Monday, October 17, 2011

KMQT [180102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 180102
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
902 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W TROWBRIDGE PARK 46.56N 87.46W
10/15/2011 MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN ON PROPERTY AS A RESULT OF HIGH
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT.


&&

$$

JMWIX

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180059
SWODY1
SPC AC 180057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX/AR...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX...
WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...AN EMBEDDED/SOUTHEAST-DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM
COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM THIS EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL STEADILY CONGEAL AND
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD CONVECTIVE LINE WHILE SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE
RATE/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS SAMPLED PER THE 00Z NORMAN
OBSERVED SOUNDING...SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THIS EVENING. STORM
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY WANE BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES/STORMS ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED INFLOW WHILE
OTHERWISE BEING UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

...FAR SOUTH FL...
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...BUT THE
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM KEY WEST REFLECTS MODERATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. WHILE ANY SUCH POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...WILL MAINTAIN 2 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREAT TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FL
KEYS/STRAITS.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2011

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KTSA [180050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 180050
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
750 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM HAIL BRISTOW 35.83N 96.39W
10/17/2011 E0.75 INCH CREEK OK CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

PBS

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KOUN [180042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 180042
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
742 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM HAIL 1 N HOLDENVILLE 35.10N 96.40W
10/17/2011 E1.75 INCH HUGHES OK PUBLIC

DELAYED REPORT FROM MOTORIST NORTH OF HOLDENVILLE


&&

$$

MA

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KLUB [180024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 180024
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
724 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0722 PM WILDFIRE 5 NW POST 33.24N 101.44W
10/17/2011 U0 ACRE GARZA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

WILDFIRE REPORTED BETWEEN CR 220 AND HWY 380 ALONG THE
SLATON HWY. ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HEAVY SMOKE. SIZE
UNKNOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100233

$$

AMP

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KOUN [180021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 180021
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL SULPHUR 34.51N 96.98W
10/17/2011 E1.00 INCH MURRAY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED


&&

$$

MA

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KLUB [180017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 180017
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
716 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM WILDFIRE 8 E PLAINS 33.19N 102.69W
10/17/2011 U0 ACRE YOAKUM TX EMERGENCY MNGR

WILDFIRE TRIGGERED FROM DOWNED POWER LINES FROM STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. SIZE UNKNOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100232

$$

AMP

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KLUB [180014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 180014
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
714 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM WILDFIRE 7 NNW SHALLOWATER 33.78N 102.04W
10/17/2011 U0 ACRE LUBBOCK TX NWS EMPLOYEE

WILDFIRE ROUGHLY 0.5 MILE EAST OF CR 5200 AND 179.
UNKNOWN ACREAGE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100231

$$

MCZ

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KOUN [180014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 180014
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
714 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL DAVIS 34.50N 97.12W
10/17/2011 E1.00 INCH MURRAY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

MA

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KLUB [172358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172358
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
658 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SHALLOWATER 33.69N 101.99W
10/17/2011 LUBBOCK TX NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORT OF ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE OFF OF 6TH STREET IN
SHALLOWATER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100230

$$

AMP

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KLUB [172356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172356
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
656 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE SLATON 33.46N 101.62W
10/17/2011 M71 MPH LUBBOCK TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100229

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172355
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
655 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW WOLFFORTH 33.43N 102.05W
10/17/2011 M60 MPH LUBBOCK TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100228

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172353
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
653 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE POST 33.20N 101.37W
10/17/2011 M63 MPH GARZA TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100227

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172344
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 W IDALOU 33.66N 101.75W
10/17/2011 LUBBOCK TX TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN NEXT TO HWY 114. REPORTED BY NWS
VOLUNTEER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100226

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172339
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE SLATON 33.46N 101.62W
10/17/2011 M65 MPH LUBBOCK TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100225

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172336
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BROWNFIELD 33.18N 102.27W
10/17/2011 TERRY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN BROWNFIELD FROM STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS 60 MPH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100224

$$

AMP

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KLUB [172335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172335
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/17/2011 LUBBOCK TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY OF LUBBOCK
FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100223

$$

AMP

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KLUB [172304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172304
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 NE LUBBOCK 33.64N 101.80W
10/17/2011 LUBBOCK TX TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO THE AN AIRPORT HANGER AND THE ROOF OF THE
FIRE DEPT AT THE AIRPORT FROM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100222

$$

AMP

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KLUB [172302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172302
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/17/2011 LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

