KTBW [252342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 252342
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
642 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TORNADO 4 WNW MYAKKA HEAD 27.50N 82.14W
01/25/2011 MANATEE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 64 AND
WINGATE ROAD. NO DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

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KABQ [252342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 252342
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
441 PM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM SNOW 6 WNW SUGARITE 36.99N 104.48W
01/24/2011 E2.5 INCH COLFAX NM TRAINED SPOTTER

RATON PORT OF ENTRY

1255 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 3 NNW TEXICO 34.43N 103.07W
01/24/2011 M41 MPH CURRY NM AWOS

KCVN AWOS.

0141 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 NNW PORTAIR 34.43N 103.32W
01/24/2011 M43 MPH CURRY NM AMATEUR RADIO

0500 PM SNOW 2 SSW PECOS 35.55N 105.69W
01/24/2011 M2.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0518 PM SNOW CAPULIN 36.74N 103.99W
01/24/2011 M1.1 INCH UNION NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM SNOW 8 N PECOS 35.69N 105.68W
01/24/2011 M2.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1100098 ABQ1100094 ABQ1100093 ABQ1100097 ABQ1100096
ABQ1100095

$$

SHY

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KMLB [252335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 252335
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
635 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 PM TSTM WND GST SANFORD 28.79N 81.28W
01/25/2011 M63 MPH SEMINOLE FL ASOS

SANFORD/ORLANDO AIRPORT ASOS PEAK WIND 27055/2314

0616 PM TSTM WND GST ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL A 28.43N 81.32W
01/25/2011 M44 MPH ORANGE FL ASOS

KMCO ASOS REMARK PK WND 28038/2316

0631 PM TSTM WND GST PORT ORANGE 29.12N 81.03W
01/25/2011 E60 MPH VOLUSIA FL TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FXD

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KJKL [252321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 252321
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
620 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM DENSE FOG 4 NE SOMERSET 37.12N 84.56W
11/15/2010 PULASKI KY NEWSPAPER

DENSE FOG WAS BLAMED FOR A FOUR VEHICLE ACCIDENT THAT
OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS HOURS OF NOVEMBER 15.
THE ACCIDENT OCCURRED NEAR THE FIRE TOWER ROAD AREA OF KY
80. TWO OF THE DRIVERS INVOLVED RECEIVED MINOR INJURIES.

&&

$$

AR

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KTBW [252314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 252314
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
613 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE TAMPA 27.91N 82.45W
01/25/2011 M60.00 MPH HILLSBOROUGH FL MESONET

60 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED.

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW SAINT PETERSBURG 27.78N 82.68W
01/25/2011 PINELLAS FL AMATEUR RADIO

GAS STATION CANOPY COLLAPSED NEAR INTERSECTION OF 38TH
AVE N AND 24TH ST N.

&&

$$

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KJAX [252313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252313
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
613 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 WNW PALM COAST 29.58N 81.25W
01/25/2011 FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED 2 FUNNEL CLOUDS APPROXIMATELY 2
MILES SOUTH OF BURNING BUSH DRIVE.

&&

$$

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KTBW [252307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 252307
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
607 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM FLOOD 2 NNW SAINT PETERSBURG 27.78N 82.68W
01/25/2011 PINELLAS FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED AT LEAST ONE AND A HALF FEET OF
WATER AROUND THE INTERSECTION OF 38TH AVE AND 24TH
STREET.

&&

$$

REYNES

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KJAX [252304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252304
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
604 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL 3 WSW PALM COAST 29.55N 81.25W
01/25/2011 E0.25 INCH FLAGLER FL AMATEUR RADIO

AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER INCH HAIL FOR
APPROXIMATELY 2 MINUTES IN WEST CENTRAL PALM COAST OFF OF
10 WELLSTONE LANE.

