Sunday, September 18, 2011

KSHV [190357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 190357
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 PM TSTM WND DMG GILMER 32.73N 94.95W
09/18/2011 UPSHUR TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE. ROOF BLOWN OFF WEST OF GILMER.


&&

$$

09

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2193

ACUS11 KWNS 190338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190337 COR
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-190430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 853...854...

VALID 190337Z - 190430Z

CORRECTED FOR WATCH TYPE

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
853...854...CONTINUES.

NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE FROM SWRN AR...SWWD INTO CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PROPAGATING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT WITH A FEW SURGING SEGMENTS
ADVANCING UPWARDS OF 30KT TOWARD NWRN LA. LATEST RADAR DATA
SUGGESTS HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX...BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS SQUALL LINE IS SURGING A BIT AND HAS AN OVERALL
EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD. GIVEN ITS CURRENT SPEED IT SHOULD ADVANCE
TO A POSITION FROM NCNTRL LA...ARCING SWWD TO THE CWA BORDER OF
FWD/HGX BY 06Z.

..DARROW.. 09/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32199797 32879505 33849366 33389264 31659360 31189685
32199797

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KSHV [190337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 190337
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1037 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N QUITMAN 32.86N 95.44W
09/18/2011 WOOD TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF REMOVED FROM A HOUSE UNDER CONSTRUCTION ON COUNTY
ROAD 1416 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF LAKE QUITMAN.


&&

$$

09

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2193

ACUS11 KWNS 190332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190331
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-190430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 853...854...

VALID 190331Z - 190430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 853...854...CONTINUES.

NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE FROM SWRN AR...SWWD INTO CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PROPAGATING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT WITH A FEW SURGING SEGMENTS
ADVANCING UPWARDS OF 30KT TOWARD NWRN LA. LATEST RADAR DATA
SUGGESTS HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX...BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS SQUALL LINE IS SURGING A BIT AND HAS AN OVERALL
EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD. GIVEN ITS CURRENT SPEED IT SHOULD ADVANCE
TO A POSITION FROM NCNTRL LA...ARCING SWWD TO THE CWA BORDER OF
FWD/HGX BY 06Z.

..DARROW.. 09/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32199797 32879505 33849366 33389264 31659360 31189685
32199797

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KFWD [190046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 190046
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
744 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM HAIL 3 SW MCKINNEY 33.17N 96.69W
09/18/2011 E1.00 INCH COLLIN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS SPOTTER REPORT

$$

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KFWD [190039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 190039
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
739 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 PM HAIL MCKINNEY 33.20N 96.62W
09/18/2011 E1.25 INCH COLLIN TX AMATEUR RADIO

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190025
SWODY1
SPC AC 190023

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR SRN MO SWWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO CNTRL TX...

...SRN MO INTO CNTRL TX...
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST FROM MO INTO TX NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND UNDER AN EWD ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL PROFILES
ALOFT. WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION HAS LED TO MAINLY
CELLULAR STORM MODE...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. AREA 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH ONLY MODEST WLY FLOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST FEW KM.

GIVEN STORM MODE...AS WELL AS LACK OF STRONG FORCING...HAVE
DECREASED SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
REMAINING OVER THE ARKLATEX WHERE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING.
ELSEWHERE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER LOCALIZED AND
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 09/19/2011

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KFWD [190015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 190015
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL PROSPER 33.23N 96.82W
09/18/2011 E1.00 INCH COLLIN TX AMATEUR RADIO

$$

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KFWD [190013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 190013
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 PM TSTM WND DMG BONHAM 33.58N 96.18W
09/18/2011 FANNIN TX AMATEUR RADIO

POWER LINES DOWN IN BONHAM

$$

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KSHV [190009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 190009
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0651 PM HAIL 1 N BROKEN BOW 34.04N 94.74W
09/18/2011 E1.75 INCH MCCURTAIN OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED ONE MILE NORTH OF BROKEN BOW.


&&

$$

25

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KSGF [190000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 190000
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL WASHBURN 36.59N 93.97W
09/18/2011 E1.00 INCH BARRY MO PUBLIC

LOCAL CHURCH REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

MGRIFFIN

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KFWD [182350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 182350
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL VAN ALSTYNE 33.42N 96.58W
09/18/2011 E1.00 INCH GRAYSON TX AMATEUR RADIO

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2191

ACUS11 KWNS 182349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182348
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-190045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 852...854...

