KEAX [120355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 120355
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1055 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM HAIL 8 NE GARDEN CITY 38.64N 94.08W
10/11/2011 M0.75 INCH JOHNSON MO PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED VIA FACEBOOK

&&

$$

BOOKBINDER

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KFSD [120337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 120337
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 PM HAIL 5 SSW PARKER 43.33N 97.18W
10/11/2011 E0.50 INCH TURNER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MDB

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KFSD [120330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 120330
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1030 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1004 PM HAIL 1 SSE FREEMAN 43.34N 97.42W
10/11/2011 E0.88 INCH HUTCHINSON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MDB

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KAMA [120251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 120251
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
950 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL 2 E PAMPA 35.55N 100.93W
10/11/2011 E0.88 INCH GRAY TX PUBLIC

REPORT OF 10 MINUTES OF HEAVY NICKEL SIZED HAIL FALLING
EAST OF PAMPA

0543 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/11/2011 M1.00 INCH GRAY TX CITY OFFICIAL

HAIL LASTED FOR ABOUT SIX OR SEVEN MINUTES.

0544 PM HAIL 1 W PAMPA 35.55N 100.98W
10/11/2011 M0.75 INCH GRAY TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0546 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/11/2011 M0.88 INCH GRAY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT OF STEADY NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT HIGHWAY 152 AND
PRICE ROAD IN PAMPA.

0549 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/11/2011 M0.88 INCH GRAY TX NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE QUANTITY OF UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND ON THE WEST SIDE OF PAMPA.

0615 PM HAIL 2 E PAMPA 35.55N 100.93W
10/11/2011 E0.88 INCH GRAY TX PUBLIC

REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL FALLING EAST OF PAMPA

0616 PM HAIL 10 SE BOOKER 36.35N 100.41W
10/11/2011 M1.00 INCH LIPSCOMB TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 PM HAIL LEFORS 35.44N 100.80W
10/11/2011 E2.75 INCH GRAY TX PUBLIC

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT GAS STATION IN LEFORS.
REPORT OF DAMAGED WINDSHIELDS FROM THE VERY LARGE HAIL.

0651 PM HAIL 6 SW LEFORS 35.38N 100.88W
10/11/2011 E1.75 INCH GRAY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH THUNDERSTORM
SOUTHWEST OF LEFORS

0700 PM HAIL 2 SE LIPSCOMB 36.21N 100.25W
10/11/2011 E1.50 INCH LIPSCOMB TX PUBLIC

PING PONG SIZE HAIL.

0720 PM HAIL 12 W HIGGINS 36.12N 100.24W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH LIPSCOMB TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF LIPSCOMB

0730 PM HAIL 3 N MCLEAN 35.28N 100.60W
10/11/2011 M1.75 INCH GRAY TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0740 PM HAIL HEDLEY 34.87N 100.66W
10/11/2011 E0.88 INCH DONLEY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL AND PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HEDLEY

0745 PM HAIL HEDLEY 34.87N 100.66W
10/11/2011 E1.75 INCH DONLEY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HEDLEY

0803 PM HAIL 4 NW DOZIER 35.12N 100.39W
10/11/2011 E1.00 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX PUBLIC

QUARTER HAIL AT PRIVATE RESIDENCE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100416 AMA1100417 AMA1100413 AMA1100414 AMA1100415
AMA1100419 AMA1100418 AMA1100425 AMA1100420 AMA1100426 AMA1100421
AMA1100422 AMA1100423 AMA1100424 AMA1100427

$$

SFJ

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KICT [120221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 120221
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
921 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0916 PM HAIL 1 SSE RUSSELL 38.87N 98.85W
10/11/2011 E0.88 INCH RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RBL

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KAMA [120208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 120208
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
908 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0803 PM HAIL 4 NW DOZIER 35.12N 100.39W
10/11/2011 E1.00 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX PUBLIC

QUARTER HAIL AT PRIVATE RESIDENCE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100427

$$

M. SCOTTEN

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KGID [120156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 120156
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
856 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 PM HAIL 3 SSE BLUE HILL 40.29N 98.43W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

BRIEF HAIL

0515 PM HAIL 1 N ROSEMONT 40.30N 98.36W
10/11/2011 E0.50 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

HAIL SMALLER THAN DIME SIZE

0536 PM HAIL 2 NW STROMSBURG 41.14N 97.62W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL

0552 PM HAIL 7 SSW DUNCAN 41.30N 97.54W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH POLK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS IS CORRECTED LOCATION TO EARLIER REPORT LISTED AS 7
MILES EAST OF SILVER CREEK

0558 PM HAIL 5 SSW DUNCAN 41.32N 97.53W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF HAIL TO AROUND DIME SIZE...GROUND HALF COVERED

0607 PM HAIL LEBANON 39.81N 98.56W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH SMITH KS CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN

0656 PM HAIL 2 SE ROSEMONT 40.27N 98.34W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 78. CONTINUED
HAILING FOR AT LEAST 5 MINUTES.

