Tuesday, March 17, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180042
SWODY1
SPC AC 180039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S FL...

BASED ON 00Z MFL/EYW SOUNDINGS...ONGOING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.

...LOWER MO VALLEY...

A NOCTURNAL LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT FROM NWRN TX INTO ERN KS. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RATHER STEEP...DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA REGIME OVERNIGHT.

..MEAD.. 03/18/2009

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KSTO [172354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KSTO 172354
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
453 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0932 AM NON-TSTM WND GST REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
03/16/2009 M47.00 MPH SHASTA CA ASOS

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INCREASED AT THE REDDING ASOS ONCE
AGAIN AROUND 1 AM ON 3/16. THESE WINDS CONTINUED UNTIL
NEARLY 6 PM...WITH THE GUSTS PRIMARILY RANGING BETWEEN 30
AND 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUST MEASURED BY THE KRDD
ASOS OCCURRED AT 932 AM...WITH 47 MPH.

0240 PM FLOOD REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
03/16/2009 SHASTA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 1 FATALITY AND NUMEROUS
ACCIDENTS IN THE REDDING AREA DUE TO ROADWAY FLOODING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVER 4 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN LOCALLY
FELL IN 4 HOURS.

0240 PM FLOOD REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
03/16/2009 SHASTA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 1 FATALITY AND SEVERAL
ACCIDENTS IN THE REDDING AREA. OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN
LOCALLY FELL IN 4 HOURS.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE REDDING 40.60N 122.35W
03/17/2009 M1.81 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-8 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL OF
1.81 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IN FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 3/16.

0650 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N REDDING 40.62N 122.36W
03/17/2009 M4.46 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-16 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL
OF 4.46 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH IT ALL FALLING BEFORE 4 PM
ON 3/16.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NW REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
03/17/2009 M1.05 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-21 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL
OF 1.05 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 3/16.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW REDDING 40.54N 122.47W
03/17/2009 M1.98 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-20 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL
OF 1.98 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 3/16.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 NNE REDDING 40.67N 122.31W
03/17/2009 M3.68 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-10 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL
OF 3.68 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 3/16.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N REDDING 40.62N 122.36W
03/17/2009 M3.74 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-11 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL
OF 3.74 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT FALLING
THE AFTERNOON OF 3/16.

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW REDDING 40.60N 122.38W
03/17/2009 M3.71 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-9 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL OF
3.71...WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON OF 3/16.

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N REDDING 40.62N 122.36W
03/17/2009 M3.63 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-13 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL
OF 3.63 INCHES...WITH ALL FALLING BEFORE 730 PM ON 3/16.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE REDDING 40.60N 122.35W
03/17/2009 M2.67 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER SH-22 REPORTED A 24 HOUR PRECIP TOTAL
OF 2.67 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH 2.3 INCHES FALLING BETWEEN
1423 HOURS AND 1635 HOURS ON 3/16. THEY ALSO REPORTED 6
HOMES IN THE LOCAL AREA FLOODED.


&&

$$

CPALMER

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KBYZ [172154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 172154
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
353 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW 19 NW SILVER GATE 45.22N 110.24W
03/17/2009 M9.1 INCH PARK MT MESONET

MONUMENT PEAK SNOTEL

0700 AM SNOW 17 ESE CHICO 45.22N 110.39W
03/17/2009 M8.0 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

CHICO HOT SPRINGS

0700 AM SNOW 6 ESE LIVINGSTON 45.63N 110.45W
03/17/2009 M8.0 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 4 E EMIGRANT 45.37N 110.67W
03/17/2009 M8.0 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW 7 NE COLUMBUS 45.71N 109.15W
03/17/2009 M10.0 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 AM SNOW 3 NNW COLUMBUS 45.68N 109.27W
03/17/2009 M10.0 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW SE NYE 45.45N 109.82W
03/17/2009 M8.1 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM SNOW SE NYE 45.45N 109.82W
03/17/2009 E8.0 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW S ABSAROKEE 45.52N 109.44W
03/17/2009 M7.0 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 AM SNOW 3 SW REED POINT 45.67N 109.59W
03/17/2009 M6.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW SSE MOLT 45.87N 108.93W
03/17/2009 M6.0 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BRS

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KBOI [172032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 172032
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
231 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WAGONTIRE 43.34N 119.88W
03/16/2009 M45 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

RAWS SITE

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE DIAMOND 43.10N 118.49W
03/16/2009 M56 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

RIDDLE RAWS

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 11 S DIAMOND 42.86N 118.67W
03/16/2009 HARNEY OR MESONET

MOON HILL RAWS

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 S DENIO 41.84N 118.63W
03/16/2009 XXX XX MESONET

BASQUE HILLS RAWS G55 MPH

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 20 WNW FRENCHGLEN 42.97N 119.25W
03/16/2009 HARNEY OR MESONET

FOSTER FLAT RAWS G42

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 18 NNE ANDREWS 42.71N 118.51W
03/16/2009 HARNEY OR MESONET

LITTLE MCCOY CREEK RAWS

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 17 S FRENCHGLEN 42.58N 118.95W
03/16/2009 HARNEY OR ASOS

ROME ASOS G48

0209 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 19 ESE RIDDLE 42.07N 115.79W
03/16/2009 OWYHEE ID MESONET

POLE CREEK RAWS G51


&&

$$

GSKARI

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KFFC [172000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 172000
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TORNADO 1 NW PUTNAM 32.27N 84.43W
03/15/2009 F0 MARION GA EMERGENCY MNGR

PROBABLE WEAK TORNADO WITH EF0 INTENSITY TOUCHED DOWN 1
MILE NW OF PUTNAM AND TRAVELED ENE INTO FAR WESTERN
SCHLEY COUNTY. TOTAL PATH LENGTH WAS 2 MILES. PATH WIDTH
100 YARDS. ONE TIN OUTBUILDING WAS DESTROYED AND PATIO
FURNITURE WAS OVERTURNED NEAR PUTNAM. 500 TREES WERE
SNAPPED OR UPROOTED IN FAR WESTERN SCHLEY COUNTY
NORTHEAST OF PUTNAM.