VALID 182348Z - 190045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
852...854...CONTINUES.

QUALITY AIR MASS HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...NWD
INTO CNTRL AR AHEAD OF SLOWLY CONGEALING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION AND
WITH MEAN WIND VECTORS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT IT/S NOT APPARENT
THAT FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS OR BOWS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. FOR THIS REASON IT WOULD SEEM LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DARROW.. 09/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36989510 36989294 35339428 35329235 33609382 33629571
33839554 33839757 36989510

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KEWX [182329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 182329
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HAIL BEE CAVE 30.31N 97.96W
09/18/2011 E0.88 INCH TRAVIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100308

$$

JPB

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KFWD [182324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 182324
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HAIL 2 ENE HOWE 33.51N 96.59W
09/18/2011 E1.00 INCH GRAYSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS ONE INCH HAIL

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2190

ACUS11 KWNS 182318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182318
TXZ000-190015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182318Z - 190015Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL TX. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED...BUT A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.

RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS SLOWLY
PROPAGATING SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX. THESE TSTMS ARE MOVING INTO AN
UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FURTHER SWD PROPAGATION. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF RATHER WEAK 0-6 KM FLOW...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH
NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS YIELDING MODEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR /NEAR
30 KTS PER 23Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGEST FORCED ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE SITUATED WELL N OF THE REGION...AND
TSTMS MOVING OFF THE SFC COLD FRONT...PROPAGATION WILL PRIMARILY BE
COLD-POOL DRIVEN AND WILL ONLY YIELD A LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT.
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS.. 09/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON 29459833 29239875 29139948 29170029 29430071 29830080
30170060 30230011 30229940 30339891 30409849 30389802
30029784 29459833

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KSGF [182306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 182306
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W WASHBURN 36.59N 93.98W
09/18/2011 BARRY MO EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES REPORTED DOWN ON HWY 90 WEST OF WASHBURN. LOCATION
APPROXIMATE. NO TREES BLOCKING THE ROAD. NO DAMAGE IN
TOWN. A NUMBER OF REPORTS FROM RURAL FIRE AND THE HIGHWAY
PATROL INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO IN THIS AREA.


&&

$$

DSA

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KOUN [182252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 182252
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
552 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL BROWN 34.08N 96.48W
09/18/2011 E1.00 INCH BRYAN OK PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 854

WWUS20 KWNS 182243
SEL4
SPC WW 182243
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-190600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 545 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF PARIS
TEXAS TO 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 852...WW 853...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL TROUGH ACTS ON A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT FROM E-CNTRL OK INTO S-CNTRL AR WILL ENHANCE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SETUP SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25020.


...MEAD

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KFWD [182239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 182239
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL POTTSBORO 33.75N 96.67W
09/18/2011 E0.88 INCH GRAYSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKEL SIZE HAIL

$$

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KFWD [182235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 182235
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HAIL 2 W RUCKER 32.17N 98.63W
09/18/2011 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE TX AMATEUR RADIO

NICKEL SIZE HAIL 3 S OF GORMAN

$$

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KSHV [182228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 182228
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
528 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0522 PM HAIL 10 W NASHVILLE 33.94N 94.03W
09/18/2011 E1.75 INCH HOWARD AR EMERGENCY MNGR

GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 371 AND 26.


&&

$$

25

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KOUN [182223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 182223
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
523 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL 7 SSW KINGSTON 33.91N 96.77W
09/18/2011 E1.00 INCH MARSHALL OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KSHV [182216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 182216
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
516 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0401 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW SHREVEPORT 32.51N 93.82W
09/18/2011 CADDO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

OLD MOORINGSPORT ROAD AND EDS BLVD, TWO TREES DOWN.


&&

$$

25

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KFWD [182159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 182159
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
459 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM HAIL 6 E GAINESVILLE 33.63N 97.05W
09/18/2011 E1.75 INCH COOKE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN OAK RIDGE

$$

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KMLB [182152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 182152
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
551 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW DAYTONA BEACH 29.28N 81.06W
09/18/2011 M3.42 INCH VOLUSIA FL MESONET

ORMOND BEACH POLICE DEPT OBSERVED 3.42 INCHES OF RAIN SO
FAR TODAY.

