DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240044
SWODY1
SPC AC 240041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER OH VALLEY INTO ARKLATEX...

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DEVELOPING
SEWD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION TONIGHT WHILE
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD THROUGH
ERN KS INTO WRN PARTS OF OK/TX WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO ARKLATEX BY MONDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND GPS IPW DATA SHOW MOISTURE STEADILY
INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX INTO ERN OK/WRN AR ALONG AND S OF
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT OVER
N-CNTRL OK ESEWD INTO CNTRL MS. SWLY LLJ OBSERVED FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT /EVEN
INTENSIFY/ WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE NEWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. THIS PROCESS IS OCCURRING BENEATH A
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ABOVE 600 MB /PER 00Z SHV AND LIT SOUNDINGS/
WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER.

HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF MIDLEVEL
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A NET COOLING OF THIS WARM LAYER
WITH ELEVATED TSTMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER
24/06Z WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH LLJ AXIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231947
SWODY1
SPC AC 231944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH...
SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN TX INTO AR/LOWER OH VALLEY WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP ASCENT
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A SRN STREAM IMPULSE TRACKING
ENEWD ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT INCREASING MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD FROM NERN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH. EARLY
AFTERNOON TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CAPPING EML REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN SHALLOW CONVECTION SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR TSTMS...AS MID LEVELS COOL
ATOP PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. A FEW STRONGER CORES MAY BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW.

..PETERS/EVANS.. 11/23/2008

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KRIW [231936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 231936
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1222 PM MDT SUN NOV 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 AM SNOW DUBOIS 9.7 WNW 43.57N 109.82W
11/23/2008 M0.50 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1053 AM SNOW BARNUM 5 NNW 43.73N 106.93W
11/23/2008 M1.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1053 AM SNOW KAYCEE 17 NNW 43.93N 106.75W
11/23/2008 M0.30 INCHES JOHNSON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1053 AM SNOW THAYNE 4.2 NNE 42.97N 110.95W
11/23/2008 M1.30 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1054 AM SNOW MOOSE .4 S 43.65N 110.71W
11/23/2008 M1.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1055 AM SNOW JACKSON 5.3 NW 43.53N 110.82W
11/23/2008 M0.70 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1055 AM SNOW TEN SLEEP 4.8 NNW 44.10N 107.45W
11/23/2008 M0.50 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1214 PM SNOW BOULDER 24 ESE 42.65N 109.26W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

1214 PM SNOW GUNSIGHT PASS SNOTEL 43.38N 109.88W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

GUNSIGHT PASS SNOTEL

1214 PM SNOW BONDURANT 14 E 43.17N 110.14W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

LOOMIS PARK SNOTEL

1214 PM SNOW CROWHEART 14 W 43.28N 109.45W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

1214 PM SNOW LANDER 18 W 42.87N 109.09W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

1215 PM SNOW DUBOIS 6 WSW 43.50N 109.75W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

LITTLE WARM SNOTEL

1215 PM SNOW DUBOIS 25 NW 43.75N 110.06W
11/23/2008 E3.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL

1215 PM SNOW MAYOWORTH 14 WNW 43.89N 107.06W
11/23/2008 E5.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL

1215 PM SNOW GRAVE SPRINGS SNOTEL 43.47N 107.24W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

GRAVE SPRINGS SNOTEL

1216 PM SNOW BUFFALO 24 SW 44.16N 107.13W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL

1216 PM SNOW SHELL 18 E 44.50N 107.43W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

SHELL CREEK SNOTEL

1216 PM SNOW CANYON 1 WSW 44.72N 110.51W
11/23/2008 E2.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

CANYON SNOTEL

1216 PM SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 5 N 44.21N 110.67W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL

1216 PM SNOW PAHASKA 10 W 44.48N 110.16W
11/23/2008 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW PAHASKA 4 WSW 44.48N 110.04W
11/23/2008 E5.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW OLD FAITHFUL 14 ESE 44.37N 110.58W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL

1217 PM HEAVY SNOW MORAN JUNCTION 25 NE 44.15N 110.22W
11/23/2008 E6.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW WAPITI 19 WSW 44.38N 109.79W
11/23/2008 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BLACKWATER SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW DUBOIS 11 N 43.70N 109.67W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW PAHASKA 14 NE 44.65N 109.78W
11/23/2008 E3.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

EVENING STAR SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW CODY 18 SW 44.30N 109.24W
11/23/2008 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

MARQUETTE SNOTEL

1218 PM SNOW PAHASKA 16 N 44.73N 109.91W
11/23/2008 E3.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

PARKER PEAK SNOTEL

1218 PM SNOW CLARK 26 WSW 44.80N 109.66W
11/23/2008 E3.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

WOLVERINE SNOTEL

1218 PM SNOW CODY 56 SW 43.93N 109.82W
11/23/2008 E3.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

YOUNTS PEAK SNOTEL

1218 PM SNOW AFTON 8 SE 42.65N 110.81W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL

1218 PM SNOW KEMMERER 26 N 42.15N 110.68W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

HAMS FORK SNOTEL

1218 PM SNOW KEMMERER 36 N 42.30N 110.68W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL

1218 PM SNOW AFTON 17 E 42.76N 110.59W
11/23/2008 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL

1219 PM SNOW AFTON 8 NE 42.82N 110.84W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL

1219 PM SNOW MORAN JUNCTION 8 NNE 43.95N 110.45W
11/23/2008 E3.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

BASE CAMP SNOTEL

1219 PM SNOW BONDURANT 10 N 43.34N 110.43W
11/23/2008 E1.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRANITE CREEK SNOTEL

1219 PM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 8 W 44.13N 110.83W
11/23/2008 E6.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL

1219 PM HEAVY SNOW ALTA 6 ENE 43.78N 110.93W
11/23/2008 E6.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL

1219 PM SNOW BONDURANT 20 NE 43.39N 110.13W
11/23/2008 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL

1220 PM SNOW JACKSON 8 WNW 43.52N 110.91W
11/23/2008 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL

1220 PM HEAVY SNOW SNAKE RIVER RGR STN 44.13N 110.66W
11/23/2008 M6.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY SPOTTER-GOV.