POWER LINES DOWN AT BROADWAY AND AVENUE J. TIME
ESTIMATED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100221

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172254
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
554 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE MORTON 33.73N 102.74W
10/17/2011 M60 MPH COCHRAN TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100220

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172253
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
553 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LUBBOCK 33.58N 101.88W
10/17/2011 M74 MPH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WIND GUST TO 74 MPH AT KCBD TV.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100219

$$

AMP

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KLUB [172251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172251
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM NON-TSTM WND GST REESE CENTER 33.59N 102.03W
10/17/2011 M58 MPH LUBBOCK TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100218

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172247
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE LUBBOCK 33.64N 101.80W
10/17/2011 M63 MPH LUBBOCK TX ASOS

DENSE BLOWING DUST ALSO.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100217

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172241
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW ANTON 33.73N 102.20W
10/17/2011 M69 MPH HOCKLEY TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100216

$$

MCZ

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KMQT [172241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 172241
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
641 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAURIUM 47.24N 88.44W
10/15/2011 HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...INCLUDING TWO 24-INCH DIAMETER TREES NEXT TO
THE CALUMET HIGH SCHOOL. EXACT TIME OF EVENTS
UNKNOWN...ESTIMATED TIME BASED ON HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AT
WEATHER STATION PCLM4.


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KLUB [172238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172238
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW ANTON 33.73N 102.20W
10/17/2011 M69 MPH HOCKLEY TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100215

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172236
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE ABERNATHY 33.86N 101.76W
10/17/2011 M58 MPH HALE TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100214

$$

MCZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2258

ACUS11 KWNS 172224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172223
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-180030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...N-CNTRL TX...FAR NWRN AR/SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172223Z - 180030Z

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG AND BEHIND
SHARP SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY/MID-EVENING. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE
PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE BY 00Z IS 40 PERCENT.

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE
OK/KS/MO BORDER AREA BISECTING OK TO A TRIPLE-POINT LOW JUST E OF
SPS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE 50S...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
CENTERED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL TRACK SEWD INTO N-CNTRL TX
THIS EVENING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS INITIATION BY 00Z AND
LIKELY INCREASING RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE TOWARDS 03Z. HOWEVER...A WARM
SECTOR CAPPING INVERSION NOTED IN ACARS DATA INVOF DFW AND
ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE FORCING SUGGEST TSTM UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY CONFINED SW OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 6 KM AGL PER NORMAN
AND TULSA VWP DATA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. THE RAPID EVOLUTION TO A CLUSTER AND PERHAPS
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INFERS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HAIL THREAT WOULD
PEAK EARLY AND BECOME MARGINAL WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 10/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34329792 35679662 36999491 37149456 37119403 36839368
36359382 34189517 32809613 32539696 32549769 32709840
33209844 34329792

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KMQT [172221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 172221
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
621 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG EAGLE RIVER 47.42N 88.30W
10/17/2011 KEWEENAW MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN DUE TO HIGH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR EAGLE RIVER...ACROSS US-41
NEAR LAKE MEDORA...AND 5 MILE POINT ROAD NEAR ALLOUEZ.
EXACT TIME OF EVENTS UNKNOWN...ESTIMATED TIME BASED ON
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AT WEATHER STATION PCLM4.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CALUMET 47.25N 88.45W
10/17/2011 HOUGHTON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

STATE POLICE REPORTED TREES DOWN ACROSS
COUNTY...INCLUDING TREES ON POWER LINES...DUE TO HIGH
WINDS OVERNIGHT. DID NOT GIVE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. EXACT
TIME OF EVENTS UNKNOWN...ESTIMATED TIME BASED ON HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS AT WEATHER STATION PCLM4.