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW DAYTONA BEACH 29.29N 81.06W
09/18/2011 M3.00 INCH VOLUSIA FL MESONET

ORMOND BEACH CITY HALL OBSERVED 3.00 INCHES OF RAIN SO
FAR TODAY.

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW HOLLY HILL 29.29N 81.07W
09/18/2011 M2.56 INCH VOLUSIA FL MESONET

ORMOND BEACH FIRE STATION NO. 93 OBSERVED 2.56 INCHES OF
RAIN SO FAR TODAY.

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW HOLLY HILL 29.29N 81.07W
09/18/2011 M2.82 INCH VOLUSIA FL MESONET

ORMOND BEACH WASTEWATER PLANT NORTH OBSERVED 2.82 INCHES
OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.

0530 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE DAYTONA BEACH 29.24N 81.02W
09/18/2011 M3.68 INCH VOLUSIA FL MESONET

PUBLIC OBSERVED 3.68 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.


&&

$$

JRC

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KFWD [182147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 182147
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
447 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM HAIL CALLISBURG 33.70N 97.02W
09/18/2011 E0.88 INCH COOKE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CALLISBURG

$$

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KFWD [182143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 182143
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
442 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM HAIL 3 E GAINESVILLE 33.63N 97.10W
09/18/2011 E0.75 INCH COOKE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OAK RIDGE

$$

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KMLB [182113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 182113
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
513 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 N ORLANDO INTERNATION 28.44N 81.32W
09/18/2011 ORANGE FL PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED NEAR SEMORAN BLVD JUST NORTH OF
ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.


&&

$$

JRC

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 853

WWUS20 KWNS 182107
SEL3
SPC WW 182107
TXZ000-190400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SHERMAN TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JUNCTION
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 852...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH THROUGH
EARLY EVE IN WW AREA...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MAIN NE-SW
WIND SHIFT LINE NOW MOVING SE TOWARD FWD. MORE WDLY SCTD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED SWWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE BIG BEND
REGION...AND ISOLD STRONG STORMS MAY PERSIST IN AREA NEAR CRS.
WHILE WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN MODEST...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
GLANCING INFLUENCE OK VORT LOBE WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND. ACTIVITY
NEAR FWD MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT FORWARD PROPAGATES E OR
SEWD LATER THIS EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2189

ACUS11 KWNS 182100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182059
OKZ000-TXZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 182059Z - 182130Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX
DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SVR STORMS POSING A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW IS LIKELY.

AT 20Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD FROM NERN OK INTO PORTIONS
OF CNTRL TX. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY FLAT CU
FIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
TOWERING CUMULUS NEAR THE RED RIVER. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
SLOWLY DESTABILIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON...UPPER VORT LOBE IS
SITUATED IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE REGION...LEADING TO NEGLIGIBLE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THUS...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN ATTM DURING THE SHORT TERM.
NEVERTHELESS...ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS...POSING A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AREA MAY REQUIRE A WW
DURING THE NEXT HR.

..GARNER.. 09/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31700069 33189925 33989738 33939504 32609508 30859835
30730024 31700069

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KTOP [182057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 182057
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 E CARBONDALE 38.82N 95.67W
09/18/2011 OSAGE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL REPORTED NEAR CARBONDALE LAKE


&&

$$

BYRNE

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 852

WWUS20 KWNS 182037
SEL2
SPC WW 182037
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-190400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONETT MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT OUR OR
SO IN CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING CNTRL
OK...IN RESPONSE TO BOTH SFC HEATING AND ASCENT WITH LEADING EDGE OF
APPROACHING VORT LOBE IN LARGER SCALE UPR TROUGH. OBSERVED AND FCST
WIND FIELDS SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS THAT
LIKELY WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. WITH SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND
RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND.
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR ERN OK/WRN AR...WHERE NEAR-SFC
FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED BY FRICTION. BUT ABSENCE OF
BETTER-DEFINED SFC WAVE...OPEN NATURE OF UPR TROUGH...AND MODEST LOW
LVL WINDS SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 182001
SWODY1
SPC AC 181959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO THE
WRN OZARKS...

