SWODY2
SPC AC 231727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OVER
MANITOBA/NWRN ALBERTA AT 12Z MONDAY WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TO OH VALLEY DURING DAY 2 PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE OH/
TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
THE OH/TN VALLEYS REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REACHING CENTRAL AL...SRN LA TO THE
MIDDLE TX COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
...UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA/SWRN MS...
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD OH/TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...A LOBE
OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
COMBINED WITH A SRN STREAM IMPULSE EMANATING FROM NWRN MEXICO SHOULD
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN A MID LEVEL
INVERSION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS ERN TX/
LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE SOME COOLING AT MID LEVELS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...THE LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING DUE TO
EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/.
AT 12Z MONDAY...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM NERN
TX INTO AR. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
WEAK ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN ZONE OF
CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME SURFACE HEATING. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM
SHEAR 20-25 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KT FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE.
..PETERS.. 11/23/2008
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