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KLUB [172220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172220
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PLAINVIEW 34.19N 101.72W
10/17/2011 M59 MPH HALE TX BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED AT THE CONVENANT HOSPITAL BY KCBD WEATHER
STATION. TIME ESTIMATED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100213

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172210
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE AMHERST 34.02N 102.40W
10/17/2011 M68 MPH LAMB TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100212

$$

MCZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2257

ACUS11 KWNS 172203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172203
FLZ000-172300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...UPR FL KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172203Z - 172300Z

AREA OF CONVECTION 25 ESE OF MTH MAY POSE A BRIEF THREAT FOR A
WATERSPOUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS WELL AS A TORNADO IF
ACTIVITY CAN MOVE ACROSS THE UPR FL KEYS. OVERALL SVR WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

HI-RES KBYX RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED ROUGHLY 25 ESE OF MTH AT 2150Z. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS FOR THE MOST PART REMAINED STATIONARY DURING THE LAST HR...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE NNE OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY. LATEST VWP
FROM BYX SHOWS E-NELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SLY AT 3 KM
AGL...RESULTING IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE AND 0-1 KM SRH
VALUES FROM 100-200 M2 S-2. THIS SHEAR PROFILE APPEARS TO BE AIDING
IN RELATIVELY STRONG UPDRAFT ROTATION IN THE SRN MOST CELL...DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES
AOB 500 J PER KG/. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR...A SHORT TERM THREAT
FOR A WATERSPOUT WILL EXIST WITH THIS CONVECTION...AS WELL AS A
TORNADO IF STORMS CAN MOVE ACROSS THE UPR KEYS. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 10/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 24718026 24408099 24648123 24858112 25118048 24718026

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KLUB [172202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172202
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
502 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG FRIONA 34.64N 102.72W
10/17/2011 PARMER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN IN THE CITY. DUSTSTORM
ALSO REPORTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100211

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLUB 172158
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
458 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HIGH SUST WINDS DIMMITT 34.55N 102.31W
10/17/2011 E60 MPH CASTRO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DUSTSTORM WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 0.25 MILE.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100209

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172157
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
457 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N HART 34.43N 102.11W
10/17/2011 M66 MPH CASTRO TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WTM SITE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100210

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172156
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
456 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HIGH SUST WINDS DIMMITT 34.55N 102.31W
10/17/2011 E60 MPH CASTRO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DUSTSTORM WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 4 MILE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100209

$$

MCZ

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KLUB [172156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 172156
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
456 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE FRIONA 34.66N 102.70W
10/17/2011 M71 MPH PARMER TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100208

$$

MCZ

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KPUB [172142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 172142
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW CLIMAX 39.37N 106.18W
10/17/2011 M4.0 INCH LAKE CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL REPORT FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN CLIMAX.

1239 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALAMOSA 37.47N 105.87W
10/17/2011 M47.00 MPH ALAMOSA CO ASOS

ALAMOSA ASOS.

0142 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
10/17/2011 M51.00 MPH BACA CO ASOS

SPRINGFIELD ASOS.

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COLORADO SPRINGS 38.83N 104.82W
10/17/2011 M48.00 MPH EL PASO CO ASOS

COLORADO SPRINGS ASOS.

0302 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PUEBLO 38.27N 104.61W
10/17/2011 M55.00 MPH PUEBLO CO ASOS

PUEBLO ASOS.


&&

$$

LW

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KPUB [172141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 172141
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1239 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALAMOSA 37.47N 105.87W
10/17/2011 M47.00 MPH ALAMOSA CO ASOS

ALAMOSA ASOS.

0142 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
10/17/2011 M51.00 MPH BACA CO ASOS

SPRINGFIELD ASOS.

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COLORADO SPRINGS 38.83N 104.82W
10/17/2011 M48.00 MPH EL PASO CO ASOS

COLORADO SPRINGS ASOS.

0302 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PUEBLO 38.27N 104.61W
10/17/2011 M55.00 MPH PUEBLO CO ASOS

PUEBLO ASOS.


&&

$$

LW

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KCYS [172101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 172101
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
301 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0238 PM SNOW 19 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.10N 107.13W
10/17/2011 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE DIVIDE PEAK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 8880 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON WAS .3. WITH THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO OF 10 TO 1.

0238 PM SNOW 10 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.15N 106.97W
10/17/2011 E5.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE OLD BATTLE SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE
RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10000 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON WAS .5 WITH A SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO OF 10 TO 1.

0238 PM SNOW 5 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.16N 106.86W
10/17/2011 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE WEBBER SPRINGS SNOTEL SITE IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9250 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON WAS .4 AND THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1.

0238 PM SNOW WHISKEY PARK 41.00N 106.91W
10/17/2011 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE WHISKEY PARK SNOTEL SITE AT AN ELEVATION
OF 8950 FEET IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. THE SITE IS
LOCATED 28 MILES EAST OF SAVERY. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS .6 FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON WITH THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO OF 10 TO 1.