...CENTRAL TX TO PARTS OF SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SLIGHT RISK AND SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THE CONTINUED ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD FRONT...A 10-30 MILE WIDE ZONE HAS BEEN TRIMMED FROM THE WRN
EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NERN TX WARRANTS THE INCLUSION OF
THIS AREA TO THE SLIGHT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER OUTLOOK
ISSUANCES GIVEN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWING THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J
PER KG/. IN ADDITION TO THE DESTABILIZATION...AN INCREASE IN
MIDLEVEL WINDS ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW
ENTERING NWRN OK...WILL SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS MIDLEVEL FEATURE SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE
DETAILS FOR ERN OK/WRN AR INTO SWRN MO ARE AVAILABLE IN A RECENTLY
ISSUED SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /#2188/. THE 30 PERCENT WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO INDICATE THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN EXTENDED NEWD INTO NERN
OK/NWRN AR AND SWRN MO GIVEN THAT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
NERN TX TO SWRN MO WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED SOME DUE TO
BACKED SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A FOCUSED SURFACE LOW
OVER ERN OK SUPPORTING A MORE PERSISTENT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
ISALLOBARICALLY AND POSITIVE ORIENTATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 09/18/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MULTI-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLNS STATES WILL CONTINUE E INTO
THE MS VLY EARLY MON AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE RCKYS/GRT BASIN. TWO
IDENTIFIABLE VORT LOBES IN THE SRN PART OF THE TROUGH...ONE NOW OVER
NW OK/S CNTRL KS AND THE OTHER NOW NEAR FWD...LIKELY WILL AFFECT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE S CNTRL U.S.

AT THE SFC...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL KS SSW INTO W CNTRL TX.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL...HOWEVER...BE COMPROMISED BY THE
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SEVERAL WEAK...SIMILARLY-ORIENTED WIND SHIFT
LINES...CONFLUENCE ZONES...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX.

...CNTRL TX TO WRN OZARKS THIS AFTN/EVE...
SCTD BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN LOW LVL
WAA ZONE WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MO SSW TO THE ARKLATEX
TODAY. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY
THROUGH THE AFTN AND SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SVR /GIVEN
COMPARATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR/...DESPITE SOME LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER SRN SECTIONS PROVIDED BY THE N TX UPR
IMPULSE.

FARTHER W...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...WITH PW AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S
F FROM CNTRL TX NE INTO SE KS/FAR SW MO...WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG
HEATING WILL OCCUR. COUPLED WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF MINUS 9 TO MINUS
11 C IN CORE OF UPR TROUGH...EXPECT SBCAPE TO RANGE FROM 1500 TO
2500 J/KG BY MID AFTN FROM SW MO TO CNTRL TX.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN ALONG AN ARC EXTENDING
FROM SE KS/SW MO THROUGH ERN OK INTO N CNTRL TX AS OK/KS VORT LOBE
CONTINUES ESEWD. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
BAND OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SW MO THROUGH ERN OK
INTO CNTRL AND NE TX BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE...RELATIVELY
MODEST WIND FIELD /20-25 KT SW FLOW AT 850 MB VEERING TO 30 KT WLY
WINDS AT 500 MB/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WINDS THE MAIN SVR THREAT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MERGE INTO ONE
OR TWO LARGER BANDS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY IN
ERN OK/NERN TX.

THE OK STORMS SHOULD MOVE E INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX THIS
EVE...WHERE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS WILL EXIST. FARTHER
SW...THE ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL/N TX...MEANWHILE...SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE
UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT. TOGETHER WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SVR
THREAT BY MID TO LATE EVE.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2188

ACUS11 KWNS 181946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181945
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-182145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181945Z - 182145Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE A WATCH...POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

WITHIN LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED LOBE OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY IS NOW
SPREADING EAST OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION TOWARD THE
OZARKS. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHERE
DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING...AND WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED ON THE
NOSE OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL FAIRLY MODEST...BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SOME STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW COULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
OR TWO.

..KERR.. 09/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35559633 36519598 37269555 37289425 36479369 35079405
34089488 34409608 35559633

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KCRP [181852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 181852
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
151 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM TORNADO 11 NE ALICE 27.86N 97.94W
09/17/2011 JIM WELLS TX NWS STORM SURVEY

A NWS SURVEY CONCLUDED AN EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 3
MILES EAST OF ALFRED ALONG CR44 ON THE JIM WELLS/NUECES
COUNTY LINE. THE TORADO WAS APPROXIMATELY 100 YARDS WIDE
AND WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 2 MILES. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 90 MPH. A HOUSE WAS DAMAGED AND LOST PART OF
ITS ROOF. AN OUTDOOR STORAGE SHED WAS DESTROYED AND MANY
MESQUITE TREES LOST LARGE LIMBS OR WERE SNAPPED AT THEIR
BASE.


