Sunday, September 12, 2010

KKEY [130152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 130152
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
951 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0739 PM WATER SPOUT 5 NNW CUDJOE KEY 24.74N 81.53W
09/12/2010 GMZ032 FL PUBLIC

A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CUDJOE KEY. THE VISIBLE FUNNEL EXTENDED
THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY TO THE WATER SURFACE. DURATION
4 MINUTES.


&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KDVN [130055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDVN 130055
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
755 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND GST NEW VIENNA 42.55N 91.11W
09/12/2010 E50.00 MPH DUBUQUE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG PEOSTA 42.45N 90.85W
09/12/2010 DUBUQUE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEMI-TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 20 NEAR PEOSTA.

0520 PM TSTM WND GST DUBUQUE 42.50N 90.69W
09/12/2010 M85.00 MPH DUBUQUE IA ASOS

0555 PM TSTM WND GST 1 ENE HANOVER 42.26N 90.27W
09/12/2010 E70.00 MPH JO DAVIESS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS ESTIMATED 60-70 MPH.

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE HANOVER 42.26N 90.27W
09/12/2010 JO DAVIESS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.


&&

$$

TLG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130038
SWODY1
SPC AC 130037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN MI...
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT AS IT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS LOWER MI THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...STEEP DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE
PROFILES AS SEEN ON UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND STRONG FORCING SHOULD
MAINTAIN SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

...ERN IA...NRN IL...
00Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN WIND BUT
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS NOW ONGOING OVER NRN IL MAY
PERSIST FOR A WHILE AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN SUCH FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND LOW RH BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE WLY FEED OF
RELATIVELY WARM/UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER...A FEW CORES MAY REGENERATE
MAINLY ACROSS FAR NRN IL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

..JEWELL.. 09/13/2010

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KMLB [130015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 130015
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 4 NW APOPKA 28.73N 81.56W
09/12/2010 E0.25 INCH ORANGE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED PEA-SIZED HAIL OBSERVED FROM 745-750 PM EDT.


&&

$$

ARB

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KAPX [122339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 122339
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND GST MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.73W
09/12/2010 E50 MPH EMMET MI EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000311

$$

JZ

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KDVN [122313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122313
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM TSTM WND GST 1 ENE HANOVER 42.26N 90.27W
09/12/2010 E70 MPH JO DAVIESS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS ESTIMATED 60-70 MPH.

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE HANOVER 42.26N 90.27W
09/12/2010 JO DAVIESS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.


&&

$$

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KAPX [122310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 122310
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
710 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 PM HAIL DAFTER 46.37N 84.43W
09/12/2010 M0.70 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000310

$$

JZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1815

ACUS11 KWNS 122309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122308
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IA...EXTREME SWRN WI AND NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122308Z - 130015Z

...SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...

ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE MS RIVER SE OF KDBQ HAS PRODUCED
MEASURED 74 KT WIND GUSTS AT DUBUQUE AIRPORT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS AGITATED CUMULUS UPSTREAM FROM THIS CELL TO NEAR WATERLOO WITH
ELEVATED STORMS TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE IA/WI BORDER N
OF KDBQ.

LEADING WELL-ESTABLISHED STORM MAY CONTINUE ESE INTO NCNTRL IL IN
WNW DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW REGIME AS IT IS FED FROM THE WEST BY JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN THE STORM. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. QUESTION BECOMES IF
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM. LATEST WRF-NMM4KM SUGGESTS
THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY FORM THIS EVENING AND IF THIS
OCCURS...A CONVECTIVE WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..RACY.. 09/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 42759106 42438964 42308897 42048884 41778889 41608916
41718973 41899028 42159104 42329132 42449129 42639135
42759106

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KDVN [122232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122232
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
531 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND GST DUBUQUE 42.50N 90.69W
09/12/2010 M85 MPH DUBUQUE IA ASOS


&&

$$

TLG

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KDVN [122219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122219
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
519 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG PEOSTA 42.45N 90.85W
09/12/2010 DUBUQUE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEMI-TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 20 NEAR PEOSTA.


&&

$$

TLG

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KMQT [122216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMQT 122216
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
616 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL GULLIVER 45.99N 86.01W
09/12/2010 M0.50 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KMQT [122207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 122207
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
606 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL 1 N MANISTIQUE 45.97N 86.25W
09/12/2010 M0.50 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KDVN [122158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 122158
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
457 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND GST NEW VIENNA 42.55N 91.11W
09/12/2010 E50 MPH DUBUQUE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

TLG

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KMQT [122157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMQT 122157
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
556 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 11 N MANISTIQUE 46.12N 86.27W
09/12/2010 M1.00 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KJAX [122147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 122147
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
547 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW BUNNELL 29.51N 81.31W
09/12/2010 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN BLOCKING THE ROADWAY AT 100 ESPANOLA ROAD.