0238 PM SNOW 17 ENE RIVERSIDE 41.31N 106.48W
10/17/2011 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL SITE AT AN
ELEVATION OF 8440 FEET IN THE SNOWY RANGE. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS .2 FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON AND THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1.

0238 PM SNOW 12 WNW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.32W
10/17/2011 E8.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SNOWY RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10130 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON WAS .8 AND THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1.

0238 PM SNOW 30 WNW LARAMIE 41.48N 106.12W
10/17/2011 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE SAND LAKE SNOTEL SITE AT AN ELEVATION OF
10050 FEET IN THE SNOWY RANGE. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON WAS .6 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO
WAS 10 TO 1.

0238 PM SNOW 7 NW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.21W
10/17/2011 E5.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE BROOKLYN LAKE SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY
RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 10240 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON WAS .5 AND THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1.

0238 PM SNOW 6 SW CENTENNIAL 41.24N 106.19W
10/17/2011 E3.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY
RANGE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9574 FEET. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS .3 FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON AND THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1.


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KLSX [172025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 172025
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM HAIL BALLWIN 38.59N 90.55W
10/17/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER

AT THE INTERSECTION OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 141 AND CLAYTON
ROAD.


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KLSX [172012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 172012
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
312 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0309 PM HAIL MASCOUTAH 38.51N 89.81W
10/17/2011 M0.25 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CARNEY

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KLSX [172003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 172003
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0303 PM HAIL CREVE COEUR 38.66N 90.44W
10/17/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KLSX [171959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 171959
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
259 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL CHESTERFIELD 38.65N 90.58W
10/17/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KLSX [171955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 171955
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
255 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0254 PM HAIL MANCHESTER 38.59N 90.51W
10/17/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171952
SWODY1
SPC AC 171950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE S
CNTRL PLAINS...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...S CNTRL PLAINS...
THE LACK OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN A
LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DEEPER
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS BECOMING STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL
UPDRAFT ROTATION. AND MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MOISTENING BENEATH
RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CAPE
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE HAIL GROWTH LAYER. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING DIGGING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY NOT INITIATE STORMS UNTIL THE 18/00-03Z TIME FRAME...A
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST THIS EVENING FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..KERR.. 10/17/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011/

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MODELS
AGREE ON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT RESPOND/
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL MO INTO NORTH TX.

MOISTURE IS SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS TX...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS NOW INTO SOUTHEAST OK. A COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
UP TO 1000 J/KG NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR AND
PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION. THE STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STRENGTH OF
FORCING SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NEED ONLY SLIGHT
CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATION TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS
INSTABILITY. A SMALL SLIGHT RISK WAS CONSIDERED NEAR THE RED RIVER
/SOUTH OK AND NORTH TX/ WHERE INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WOULD BE
MAXIMIZED...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME.

...FL KEYS...
LOCAL RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA INCLUDING NEAR
THE KEYS. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF WEAK TROPICAL LOW. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS
VERY FEW STRIKES IN THIS ACTIVITY...SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

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KBTV [171924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 171924
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM HAIL MONTGOMERY 44.90N 72.64W
10/17/2011 E0.50 INCH FRANKLIN VT PUBLIC

ACCUMULATED ON ROADS AND THE GROUND WAS WHITE


&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100589

$$

TABER

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KPUB [171905]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 171905
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
105 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW CLIMAX 39.37N 106.18W
10/17/2011 M4.0 INCH LAKE CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL REPORT FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN CLIMAX.


&&

$$

LW

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KLSX [171904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 171904
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
204 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM HAIL WENTZVILLE 38.81N 90.86W
10/17/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KPIH [171844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 171844
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1243 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1242 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. ANTHONY 43.97N 111.68W
10/17/2011 M0.60 INCH FREMONT ID EMERGENCY MNGR

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL. HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTED IN SOME
MINOR ROAD EROSION.