&&

$$

SHULER

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KJAX [252300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252300
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
559 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM LIGHTNING KEYSTONE HEIGHTS 29.78N 82.03W
01/25/2011 CLAY FL EMERGENCY MNGR

LIGHTNING CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE TO A HOME IN KEYSTONE
HEIGHTS.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KJAX [252252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252252
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
552 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM LIGHTNING YULEE 30.63N 81.57W
01/25/2011 NASSAU FL EMERGENCY MNGR

HOUSE FIRE REPORTED DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KMLB [252250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 252250
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM TSTM WND GST LEESBURG 28.81N 81.88W
01/25/2011 M40 MPH LAKE FL ASOS

LEESBURG AIRPORT ASOS PEAK WIND 28036/2218

&&

$$

FXD

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KTBW [252239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 252239
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
539 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM WATER SPOUT 2 WNW APOLLO BEACH 27.78N 82.44W
01/25/2011 GMZ830 FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF WATERSPOUT IN TAMPA BAY

&&

$$

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KTBW [252233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 252233
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
533 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL WEEKI WACHEE 28.52N 82.58W
01/25/2011 E0.70 INCH HERNANDO FL PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

0434 PM HAIL 4 NNW SPRING HILL 28.50N 82.58W
01/25/2011 E0.70 INCH HERNANDO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG SPRING HILL 28.44N 82.56W
01/25/2011 HERNANDO FL PUBLIC

DAMAGE REPORTED TO TWO WINDOWS AND GARAGE DOOR. EXACT
LOCATION NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

0510 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N SAINT PETERSBURG 27.79N 82.67W
01/25/2011 E75.00 MPH PINELLAS FL AMATEUR RADIO

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 75 MPH. BRANCHES BREAKING
OFF TREES.

&&

$$

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KJAX [252204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252204
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
504 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 NW ST. AUGUSTINE 29.92N 81.34W
01/25/2011 ST. JOHNS FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO MILES NORTH OF HWY 312 ST AUGUSTINE...FUNNEL CLOUD
REORTED

&&

$$

AWALKER

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KPIH [252203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 252203
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
303 PM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW 4 N LAGO 42.50N 111.68W
01/25/2011 M3.0 INCH CARIBOU ID TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. MELTING OCCURING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KTBW [252151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 252151
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
451 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNE MASARYKTOWN 28.47N 82.45W
01/25/2011 M58 MPH HERNANDO FL AWOS

50 KNOT WIND GUST REPORTED AT BROOKSVILLE HERNANDO COUNTY
AIRPORT.

&&

$$

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KTBW [252146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 252146
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
446 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 6 W BROOKSVILLE 28.55N 82.49W
01/25/2011 E1.00 INCH HERNANDO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

$$

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KJAX [252137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252137
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM LIGHTNING MANDARIN 30.15N 81.64W
01/25/2011 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

STRUCTURE FIRE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKE AT 3653 MOSSWOOD CT
IN MAMDARIN

&&

$$

AWALKER

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KJAX [252131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252131
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM HAIL ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
01/25/2011 E0.25 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL IN ARLINGTON.

&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [252128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252128
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
428 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 WSW DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.30N 81.74W
01/25/2011 DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT NEAR GREENLAND AND LORETTO ROAD

&&

$$

AWALKER

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KJAX [252027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252027
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN LAKE CITY 30.19N 82.64W
01/25/2011 E0.00 INCH COLUMBIA FL PUBLIC

TWO MILES SOUTH OF US HWY 90 AND ONE MILE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75 PONDING WATER ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN LAKE CITY 30.19N 82.64W
01/25/2011 E0.00 INCH COLUMBIA FL PUBLIC

TWO MILES SOUTH OF HWY 90 AND ONE MILE EAST OF INTERSTATE
75 PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING.

&&

$$

AWALKER

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KSTO [251956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 251956
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1156 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1132 AM DENSE FOG SUISUN CITY 38.25N 122.01W
01/25/2011 SOLANO CA ASOS

VISIBILITY AT SUISUN CITY IS 1/4 MILE. THE VISIBILITY AT
THIS SITE HAS BEEN AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE SINCE 715A.