&&

$$

JHESS

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KMQT [122145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 122145
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
545 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 11 N MANISTIQUE 46.12N 86.27W
09/12/2010 M1.00 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KAPX [122141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 122141
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
541 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL RACO 46.37N 84.72W
09/12/2010 E1.75 INCH CHIPPEWA MI BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000309

$$

AJS

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KAPX [122137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 122137
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
537 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 2 S SAULT STE. MARIE 46.46N 84.37W
09/12/2010 E0.75 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000308

$$

AJS

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KAPX [122130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 122130
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
529 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 2 W DAFTER 46.37N 84.47W
09/12/2010 E1.50 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1000307

$$

AJS

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KLMK [122111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 122111
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
511 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0359 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE RUSSELL SPRINGS 37.06N 85.07W
09/11/2010 RUSSELL KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

0404 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW JAMESTOWN 36.86N 85.14W
09/11/2010 RUSSELL KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000549 LMK1000548

$$

13

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KMQT [122031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 122031
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 2 S MCMILLAN 46.31N 85.69W
09/12/2010 M0.50 INCH LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMWIX

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121959
SWODY1
SPC AC 121957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
MINOR CHANGES MADE ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF THE GENERAL TSTM AREA AND
5 PERCENT PROBABILITY LINES FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 18Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD REACHED ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH THE TRAILING PORTION EXTENDING INTO NRN IA. ANALYSES
INDICATED A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM NWRN WI TO SRN ND.
LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL-NERN WI INTO UPPER MI...COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 C AT 500 MB/ SPREADING ESEWD WITH
ATTENDANT TROUGH AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
CLOUD TOPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH LEVELS COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AS RECENTLY OBSERVED IN SCHOOLCRAFT AND IRON COUNTIES MI
PER LIGHTNING DATA.

DESPITE LOWER OBSERVED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO
MIXING AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE
SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 500 J PER
KG/ THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER ASCENT
ACROSS UPPER MI AND ADJACENT FAR NRN WI WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...MIDWEST...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND GENERAL
TSTM AREA OVER THIS REGION.

...FAR SERN GA/NRN FL AND SRN LA/SERN TX...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS OVER FAR SERN GA INTO NRN FL.
THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH TSTMS OVER SRN LA TO SERN TX WERE LOCATED
ALONG A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO ADVANCE SWD. STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS AND LAKE/SEA BREEZES. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ASIDE FROM A FEW
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION
OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 09/12/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010/

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...

A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE
ESEWD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...ENHANCING A BAND OF DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT ALONG SYSTEM TRACK. AT THE SURFACE...LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD INTO S-CNTRL
MN. BY MID AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALIGNED
IN MORE OF AN ENE-WSW FASHION FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI INTO
NRN WI...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY SHOW THAT
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND PW VALUES WELL BELOW AN INCH. HOWEVER...
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT NOTABLE MID-TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
40-50 KT OF DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A SECONDARY...WEAKER CONFLUENCE BAND DEVELOPING FROM NRN/CNTRL IA TO
ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER MAY ALSO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM FORMATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN A SIMILAR
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THIS AREA WILL BE
MORE WEAKLY FORCED THAN ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONT/WIND SHIFT...
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

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KMRX [121924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 121924
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG KINGSTON 35.87N 84.51W
09/11/2010 ROANE TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEW TREES DOWN.


&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121728
SWODY2
SPC AC 121726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS MAINTAIN A LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH DAY 2. A COUPLE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK SEWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS NY INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION/LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
WNWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC STATES...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF MID-LOWER MO VALLEY...
A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY TRACKING ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
BASIN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD FROM WY
INTO SD/NEB BY 14/00Z...AND THEN REACH IA/LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. A WEAKER IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
REGION...MAY PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF GENERALLY E-W BOUNDARIES
WILL EXTEND FROM IA/NRN MO INTO NEB AND NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER AT
12Z MONDAY. THE NEB PORTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE FOCI FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS WAA
INCREASES ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES ALOFT WITH APPROACH OF WY IMPULSE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTENING /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SPREADING
NWD TO NEB/ AND SURFACE HEATING BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ EXTENDING EWD TO IA/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
PROMOTE MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH 35-50 EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST BOTH MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING A THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
STRENGTHENING/VEERING NOCTURNAL LLJ INTO NEB TO IA MONDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS
OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND QPF ACROSS NRN KS INTO NEB. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SWD THROUGH THE REST OF KS...BUT WEAKER
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF EVENTS...AND THUS
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...NORTHEAST STATES/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF EWD ADVANCING WIND SHIFTS ATTENDANT TO A
PAIR OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS THIS REGION ON DAY 2.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MODERATELY STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W-NWLY FLOW...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..PETERS.. 09/12/2010

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KJKL [121633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 121633
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM HEAVY RAIN SOMERSET 37.08N 84.61W
09/11/2010 M5.00 INCH PULASKI KY PUBLIC


&&

$$

TBREWER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121615
SWODY1
SPC AC 121613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...