0806 PM HAIL 3 SE GRAND ISLAND 40.89N 98.33W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH HALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME HAIL ON SOUTHEAST SIDE OF GI

&&

$$

KING

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KAMA [120152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 120152
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
852 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL 2 SE LIPSCOMB 36.21N 100.25W
10/11/2011 E1.50 INCH LIPSCOMB TX PUBLIC

PING PONG SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100426

$$

M. SCOTTEN

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KAMA [120144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 120144
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
843 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL LEFORS 35.44N 100.80W
10/11/2011 E2.75 INCH GRAY TX PUBLIC

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT GAS STATION IN LEFORS.
REPORT OF DAMAGED WINDSHIELDS FROM THE VERY LARGE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100425

$$

M. SCOTTEN

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KGID [120108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 120108
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
808 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0806 PM HAIL 3 SE GRAND ISLAND 40.89N 98.33W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH HALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME HAIL ON SOUTHEAST SIDE OF GI

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120101
SWODY1
SPC AC 120100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PLAINS...
WITHIN A WELL-SHEARED/MODEST BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT...ONGOING
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT-TERM SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK
THIS EVENING. WITH TIME...A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN AT LEAST A LOOSE
GROUPING OF THESE STORMS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OK/NORTH TX...BUT NOTHING BEYOND SPORADIC/MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND
IS ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/INFLOW BECOMES MORE
ELEVATED. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK...REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248.

ELSEWHERE...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND/OR THE OZARKS.
HOWEVER...ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL/SPORADIC AS
WELL.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
WITH A MARITIME AIRMASS JUST OFF SHORE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX INTO COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME...WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY NEAR-COASTAL SMALL SUPERCELLS TONIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/12/2011

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KAMA [120053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 120053
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
753 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL HEDLEY 34.87N 100.66W
10/11/2011 E1.75 INCH DONLEY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HEDLEY

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100424

$$

FENNER

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KAMA [120048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 120048
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
748 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM HAIL HEDLEY 34.87N 100.66W
10/11/2011 E0.88 INCH DONLEY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL AND PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HEDLEY

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100423

$$

FENNER

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KAMA [120043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 120043
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
743 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM HAIL 3 N MCLEAN 35.28N 100.60W
10/11/2011 M1.75 INCH GRAY TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100422

$$

KJS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2248

ACUS11 KWNS 120032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120032
OKZ000-TXZ000-120300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PANHANDLE OF TX...CAPROCK/LOW-ROLLING
PLAINS OF NW TX...WRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120032Z - 120300Z

BKN BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SVR...WILL PROCEED EWD TO SEWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. PRIND ACTIVITY IS PAST PEAK SVR POTENTIAL...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER ABOUT 01Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
MEANWHILE LARGE HAIL IS MAIN CONCERN.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER N-CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE
REGION...WITH WAVY DRYLINE EXTENDING GENERALLY SWD ACROSS ERN
FRINGES AMA AREA...CROSSING I-27 BETWEEN CANYON-PVW THEN GENERALLY
SSWWD TO BETWEEN MAF-INK. COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD
ACROSS N-CENTRAL KS. MODEL SOUNDING AND JTN PROFILER SHOW FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH 150-300 J/KG AND CORRIDOR OF
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE BAND. 30-35 KT LLJ E OF DRYLINE SHOULD MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...WHILE DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS MAINTAINED BY VEERING OF MID-UPPER FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME FOR ORGANIZED SVR. MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST THAT SFC DIABATIC
COOLING WILL RESULT IN DECREASINGLY SFC-BASED PARCELS IN MOIST
SECTOR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG
RETREATING DRYLINE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BECOME LESS PROBABLE WITH
TIME THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING BASED ON THOSE THERMAL TRENDS THAT
YIELD STRENGTHENING MLCINH TO ITS E.