1132 AM DENSE FOG SACRAMENTO 38.57N 121.47W
01/25/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

THE VISIBILITY AT DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO IS 1 MILE. IT HAD
BEEN LESS THAN 1/4 MILE FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS
EARLIER THIS MORNING.

1132 AM DENSE FOG 3 N SACRAMENTO 38.61N 121.47W
01/25/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

THE VISIBILITY AT THE SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
2 MILES. THE VISIBILITY HAD BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE FOR
MORE THAN AN HOUR AND 1/2 MILE OR LESS FOR ABOUT THREE
HOURS THIS MORNING.

1132 AM DENSE FOG STOCKTON 37.97N 121.31W
01/25/2011 SAN JOAQUIN CA ASOS

VISIBILITY AT THE STOCKTON AIRPORT IS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
THE VISIBILITY AT THIS SITE HAS BEEN AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE
SINCE 330A.

1132 AM DENSE FOG MODESTO 37.66N 120.99W
01/25/2011 STANISLAUS CA ASOS

VISIBILITY AT THE MODESTO AIRPORT IS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE
DUE TO FOG. THE VISIBILITY AT THIS SITE HAS BEEN AT OR
BELOW 1/4 MILE SINCE 130A.

&&

$$

KJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251926
SWODY1
SPC AC 251924

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT...

...CENTRAL/N FL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AN EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LEAD BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN
THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST N OF
TAMPA BAY AROUND 2030Z. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AND MLCAPE HAS LIKEWISE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG. THE
DESTABILIZATION AND A CONCURRENT GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL MAINTAIN THE ERN GULF SQUALL LINE ACROSS N/CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ALREADY OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND FAVORABLE TIMING
WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WILL INTRODUCE 30% DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS N/CENTRAL FL.

LOCAL VWP/S ALREADY SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 250 M2/S2 ACROSS CENTRAL
AND N FL. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVER
THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPARENT MCV MOVING ENEWD OVER THE
FL BIG BEND. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND QLCS MESOVORTICES WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK SCENARIO FROM 1630Z APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY.

..THOMPSON.. 01/25/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011/

...FL...
SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS LWR MS VLY/NRN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON TO SERN STATES BY 12Z WED AS IT CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SERN LA/SRN MS COAST WILL DEVELOP
ENEWD ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH NRN
FL/SRN GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

GULF MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD THRU FL PENINSULA ON STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WITH 850 WINDS TO 35-40KT BY MID AFTERNOON
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA NWD.

WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER NERN GULF AND LATEST
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IT STILL APPEARS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THE DOMINANT
AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE
AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
BETWEEN 00-06Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND
REGIME WHICH COULD DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FL
PENINSULA WHERE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE LITTLE CAP WILL
REMAIN ONCE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
MID 60S. AT THAT POINT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS
COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250
M2/S2 WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

..COASTAL CAROLINAS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THE
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG INTENSIFYING
COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINING
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROPS OF SEVERE VICINITY OUTER
BANKS AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 7

WWUS20 KWNS 251909
SEL7
SPC WW 251909
FLZ000-CWZ000-260200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
900 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
AVON PARK FLORIDA TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE NERN GULF WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE INTO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AIR MASS FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS. MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO AOA 500 J/KG ALONG WITH STEADILY
IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILES WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL SEVERE INCLUDING ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH THE SQUALL LINE...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION IS NOW
DEVELOPING IN WCENTRAL FL AND WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NERN FL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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KOTX [251845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 251845
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1045 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 NE SANDPOINT 48.38N 116.31W
01/25/2011 M4.3 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-BR-8

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NNE SANDPOINT 48.38N 116.53W
01/25/2011 M6.0 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-BR-13

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 SE NORTHPORT 48.85N 117.63W
01/25/2011 M7.6 INCH STEVENS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-ST-5

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW METALINE FALLS 48.86N 117.37W
01/25/2011 M7.0 INCH PEND OREILLE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-PO-10