&&

$$

VALLE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171727
SWODY2
SPC AC 171725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING MUCH OF FLORIDA...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES PROGRESSING AROUND LARGE-SCALE
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST...MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS AND
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND EASTWARD THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS INDICATE THAT
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY AN IMPULSE LIKELY TO
LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WIND FIELDS AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

...MUCH OF NRN FL...THE FL PEN...AND THE S ATLANTIC COAST...
VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING SMALLER SCALE
DEVELOPMENTS WHICH WILL IMPACT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW FIELDS WILL OCCUR /TO 40-50+ KT/...LIKELY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON...NORTHWARD INTO
COASTAL EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND INCREASES DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO ALREADY
BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
12Z TUESDAY...AND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASING CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY ULTIMATELY
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL NORTHWARD ADVANCING BAND OF
WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN CONVECTION...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 10/17/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171609
SWODY1
SPC AC 171607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MODELS
AGREE ON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT RESPOND/
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL MO INTO NORTH TX.

MOISTURE IS SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS TX...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS NOW INTO SOUTHEAST OK. A COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
UP TO 1000 J/KG NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR AND
PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION. THE STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STRENGTH OF
FORCING SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NEED ONLY SLIGHT
CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATION TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS
INSTABILITY. A SMALL SLIGHT RISK WAS CONSIDERED NEAR THE RED RIVER
/SOUTH OK AND NORTH TX/ WHERE INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WOULD BE
MAXIMIZED...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME.

...FL KEYS...
LOCAL RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA INCLUDING NEAR
THE KEYS. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF WEAK TROPICAL LOW. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS
VERY FEW STRIKES IN THIS ACTIVITY...SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HART/ROGERS.. 10/17/2011

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KBTV [171522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 171522
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1121 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM HAIL ENOSBURG FALLS 44.91N 72.81W
10/17/2011 E0.25 INCH FRANKLIN VT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND


&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100588

$$

TABER

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KKEY [171455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 171455
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0109 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/17/2011 M43 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 37-KNOT
WIND GUST AT 109AM LOCAL AS HEAVY SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA.

0216 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/17/2011 M39 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 34-KNOT
WIND GUST AT 216AM LOCAL AS HEAVY SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA.

0543 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/17/2011 M40 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 35-KNOT
WIND GUST AT 543AM LOCAL AS HEAVY SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA.

0651 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/17/2011 M39 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 34-KNOT
WIND GUST AT 651AM LOCAL AS HEAVY SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA.

0742 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/17/2011 E40 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 35-KNOT
WIND GUST AT 742AM LOCAL AS HEAVY SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA.

0845 AM FLOOD KEY WEST 24.56N 81.78W
10/17/2011 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF-DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
FLOODING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CAROLINE AND MARGARET
STREET. BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET OF STANDING WATER WAS
REPORTED.

0915 AM FLOOD KEY WEST 24.56N 81.78W
10/17/2011 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING NEAR DONALD AVE. AND 20TH
ST. AT 915AM LOCAL. UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4 FEET OF STANDING
WATERS WERE PRESENT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.

0630 AM FLOOD KEY WEST 24.56N 81.78W
10/17/2011 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE MONROE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED SEVERAL CARS
STRANDED IN FLOOD WATERS ALONG SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD
NEAR THE MARRIOT HOTEL AT 630AM LOCAL.

0600 AM FLOOD KEY WEST 24.56N 81.78W
10/17/2011 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED STREET FLOODING NEAR WHITEHEAD AND
EATON STREETS AT 600AM LOCAL. 3 TO 4 FEET OF STANDING
WATER WAS REPORTED.


&&

$$

ULRICH

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KPIH [171321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 171321
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
721 AM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM HEAVY RAIN VICTOR 43.60N 111.11W
10/17/2011 M0.40 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

VALLE

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KSLC [171249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 171249
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
649 AM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM NON-TSTM WND GST IBAPAH 40.12N 113.53W
10/16/2011 M58 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

CAUSEWAY - 4246 FT

0458 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BURNTFORK 40.81N 110.07W
10/17/2011 M61 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

CHEPETA - 12120 FT

&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171238
SWODY1
SPC AC 171236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY AS A DEEP
OCCLUDED LOW PERSISTS NEAR JAMES BAY...AND A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER UT/WY/NW CO DIGS SEWD TO TX. AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS N TX EARLY
TONIGHT TO SRN AR BY EARLY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SEWD ACROSS OK/TX.