..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33650109 35520086 36410021 36309929 34959930 33729986
33349991 33170059 33650109

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KAMA [120031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 120031
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
731 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 12 W HIGGINS 36.12N 100.24W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH LIPSCOMB TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF LIPSCOMB

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100421

$$

FENNER

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KGID [120005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 120005
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0656 PM HAIL 2 SE ROSEMONT 40.27N 98.34W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 78. CONTINUED
HAILING FOR AT LEAST 5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KAMA [112355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112355
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
655 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0651 PM HAIL 6 SW LEFORS 35.38N 100.88W
10/11/2011 E1.75 INCH GRAY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH THUNDERSTORM
SOUTHWEST OF LEFORS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100420

$$

FENNER

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KGID [112346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 112346
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 PM HAIL 3 SSE BLUE HILL 40.29N 98.43W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

BRIEF HAIL

0515 PM HAIL 1 N ROSEMONT 40.30N 98.36W
10/11/2011 E0.50 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

HAIL SMALLER THAN DIME SIZE

0536 PM HAIL 2 NW STROMSBURG 41.14N 97.62W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL

0552 PM HAIL 7 SSW DUNCAN 41.30N 97.54W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH POLK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS IS CORRECTED LOCATION TO EARLIER REPORT LISTED AS 7
MILES EAST OF SILVER CREEK

0558 PM HAIL 5 SSW DUNCAN 41.32N 97.53W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF HAIL TO AROUND DIME SIZE...GROUND HALF COVERED

0607 PM HAIL LEBANON 39.81N 98.56W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH SMITH KS CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [112340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGID 112340
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
639 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM HAIL 7 SSW DUNCAN 41.30N 97.54W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH POLK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS IS CORRECTED LOCATION TO EARLIER REPORT LISTED AS 7
MILES EAST OF SILVER CREEK

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [112332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGID 112332
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
632 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM HAIL 5 SSW DUNCAN 41.32N 97.53W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF HAIL TO AROUND DIME SIZE...GROUND HALF COVERED

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KTSA [112327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 112327
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM HAIL 2 W EUREKA SPRINGS 36.40N 93.77W
10/11/2011 E1.00 INCH CARROLL AR TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORT VIA NWS SHV

&&

$$

BAS

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KGID [112326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 112326
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM HAIL 5 SW DUNCAN 41.34N 97.56W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF HAIL TO AROUND DIME SIZE...GROUND HALF COVERED

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KAMA [112325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112325
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 2 E PAMPA 35.55N 100.93W
10/11/2011 E0.88 INCH GRAY TX PUBLIC

REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL FALLING EAST OF PAMPA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100419

$$

FENNER

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KAMA [112318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112318
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 PM HAIL 10 SE BOOKER 36.35N 100.41W
10/11/2011 M1.00 INCH LIPSCOMB TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100418

$$

KJS

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KGID [112311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 112311
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
611 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM HAIL LEBANON 39.81N 98.56W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH SMITH KS CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KAMA [112302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112302
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
602 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/11/2011 M1.00 INCH GRAY TX CITY OFFICIAL

HAIL LASTED FOR ABOUT SIX OR SEVEN MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100417

$$

KJS

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KAMA [112257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112257
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
557 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL 2 E PAMPA 35.55N 100.93W
10/11/2011 E0.88 INCH GRAY TX PUBLIC

REPORT OF 10 MINUTES OF HEAVY NICKEL SIZED HAIL FALLING
EAST OF PAMPA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100416

$$

FENNER

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KGID [112256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 112256
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM HAIL 7 E SILVER CREEK 41.33N 97.53W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH POLK NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KAMA [112250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112250
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0549 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/11/2011 M0.88 INCH GRAY TX NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE QUANTITY OF UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND ON THE WEST SIDE OF PAMPA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100415

$$

KJS

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KAMA [112248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112248
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
548 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/11/2011 M0.88 INCH GRAY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT OF STEADY NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT HIGHWAY 152 AND
PRICE ROAD IN PAMPA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100414

$$

KJS

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KAMA [112246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112246
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM HAIL 1 W PAMPA 35.55N 100.98W
10/11/2011 M0.75 INCH GRAY TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100413

$$

KJS

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KLUB [112242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 112242
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
542 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM HAIL LOCKNEY 34.12N 101.44W
10/11/2011 E1.00 INCH FLOYD TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100207

$$

GS

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KGID [112240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 112240
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM HAIL 2 NW STROMSBURG 41.14N 97.62W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH POLK NE PUBLIC

LOTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [112229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 112229
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 1 N ROSEMONT 40.30N 98.36W
10/11/2011 E0.50 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

HAIL SMALLER THAN DIME SIZE

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [112209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 112209
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
509 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 PM HAIL 3 SSE BLUE HILL 40.29N 98.43W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