A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE
ESEWD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...ENHANCING A BAND OF DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT ALONG SYSTEM TRACK. AT THE SURFACE...LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD INTO S-CNTRL
MN. BY MID AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALIGNED
IN MORE OF AN ENE-WSW FASHION FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI INTO
NRN WI...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY SHOW THAT
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND PW VALUES WELL BELOW AN INCH. HOWEVER...
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT NOTABLE MID-TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
40-50 KT OF DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A SECONDARY...WEAKER CONFLUENCE BAND DEVELOPING FROM NRN/CNTRL IA TO
ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER MAY ALSO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM FORMATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN A SIMILAR
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THIS AREA WILL BE
MORE WEAKLY FORCED THAN ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONT/WIND SHIFT...
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/12/2010

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KJKL [121533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 121533
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1133 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG THOUSANDSTICKS 37.19N 83.43W
09/11/2010 LESLIE KY CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER REPORTED APPROXIMATELY 20 TREE LIMBS IN HIS
YARD...4 OF WHICH MEASURED 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER.


&&

$$

TBREWER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121239
SWODY1
SPC AC 121237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MI...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL JET MAX TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI...AND
UPPER/LOWER MI. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING OVER UPPER
MI...SPREADING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.

...CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE BULK OF
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY BEHIND STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY LATER TODAY OVER
EASTERN NC/SC AS A RESULT OF SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/12/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120849
SWOD48
SPC AC 120848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE.
THE MAIN SEVERE FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY.
WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING A RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSE THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT INTERCEPTS A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SCENARIO
WILL PERHAPS BE CENTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/KS/IA/MO.
AFOREMENTIONED TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES PRECLUDES
CONSIDERATION OF A /30 PERCENT CALIBER/ SEVERE RISK AREA.

THEREAFTER...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
A SOUTHWARD SHUNTED WARM/MOIST SECTOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD OTHERWISE KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED
INTO THE WEEKEND.

..GUYER.. 09/12/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120730
SWODY3
SPC AC 120729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS ON TUESDAY. WHILE SPECIFIC TIMING OF LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURES
VARIES...00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
OTHERWISE RETURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD AID
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN/DESTABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED WITH NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT.
FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS PORTION OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE/INSTABILITY AXIS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS...MAY BE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING/MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE
THROUGH PEAK HEATING. AS SUCH...THE PROSPECTS FOR APPRECIABLE
VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT /AND TIMING THEREOF/ ARE QUESTIONABLE IN
SPITE OF AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION.

WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT /SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS/
IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WILL DEFER TO
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR POTENTIAL INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES/LIMITATIONS.

..GUYER.. 09/12/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120558
SWODY2
SPC AC 120557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CONUS ON MONDAY. GRADUAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGHING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A NORTHWARD RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. WHILE APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE LACKING...IT IS PROBABLE THAT SUFFICIENT MASS
CONVERGENCE/MIXING IN VICINITY OF A WEST-EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
KS/SOUTHERN NEB. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...VEERING WIND PROFILES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 30-35
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS
SHOULD EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AS A MODERATE LOW
LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY INCREASES.

...NORTHEAST STATES/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY STRONG/NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 09/12/2010

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KCHS [120557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 120557
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM HAIL 2 SW BLITCHTON 32.18N 81.46W
09/12/2010 E0.50 INCH BRYAN GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

AN OFFICER REPORTED HALF INCH HAIL NEAR INTERSECTION OF
US-280 AND I-16.


&&

$$

JRL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 120523
SWODY1
SPC AC 120522

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN CAROLINAS/SE GA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD TODAY. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ERN CAROLINAS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT 12Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING IN
WILMINGTON NC AND CHARLESTON SC SHOW MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE
LINE-SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

...GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INCREASE LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS NRN LAKE MI...NRN LOWER MI AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE AS SFC TEMPS WARM BENEATH A
COLD POCKET ALOFT. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 50 TO 55 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...500 MB TEMPS OF -18C TO-20C AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/12/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120519
SWODY1
SPC AC 120517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN CAROLINAS/SE GA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD TODAY. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ERN CAROLINAS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT 12Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING IN
WILMINGTON NC AND CHARLESTON SC SHOW MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE
LINE-SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

...GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO INCREASE LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS NRN LAKE MI...NRN LOWER MI AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE AS SFC TEMPS WARM BENEATH A
COLD POCKET ALOFT. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 50 TO 55 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...500 MB TEMPS OF -18C TO-20C AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/12/2010

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KCHS [120515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 120515
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 AM HAIL 1 S DAISY 32.14N 81.83W
09/12/2010 E0.88 INCH EVANS GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.


&&

$$

JRL

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