0938 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 W NAPLES 48.57N 116.45W
01/25/2011 M4.0 INCH BOUNDARY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW TOTAL FROM OVERNIGHT. SPOTTER BOUNDARY18. ELEVATION
2300 FT.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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KOTX [251825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 251825
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1025 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 NE SANDPOINT 48.38N 116.31W
01/25/2011 M4.3 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-BR-8

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 SE NORTHPORT 48.85N 117.63W
01/25/2011 M7.6 INCH STEVENS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-ST-5

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NNE SANDPOINT 48.38N 116.53W
01/25/2011 M6.0 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-BR-13

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW METALINE FALLS 48.86N 117.37W
01/25/2011 M7.0 INCH PEND OREILLE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-PO-10

0938 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNE PLUMMER 48.57N 116.45W
01/25/2011 M4.0 INCH BOUNDARY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW TOTAL FROM OVERNIGHT. SPOTTER BOUNDARY18. ELEVATION
2300 FT.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0044

ACUS11 KWNS 251820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251819
FLZ000-GAZ000-251915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251819Z - 251915Z

SETUP APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG
WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL.
A WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

BROKEN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SLOWLY-MOVING
WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCTY TO NEAR KJAX. THE FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY N THROUGH LATE TODAY...WHILE
NE-SW ORIENTED QLCS...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM WNW OF KTPA...
CONTINUES E AT 40-45 KTS.

AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 40+ KT
WSWLY AT 500 MB. OVERALL WIND FIELD GRADUALLY SHOULD INCREASE...AND
CURRENT WEAKNESS IN OBSERVED FLOW AROUND 700 MB SHOULD DIMINISH...AS
UPR IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AMPLE MOISTURE /AREA PW AROUND
1.25 INCHES/...AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/SMALL LEWPS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS QLCS
CONTINUES EWD. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF QLCS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
FL...WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF SEA
BREEZE FRONT. SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW IN THIS REGION MAY
LOCALLY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVE.

..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 28608316 29578348 30238275 30668183 30568125 29778092
29148076 28168064 27048155 26928255 28608316

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KPIH [251749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 251749
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1049 AM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1048 AM SNOW 4 N LAGO 42.50N 111.68W
01/25/2011 M1.5 INCH CARIBOU ID TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. DENSE FOG OCCURRING AT OBSERVATION TIME

&&

$$

JMESSICK

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KOTX [251743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 251743
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
943 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 NE SANDPOINT 48.38N 116.31W
01/25/2011 M4.3 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-BR-8

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 SE NORTHPORT 48.85N 117.63W
01/25/2011 M7.6 INCH STEVENS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-ST-5

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NNE SANDPOINT 48.38N 116.53W
01/25/2011 M6.0 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-BR-13

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW METALINE FALLS 48.86N 117.37W
01/25/2011 M7.0 INCH PEND OREILLE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-PO-10

0938 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 W NAPLES 48.57N 116.45W
01/25/2011 M6.0 INCH BOUNDARY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW TOTAL FROM OVERNIGHT. SPOTTER BOUNDARY18. ELEVATION
2300 FT.

&&

$$

SBODNAR

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KPIH [251704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 251704
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1004 AM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM SNOW 7 S POCATELLO 42.77N 112.47W
01/25/2011 E4.0 INCH BANNOCK ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE WILD HORSE DIVIDE SNOWTEL
SITE, ELEVATION 6,490 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 32 E BLACKFOOT 43.19N 111.71W
01/25/2011 E1.5 INCH BINGHAM ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE SHEEP MOUNTAIN SNOWTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 6,571 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 2 NE WAYAN 43.00N 111.34W
01/25/2011 E1.5 INCH CARIBOU ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE SOMSEN RANCH SNOWTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 6,801 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 20 NE PRESTON 42.30N 111.60W
01/25/2011 E2.5 INCH FRANKLIN ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE EMIGRANT SUMMIT, ELEVATION
7,390 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 4 SSE RIGBY 43.62N 111.89W
01/25/2011 M3.6 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

12-HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNT. WATER EQUIVALENCY OF 0.28
INCHES.