BRIEF HAIL

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KLUB [112150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 112150
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
450 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL IDALOU 33.66N 101.68W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH LUBBOCK TX SKYWARN SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100206

$$

LINDLEY

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KDVN [112120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 112120
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
420 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0417 PM HAIL BURLINGTON 40.81N 91.12W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH DES MOINES IA PUBLIC

&&

$$

DC

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KDVN [112115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 112115
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
415 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM HAIL 1 SE BURLINGTON 40.80N 91.11W
10/11/2011 E0.75 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT 409 PM CDT PREVIOUS SPOTTER REPORTS DIME SIZED HAIL AT
HYATT AND 65 STREET IN BURLINGTON.

&&

$$

DC

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KDVN [112107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 112107
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
407 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM HAIL 1 SE BURLINGTON 40.80N 91.11W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

SHORT BURST OF PEA SIZED HAIL OCCURRED AT HYATT AND 65TH
STREET IN BURLINGTON AND BEGAN AT 404 PM CDT.

&&

$$

DC

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KDVN [112103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 112103
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
403 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0356 PM HAIL 3 E AUGUSTA 40.75N 91.23W
10/11/2011 E0.25 INCH DES MOINES IA EMERGENCY MNGR

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED AT THE SOUTHEAST
CORNDER OF THE IOWA AMMUNITION PLANT. HAIL WAS CONTINUING
AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT AND BEGAN AT 351 PM.

&&

$$

DC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2247

ACUS11 KWNS 112048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112048
TXZ000-OKZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...PORTIONS OF TX S PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112048Z - 112145Z

ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE TX S PLAINS. PRIMARY
THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...BUT
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS ELONGATED TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
STRETCHING FROM W-CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER JET CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS NOW
BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS /AS SAMPLED BY TCU
PROFILER/. AT THE SFC...20Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING
SFC LOW APPROXIMATELY 30 E GUY...WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE/TROUGH
PROTRUDING SSWD TO NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ALONG WEAKLY
CONFLUENT SFC TROUGH/LOW...AND WITH LITTLE TO NO CINH IN PLACE...AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY 22Z /AS SUPPORTED
BY SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR/.

MORE ROBUST TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE PRECLUDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UNFAVORABLE PHASING OF UPPER TROUGH /MOVING E OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA/...ALTHOUGH WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET
MAY ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS QUITE MARGINAL OWING TO MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MLCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG/...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND.

..ROGERS.. 10/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 36200006 35180005 33280026 32420117 32230169 32260243
32530267 33350234 34990200 36020192 36840146 36980115
36980074 36820017 36200006

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KDMX [112029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 112029
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ODEBOLT 42.31N 95.25W
10/07/2011 SAC IA TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT...TREE FELL ON POWER LINES AND KNOCKED OUT
POWER TO EVERYONE IN TOWN. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

$$

SKOW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111956
SWODY1
SPC AC 111954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON
BAY...A RESIDUAL NARROW PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER LINGERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AN AXIS OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG...HAS BECOME A FOCUS FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA/ WESTERN
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS...BUT
IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND
SHEAR...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION STILL SEEMS
LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS STILL ONGOING.
MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
AND PECOS VALLEY. AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY WEAK TO
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE POTENTIAL STORM COVERAGE...HOWEVER...IS BECOMING MORE
UNCLEAR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AND...GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AND THE THREAT...SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR
JUSTIFIED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 10/11/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011/

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK PROPAGATING FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY TODAY AND GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A PACIFIC FRONT WHILE PROGRESSING EWD INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS.

STEEPENING LOW- TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COINCIDE WITH A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
E OF LEE TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD
FROM THE ROCKIES MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL STILL APPROACH 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE A LEAD
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN PARTS OF CO/NM WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD.
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY SHIFT E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS...THE TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG INTENSIFYING SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LEE
TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM
MODES --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS-- APPEARS TO BE OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK
PNHDLS INTO NWRN TX AND WRN OK. HERE...THE EXIT REGION OF MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

...FAR ERN NC...

WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD ALONG
COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS PERIOD...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A NARROW AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OUTER
BANKS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
--AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR-- WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A LOW PROBABILITY RISK
FOR A TORNADO.

