KGRR [180344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 180344
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1144 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 3 ESE SUNSET BEACH 42.07N 84.15W
05/15/2007 M0.25 INCH LENAWEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

EST 40 MPH WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...MINIMAL LTG

0551 PM TSTM WND GST SCHOOLCRAFT 42.12N 85.63W
05/15/2007 E55.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

4 TO 5 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN.

0551 PM HAIL 4 SW PORTAGE 42.16N 85.65W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0551 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW PORTAGE 42.16N 85.65W
05/15/2007 E60.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN

0603 PM HAIL PORTAGE 42.20N 85.59W
05/15/2007 E1.50 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0613 PM HAIL JACKSON 42.24N 84.40W
05/15/2007 E0.25 INCH JACKSON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0618 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE PLEASANT LAKE 42.41N 84.32W
05/15/2007 JACKSON MI PUBLIC

6 TREES OR LARGE LIMBS KNOCKED DOWN ON GOLF COURSE

0618 PM TSTM WND DMG BATTLE CREEK 42.30N 85.23W
05/15/2007 CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

14 TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF BATTLE CREEK...MOST OF THEM
ON THE NORTH SIDE

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG PAW PAW 42.22N 85.89W
05/15/2007 VAN BUREN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE HEALTHY OAK TREE DOWN.

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W MASON 42.58N 84.50W
05/15/2007 INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

1 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S LANSING 42.69N 84.55W
05/15/2007 INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN AND SHINGLES OFF A GREENHOUSE.

0655 PM TSTM WND GST LANSING 42.71N 84.55W
05/15/2007 M73.00 MPH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG WILLIAMSTON 42.69N 84.28W
05/15/2007 INGHAM MI AMATEUR RADIO

1 1/2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON HOME CAUSING MAJOR ROOF
DAMAGE.

0711 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N DIMONDALE 42.68N 84.65W
05/15/2007 EATON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

DELTA TWP. WIRES DOWN

&&

$$

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KUNR [180307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 180307
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
906 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL 8 E SMITHWICK 43.32N 103.07W
05/17/2007 E0.75 INCH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0738 PM HAIL RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.23W
05/17/2007 M0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN EAST RAPID CITY

0745 PM HAIL 2 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.27W
05/17/2007 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0753 PM HAIL 6 SW RAPID CITY 44.01N 103.32W
05/17/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0755 PM HAIL 7 SW RAPID CITY 44.00N 103.33W
05/17/2007 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0808 PM HAIL 2 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.27W
05/17/2007 E2.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0810 PM HAIL 2 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.27W
05/17/2007 E2.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

MOSTLY GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW BASEBALL SIZE.

0812 PM HAIL 2 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.27W
05/17/2007 E1.50 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0813 PM HAIL 1 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.25W
05/17/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KUNR [180246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180246
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
845 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0813 PM HAIL 1 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.25W
05/17/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KUNR [180226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180226
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
826 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 PM HAIL 2 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.27W
05/17/2007 E2.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KUNR [180218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180218
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
817 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HAIL 2 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.27W
05/17/2007 E2.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

MOSTLY GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW BASEBALL SIZE.

0812 PM HAIL 2 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.27W
05/17/2007 E1.50 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KJAX [180209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 180209
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EOC REPORTS COMMERCIAL BUSINESS WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AS
WELL AS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT THE CORNER
OF LEM TURNER ROAD AND ROWE AVENUE.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KUNR [180204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180204
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
804 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 2 W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.27W
05/17/2007 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0753 PM HAIL 6 SW RAPID CITY 44.01N 103.32W
05/17/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0755 PM HAIL 7 SW RAPID CITY 44.00N 103.33W
05/17/2007 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KOKX [180155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KOKX 180155
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
955 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0306 PM TSTM WND DMG POMPTON LAKES 41.00N 74.29W
05/16/2007 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ON RAMAPO AVENUE

0306 PM TSTM WND DMG POMPTON LAKES 41.00N 74.29W
05/16/2007 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON CAR WITH LIVE WIRES

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY 41.06N 74.15W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

61 MPH GUST...DOWNED TREES

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY 41.06N 74.15W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

61 MPH GUST...DOWNED TREES

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG WYCKOFF 41.00N 74.17W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN ON WYCKOFF AVENUE AND MOLLY COURT

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG FRANKLIN LAKES 41.01N 74.21W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

*** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON AN INDIVIDUAL...1008 FRANKLIN
ROAD

0315 PM FLOOD POMPTON LAKES 41.00N 74.29W
05/16/2007 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

HAMBURG TURNPIKE FLOODED

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG WYCKOFF 41.00N 74.17W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED...ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND GUST

