Thursday, November 11, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111711
SWODY2
SPC AC 111710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE-TILT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL SWING EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NRN
STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THE GREAT PLAINS BEHIND
A WEAK SFC LOW MIGRATING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT ON DAY 2. PORTIONS OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


...SRN PLAINS...
TONGUE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AVERAGING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES GATHERING
IN E TX WILL SURGE NWD TODAY AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MID-LEVEL WAVE. POSITIVE-TILT NATURE TO THE IMPULSE WILL ONLY
RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND IMPROVING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT
AMIDST MLCAPES 200-500 J/KG. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM
NCNTRL TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING COLD FRONT.

PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE
CRITERIA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AND THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING.

..RACY.. 11/11/2010

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KCYS [111707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 111707
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1007 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW 7 WSW DALTON 41.37N 103.09W
11/11/2010 M2.2 INCH CHEYENNE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY SNOW AT OBSERVATION TIME.


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KSGX [111658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 111658
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
858 AM PST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM DUST STORM 4 ENE ONTARIO 34.08N 117.54W
11/11/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

WIND BLOWING DUST ACROSSS INTERSTATE 10 NEAR ETIWANDA
AVENUE, VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO

0730 AM HIGH SUST WINDS FREMONT CANYON 33.79N 117.72W
11/11/2010 M47.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

PEAK GUST 61 MPH, GUSTS OVER 58 MPH SINCE 0530 PST

0746 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 N IRVINE 33.73N 117.80W
11/11/2010 ORANGE CA PUBLIC

35 FOOT TALL TREE BLOWN DOWN, BLOCKING PORTOLA PARKWAY ON
RAMP TO HIGHWAY 261

0758 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SW ONTARIO 34.03N 117.63W
11/11/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

TREE BLOWN DOWN, ON TOP OF VEHICLE

0807 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE TUSTIN 33.75N 117.79W
11/11/2010 ORANGE CA PUBLIC

TREE BLOWN DOWN, LAYING ACROSS ROAD

0809 AM DUST STORM CHINO 34.01N 117.69W
11/11/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

VISIBILITY 0.75 MILE IN BLOWING DUST, WIND SUSTAINED 20
MPH WITH GUSTS 38 MPH

0811 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N ONTARIO 34.07N 117.61W
11/11/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

POWER LINES DOWN, STARTING A FIRE


&&

$$

RBALFO

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KCYS [111645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 111645
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
945 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 AM SNOW 10 WSW TIE SIDING 41.02N 105.69W
11/11/2010 M0.7 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 AM SNOW 10 NW CHEYENNE 41.25N 104.93W
11/11/2010 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0907 AM SNOW 3 W BUSHNELL 41.23N 103.95W
11/11/2010 M3.0 INCH KIMBALL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES.

0908 AM SNOW KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
11/11/2010 M4.0 INCH KIMBALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. SEVERAL TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS REPORTED.

0920 AM SNOW SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
11/11/2010 M1.0 INCH CHEYENNE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW ACCUMULATING ON ROADS.

0930 AM SNOW 1 NW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.80W
11/11/2010 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

SINCE MIDNIGHT AT NWSFO CHEYENNE.


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111622
SWODY1
SPC AC 111620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND N OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NWRN TX THROUGH
NERN OK. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOWNSTREAM OF POSITIVELY-TILTED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL RESULT IN A MARKED
INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND STEADILY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO
CNTRL KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD GRADUALLY EWD AMIDST MODEST
INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING GENERALLY AOB 500
J/KG. SHALLOW/NOCTURNALLY-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DAMPEN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. GIVEN LINEAR/CLUSTER
MODES...LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE HAIL ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY.

...FOUR CORNERS...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WHERE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL
SUPPORT STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION.

..GRAMS/HALES.. 11/11/2010

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KPUB [111620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 111620
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
920 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
11/11/2010 M4.0 INCH MINERAL CO TRAINED SPOTTER

IN PAST 24 HOURS.


&&

$$

MN

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KSGX [111600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 111600
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 AM PST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 23 E COACHELLA 33.68N 115.75W
11/11/2010 XXX XX PUBLIC

SEMI-TRACTOR TRAILER LAYING ON ITS SIDE NEAR CHIRICAO
SUMMIT ON WEST BOUND INTERSTATE 10. PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
LOCATION OF EAST OF BANNING WAS INCORRECT.