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KMFR [111911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 111911
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1210 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
10/11/2011 M1.71 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

$$

DW

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111721
SWODY2
SPC AC 111719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED ACROSS PARTS OF THE E CNTRL
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MO VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH A STRONG BELT OF FLOW
ROUNDING THE CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST MAY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT MODELS
INDICATE THAT A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN...AS
ONE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM DIGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST REGION...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE LATTER FEATURE ALONG A WEAK FRONT NEAR
MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING
RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS AND SHEAR SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...WHICH PROBABLY
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MODELS DO SUGGEST MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS INTO
VIRGINIA...WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

...E CNTRL PLAINS INTO LWR MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU...
FOR NOW...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IS BEING MAINTAINED WHERE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR EVIDENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS REGIME SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MAY BE MARGINAL AT BEST...AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.

..KERR.. 10/11/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111629
SWODY1
SPC AC 111627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
WRN PARTS OF TX/OK...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK PROPAGATING FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY TODAY AND GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A PACIFIC FRONT WHILE PROGRESSING EWD INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS.

STEEPENING LOW- TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COINCIDE WITH A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
E OF LEE TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD
FROM THE ROCKIES MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL STILL APPROACH 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE A LEAD
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN PARTS OF CO/NM WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD.
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY SHIFT E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS...THE TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG INTENSIFYING SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LEE
TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM
MODES --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS-- APPEARS TO BE OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK
PNHDLS INTO NWRN TX AND WRN OK. HERE...THE EXIT REGION OF MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

...FAR ERN NC...

WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD ALONG
COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS PERIOD...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A NARROW AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OUTER
BANKS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
--AND RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR-- WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A LOW PROBABILITY RISK
FOR A TORNADO.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 10/11/2011

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KTAE [111306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 111306
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
906 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN SSW THOMASVILLE 30.83N 83.98W
10/11/2011 M3.34 INCH THOMAS GA PUBLIC

24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL ENDING AT 800AM. MEASURED ON A HOME
WEATHER STATION

&&

$$

WALSH/AL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111255
SWODY1
SPC AC 111253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TX...THE TX
PANHANDLE...AND WRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST PACIFIC JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ESE FROM THE PACIFIC
NW/NRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD AS UPR RIDGES AMPLIFY OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
BROAD...NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES OVER THE PLNS/MS VLY....AND CONTINUED WEAKENING/NEWD
EJECTION OF COMPLEX TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES.

AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE HI PLNS
TODAY...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC JET.
IN THE EAST...BOUNDARY NOW PRESENT JUST OFF THE GA/SC/NC CST SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STNRY AS WEAKENING HYBRID UPR LOW NOW OVER GA/SC
BECOMES MORE EXTRATROPICAL AND LIFTS NEWD. THE NRN PART OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY EDGE INTO FAR ERN NC LATER TODAY/TNGT AS A SFC WAVE
MOVES NEWD ALONG IT.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
STRENGTHENING WNWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC JET
WILL ALLOW AN EML TO SPREAD ESE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLNS LATER TODAY. LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN RECENT
MODIFIED POLAR AIR INCURSION OVER THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LIKELY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE
FROM 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH BY LATE AFTN. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY
TIMELY ARRIVAL OF ELONGATED UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL CO.

CONFIGURATION OF UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX SHOULD KEEP
DEEP SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK IN KS AND NEB...WHERE 500 MB WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS. GREATER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WILL...HOWEVER...EXIST FARTHER S OVER THE SRN PLNS...ESPECIALLY IN
NW TX WHERE 40 KT WLY 500 MB FLOW WILL OVERLIE A 20-25 KT SSWLY LLJ.
GIVEN THIS SETUP...IT APPEARS THAT SOME MULTICELL STORMS COULD POSE
A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT IN KS/NEB. FARTHER S...A FEW SUPERCELLS
COULD ADD TO THE MIX IN NW TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE...WHERE SOMEWHAT
GREATER MOISTURE /PW TO 1 INCH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S F/
ALSO WILL BE PRESENT. SUCH STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WHILE THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...SCTD STORMS...SOME LIKELY ELEVATED...COULD PERSIST
INTO EARLY WED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS.

...CSTL CAROLINAS/SE VA TODAY/TNGT...
40 KT ELY LLJ MARKING SRN EDGE OF RETREATING MID ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND INTO TIDEWATER VA
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE CST MAY EDGE SLIGHTLY N AND NWWD...ESPECIALLY
INTO FAR ERN NC. ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE LLJ...SUFFICIENT LOW LVL
BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP IN THE VERY MOIST AIR /PW NEAR 2 INCHES/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHALLOW...WEAKLY-ROTATING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A LOW
PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 10/11/2011

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KJAX [111247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 111247
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E ARGYLE 31.08N 82.57W
10/11/2011 M7.44 INCH WARE GA CO-OP OBSERVER

MANOR CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED A 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF
7.44 INCHES.