0317 PM TSTM WND DMG WALDWICK 41.01N 74.13W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0317 PM TSTM WND DMG ALLENDALE 41.03N 74.13W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0317 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDLAND PARK 40.99N 74.14W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG WANAQUE 41.04N 74.29W
05/16/2007 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TRES DOWN

0324 PM TSTM WND DMG POMONA 41.19N 74.05W
05/16/2007 ROCKLAND NY NWS EMPLOYEE

DOWNED TREE

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG NORWOOD 40.99N 73.95W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

*** 1 INJ *** WORKER STRUCK BY TREE...HEAD INJURY...308
CEDAR COURT

0326 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDLAND PARK 40.99N 74.14W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON HOUSE...132 CHAMBERLAND PLACE

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY 41.06N 74.15W
05/16/2007 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN...1/5TH OF TOWN WITHOUT POWER

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTH NYACK 41.08N 73.92W
05/16/2007 ROCKLAND NY TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG WESTFIELD 40.65N 74.34W
05/16/2007 UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST OF 62 MPH...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...POWERLINES
DOWN

0348 PM TSTM WND GST 5 ESE GOLDEN'S BRIDGE 41.26N 73.58W
05/16/2007 M62.00 MPH WESTCHESTER NY MESONET

62 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST AT JOHN JAY HIGH SCHOOL IN
CROSS RIVER.

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG ROSELLE PARK 40.67N 74.27W
05/16/2007 UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE LIMBS AND TREE DOWN ON GRANT AVENUE NEAR GALLOPING
HILL

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARK 40.62N 74.31W
05/16/2007 UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON HOUSE...HEAVY STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...158 FULTON
STREET

0354 PM TSTM WND DMG NEWARK 40.72N 74.17W
05/16/2007 ESSEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON HOUSE...202 SHEPHARD PLACE

0358 PM TSTM WND DMG GRASMERE 40.61N 74.07W
05/16/2007 RICHMOND NY TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWNED

0358 PM TSTM WND DMG TOMPKINSVILLE 40.63N 74.07W
05/16/2007 RICHMOND NY TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWNED

0359 PM TSTM WND DMG DANBURY 41.40N 73.47W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON CARRIAGE HOUSE ROAD

0359 PM TSTM WND DMG DANBURY 41.40N 73.47W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

DOWNED TREES ON NEWTON ROAD

0359 PM TSTM WND GST JERSEY CITY 40.71N 74.07W
05/16/2007 M59.00 MPH HUDSON NJ MESONET

EZRA NOLAN MIDDLE SCHOOL

0400 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ESE BAYONNE 40.66N 74.07W
05/16/2007 M72.00 MPH HUDSON NJ C-MAN STATION

49 G 63 KNOTS. ROBBINS REEF IN NY HARBOR.

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG JERSEY CITY 40.71N 74.07W
05/16/2007 HUDSON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON YALE STREET.

0403 PM TSTM WND GST BROOKLYN HEIGHTS 40.70N 73.98W
05/16/2007 M70.00 MPH KINGS NY MESONET

NEW UTRECH HIGH SCHOOL

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG NEWTOWN 41.41N 73.32W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0410 PM TSTM WND DMG EASTON 41.24N 73.31W
05/16/2007 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTHBURY 41.49N 73.22W
05/16/2007 NEW HAVEN CT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0418 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 SSW CONEY ISLAND 40.48N 74.01W
05/16/2007 M40.00 MPH ANZ338 NJ BUOY

35 KT WIND GUST

0419 PM TSTM WND DMG BETHANY 41.40N 72.94W
05/16/2007 NEW HAVEN CT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED

0424 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 ESE EAST TREMONT 40.81N 73.78W
05/16/2007 M41.00 MPH ANZ335 NY BUOY

36 KT WIND GUST

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG CROMWELL 41.60N 72.63W
05/16/2007 MIDDLESEX CT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN...60-70 MPH WINDS

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDDLETOWN 41.55N 72.65W
05/16/2007 MIDDLESEX CT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN...60-70 MPH WINDS

0445 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SE PORT CHESTER 40.96N 73.58W
05/16/2007 M45.00 MPH ANZ335 CT BUOY

39 KT WIND GUST

&&

$$

JP

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KTFX [180147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 180147
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
746 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 5 N GRASS RANGE 47.10N 108.80W
05/17/2007 E1.25 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL WITH BIGGEST PIECES THE SIZE OF A
HALF DOLLAR COIN.

