAA
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL GULF IMPULSE.
COUPLED WITH BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS. THESE COULD POSE A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
AN ISOLD TORNADO EARLY WED.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241620
SWODY2
SPC AC 241619

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MO/IA WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD
OVER NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AB/SK DIGS
SEWD AND EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER IL/IND BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WITH NO APPRECIABLE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL
DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE PENINSULA AND
INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.

...CENTRAL/S FL DURING THE DAY...
A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW MOVING FROM NE MEXICO TO THE WRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION N OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AND MOVE
EWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE RATHER MODEST OVER FL GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AN INCREASE
IN LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. STILL...THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INFLUENCE OF
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUGGEST THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ARE MOST APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON.. 11/24/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241604
SWODY1
SPC AC 241603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/S FL...
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF AND S OF
WEAK W-E FRONT LOCATED E/W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...WHERE SBCAPE WILL
APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO
MID LVL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR
THREAT TODAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE INTO/DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED AS WIND FIELD/WAA
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL GULF IMPULSE.
COUPLED WITH BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS. THESE COULD POSE A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
AN ISOLD TORNADO EARLY WED.

..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 11/24/2009

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KOUN [241414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 241414
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
814 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W MEDICINE PARK 34.73N 98.56W
11/24/2009 M58 MPH COMANCHE OK MESONET

STRONG WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT CHANNELED THROUGH WICHITA
MOUNTAINS. 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS WERE RECORDED FROM 105 AM
TO 230 AM. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.


&&

$$

11

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KOAX [241403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 241403
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
803 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S TECUMSEH 40.36N 96.19W
11/24/2009 M1.29 INCH JOHNSON NE CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

LANDSVORK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241244
SWODY1
SPC AC 241242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH
LARGE SCALE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH
VLYS. UPR LOW NOW OVER NE KS WILL CONTINUE ENE TO LK MI BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW SHOULD DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS POTENT
UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER THE CANADIAN RCKYS ACCELERATES SE INTO
THE DAKOTAS. FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
CNTRL MEXICO AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS FLOW...ATTM OVER DEEP S TX.
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD SHEAR E/NE INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
WED.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH KS UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE
E/SE ACROSS THE MID/LWR MS AND LWR OH VLYS. ELSEWHERE...ERN PART OF
WEAK W/E BOUNDARY OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO/S FL SHOULD RETURN
NWD TONIGHT/EARLY WED AS A WAVE FORMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF IN
RESPONSE TO S TX UPR IMPULSE.

...MID MS VLY...
MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH KS UPR LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD CONVECTION/STORMS FROM NRN MO AND CNTRL/SRN IA
EWD INTO PARTS OF IL/FAR SRN WI. INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS NOW
DIMINISHING OVER IA/MO MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT OVER CNTRL/NRN IL AS VORT LOBE NOW OVER
CNTRL KS/NW OK ROTATES NEWD. SPARSE MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LVL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD BAR ANY SVR THREAT.

...S TX...
DIURNAL HEATING OF MOISTURE-RICH...WEAKLY-CAPPED...AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE /SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
SCTD STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THIS AFTN.
WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT.

...CNTRL/S FL...
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED TODAY INVOF WEAK W-E FRONT...
WHERE SBCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO
MID LVL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUSTAINED SVR
THREAT TODAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE INTO/DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED AS WIND FIELD/WAA
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED GULF UPR IMPULSE. ALTHOUGH A
SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR IMPULSE IS NOT
EXPECTED...SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT FEATURE MAY BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN INDICATED IN OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. COUPLED WITH BACKED LOW-LVL
FLOW INVOF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS. THESE COULD POSE A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
AN ISOLD TORNADO EARLY WED.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/24/2009

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KSGX [241118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 241118
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
318 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE FREMONT CANYON 33.81N 117.71W
11/23/2009 M74.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

PEAK GUST MEASURED BETWEEN 2231 AND 2330 PST. GUSTS OVER
58 MPH BETWEEN 2031 PST AND 24/0130 PST. SUSTAINED WINDS
44-47 MPH BETWEEN 23/2130 AND 23/2330 PST.


&&

$$

RBALFO

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KSGX [241113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 241113
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
313 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1123 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 ENE IRVINE 33.69N 117.72W
11/23/2009 ORANGE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO HIGHWAY 133 JUST SOUTH OF PORTOLA
PARKWAY

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE FREMONT CANYON 33.81N 117.71W
11/23/2009 M74.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

PEAK GUST MEASURED AT 2330 PST. GUSTS OVER 58 MPH BETWEEN
2131 PST AND 22/0130 PST.

0123 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW SAN BERNARDINO 34.19N 117.35W
11/24/2009 M66.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

PALM AVENUE ELEMENTRAY SCHOOL MEASURED A PEAK GUST OF
66.4 MPH FROM THE EASTNORTHEAST AT 0123 PST.