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREMONT CANYON 33.79N 117.72W
11/11/2010 M59.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

GUST OF 58 MPH ALSO REPORTED AT 0530 PST

0640 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 N MISSION VIEJO 33.66N 117.65W
11/11/2010 ORANGE CA PUBLIC

TREE BLOWN DOWN AND BLOCKING ROAD AT NORMANDALE DRIVE AND
REGENCY LANE


&&

$$

RBALFO

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KBOU [111546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 111546
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
846 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW ESTES PARK 40.37N 105.52W
11/11/2010 M2.1 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW VIRGINIA DALE 40.95N 105.35W
11/11/2010 M1.7 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
11/11/2010 M1.4 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
11/11/2010 M1.5 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 1 WNW ELDORADO SPRINGS 39.93N 105.28W
11/11/2010 M1.3 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
11/11/2010 M1.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW NNW ILIFF 40.76N 103.07W
11/11/2010 M3.5 INCH LOGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 AM SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
11/11/2010 M3.5 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BLOUIS

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KSGX [111534]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 111534
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
734 AM PST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E RIVERSIDE 33.94N 117.36W
11/11/2010 RIVERSIDE CA PUBLIC

POWER POLE DOWN

0552 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E IRVINE 33.66N 117.76W
11/11/2010 ORANGE CA PUBLIC

TREE BLOW DOWN, BLOCKING SLOW LANE ON NORTH BOUND
INTERSTATE 5 JUST SOUTH OF JEFFREY ROAD

0602 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 E BANNING 33.94N 116.84W
11/11/2010 RIVERSIDE CA PUBLIC

SEMI-TRACTOR TRAILER LAYING ON ITS SIDE.

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREMONT CANYON 33.79N 117.72W
11/11/2010 M59.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

GUST OF 58 MPH ALSO REPORTED AT 0530 PST

0640 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 N MISSION VIEJO 33.66N 117.65W
11/11/2010 ORANGE CA PUBLIC

TREE BLOWN DOWN AND BLOCKING ROAD AT NORMANDALE DRIVE AND
REGENCY LANE

0703 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG E UPLAND 34.12N 117.66W
11/11/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

TREE UPROOTED AND LAYING ACROSS ROADWAY

0716 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SW UPLAND 34.11N 117.67W
11/11/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

TREE BLOWN DOWN, LAYING ACROSS ROADWAY


&&

$$

RBALFO

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KCYS [111534]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 111534 CCA
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
835 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 AM SNOW MERIDEN REST AREA 41.54N 104.32W
11/11/2010 M3.5 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0824 AM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
11/11/2010 M5.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTS FROM WITHIN THE CITY OF PINE BLUFFS INDICATE
BETWEEN 3.5 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KMHX [111526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 111526
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM STORM SURGE RODANTHE 35.59N 75.47W
11/11/2010 U0.00 FT DARE NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

OCEAN OVERWASH REPORTED AT MIRLO BEACH PRODUCING MINOR
FLOODING AT S CURVES OF HIGHWAY 12. REPORTED BY DARE
COUNTY 911 CENTER.


&&

$$

JMERRELL

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KCYS [111525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 111525
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
825 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 AM SNOW MERIDEN REST AREA 41.54N 104.32W
11/11/2010 M3.5 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0824 AM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
11/11/2010 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTS FROM WITHIN THE CITY OF PINE BLUFFS INDICATE
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [111454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 111454
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
754 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 AM SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
11/11/2010 M0.5 INCH ALBANY WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE HALF INCH OF NEW SNOW WITH THE TOTAL SNOW DEPTH OF 4
INCHES.

0725 AM SNOW BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
11/11/2010 M0.5 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE HALF INCH OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW
DEPTH.

0729 AM SNOW TORRINGTON 42.07N 104.18W
11/11/2010 M1.0 INCH GOSHEN WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0731 AM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
11/11/2010 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0736 AM SNOW WHEATLAND 42.05N 104.96W
11/11/2010 M1.0 INCH PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW WAS MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES AND STARTING TO STICK
TO THE ROADS.

0740 AM SNOW CHUGWATER 41.76N 104.82W
11/11/2010 E1.0 INCH PLATTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0742 AM SNOW SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
11/11/2010 E1.0 INCH CHEYENNE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW WAS MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

0744 AM SNOW KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
11/11/2010 E1.0 INCH KIMBALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW WAS MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES AND STARTING TO STICK
TO THE ROADS.