&&

$$

CTHOMSON

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KUNR [180142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180142
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
742 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 PM HAIL RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.23W
05/17/2007 M0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN EAST RAPID CITY

&&

$$

JJOHNSON

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KUNR [180138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180138
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
738 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL 8 E SMITHWICK 43.32N 103.07W
05/17/2007 E0.75 INCH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JJOHNSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180030
SWODY1
SPC AC 180028

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN AND CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...

OROGRAPHIC FORCING ENHANCED BY SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTRIBUTED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM ERN UT
THROUGH CO...NM AND ERN AZ. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

AN APPARENT MCV WAS OBSERVED MOVING THROUGH ERN NM. STORMS PERSIST
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO APPEAR MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. INSTABILITY IS A BIT
STRONGER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THIS REGION
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KT. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MIGHT
SURVIVE OR DEVELOP INTO FAR WRN TX WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED.

..NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT AND ID WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DEEPLY MIXED. MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD OVER TOP OF UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...SO STORMS ARE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.

.DIAL.. 05/18/2007

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KTBW [172339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 172339
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
738 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM WATER SPOUT 2 ESE SAINT PETERSBURG 27.75N 82.64W
05/17/2007 PINELLAS FL EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED NEAR 22 AVE IN TAMPA BAY.

0541 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 E FRUITVILLE 27.33N 82.40W
05/17/2007 SARASOTA FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL REPORTS OF EXTENDED FUNNEL CLOUD WELL EAST OF
FRUITVILLE ROAD AND INTERSTATE 75.

&&

$$

DAVIS

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KPUB [172335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 172335
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
534 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 PM HAIL 2 NW PUEBLO 38.32N 104.65W
05/17/2007 M0.88 INCH PUEBLO CO AMATEUR RADIO

NICKEL HAIL FROM 1716 TO 1723 MDT.

&&

$$

JKH

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KJAX [172316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172316
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
716 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREE ON A HOUSE AT 1216 PANGOLA RD.

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

POWERLINES ON ROADWAY AT 2388 HILLY ROAD.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KJAX [172304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172304
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
704 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N DOWNTOWN JACKSONVIL 30.38N 81.66W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN INCLUDING ONE TREE ON A HOUSE.
NO INJURIES REPORTED.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KCHS [172228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 172228
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0603 PM TSTM WND GST SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
05/17/2007 M46 MPH CHATHAM GA AWOS

FROM HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD OBSERVATION

&&

$$

24

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KCHS [172223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 172223
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND GST SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
05/17/2007 E45 MPH CHATHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

WHOLE TREES IN MOTION WITH DEBRIS IN THE FORM OF 1 TO 3
INCH LIMBS

0617 PM HAIL SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
05/17/2007 M0.25 INCH CHATHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL AT SAVANNAH MEMORIAL HOSPITAL

&&

$$

24

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KJAX [172221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172221
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
620 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH 30.19N 81.86W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

TREE ON ROOF OF HOUSE ON MIAMI ROAD NEAR NORMANDY AND
ROMONA. ALSO TREE ON CARPORT ON 5TH AVE OFF LEM TURNER.

&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KJAX [172217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172217
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
617 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0617 PM TSTM WND DMG JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS 30.25N 81.79W
05/17/2007 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

2 OAK TREES DAMAGED, BROKEN LIMBS IN SAN MATEO, PEACH
HARBOR SUBDIVISION, STRONG WINDS PRECEDED THE DAMAGE.

&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KJAX [172151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172151
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
551 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH 30.20N 81.85W
05/17/2007 E0.00 MPH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 50 MILES AN HOUR ON LAKE SHORE
BOULEVARD.

0520 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SW JACKSONVILLE HEIGH 30.20N 81.85W
05/17/2007 E0.00 MPH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

ESTIMATED WIND GUST 50 MPH ON LAKE SHORE BLVD.

0536 PM HAIL 4 NNE DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.39N 81.63W
05/17/2007 M0.75 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO REPORTED 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND MINOR LIMB DAMAGE.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KJAX [172144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172144
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
544 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM HAIL 4 WSW DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.31N 81.72W
05/17/2007 E0.75 INCH DUVAL FL PUBLIC

REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CASSAT AVENUE AND
NORMANDY BLVD.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KCYS [172141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 172141
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
341 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TORNADO 14 W GUERNSEY 42.27N 105.02W
05/17/2007 PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST EAST OF
I-25 NEAR MILE MARKER 94 FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND GENERAL
PUBLIC.

&&

$$

SJC

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KGRR [172116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 172116
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
515 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM TSTM WND DMG BATTLE CREEK 42.30N 85.23W
05/15/2007 CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

14 TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF BATTLE CREEK...MOST OF THEM
ON THE NORTH SIDE

&&

$$

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KBOU [172109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 172109
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
309 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0251 PM HAIL 10 N ELIZABETH 39.50N 104.60W
05/17/2007 M0.88 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN.