...SRN/ERN OK AND VICINITY LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE REDUCED BY THE TROPICAL LOW NEAR THE
YUCATAN. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED IN SPATIAL EXTENT BY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN
INTO TX. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO BE CONFINED TO A LINE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE
NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE EVENING. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE TOO
NARROW...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT TOO MARGINAL...TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME FOR AREAS NEAR/SE OF I-44 IN OK/N TX.

...FL KEYS TODAY...
BANDS OF CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS THE KEYS AND FL STRAITS TO THE
E/NE OF A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO /N OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL/. RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLS
THIS MORNING AROUND THE KEYS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS PER VWP OBSERVATIONS FROM KEY WEST. THE LONGER TERM
SUPERCELL/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL ADD A LOW
PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH
LATER ADJUSTMENTS PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SE GULF LOW.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 10/17/2011

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KGJT [171231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 171231
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
630 AM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E RIFLE 39.55N 107.72W
10/17/2011 M51 MPH GARFIELD CO ASOS

WIND GUST IN SHOWERS


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100537

$$

TB

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KAPX [170947]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170947
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
547 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.72W
10/17/2011 M46 MPH EMMET MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170848
SWOD48
SPC AC 170847

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BREAKS DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
DAY 5 /SAT. OCT. 22/...BUT UNTIL THEN SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE
LOW...AS A LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
SLOWLY DEPARTS AND BROAD NWLY FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS THE CONUS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADING
ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ERN
LOW...RATHER UNEVENTFUL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

..GOSS.. 10/17/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2256

ACUS11 KWNS 170839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170839
FLZ000-171115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE FL KEYS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170839Z - 171115Z

RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW COVERAGE OF RELATIVELY DISCRETE
CONVECTION INCREASING FROM LOWER KEYS SEWD ACROSS STRAITS AT LEAST
180 NM PAST CAY SAL BANK AND JUST OFFSHORE N-CENTRAL CUBA.
WATERSPOUTS FROM ROTATING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WATERS NEAR
KEYS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LOWER-MIDDLE
KEYS THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING.

DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
SMALL WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING PRODUCTION -- I.E. OCNL
WARM-CLOUD/MINI-SUPERCELLULAR SHOWERS. EXPECT WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY BOTTOM-HEAVY PROFILE OF BUOYANCY. RICH
LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND 2.25-2.5 INCH PW SUPPORTS MLCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG OVER STRAITS...DECREASING NWD ACROSS FL BAY. LOWER-MIDDLE KEYS
AND ADJACENT WATERS LIE WITHIN NERN FRINGE OF ENHANCED
BOUNDARY-LAYER SHEAR...BASED ON EYW/MIA VWP...OBSERVED SFC WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL MODEL ANALYSES. 0-1 KM SRH HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN
250-300 J/KG RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND EYW...BENEATH 20-30 KT
SELY LLJ THAT LIKELY STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT FARTHER SW TOWARD AREAS
OFFSHORE NWRN CUBA. BULK OF STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTENTLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN S AND W OF LOWER KEYS...WHERE RUC
AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COMPARABLE BUOYANCY AND LARGER
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE-SCALE ROTATION WITH CELLS APCHG
LOWER-MIDDLE KEYS.

REF NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS -- WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC -- FOR
LATEST FCST GUIDANCE ON RELATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF NERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

..EDWARDS.. 10/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...

LAT...LON 24908058 24758090 24628122 24628146 24538172 24538181
24528221 24608220 24578199 24598172 24768145 24758131
24738114 24868082 24948067 24908058

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KAPX [170816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170816
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/17/2011 M48 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KAPX [170813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170813
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/17/2011 M46 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KAPX [170813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170813
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/17/2011 M46 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KAPX [170812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170812
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/17/2011 M46 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KAPX [170810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170810
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.50N 84.37W
10/17/2011 M45 MPH CHIPPEWA MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KAPX [170809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170809
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
409 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.50N 84.37W
10/17/2011 M45 MPH CHIPPEWA MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170731
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY LARGE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EWD/NEWD WITH TIME...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY LATE. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MINOR OUT AS IT IMPINGES ON THE RIDGE
UPSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE OVER THE ERN U.S. AS THE
GFS SHIFTS A LOW NWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN NWWD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT OCCLUDES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
LINGERS INVOF THE NC OUTER BANKS AND OVER S FL EARLY...BUT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE BY LUNCHTIME. MEANWHILE...THE NAM IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE SE U.S. LOW/FRONTAL POSITIONS FARTHER W/SW AND THE
FRONT STILL ONSHORE THROUGH SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING ERN U.S. SYSTEM.