&&

$$

SEP

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KPHI [111239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 111239
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
836 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM TORNADO ROBBINSVILLE 40.21N 74.62W
08/28/2011 MERCER NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN... TREES AND ELECTRIC
POLES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100754

$$

GAINES

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KTAE [111213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KTAE 111213
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
813 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE THOMASVILLE 30.81N 83.90W
10/11/2011 M5.39 INCH THOMAS GA COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL ENDING AT 6AM THIS MORNING.

0645 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNW BOSTON 30.84N 83.80W
10/11/2011 M6.21 INCH THOMAS GA COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL ENDING AT 645 AM THIS MORNING.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MOULTRIE 31.12N 83.86W
10/11/2011 M2.34 INCH COLQUITT GA COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

LAMERS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110900
SWOD48
SPC AC 110900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH ABOUT DAY 5...BUT SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME SOMEWHAT DISPERSIVE.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
U.S. INTO DAY 5...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
DAY 6. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE OFFSHORE FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS
INLAND DAY 4-6. THEREAFTER PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.

..DIAL.. 10/11/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110731
SWODY3
SPC AC 110730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST ON THURSDAY WILL BE HIGH AMPLITUDE
NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ERN STATES.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD.

...TN VALLEY AREA THROUGH A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...

NLY TRAJECTORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH NWD EXTENT THROUGH THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE 50S
OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TO LOW 60S OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITHIN ZONE OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITH MARGINAL MLCAPE LIKELY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE FARTHER
EAST FROM GA INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE THERMAL TROUGH MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. THE STRONGEST SHEAR
PROFILES WILL EXIST OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES WHERE UPPER
JET WILL DROP SEWD INTO BASE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER IN THESE AREAS IS FORECAST TO BE SHALLOW OWING TO A SUBSIDENCE
LAYER ALOFT IN WAKE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIND PROFILES WITH
NWD EXTENT INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT MAY BECOME
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 10/11/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110606
SWODY2
SPC AC 110605

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER JET DEVELOPS SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND N-S THROUGH THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE NERN STATES.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AREA...

MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MODEST WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS OWING TO ENELY LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE NRN GULF THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT AREAS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN
PROGRESS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA IN
ADVANCE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...BUT LOCALLY STRONGER
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP WHERE DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE AREAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT. GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR /AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/ SHOULD DEVELOP FROM ERN PORTIONS OF
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
EXIST WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA...

SOME THREAT FOR ROTATING CONVECTION WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
EJECTING BUT DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NE OF ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BACKED.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT
SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WHERE LARGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL
LIKELY EXIST.

..DIAL.. 10/11/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110445
SWODY1
SPC AC 110443

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT MON OCT 10 2011

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
INTERIOR NW INTO THE CNTRL STATES AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGER SCALE
UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE/S INFLUENCE WILL BE SLOW TO ABATE
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE LOW PLAINS AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH.
FARTHER E...DECAYING HYBRID SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
INTO AN EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM AND MOVE OFF THE SERN COAST BY LATE
EVENING.

....CNTRL-SRN PLAINS...
STRENGTHENING COMPONENT OF MID-UPPER FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES EWD INTO
THE CNTRL STATES WILL ALLOW AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN WAKE
OF A DECAYING FRONT LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES/STRONG SURFACE HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT /DCVA/ ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE CAP DURING THE
AFTERNOON--LEADING TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG FROM KS NWD PERHAPS SUPPORTING A
LOW WIND/HAIL RISK. FARTHER S...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING NEAR THE TX CAPROCK WITH A
DEEPLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH POSSIBLE WEAK SUPERCELLS AND AN
ATTENDANT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND THREAT.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
AS A POLEWARD MOVING UPPER JET OFF THE SERN COAST MOVES NWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY...AN ELY 40+ KT LLJ WILL SHIFT
NWD FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE TIDEWATER VICINITY OVERNIGHT. AN
EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE COAST AND ADJACENT SHELF WATERS
WILL TEND TO CONFINE GREATER LOW LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE GULF STREAM
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL VICINITY. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK BUOYANCY
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS /PW NEAR 2 INCHES/...WHICH MAY FOSTER A FEW
SHALLOW WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO TO
DEVELOP.

..SMITH/GUYER.. 10/11/2011

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