DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100057
SWODY1
SPC AC 100056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS MID-UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN...PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER SD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY CUT
OFF FROM HIGHER-LATITUDE NWLYS. MID-UPPER VORTEX SHOULD DRIFT SWD
ACROSS NEB...WHILE RELATED/OCCLUDED SFC LOW WEAKENS FURTHER OVER SD.
ADDITIONAL/WEAK SFC LOW FORMATION IS POSSIBLE FARTHER E ALONG WARM
FRONT...WHICH IS DRIFTING NWD ACROSS PORTIONS NERN SD AND W-CENTRAL
THROUGH SERN MN. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB THEN
BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY SSWWD OVER CENTRAL OK...AND IS RETREATING
NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS SW OK AND SRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE. WEAK
SFC LOW...EVIDENT IN MESONET OBS INVOF PVW...IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS MID-UPPER GYRE DRIFTS SWD.

...N-CENTRAL PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO CONTINUE INVOF MID-UPPER LOW THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SFC DIABATIC COOLING WILL STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE WITH MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT TSTM PTNL.
FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST FOR MAINTAINING AREAS OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...MAINLY AROUND PROXIMAL NRN SEMICIRCLE OF
CYCLONE AS LOW DRIFTS SWD. MOST VIGOROUS CELLS STILL MAY PRODUCE
HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY AFTER
09Z...INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH END OF PERIOD AND
INTO EARLY DAY-2. MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST
ADVECTION IN 700-800 MB LAYER AND FAVORABLY STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO YIELD ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-800 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO
CINH. WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT BASE OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW
LAYER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...E.G. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE...MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND HAIL
POTENTIAL...PERHAPS STARTING JUST BEFORE 12Z.

..EDWARDS.. 10/10/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091950
SWODY1
SPC AC 091948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH INCREASING CU AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION /NOW OVER SWRN SD/ AS MODEST
HEATING/MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER CELL THIS AFTERNOON --
MAINLY IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

..GOSS.. 10/09/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010/

...SD/NEB AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN WOBBLE SWD TONIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SD AND NE WY ROTATE AROUND THE NRN AND WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED
COMMA CLOUD ACCOMPANYING THE LOW. THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE COMMA HEAD AT THE NW EXTENT OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...WHERE ASCENT OF THE MODESTLY MOIST WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH AN LFC. FARTHER E...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED BY A REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.

STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL VORTICITY WITH THE
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1940

ACUS11 KWNS 091901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091900
SDZ000-092030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/S-CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091900Z - 092030Z

THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL SD THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW /ACCOMPANIED BY 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16
DEG C/ CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER SWRN/S-CNTRL SD...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ARE LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY E-NE OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW...WHICH IS AIDING IN STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F/...MUCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE 35
E OF PHP WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE COOL
MIDLEVEL AIR MASS AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE AREA WILL POSE SOME THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ADJACENT TO THE MIDLEVEL
LOW MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

..GARNER.. 10/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 43090055 43770200 44400264 44910251 45100158 44989987
44379822 43749799 43049881 43090055

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KCHS [091756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 091756
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/09/2010 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE CHARLESTON CITY POLICE REPORTED 1 FEET OF STANDING
WATER ON FISHBURNE STREET. THE ROAD WAS STILL PASSABLE.

&&

$$

DPB

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KCHS [091753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 091753
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/09/2010 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE CHARLESTON CITY POLICE REPORTED STANDING WATER ON
SOUTH BATTERY STREET DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THE
ROAD WAS STILL PASSABLE.

&&

$$

DPB

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KCHS [091750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 091750
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
150 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/09/2010 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

THE PILOT BOAT DISPATCH REPORTED A FEW INCHES OF SALT
WATER ON THEIR PARKING LOT DURING MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

$$

DPB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091723
SWODY2
SPC AC 091721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF WRN OK AND ADJACENT
NWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
U.S. IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A SECOND TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST. IN
BETWEEN...AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA.

MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE...A CUT-OFF LOW IS PROGGED
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED/WEAK
SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS KS/OK/NWRN TX DURING
THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD FOCUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAKER FRONT MOVES
SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIGS SEWD WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION.

...WRN OK/NWRN TX...
MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BUT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SWD-MOVING UPPER LOW SHOULD LEAD TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING AWAY FROM THE LOW SHOULD
HINDER WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ASCENT INVOF THE
SUBTLE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM INITIATION.

MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
CELLS -- WHERE A RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER/POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
MAINTAIN 15% PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK THIS FORECAST...THOUGH IT
APPEARS ATTM THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

..GOSS.. 10/09/2010

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KLBF [091613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 091613
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM LIGHTNING MAXWELL 41.08N 100.53W
10/08/2010 LINCOLN NE BROADCAST MEDIA

ONE FEMALE SUSTAINED MINOR INJURIES FROM A LIGHTNING
STRIKE IN MAXWELL. THE WOMAN WAS INSIDE A CONCESSION
STAND AT A FOOTBALL GAME WHEN LIGHTNING STRUCK A NEARBY
POLE AND TRAVELED INTO THE CIRCUITRY OF A COOLER IN THE
STAND. OTHERS IN THE AREA WERE REPORTEDLY KNOCKED TO THE
GROUND BY THE STRIKE.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091611
SWODY1
SPC AC 091609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SD/NEB AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN WOBBLE SWD TONIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SD AND NE WY ROTATE AROUND THE NRN AND WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED
COMMA CLOUD ACCOMPANYING THE LOW. THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE COMMA HEAD AT THE NW EXTENT OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...WHERE ASCENT OF THE MODESTLY MOIST WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH AN LFC. FARTHER E...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED BY A REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.

STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL VORTICITY WITH THE
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 10/09/2010

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KABR [091445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 091445
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM TSTM WND GST 15 SW PIERRE 44.22N 100.54W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC

DIME SIZED HAIL OBSERVED AS WELL.

&&

$$

ATG

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KABR [091438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 091438
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
938 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND GST 15 SW PIERRE 44.22N 100.54W
10/08/2010 E60 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC

DIME SIZED HAIL OBSERVED AS WELL.

&&

$$

ATG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091241
SWODY1
SPC AC 091239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL ASSUME AN EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTER AS
IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY CUTOFF FROM HIGHER MOMENTUM ZONAL FLOW
REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS CANADA. NONETHELESS...SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
BELT OF 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF
CIRCULATION ALONG WITH A POCKET OF RELATIVELY COLD /I.E. AROUND -16
C/ TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT INTENSE VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY
OVER NEB WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY AROUND PARENT
CIRCULATION...LIKELY SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

DESPITE MARGINAL MOISTURE QUALITY...A RATHER STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATE WAS OBSERVED ABOVE 850 MB BY THE 12Z BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS. WHEN
COUPLED WITH INCREASED DIABATIC WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...
EXPECT POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J
PER KG/ TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON INVOF OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE AND
ATTENDING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FOSTER A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL IN
THE STRONGER...MORE PERSISTENT STORMS.

..MEAD/JIRAK.. 10/09/2010

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KCHS [090744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 090744
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES HUNTING ISLAND 32.37N 80.44W
10/08/2010 BEAUFORT SC BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERE EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING DAMAGED SEVERAL
CABINS AT HUNTING ISLAND STATE PARK DURING HIGH TIDE.
PORTIONS OF CABIN ROAD WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED AND
UNDERMINED.

&&

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090725
SWOD48
SPC AC 090724

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE SEWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY /DAY 4/ TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SEWD AMPLIFYING NRN
STREAM TROUGH. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST FROM ERN TX INTO A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER
COVERAGE OR HIGHER END EVENT IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A RISK
AREA AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND DAY 4...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AS NRN
BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN STATES AND USHERS IN CP HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF.

..DIAL.. 10/09/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090658
SWODY3
SPC AC 090656

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF ERN OK
THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. BEING CUTOFF FROM MAIN
BELT OF POLAR WLYS...THE CNTRL U.S. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE MONDAY...BUT MAY SHIFT FARTHER SE THROUGH KS/NRN OK IN
RESPONSE TO NRN BRANCH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CNTRL CANADA. VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OK AND NRN/CNTRL TX.

...ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...

AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH TX AND OK MONDAY BENEATH PLUME OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC
HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING VORT MAX AND FRONT
AS DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ROTATING THROUGH
UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG
WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND PORTION OF NERN STATES...

NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG MID-UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
WITHIN BASE OF SYNOPTIC LOW CIRCULATION. PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AND DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER
THAN ON SUNDAY OWING TO STRONGER FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD
ADVANCING VORT MAX. NWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 30-40 KT VERTICAL SHEAR
ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK
AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 10/09/2010

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KBIS [090634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 090634
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
134 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 AM HAIL 3 SW NEW ENGLAND 46.51N 102.91W
10/09/2010 M1.00 INCH HETTINGER ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KBIRK

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KBIS [090542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 090542
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 AM HAIL BUCYRUS 46.06N 102.79W
10/09/2010 M0.88 INCH ADAMS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KBIRK

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KBIS [090542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 090542
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 AM TSTM WND GST BUCYRUS 46.06N 102.79W
10/09/2010 E60.00 MPH ADAMS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

KBIRK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090541
SWODY2
SPC AC 090540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL
OK...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN
CUTOFF FROM THE FASTER POLAR WLYS WITH A REX BLOCK PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL STATES. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A STRONG
VORT MAX WILL DROP SSEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO OK AND NWRN TX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY SWD DRIFT OF UPPER LOW CENTER. THE
FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SURGE ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX DROPPING SWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL REACH THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK
SUNDAY. FARTHER NORTH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.

...OK AND NRN TX...

LACK OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
THE SRN PLAINS...BUT MODEST SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
AN AXIS OF UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 F DEWPOINTS RETURNING NWD INTO OK BY
SUNDAY. PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WARM SECTOR WHICH ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL OK.
A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF STALLED BOUNDARY FROM NRN OK...TX PANHANDLE
INTO SRN KS SUNDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY COULD POSE A RISK FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL
INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD
ADVANCING VORT MAX AND SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE. THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT /-14 TO -15 C/ AT 500 MB ALONG WITH INCREASING 35-40 KT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE
HAIL. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS INDICATE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND DIABATIC
WARMING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAY...BUT MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE TO MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOST NUMEROUS IN VICINITY
OF SEWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM SD INTO PARTS OF NEB. THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD POSE A LOW END RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...

COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY CHARACTERIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF
NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT. AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
ERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A BELT OF 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND AS A RESULT
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY POSE A RISK FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 10/09/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090510
SWODY1
SPC AC 090508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN PLAYER IN CONUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER CENTRAL/ERN WY. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...PERTURBATION IS FCST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THEN SEWD OUT OF HIGH-PLAINS/ROCKIES LONGWAVE RIDGE
POSITION. STG CONSENSUS OF SREF/OPERATIONAL PROGS REASONABLY
INDICATES 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REACH CENTRAL NEB BY
10/12Z.

AT SFC...LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER N-CENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
ERRATICALLY INVOF NRN SD AND SRN ND THROUGH 10/00Z...WHILE WEAKENING
AS CIRCULATION ALOFT PASSES TO ITS SW AND S. EARLY IN
PERIOD...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW SEWD ACROSS
ERN NEB...THEN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND NERN NM. AS SYSTEM
OCCLUDES IN LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EWD/SEWD TO WRN IA...SRN KS...NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE BY END OF
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN SD AND SRN
MN -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD ACROSS WRN MN AND NERN SD...LOCATED NEAR
BIS-EAU LINE BY 10/00Z BEFORE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY.

...CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...
COLD-CORE REGION OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE IS FCST TO PASS ACROSS
PORTIONS NEB/DAKOTAS DURING TEMPORAL WINDOW OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING AT SFC. RESULTING ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND RESIDUAL/MRGL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD
LEAD TO MINIMIZED CINH AND MLCAPE COMMONLY IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
DURING MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INVOF SFC LOW ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR EACH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...LIMITING POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF SVR RISK.
HOWEVER...A FEW RELATIVELY INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE SVR HAIL FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS.

RELATIVE MAX CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND BY EXTENSION
MLCAPE...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY INVOF WARM-FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. THIS REPRESENTS TEMPORAL EXTENSION AND NEWD
SPATIAL SHIFT OF SIMILAR MAXIMA ANALYZED ON 09/00Z SFC AND UPPER AIR
CHARTS...JUXTAPOSED WITH ERN PORTION OF FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...PRIND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE STIFLED BY STG
CAPPING BENEATH WELL-DEVELOPED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/09/2010

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KGLD [090409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 090409
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1008 PM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 PM TSTM WND GST HILL CITY 39.37N 99.85W
10/08/2010 M59 MPH GRAHAM KS ASOS

&&

$$

DR

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