0745 AM SNOW 2 SE CHEYENNE 41.12N 104.76W
11/11/2010 M1.8 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 AM SNOW 3 SSW CHEYENNE 41.11N 104.81W
11/11/2010 M1.5 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 AM SNOW 11 SSE HORSE CREEK 41.26N 105.10W
11/11/2010 M1.5 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KGJT [111413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 111413
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
713 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 AM SNOW 7 W DURANGO 37.29N 108.00W
11/11/2010 M3.0 INCH LA PLATA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000712

$$

MALEKSA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111301
SWODY1
SPC AC 111259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E THIS PERIOD WHILE
POSITIVE TILT GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES ESE TO THE SRN
RCKYS...RESULTING IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM BLACK HILLS TO
FAR W TX. AT THE SFC...FALLING PRESSURES E OF THE RCKYS WILL ALLOW
NWWD ADVANCE/REDEVELOPMENT OF FRONT NOW STALLED OVER THE SRN PLNS.
BY THIS EVE...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ENE ACROSS NRN OK INTO
CNTRL/SRN MO FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN NE NM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN...SRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE E/SE
AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN HI PLNS EARLY FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...
DRYLINE NOW OVER W TX SHOULD REORIENT MERIDIONALLY...WITH THE
FEATURE EXTENDING FROM SW TX NWD INTO W CNTRL OK BY LATE IN THE DAY.


...CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO LWR MO VLY...
TWO MAIN EPISODES OF DEEP CONVECTION/TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY THIS
PERIOD. FIRST...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEEPEN INTO ISOLD TO
WDLY SCTD TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS/OK AND PERHAPS SW MO TOWARD MIDDAY
AS WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHEN ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE.
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR SVR WEATHER.

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BANDS OF TSTMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND N OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FROM PARTS OF W TX AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES NEWD INTO KS AND THE LWR MO VLY AS WAA... MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND UVV FURTHER STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING
UPR IMPULSE. SOME SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTN IN TX...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING...MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. STEADILY INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW OVERNIGHT
ACCOMPANYING 40-45 KT LLJ...AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING/REGENERATIVE
ACTIVITY SSW TOWARD THE UPR RED RVR VLY REGION...WHILE DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT SPREADS NE INTO THE LWR MO VLY.

THE FRONTAL STORMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD GRADUALLY EWD
AMIDST MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE REMAINING GENERALLY AOB 500
J/KG. SHALLOW/NOCTURNALLY-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DAMPEN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC GUSTS. GIVEN LINEAR MODE...LACK
OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND WEAK CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...SVR HAIL
ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY. LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD
PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT WITH STORMS OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS/LWR MO VLY.

...FOUR CORNERS...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD...SHALLOW...AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY FORM
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTN AS STG MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT
OVERSPREAD AREA AHEAD OF GRT BASIN TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/11/2010

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KCYS [111223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 111223
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
522 AM MST THU NOV 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 AM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
11/11/2010 M0.7 INCH LARAMIE WY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0516 AM SNOW PINE BLUFFS 41.18N 104.07W
11/11/2010 E0.8 INCH LARAMIE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LESS THAN AN INCH OVERNIGHT.

0516 AM SNOW WHEATLAND 42.05N 104.96W
11/11/2010 E0.5 INCH PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.

0516 AM SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
11/11/2010 E0.7 INCH ALBANY WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LESS THAN AN INCH SINCE ABOUT 1 A.M.

0516 AM SNOW KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
11/11/2010 E0.8 INCH KIMBALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

LESS THAN AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS.


&&

$$

REMANUEL

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110948
SWOD48
SPC AC 110947

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...IT REMAINS
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT ANY POSSIBILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE LARGELY CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST THE
INITIATION OF STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RELATIVELY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO OR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT
MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY REMOTE.
COMPOUNDING MATTERS...MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES VERY LARGE
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK

..KERR.. 11/11/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110742
SWODY3
SPC AC 110741

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A VERY
STRONG UPPER JET CONTINUING TO NOSE AROUND ITS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY...THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT
THE SAME TIME...WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH... ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND GULF COAST STATES. AND A SURFACE
CYCLONE MAY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
STRENGTH THAT THIS IMPULSE MAY MAINTAIN...AND NUMEROUS OTHER SHORT
WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING SLOW TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND A
COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE
INFLUX OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF.