0940 AM SNOW 14 E PRESTON 42.10N 111.60W
01/25/2011 E3.0 INCH FRANKLIN ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE FRANKLIN BASIN SNOWTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 8,170 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 11 NE MONTPELIER 42.44N 111.15W
01/25/2011 E1.5 INCH BEAR LAKE ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE GIVEOUT SNOWTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 6,932 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 30 NNW ARCO 44.03N 113.53W
01/25/2011 E1.5 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE HILTS CREEK SNOWTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 8,001 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 11 NE SPENCER 44.49N 112.03W
01/25/2011 E3.0 INCH CLARK ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE CRAB CREEK SNOTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 6,686 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 1 W ISLAND PARK 44.56N 111.36W
01/25/2011 E1.5 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE ISLAND PARK RESERVOIR SNOWTEL
SITE, ELEVATION, 6,293 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 8 NW ISLAND PARK 44.64N 111.45W
01/25/2011 E1.5 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE WHITE ELEPHANT SNOWTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 7,713 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 14 NW PRESTON 42.24N 112.07W
01/25/2011 E1.5 INCH FRANKLIN ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE OXFORD SPRINGS SNOWTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 6,740 FEET.

0940 AM SNOW 10 SSE LAVA HOT SPRINGS 42.49N 111.93W
01/25/2011 E1.5 INCH BANNOCK ID MESONET

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE SEDGWICK PEAK SNOWTEL SITE,
ELEVATION 7,897 FEET.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251659
SWODY2
SPC AC 251658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL DEVELOP A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW. STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE NC COAST IN THE MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE...AND THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD JUST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE NEW ENGLAND COASTS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FARTHER S...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S
FL DURING THE DAY.

...NC OUTER BANKS IN THE MORNING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
INVOF THE OUTER BANKS NEAR THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.THERE WILL BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS IN THE MORNING...WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. STILL...THE INLAND PENETRATION OF
THE WARM SECTOR IS IN QUESTION...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 5% AREA
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE DAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT AND WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF A TSTM AREA ATTM.

...SE FL THROUGH MIDDAY...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALREADY FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL/NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND BE
LOCATED ACROSS SE FL BY 26/12Z. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER... ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND PASSAGE OF
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE WELL TO THE N SUGGEST THAT THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL BEFORE ENDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..THOMPSON.. 01/25/2011

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KSTO [251622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 251622
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
822 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 AM DENSE FOG SACRAMENTO 38.57N 121.47W
01/25/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

VISIBILITY IN DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO 1 3/4 MILE DUE TO FOG.

0812 AM DENSE FOG STOCKTON 37.97N 121.31W
01/25/2011 SAN JOAQUIN CA ASOS

VISIBILITY AT THE STOCKTON AIRPORT BELOW 1/4 MILE DUE TO
FOG.

0812 AM DENSE FOG 3 N SACRAMENTO 38.61N 121.47W
01/25/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

VISIBILITY AT THE SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 1/4
MILE DUE TO FOG.

0812 AM DENSE FOG MODESTO 37.66N 120.99W
01/25/2011 STANISLAUS CA ASOS

VISIBILITY AT THE MODESTO AIRPORT BELOW 1/4 MILE DUE TO
FOG.

0812 AM DENSE FOG SUISUN CITY 38.25N 122.01W
01/25/2011 SOLANO CA ASOS

VISIBILITY AT SUISUN CITY BELOW 1/4 MILE DUE TO FOG.

&&

$$

KJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251611
SWODY1
SPC AC 251610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF FL...

...FL...
SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS LWR MS VLY/NRN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON TO SERN STATES BY 12Z WED AS IT CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SERN LA/SRN MS COAST WILL DEVELOP
ENEWD ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH NRN
FL/SRN GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

GULF MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD THRU FL PENINSULA ON STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WITH 850 WINDS TO 35-40KT BY MID AFTERNOON
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA NWD.

WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER NERN GULF AND LATEST
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IT STILL APPEARS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THE DOMINANT
AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE
AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
BETWEEN 00-06Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND
REGIME WHICH COULD DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FL
PENINSULA WHERE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE LITTLE CAP WILL
REMAIN ONCE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
MID 60S. AT THAT POINT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS
COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250
M2/S2 WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

..COASTAL CAROLINAS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THE
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG INTENSIFYING
COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINING
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROPS OF SEVERE VICINITY OUTER
BANKS AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 01/25/2011

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KMQT [251610]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 251610
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1109 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 10 S GRAND MARAIS 46.53N 85.98W
01/25/2011 M2.3 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR SNOWFALL

0700 AM SNOW MANISTIQUE 45.96N 86.25W
01/25/2011 M3.0 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR SNOFALL

0730 AM SNOW PAINESDALE 47.04N 88.67W
01/25/2011 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR SNOWFALL

1107 AM SNOW GERMFASK 46.25N 85.93W
01/25/2011 E5.0 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI PUBLIC

TOTAL SNOWFALL YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

PETRO

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KPIH [251549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 251549
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
849 AM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0848 AM SNOW RIGBY 43.67N 111.92W
01/25/2011 M4.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AND STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KPIH [251522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 251522
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
818 AM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM SNOW 2 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.43W
01/25/2011 M6.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL.

0720 AM SNOW 4 W CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.54W
01/25/2011 M5.0 INCH POWER ID NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL.

0817 AM SNOW 3 SE AMERICAN FALLS 42.75N 112.81W
01/25/2011 M3.0 INCH POWER ID NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KPIH [251444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 251444
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
744 AM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM SNOW 1 W CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.48W
01/25/2011 M6.5 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AND STILL SNOWING.

0720 AM SNOW 1 E CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.45W
01/25/2011 M5.3 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AND EASING AS VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED
FROM LESS THAN 1/2 MILE.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KPIH [251438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 251438
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
738 AM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM SNOW 1 S POCATELLO 42.86N 112.47W
01/25/2011 M6.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL ON EAST BENCH AND SNOWING HEAVILY WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KPIH [251427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 251427
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
726 AM MST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM SNOW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.46W
01/25/2011 M4.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

11-HOUR SNOWFALL WITH 0.30 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.
SNOWING HEAVILY AT TIME OF OBSERVATION WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE.

0711 AM SNOW 1 NE POCATELLO 42.89N 112.45W
01/25/2011 M4.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AND SNOWING HEAVILY AT TIME OF
OBSERVATION.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KSTO [251346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 251346
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
545 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 AM DENSE FOG 11 NW SACRAMENTO 38.68N 121.61W
01/25/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

1/4SM FG AT KSMF

&&

$$

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KSTO [251341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 251341
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
541 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 AM DENSE FOG MODESTO 37.66N 120.99W
01/25/2011 STANISLAUS CA ASOS

1/4SM FG AT KMOD

0454 AM DENSE FOG 6 ENE FAIRFIELD 38.29N 121.94W
01/25/2011 SOLANO CA ASOS

1/4SM FG AT KSUU

0455 AM DENSE FOG STOCKTON 37.97N 121.31W
01/25/2011 SAN JOAQUIN CA ASOS

BELOW 1/4SM FG AT KSCK

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251243
SWODY1
SPC AC 251242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM
WHILE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLONE ANALYZED ALONG THE SRN LA COAST WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH NRN
FL/SRN GA. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG MARINE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS.

...FL...