1220 PM SNOW DUBOIS 43.53N 109.65W
11/23/2008 M0.20 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1221 PM SNOW OLD FAITHFUL RGR STN 44.45N 110.83W
11/23/2008 M1.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1221 PM HEAVY SNOW PAHASKA 44.50N 109.96W
11/23/2008 M6.00 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1222 PM SNOW TEN SLEEP 16SSE 43.81N 107.36W
11/23/2008 M0.60 INCHES WASHAKIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1222 PM SNOW THAYNE 1 SE 42.90N 110.98W
11/23/2008 M0.80 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231729
SWODY2
SPC AC 231727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OVER
MANITOBA/NWRN ALBERTA AT 12Z MONDAY WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TO OH VALLEY DURING DAY 2 PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE OH/
TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
THE OH/TN VALLEYS REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REACHING CENTRAL AL...SRN LA TO THE
MIDDLE TX COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.

...UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA/SWRN MS...
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD OH/TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...A LOBE
OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
COMBINED WITH A SRN STREAM IMPULSE EMANATING FROM NWRN MEXICO SHOULD
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN A MID LEVEL
INVERSION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS ERN TX/
LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE SOME COOLING AT MID LEVELS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...THE LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING DUE TO
EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/.

AT 12Z MONDAY...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM NERN
TX INTO AR. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
WEAK ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN ZONE OF
CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME SURFACE HEATING. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM
SHEAR 20-25 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KT FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE.

..PETERS.. 11/23/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231621
SWODY1
SPC AC 231618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH...
MODEST RETURN FLOW PATTERN OF GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY INTO
ERN TX...WHICH WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPANDING
AREA OF SURFACE-H85 MOISTURE AND INCREASING DEEP ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD FROM NERN TX INTO THE
MID SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
UNDER CAPPING EML TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ARKLATEX. A FEW STRONGER
CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 11/23/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231259
SWODY1
SPC AC 231256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW NEAR 140W EVOLVES INTO AN UPR LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CA CST. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE NRN HI PLNS WILL AMPLIFY
ESE INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLY AS DEEP DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM WITHDRAWS
FARTHER N INTO LABRADOR. PLNS TROUGH WILL PARTLY PHASE WITH UPR LOW
NOW IN SK/MB...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
NRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS TODAY
...AND THE MID MS VLY/SRN PLNS OVERNIGHT.

...ARKLATEX INTO LWR MS VLY...
SFC AND SATELLITE PW DATA SHOW LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NNE ACROSS E TX. AMPLIFICATION OF PLNS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM E TX INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL
ENHANCE NEWD MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
INITIALLY...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THUS...NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED/SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT FROM THE
ARKLATEX NE INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS...SUPPORTING CONTINUED NEWD
MOISTURE FLUX. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPENING MID LVL
LAPSE RATES SPREADING E AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY DEEPENING UNSTABLE
LAYER...WHERE MUCAPE MAY APPROACH 500-600 J/KG. THIS
DESTABILIZATION...ALONG WITH INCREASING UVV...MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS BASED AROUND 850 MB LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LWR MS VLY. MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR THREAT...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS.

..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 11/23/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230843
SWOD48
SPC AC 230842

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHIFTING AN UPPER
TROUGH EWD FROM CA ON WED/DAY 4 INTO THE KS/OK AREA BY FRI/DAY 6.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS YIELDS A CLOSED LOW ON THE ECMWF ON FRI...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE ON THE MREF. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT VARIES...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUPPORT RICHER GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO TX AND THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY FRI/FRI
NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN TX ON FRI AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENCES OF MODEL
FEATURES PRECLUDE A SEVERE OUTLOOK ATTM.

..IMY.. 11/23/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230647
SWODY3
SPC AC 230644

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED ACROSS
THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING CA.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A RIDGE WILL COVER THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS AND INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..IMY.. 11/23/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230541
SWODY2
SPC AC 230540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN/WI SWD INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN AMPLIFY ESEWD INTO THE ERN CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS A 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES
SEWD ALONG THE SWRN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. STRONG MASS
CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION WILL SUPPORT THIS PCPN EXPANDING EWD
INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE SLOWLY MOISTENING...STABLE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SHOULD BE UNSUPPORTIVE OF DEEP ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR LIGHTNING.

FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL REGION...THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHIFTING EWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MUCAPES AROUND 500 MB MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH THE REGION.

..IMY.. 11/23/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230529
SWODY1
SPC AC 230525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ORE/ID AS OF 23/04Z WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS IT PHASES WITH INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL
CANADA. THESE PHASED SYSTEMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
MID MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW
EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS
TODAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL/LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX...

23/00Z SOUNDINGS OVER S TX AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE TX COAST
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND PW VALUES OVER ONE
INCH. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ
TODAY FROM ERN TX INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU REGION. THIS WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE NEWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE
OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. INITIALLY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
BENEATH QUITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ONLY SHALLOW LAYER OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TODAY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. AS SUCH...NO TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT /EVEN INTENSIFY/ FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...SUPPORTING CONTINUED
MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
WITH THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS RESULTING IN A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING BUOYANCY LAYER WHERE MUCAPE MAY APPROACH 500-600 J/KG.
THIS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN CONCERT WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT /BASED AROUND 850 MB/ LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. WHILE
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 11/23/2008

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