&&

$$

SNELSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171923
SWODY1
SPC AC 171921

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO PREV FCST. /RACY


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2009/
A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION TODAY
WITH RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTH FL...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN BOTH AREAS
APPEAR TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. /HART/JEWELL

..RACY/HART/JEWELL.. 03/17/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171657
SWODY2
SPC AC 171655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/CNTRL CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE
GRTLKS/MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCD CDFNT WILL MOVE S/SEWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND...MIDWEST...OH VLY AND THE SRN PLNS THROUGH THE DAY AND BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

...OZARKS NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST...
THOUGH SFC DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RECOVERING ACROSS THE REGION...MOIST
LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
QUITE STEEP AND AS MODEST COLUMN MOISTENING OCCURS ASSOCD WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPR WAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED BUOYANCY...
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH ONLY WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS
EXPECTED AT BEST. THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS FROM PARTS OF WRN IND SWWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

...S FL...
MODIFIED S ATLANTIC BOUNDARY LAYER...EXHIBITING WEAK LAPSE
RATES/MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS S FL ON
WEDNESDAY. SCTD DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGIME...BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR.

..RACY.. 03/17/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171615
SWODY1
SPC AC 171611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION TODAY
WITH RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTH FL...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN BOTH AREAS
APPEAR TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/17/2009

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KSTO [171352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 171352
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
640 AM PDT TUE MAR 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM FLOOD REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
03/16/2009 SHASTA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 1 FATALITY AND NUMEROUS
ACCIDENTS IN THE REDDING AREA DUE TO ROADWAY FLOODING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVER 4 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN LOCALLY
FELL IN 4 HOURS.


&&

$$

DANG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171245
SWODY1
SPC AC 171242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COAST...THE OVERALL FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME NEARLY
ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. THE BELT OF STRONGEST WLYS WILL LIE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING E FROM MANITOBA TO ONTARIO AND HUDSON
BAY...WITH SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE FAR N-CNTRL
CONUS COMMENCING NEAR 12Z/WED. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN END OF THIS
BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE KEYS BY EARLY
WED.

...SRN FL...
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS EVIDENCED IN 12Z RAOBS/ WILL
EFFECTIVELY LIMIT BOTH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J
PER KG/ AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH INVOF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK AND WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FARTHER E OF THE
REGION...SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT CHARGE
SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL TSTM OUTLOOK AREA.

...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY TO LK ERIE...
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY WED WITHIN A MODEST
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME ALONG A WSW TO ENE ORIENTED FRONTAL
ZONE. WITH ONLY MEAGER MOISTENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z/WED...ANY
APPRECIABLE TSTM THREAT SHOULD LIE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

..GRAMS.. 03/17/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170851
SWOD48
SPC AC 170850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS CONTINUE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WITH
THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WRN TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS LATE DAY 6 /SUN. 3-22/
AND THEN INTO THE N CENTRAL CONUS DAY 7. MEANWHILE...THE MUCH LESS
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF KEEPS THIS TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH DAY
6...WITH A CLOSED LOW EVOLVING JUST N OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DAY
7.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS AN INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
PLAINS -- BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE DAY 5/DAY 6 -- AS SLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS ADVECTS MOISTURE NWD FROM AN OPEN GULF AHEAD
OF A LARGE WRN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH PERSISTING IN THE DIFFERENT
MODELS...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING ANY SEVERE THREAT AREAS ATTM.

..GOSS.. 03/17/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170719
SWODY3
SPC AC 170717

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AMPLIFYING THIS PERIOD
AS IT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
DIG SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST E OF THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH -- AS IT SAGS SWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES/SERN CONUS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SAGS SWD INTO A WEAKLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER
APPEARS MINIMAL...DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY
AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

..GOSS.. 03/17/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170552
SWODY2
SPC AC 170550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWWD INTO
THE N CENTRAL CONUS INITIALLY WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES
EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.

AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO/ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES MORE
SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS PERIOD...WHILE
RELATIVELY QUIESCENT WEATHER AFFECTS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.

...MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE OZARKS REGION...
AN ENE-WSW COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/S CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED GULF WILL
HINDER TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURN...BUT 50S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVIDE MODEST
INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/. THUS...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF THE
FRONT...FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO ERN OK.

ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH WEAK SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO VEER SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE SLOWLY WITH HEIGHT -- TO 30
TO 40 KT FROM THE W AT MID LEVELS. RESULTING 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30
KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY-ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL...AND WITH A DRY/FAIRLY
DEEP MIXED LAYER EXPECTED...A LOCALLY-STRONGER GUST OR TWO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH THE COMBINED KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS FORECAST TO REMAIN ONLY
MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...A LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THUS -- WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.

...S FL...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS FL...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THIS REGION DURING THE DAY.

..GOSS.. 03/17/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170449
SWODY1
SPC AC 170446

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE NRN
UNITED STATES. THE SWWD EXTENSION OF A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SEWD ACROSS FL WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING
ALONG THE HIGHER MOMENTUM POLAR AIR STREAM FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN END OF
THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING MORE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN
HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE....A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA.

...S FL...

THE COMBINATION POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT BOTH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/ AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TODAY. NONETHELESS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND PERHAPS DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 03/17/2009

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