ASIDE FROM ABOVE-MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN PART OF THE
STATE...A SECONDARY WARM FRONT --CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PENINSULA-- DELINEATES THE NRN EXTENSION OF A MORE FULLY
MODIFIED AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MARK THE NRN EXTENT
OF MORE ROBUST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE
PERIOD. PERHAPS THE DOMINANT AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE
CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA BY 26/12Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR /QLCS/ WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

A MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND REGIME
MAY BECOME MANIFEST LATER TODAY ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA
INDICATE A WEAKLY CAPPED...MODESTLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. MOREOVER...THE WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
SECOND SCENARIO...THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THE
TRACK OF THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG INTENSIFYING
COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINING
OFFSHORE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD /I.E.
26/09Z-12Z/ ALONG THE NC OUTER BANKS WHERE SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 01/25/2011

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KSTO [251144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 251144
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
343 AM PST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM DENSE FOG MODESTO 37.66N 120.99W
01/25/2011 STANISLAUS CA ASOS

1/4SM FG

0330 AM DENSE FOG STOCKTON 37.97N 121.31W
01/25/2011 SAN JOAQUIN CA ASOS

1/4SM FG

0330 AM DENSE FOG SACRAMENTO 38.57N 121.47W
01/25/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

1/4SM FG

&&

$$

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KIWX [251124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 251124
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
624 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 4 NNW HUDSON 41.59N 85.11W
01/25/2011 M1.2 INCH STEUBEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CURRENTLY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100168

$$

NDM

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KIWX [251113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 251113
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
613 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW MONROEVILLE 40.97N 84.87W
01/25/2011 M2.0 INCH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

30 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100167

$$

NDM

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KIWX [251100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 251100
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
559 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0557 AM SNOW N FORT WAYNE 41.08N 85.13W
01/25/2011 M1.7 INCH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR DUPONT ROAD AND INTERSTATE 69. 30 HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100166

$$

NDM

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250955
SWOD48
SPC AC 250955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL STATES. ON FRIDAY/DAY 4...THE
GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD APPROACHING TX ON SATURDAY/DAY 5.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE MODELS RETURN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NWD INTO SOUTH AND CNTRL TX. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ON THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND IN EAST TX
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SEEMINGLY BE POSSIBLE IF SFC DEWPOINTS CAN REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F ACROSS PARTS OF TX. FROM SUNDAY/DAY 6 TO TUESDAY/DAY
8...THE MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN
STATES AND KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN TX EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
MOISTURE CAN RETURN NWD AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAN MOVE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS AND WILL NOT ISSUE A SEVERE THREAT AREA ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 01/25/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250719
SWODY3
SPC AC 250719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
NWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY WLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED.
FOR THIS REASON...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CONUS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 01/25/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250607
SWODY2
SPC AC 250607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AND CNTRL FL/ERN CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEWD
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF GA...SC AND NC WITH THE WARM SECTOR
REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE. SFC DEWPOINTS JUST INLAND ACROSS SC COULD
REACH THE 50S F WITH LOW 60S F POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A WELL-DEFINED 90 TO 110 KT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST ACROSS
FAR ERN NC BEFORE 18Z AS THE SFC LOW PASSES BY.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO FLORIDA FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL AND SRN
FL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S F WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
EXIST. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS SRN FL AND DRIES THE
AIRMASS OUT.

..BROYLES.. 01/25/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250547
SWODY1
SPC AC 250546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW WILL EXIST WITHIN A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. POSITIVELY TILTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY TODAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD/TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. TIED TO THIS ADVANCING TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT/ANTICIPATED SQUALL LINE.

...FL PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY...WITH SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS LATER TONIGHT ALONG/OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY
QUICK AIRMASS MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...MID/SOME
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...WITH LOWER/SOME MID 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR
SEVERE TSTMS...WITH AS MUCH AS 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE
DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WITHIN A
MOISTENING/WEAKLY INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER...WELL AHEAD OF WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE/PERHAPS INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...AHEAD OF
/AND ASSOCIATED WITH/ AN INLAND ADVANCING SQUALL LINE...AS
SEMI-DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST/SOUTH OF SUCH A CONVECTIVE LINE. RELATIVELY STRONG/VEERING WIND
PROFILES /DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT/ ACCENTUATED BY 0-1 KM SRH
AROUND 150-250 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING BOTH SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ALL...IT APPEARS THE RELATIVELY GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY MORE SO TONIGHT.

..GUYER/COHEN/GRAMS.. 01/25/2011

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