SWODY2
SPC AC 251658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL DEVELOP A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW. STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE NC COAST IN THE MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE...AND THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD JUST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE NEW ENGLAND COASTS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FARTHER S...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S
FL DURING THE DAY.
...NC OUTER BANKS IN THE MORNING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
INVOF THE OUTER BANKS NEAR THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.THERE WILL BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS IN THE MORNING...WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. STILL...THE INLAND PENETRATION OF
THE WARM SECTOR IS IN QUESTION...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 5% AREA
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE DAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT AND WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF A TSTM AREA ATTM.
...SE FL THROUGH MIDDAY...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALREADY FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL/NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND BE
LOCATED ACROSS SE FL BY 26/12Z. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER... ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND PASSAGE OF
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE WELL TO THE N SUGGEST THAT THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL BEFORE ENDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
..THOMPSON.. 01/25/2011
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