0240 PM HAIL 10 E PARKER 39.51N 104.58W
05/17/2007 M0.75 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0235 PM HAIL 3 E THE PINERY 39.46N 104.68W
05/17/2007 M0.75 INCH DOUGLAS CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

CLB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0826

ACUS11 KWNS 172056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172055
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-172200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL/ERN ID...SWRN-CENTRAL
MT...EXTREME NWRN WY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172055Z - 172200Z

CONVECTION IS FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...MOVING NEWD FROM HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF VALLEYS AND
HIGH PLAINS. HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY WITH MOST PERSISTENT/DISCRETE
CELLS.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENING CINH ACROSS THIS REGION...CONCURRENT
WITH INCREASE IN TCU AND SMALL CBS OVER A BROAD AREA BOUNDED ROUGHLY
BY JAC...LWT...P69...SWRN CORNER ID. FCST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED
RAOBS SUGGEST VERY DEEP/DRY-ADIABATIC MIXED LAYERS -- EXTENDING
ABOVE 600 MB PRESSURE LEVEL IN MANY CASES. MLCAPES ALREADY ARE NEAR
500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS BITTERROOTS AND FCST TO INCREASE TO 200-500
K/KG RANGE ACROSS MORE OF WRN MT AND SRN/ERN ID. BELT OF 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVIDENT OVER SAME AREA SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TSTMS TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR SMALL BOWS WITH STG-SVR
DOWNDRAFTS BEING MAIN CONCERN.

SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO IS EVIDENT FARTHER S
ACROSS UT AND SE OVER SRN WY AND CO...BUT ANY SVR POTENTIAL S OF
OUTLINED AREA SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF/PULSE IN NATURE -- GIVEN
WEAKNESS OF FLOW AND SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE.

.EDWARDS.. 05/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

42551672 43291624 44981531 46271434 47081264 48020791
47680673 46910628 46190655 45600857 44590995 43611055
42291174 42071428 42151619

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171959
SWODY1
SPC AC 171957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN OH/ERN KY/WRN WV/FAR SWRN VA/NERN TN...
ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN ERN KY COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ERN KY/FAR SRN OH INTO THE WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL HAIL EVENTS APPROACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING
SEVERE LEVELS. STRONG SFC-3 KM CAPE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG SURFACE
VORTICITY AND AMBIENT VORTICITY WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FUNNELS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO.

..SERN AZ/SWRN NM INTO SWRN TX...
AN AXIS OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED NWWD ACROSS
NRN CHIHUAHUA TO SWRN NM/SERN AZ WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS
RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED SLOW MOVING LOW-MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY TEND TO LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE
HEATING WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN THE STRONGEST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF NM
LOW WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KT EXTENDING SWD FROM FAR SRN NM/FAR W TX.

STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THIS REGIME OF GREATER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FROM FAR SWRN NM TO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN SW TX WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...
OVERALL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE LOWER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NWD INTO WY.

AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG ERN EXTENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME
AS IT SPREADS EWD ATOP A WEAK MOIST AXIS ALONG THE WRN PLAINS.
25-30 KT SLY LLJ EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN CO/WRN KS TO DAKOTAS AND
BENEATH WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE PLAINS OF ERN WY/ERN CO TO WRN
SD AND NEB PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FARTHER W...DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES...GENERALLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A
MORE ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL WSWWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..NRN ROCKIES INTO WRN MT...
DESPITE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...SCANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
TEND TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WEAK ASCENT
ALONG SRN EXTENT OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SWRN CANADA THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO WRN MT.
DESPITE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND THUS MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.PETERS.. 05/17/2007

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KLMK [171851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 171851
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 W WINCHESTER 38.00N 84.28W
05/17/2007 CLARK KY PUBLIC

PUBLIC SPOTTED A FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG ROUTE 60 WEST OF
WINCHESTER NEAR THE COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

13

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KLWX [171840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171840
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0432 PM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBIA 39.20N 76.86W
05/16/2007 HOWARD MD TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWNED

&&

$$

MANNING

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KPHI [171824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPHI 171824
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
223 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM TSTM WND DMG HACKETTSTOWN 40.85N 74.83W
05/16/2007 WARREN NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN HACKETTSTOWN.

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW HOPATCONG 40.98N 74.68W
05/16/2007 SUSSEX NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN BYRAM TOWNSHIP.

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG MENDHAM 40.77N 74.60W
05/16/2007 MORRIS NJ COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES AND WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN MENDHAM TOWNSHIP.