&&

$$

JMETZ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181721
SWODY2
SPC AC 181720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE FULL-LATITUDE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES E OF THE MS VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRONGER MORE COMPACT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS MT INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS...ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH
AND SERN TX. A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND
DEEPEN OVER SRN MANITOBA/ND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD/SEWD FROM NRN PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SERN MT INTO SRN ND/NRN SD...
A STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS
DURING THE PERIOD. INTENSE DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MAXIMUM SBCAPE OF 250-500 J PER
KG/. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A WELL-MIXED PBL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHERE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
MODELS MAINTAIN THESE SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FORECAST DETAILS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SUCH THAT STRONG/
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY WIND THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SERN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AT NIGHT. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...AND THUS THIS
OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.

...OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE EWD MOVING
COLD FRONT WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO INHIBIT
DIABATIC HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP OVER LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MLCAPE COULD
INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...MODEST LAPSE RATES WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT INTENSITIES.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR BUT WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND
MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 09/18/2011

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KJAX [181722]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181722
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
121 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0117 PM HIGH SURF FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/18/2011 FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FLAGLER COUNTY SKYWARN SPOTTERS ADVISE THAT THE FLAGLER
BEACH PIER HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH SURF WITH AN
AVERAGE HEIGHT OF 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS REPORTED.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181632
SWODY1
SPC AC 181630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX NE INTO THE WRN
OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MULTI-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLNS STATES WILL CONTINUE E INTO
THE MS VLY EARLY MON AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE RCKYS/GRT BASIN. TWO
IDENTIFIABLE VORT LOBES IN THE SRN PART OF THE TROUGH...ONE NOW OVER
NW OK/S CNTRL KS AND THE OTHER NOW NEAR FWD...LIKELY WILL AFFECT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE S CNTRL U.S.

AT THE SFC...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL KS SSW INTO W CNTRL TX.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL...HOWEVER...BE COMPROMISED BY THE
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SEVERAL WEAK...SIMILARLY-ORIENTED WIND SHIFT
LINES...CONFLUENCE ZONES...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX.

...CNTRL TX TO WRN OZARKS THIS AFTN/EVE...
SCTD BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN LOW LVL
WAA ZONE WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MO SSW TO THE ARKLATEX
TODAY. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY
THROUGH THE AFTN AND SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SVR /GIVEN
COMPARATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR/...DESPITE SOME LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER SRN SECTIONS PROVIDED BY THE N TX UPR
IMPULSE.

FARTHER W...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...WITH PW AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S
F FROM CNTRL TX NE INTO SE KS/FAR SW MO...WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG
HEATING WILL OCCUR. COUPLED WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF MINUS 9 TO MINUS
11 C IN CORE OF UPR TROUGH...EXPECT SBCAPE TO RANGE FROM 1500 TO
2500 J/KG BY MID AFTN FROM SW MO TO CNTRL TX.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN ALONG AN ARC EXTENDING
FROM SE KS/SW MO THROUGH ERN OK INTO N CNTRL TX AS OK/KS VORT LOBE
CONTINUES ESEWD. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
BAND OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SW MO THROUGH ERN OK
INTO CNTRL AND NE TX BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE...RELATIVELY
MODEST WIND FIELD /20-25 KT SW FLOW AT 850 MB VEERING TO 30 KT WLY
WINDS AT 500 MB/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WINDS THE MAIN SVR THREAT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MERGE INTO ONE
OR TWO LARGER BANDS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY IN
ERN OK/NERN TX.