0131 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RANCHO CUCAMONGA 34.12N 117.57W
11/24/2009 M52.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

PEAK WIND FROM WEST NORTHWEST OF 52 MPH

0204 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 NW SAN BERNARDINO 34.19N 117.35W
11/24/2009 SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CAR BLOWN OFF ROAD


&&

$$

RBALFO

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KCYS [240953]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 240953
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
253 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 45 NW LARAMIE 41.77N 106.20W
11/24/2009 M61 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AROUND 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH
AT ARLINGTON.


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240933
SWOD48
SPC AC 240932

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE WITH THE BUCKLING OF THE FLOW
OVER THE WRN STATES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
DECEMBER. MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DAY 6-8 RANGE /SUN-TUE
29 NOV-1 DEC/ INTRODUCE SIZABLE VARIANCE WITH PERHAPS THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC/MEANS OFFERING THE MOST CONSISTENCY. EXPECT THAT THE
MINOR SRN STREAM WAVE THAT EJECTS ACROSS TX LATE THIS WEEK WILL
PRIME THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN. THEN...AS A STRONG
UPR LOW DIGS OVER THE DESERT SW SAT-SUN...A STRONGER ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS. AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO PEAK AND
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY-TILTED OVER THE SRN PLNS ON THE 1
DEC...PERHAPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FLOW
WILL CO-EXIST FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GULF CST INTO THE
LWR MS VLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME...A HIGHER-END SVR OUTLOOK IS NOT
JUSTIFIED.

..RACY.. 11/24/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240715
SWODY3
SPC AC 240714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING...FEATURING A HIGH-AMPLITUDE POLAR JET AND MODERATELY
ACTIVE SRN STREAM. THE DEEP COLD TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE ERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY WILL MIGRATE TO THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH CP AIR MASS WILL PENETRATE S OF
CUBA AND DEEP INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR S FL/FL STRAITS
EARLY ON THURSDAY...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY.

MEANWHILE...A NEW UPR TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN THE PAC NW EARLY ON
THANKSGIVING AND THEN PROGRESS INLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 30 DEG C AND
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME
ACROSS CSTL ORE/WA DURING THE DAY.

FINALLY...A SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE SEEMS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NRN MEXICO AND ROTATE NEWD TOWARD THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
TYPICAL STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MOISTENING OVER THE MEXICAN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS THANKSGIVING DAY...A FEW OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP/MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VLY OF SWRN TX THURSDAY
NIGHT.

..RACY.. 11/24/2009

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KLOX [240615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 240615
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1015 PM PST MON NOV 23 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE POINT MUGU 34.12N 119.04W
11/23/2009 M58.00 MPH VENTURA CA MESONET

SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 29 MPH AT LAGUNA PEAK.

0907 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE SANTA PAULA 34.33N 119.03W
11/23/2009 M60.00 MPH VENTURA CA MESONET

NORTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...ELEVATION 2350
FEET.

0943 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE FILLMORE 34.37N 118.84W
11/23/2009 M57.00 MPH VENTURA CA OTHER FEDERAL

NORTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH AT WILEY
RIDGE...ELEVATION 1645 FEET.


&&

$$

HALL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240543
SWODY2
SPC AC 240542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLNS IS FCST TO OPEN INTO A WAVE
AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES...NOW OVER WCNTRL
ALBERTA...WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SUB-TROPICAL JET SUPPRESSED OVER CNTRL MEXICO AND THE
GULF BASIN WILL CARRY A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
FL.

INITIAL CDFNT TIED TO THE WEAKENING LEAD SYSTEM WILL BECOME
REINFORCED BY A NEW FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS NEW CP AIR
MASS WILL REACH THE OH/TN VLYS BY EARLY THURSDAY. TO THE S...AN OLD
FRONT SITUATED OVER CNTRL FL AND THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
VACILLATE AS SFC LOWS MIGRATE ENE ALONG IT. BY EARLY THURSDAY...THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD AS THE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE FL ATLC CST. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF BASIN AND PARTS OF PENINSULAR FL. THIS
WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CNTRL FL.
ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS VARIED ON INSTABILITY S OF THE
FRONT...PRIND THAT THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR...BUT ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG SRN FRINGES OF MORNING ACTIVITY AND/OR SEPARATELY IN THE FREE
WARM SECTOR AS THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE APCHS THE REGION. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLD AND BRIEF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH PERHAPS DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 11/24/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240519
SWODY1
SPC AC 240518

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
DAY ONE PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE MID/LOWER MO
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN SYSTEM WHILE ACCELERATING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION WHILE DIGGING SEWD
FROM ALBERTA INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MO WILL DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD
LAKE MI WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...AND SWD THROUGH S TX INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO.

...S TX...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE SAMPLED BY 24/00Z BRO SOUNDING IS LIKELY
REPRESENTATIVE OF EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF FRONT
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CAP. THIS WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...

SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN W-E ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BUT ANY HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 7-8 KM AGL. GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK LOW TO
MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD AND POOR LAPSE RATES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS LOW.

...MIDWEST...

DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
LEAD MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE POCKETS OF WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
ELEVATED TSTMS ALONG SURFACE LOW TRACK.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 11/24/2009

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