DESPITE STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND WEAK TO
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LOWER MOISTURE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD EVEN WEAKER...IF ANY...INSTABILITY...
PROBABLY NEGATING THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 11/11/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110602
SWODY2
SPC AC 110601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD... WITH
A STRONG HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING 700 MILES OR SO WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
DOWNSTREAM SPLIT UPPER FLOW...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... BUT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW TONGUE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOWER 6OS SURFACE DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL
ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY...AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY...PRIOR TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND AN ATTENDANT SIGNIFICANT REMNANT
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS...THOUGH...THE RELATIVELY
WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SUGGESTS THAT THE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED...PARTICULARLY WITH
DESTABILIZATION STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK.

...PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CAPE MUCH MORE THAN 250 TO PERHAPS 500
J/KG...DUE TO THE TENDENCY OF THE MID-LEVEL FORCING TO LAG TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...CONCERN STILL EXISTS FOR A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
TIMING OF THE UPPER IMPULSE...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE...REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER THE FASTER OR SLOWER MODELS VERIFY...APPEARS FAVORABLE TO
ALLOW FOR THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM AND WEAKLY DESTABILIZE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW BECOMES CUT OFF.

..KERR.. 11/11/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110547
SWODY1
SPC AC 110545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST WED NOV 10 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT WRN MEAN TROUGHING TO BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH PERIOD...ALONG WITH WELL-DEFINED RIDGING E OF MS RIVER AND
ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ANALYZED ATTM OVER GREAT BASIN
IS FCST TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES BY 12/12Z...RESULTING IN
PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM BLACK HILLS TO NEAR ELP
AT THAT TIME.

IN RESPONSE...SFC LEE TROUGHING ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO NWD RETREAT OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED
FROM S-CENTRAL OK ACROSS SERN NM...THROUGH ABOUT 12/06Z. THIS FRONT
WILL SHIFT/REDEVELOP NWD TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NERN NM BY
12/00Z...EXTENDING ENEWD AT THAT TIME ACROSS NRN OK AND CENTRAL/SRN
MO. FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...NEAR
MKC-ICT-CDS-MAF LINE. DRYLINE...NOW ANALYZED FROM S-CENTRAL OK SWWD
ACROSS SW TX...SHOULD REORIENT MERIDIONALLY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM SW TX NWD ACROSS SWRN/W-CENTRAL OK TO
INTERSECTION WITH FRONTAL ZONE.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...IA...
TWO PRIMARY TEMPORAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES ARE EXPECTED.
FIRST...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BUILD INTO ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS KS/OK AND PERHAPS SWRN MO BEFORE
18Z...AS MRGL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ACCOMPANY INCREASINGLY WARM
TRAJECTORIES ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL BE RAISED TO LFC. NET
STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT...COMBINING
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BOOST DEPTH OF BUOYANCY PAST
SLOWLY-DESTABILIZING WEAKNESS IN LAPSE RATES AROUND 500-MB LEVEL.
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE TOO WEAK FOR SVR THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

LATER...BANDS OF TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INVOF
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE AND
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT EACH STRENGTHEN...BUT BEGINNING PERHAPS IN
AFTERNOON WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR BOUNDARY.
E OF DRYLINE AND SE OF FRONT...RETURN OF INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED AIR
MASS FROM GULF COAST REGION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF 50S F SFC DEW POINTS NOW ANALYZED IN
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NW TX TO NRN MO...WITH LOW 60S F AT LEAST INTO
PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL OK. STEADILY INCREASING WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANYING 40-45 KT LLJ...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SHOULD ASSIST WITH CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING
SWD TOWARD UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY REGION NEAR CDS AND
SPREADING/DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD WRN PORTIONS OF CORN BELT.

FRONTAL TSTMS OVER SRN PLAINS SHOULD SHIFT EWD AMIDST MRGL
DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPES REMAINING GENERALLY AOB 500
J/KG MOST AREAS...AND SHALLOW/DIABATICALLY COOLED STABLE LAYER AT
SFC THAT SHOULD DAMPEN DOWNDRAFT GUSTS. GIVEN LINEAR MODE AND LACK
OF ROBUST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AS WELL AS FCST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES LESS THAN 30 KT...HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. LACK OF
MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALSO SHOULD
PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA.

...4-CORNERS AREA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...SHALLOW AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING DAY AS STG DCVA AND RELATED COOLING ALOFT SPREAD OVER
THIS REGION...WHILE DIABATIC SFC HEATING OFFSETS CAA ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG.

..EDWARDS/HURLBUT.. 11/11/2010

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