THE OK STORMS SHOULD MOVE E INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX THIS
EVE...WHERE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS WILL EXIST. FARTHER
SW...THE ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL/N TX...MEANWHILE...SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE
UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT. TOGETHER WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SVR
THREAT BY MID TO LATE EVE.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 09/18/2011

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KTOP [181422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181422
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
922 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 AM HEAVY RAIN CHAPMAN 38.97N 97.02W
09/18/2011 M2.15 INCH DICKINSON KS CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [181422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181422
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN MELVERN 38.51N 95.64W
09/18/2011 M2.05 INCH OSAGE KS CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [181251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181251
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
751 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM HEAVY RAIN ENTERPRISE 38.90N 97.12W
09/18/2011 M2.33 INCH DICKINSON KS CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [181250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181250
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
750 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM HEAVY RAIN WHITE CITY 38.80N 96.74W
09/18/2011 M2.15 INCH MORRIS KS CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

JB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181247
SWODY1
SPC AC 181245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN EXTREME SW MO/NW AR SWWD TO
CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
DAYBREAK WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FULL-LATITUDE UPR TROUGH
SITUATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES.
STRONGEST OF SUCH DISTURBANCES WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE LWR/MID-MS RVR VLY REGION BY
LATE TONIGHT. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1011 MB LOW SW OF KICT WITH
A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT SEWD INTO THE LWR MS RVR VLY. A CDFNT
WAS GAINING STRENGTH ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL. THE LOW WILL
MIGRATE NEWD INTO ERN KS THIS AFTN WHILE WITH A WRMFNT DEVELOPING
ENE TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE CDFNT WILL SWEEP ESE INTO SW MO...ERN OK
AND CNTRL TX BY SUNSET...AND THE LWR OH VLY...CNTRL AR...TX HILL
COUNTRY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS...SOME
PSBLY SVR THIS AFTN/EVE.

...EXTREME SW MO/NW AR SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM ERN
PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MS VLY SWWD INTO N TX. ACTIVITY
APPEARS LARGELY TIED TO MID/LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN A
BROAD SWLY H85-H7 JET AXIS...FAVORING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT LOCATED JUST N OF THE RED RVR
VLY/ARKLATEX REGIONS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS ENE
TOWARD THE MID/LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND REMAIN SUB-SVR.

TO THE W...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAVORABLY MOIST AHEAD OF THE APCHG
CDFNT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LWR-MID 60S FROM EXTREME SW MO SWWD
INTO CNTRL TX. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES 7-7.5 DEG C PER KM/COOLING MID-LVL
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE CDFNT THIS AFTN. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PASS LARGELY
N OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/CYCLONIC
CURVATURE WILL REACH AS FAR S AS NRN/CNTRL TX AND AID IN MID TO LATE
AFTN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SW MO...ERN OK INTO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX.

WLY H5 FLOW OF 30-35 KTS/STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE RED RVR VLY WHERE MULTICELL STORMS MAY
ACHIEVE BRIEF SUPERCELL CHARACTER. DESPITE WEAKER FLOW FARTHER
S...MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT PULSE
STG-SVR MULTICELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS/LINEAR
SEGMENTS.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS AMID
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS THIS EVE. FARTHER S...STORMS
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING
CDFNT. IN ALL AREAS...THE SVR THREATS WILL DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
EVENING.

..RACY/COHEN.. 09/18/2011

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KOUN [181039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOUN 181039
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL AMORITA 36.92N 98.29W
09/17/2011 E1.00 INCH ALFALFA OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED BY CHEROKEE PD

0450 PM HAIL 4 SE WOODWARD 36.39N 99.34W
09/17/2011 E1.00 INCH WOODWARD OK PUBLIC

0502 PM HAIL 1 S RETROP 35.16N 99.37W
09/17/2011 E1.25 INCH BECKHAM OK AMATEUR RADIO

0557 PM TORNADO 10 W MEDFORD 36.81N 97.91W
09/17/2011 GRANT OK TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO SPOTTED ONE MILE WEST OF REDHILL ROAD ALONG STATE
HIGHWAY 11. GRANT COUNTY SPOTTER REPORT RELAYED BY
GARFIELD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.74W
09/17/2011 M58.00 MPH TILLMAN OK MESONET

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.74W
09/17/2011 M66.00 MPH TILLMAN OK MESONET

0615 PM TSTM WND GST GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.69W
09/17/2011 E65.00 MPH TILLMAN OK PUBLIC

0615 PM HAIL GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.69W
09/17/2011 E2.00 INCH TILLMAN OK PUBLIC

0655 PM TSTM WND GST BURKBURNETT 34.08N 98.56W
09/17/2011 E70.00 MPH WICHITA TX CO-OP OBSERVER

NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER POLES DOWN

0710 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE BLACKWELL 36.75N 97.25W
09/17/2011 M62.00 MPH KAY OK MESONET