...COASTAL NC...
WHILE THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INLAND
CAROLINAS AND VICINITY WITH ITS MUCH SLOWER SURFACE SYSTEM
PROGRESSION...WILL OPT TO HOLD CLOSER TO A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING NWD ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE
EARLY. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION -- AND EVEN TO A LESSER DEGREE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION -- SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NC
COAST WHERE WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR WOULD RESIDE. MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WOULD BE TIMING...WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
ENDING EARLY IN THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS...BUT OCCURRING
PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PER THE NAM. MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE A LOCAL WIND GUST OR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO.

..GOSS.. 10/17/2011

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KKEY [170728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 170728
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
328 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0216 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/17/2011 M39 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

A NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...39 MPH...WAS
MEASURED AT THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS MOVING OVERHEAD.


&&

$$

COTTRILL

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KAPX [170721]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170721
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/17/2011 M47 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KKEY [170621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 170621
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0109 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/17/2011 M43 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

A NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS...43 MPH...WAS
MEASURED AT THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS.


&&

$$

COTTRILL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170600
SWODY1
SPC AC 170559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EVOLUTION OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/RED RIVER VICINITY...WITH MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX AHEAD OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
GENERAL FOCUS FOR TSTMS /SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE/ THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EASTERLY LOW-LEVELS WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO
INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS FL...WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WILL OTHERWISE GENERALLY PRECLUDE TSTMS.

...NORTH TX AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN OK TO OZARKS...
GIVEN THE SCENARIO PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...STEADY BUT MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN ACCELERATING COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY...WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
OK AND NORTH TX TO THE ARKLATEX/PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. WHILE
CAPPING WILL BE PREVALENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR
TOWARD/AFTER 00Z...WITH THE AID OF DPVA/UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND
INCREASING NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.

WHILE MOISTURE CONTENT/TOTAL BUOYANCY WILL BE MODEST...WITH MLCAPE
500-1000 J/KG OR LESS -- RELATIVELY HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OK/NORTH TX...STEEP LAPSE RATES/LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELLS/PERHAPS A FEW INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL...WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STRONG MEAN FLOW SUGGESTIVE
OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE/CONGEAL AFTER DARK WHILE GRADUALLY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. ANY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND THREAT WILL TEND TO
WANE BY LATE EVENING AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY
LAYER/PROGRESSIVE ELEVATED INFLOW.

...SOUTH FL/FL KEYS...
ITS LIKELY THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY IN VICINITY OF THE FL
STRAITS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELLS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR
THE KEYS/OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
BUOYANCY ASIDE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME SUCH THAT ANY TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW.

..GUYER/GARNER.. 10/17/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170558
SWODY2
SPC AC 170557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS --
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE...GENERAL AGREEMENT CONTINUES THAT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SWRN FRINGE OF AN ERN CANADA
VORTEX WILL DIG RAPIDLY SEWD WITH TIME...RESULTING IN A VERY
LARGE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM.

UPSTREAM...SHARP RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH A
SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH REACHING THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A GENERALLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED/BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
AND TN VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONSOLIDATION OF
A SURFACE LOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST IS
PROGGED BY THE GFS...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS BROAD/DISORGANIZED WITH
THE LOW UNTIL AFTER THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

...FL AND THE GA/CAROLINA COASTS...
SITUATION REMAINS COMPLEX...WITH THE NAM AND GFS STILL DIFFERING
WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF PROMINENT SURFACE FEATURES. ATTM...MAIN
AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD. HERE...MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD A LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
LESSER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS FL...AND INTO THE TN
VALLEY REGION WHERE MODELS ROUGHLY AGREE ON THE AFTERNOON COLD
FRONTAL POSITION. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE ONLY COASTAL AREAS
AND FL IN THE LOW PROBABILITY THREAT...AND WILL REFRAIN FROM SLIGHT
RISK ISSUANCE DUE TO BOTH PERSISTENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY...AND
SECONDARILY TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
FOR MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 10/17/2011

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KAPX [170518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170518
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
118 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/17/2011 M45 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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