0710 PM TSTM WND GST SHEPPARD AFB 33.98N 98.50W
09/17/2011 M64.00 MPH WICHITA TX ASOS

0715 PM TSTM WND GST PONCA CITY 36.71N 97.09W
09/17/2011 M68.00 MPH KAY OK ASOS

0725 PM HAIL FAIRVIEW 36.27N 98.48W
09/17/2011 E2.00 INCH MAJOR OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED BY FAIRVIEW PD

0735 PM HAIL CHARLIE 34.10N 98.32W
09/17/2011 E1.00 INCH CLAY TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0839 PM HAIL DRUMMOND 36.30N 98.04W
09/17/2011 E1.25 INCH GARFIELD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0913 PM HAIL 4 SSE ENID 36.35N 97.85W
09/17/2011 E1.75 INCH GARFIELD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY VANCE AFB


&&

$$

BURKE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180825
SWOD48
SPC AC 180825

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4 /WEDNESDAY/ AND DAY 5 /THURSDAY/...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE PROVIDE SIMILAR LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE
MS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS
QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN US. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

DAY 6 /FRIDAY/ THROUGH DAY 8 /SUNDAY/...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
INCREASING SPREAD IN PREDICTIONS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND SOME GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND OTHER ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DEVELOP A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER PARTS OF THE ERN STATES...BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE SEVERE THREAT OWING TO THE LARGE VARIANCE
IN THE PREDICTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION.

..WEISS.. 09/18/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180650
SWODY3
SPC AC 180649

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... AN
OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MN...WITH A COLD FRONT
ARCING SWD FROM THE LOW AND PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...WI AREA...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD DURING THE PERIOD. MOISTURE RETURN INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED...WITH MODELS INDICATING A
NARROW BAND OF SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD EWD/NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS /INCLUDING LINE SEGMENTS/
TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF UPPER MI INTO
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SWD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING STORMS
FORMING AS FAR SOUTH AS ERN IA/NWRN IL. STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO VEER WITH HEIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
WEAK INSTABILITY.

..WEISS.. 09/18/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180537
SWODY2
SPC AC 180536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INDICATING FULL-LATITUDE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. A STRONGER MORE COMPACT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH AND SERN TX. A SECOND SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER ND DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD/SEWD ACROSS
THE NRN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.

...SERN MT INTO SRN ND/NRN SD...
A STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING
THE PERIOD. INTENSE DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MAXIMUM SBCAPE OF 250-500 J PER
KG/. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A WELL-MIXED PBL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHERE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY WIND THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SERN MT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AT NIGHT.
MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT
ATTM.

...OH VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE EWD MOVING
COLD FRONT WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO INHIBIT
DIABATIC HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP OVER LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MLCAPE MAY
INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG...HOWEVER MODEST LAPSE RATES WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT INTENSITY. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND MINIMAL VERTICAL
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..WEISS.. 09/18/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180531
SWODY1
SPC AC 180529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO INTO CNTRL
TX...

...SERN KS/SWRN MO TO CNTRL TX...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST AT
ROUGHLY 30KT WHICH WOULD PLACE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE KS/MO
BORDER...SSWWD INTO CNTRL TX BY 18Z. ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY LAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY UP TO 100MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON THUS
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE SLGT RISK WARM SECTOR AS
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO FULLY DESTABILIZE. GIVEN THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

PRIOR TO THIS EVOLUTION SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS KS/MO...SWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX. THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT THE
EWD EXTENT OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY TO THAT REGION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO
INTO CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE MAY
EVOLVE BY 21Z ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AS
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. EVEN
SO...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/18/2011

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 851

WWUS20 KWNS 180403
SEL1
SPC WW 180403
OKZ000-TXZ000-180400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 851 ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 850

WWUS20 KWNS 180403
SEL0
SPC WW 180403
KSZ000-OKZ000-180400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 850 ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
OKLAHOMA

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KICT [180402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180402
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1101 PM HAIL 7 N INMAN 38.33N 97.77W
09/17/2011 E0.75 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RBL

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