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG HATFIELD 40.28N 75.30W
05/16/2007 MONTGOMERY PA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES REPORTED DOWN IN HATFIELD AND HORSHAM.

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW DOYLESTOWN 40.37N 75.20W
05/16/2007 BUCKS PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

WIRES AND A FEW TREES DOWN AROUND THE COUNTY.

0325 PM TSTM WND GST 6 S FLEMINGTON 40.42N 74.86W
05/16/2007 E60.00 MPH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 60 MPH IN RINGOES.

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST CHESTER 39.96N 75.61W
05/16/2007 CHESTER PA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY.

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SE FLEMINGTON 40.46N 74.79W
05/16/2007 HUNTERDON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN EAST AMWELL AND RARTIAN
TOWNSHIPS.

0338 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 SW SOMERVILLE 40.47N 74.74W
05/16/2007 SOMERSET NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND WIRES REPORTED DOWN NEAR NESHANIC STATION.

0340 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SW SOMERVILLE 40.49N 74.72W
05/16/2007 M44.00 MPH SOMERSET NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST MEASURED TO 44 MPH IN HILLSBOROUGH.

0355 PM TSTM WND DMG WOODBRIDGE 40.55N 74.29W
05/16/2007 MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

A LARGE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN IN WOODBRIDGE.

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG HOCKESSIN 39.78N 75.69W
05/16/2007 NEW CASTLE DE EMERGENCY MNGR

WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY.

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW MIDDLETOWN 39.50N 75.80W
05/16/2007 CECIL MD LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN PIKE CREEK 39.73N 75.70W
05/16/2007 M0.24 INCH NEW CASTLE DE TRAINED SPOTTER

0.24 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PIKE CREEK IN 17 MINUTES.

0500 PM LIGHTNING PROSPECT PARK 39.89N 75.31W
05/16/2007 DELAWARE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

HOUSE FIRE.

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG PROSPECT PARK 39.89N 75.31W
05/16/2007 DELAWARE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN.

0501 PM TSTM WND GST PHILADELPHIA 40.01N 75.13W
05/16/2007 M51.00 MPH PHILADELPHIA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

51 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED IN THE ROXBOROUGH SECTION OF
PHILADELPHIA. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ALSO
REPORTED.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG PHILADELPHIA 40.01N 75.13W
05/16/2007 PHILADELPHIA PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN COBBS CREEK.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG CLAYMONT 39.80N 75.46W
05/16/2007 NEW CASTLE DE COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES AND WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN CLAYMONT AND WEST
DEPTFORD.

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG CHERRY HILL 39.90N 75.00W
05/16/2007 CAMDEN NJ NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE CHESTERTOWN 39.25N 76.03W
05/16/2007 KENT MD LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON WIRES ALONG ROUTE 291.

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE WILMINGTON 39.79N 75.46W
05/16/2007 NEW CASTLE DE LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIRES DOWN SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTIANA.

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG PENNSVILLE 39.66N 75.51W
05/16/2007 SALEM NJ COUNTY OFFICIAL

WIRES REPORTED DOWN IN PENNSVILLE AND WOODSTOWN.

&&

$$

MEOLA/MPD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0825

ACUS11 KWNS 171807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171806
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-172000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KY...EXTREME NERN TN...WRN
WV...SRN OH...EXTREME WRN VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171806Z - 172000Z

AREA OF TSTMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN KY...AND
WILL EXPAND/INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT
SHIFTS GENERALLY ESEWD TOWARD HIGHER TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
ISOLATED STG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MULTICELL CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL ATTM FOR WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW NEAR LEX...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD
ACROSS NRN PORTION MIDDLE TN. LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PERHAPS BECOME OPEN WAVE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH MOST CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND E OF FRONT. MOST
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS NOW OVER CENTRAL KY AND SRN OH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED WWD FROM STRONGEST LOW-MIDLEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES NOW OVER MOUNTAINS FROM PA-NERN TN...AS
MOTION OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EACH REGIME ESEWD. MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH
SFC-700 MB LAYER OVER MOST OF CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AREA...WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE AND BULK SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS.
THIS FACTOR...COMBINED WITH LACK OF MORE ROBUST SFC MOISTURE...WILL
LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF SVR POTENTIAL. STILL...PRESENCE OF MLCAPES
200-500 J/KG AND WEAK CINH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS 40S F
-- COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
BENEATH MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND
ASSOCIATED WET BULB EFFECTS IN PRECIP CORES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH STG GUSTS AND HAILSTONES TO REACH SFC.

.EDWARDS.. 05/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

39068156 38908300 38378431 37518492 36848528 36348543
35908458 36018355 36808208 37518124 38278137

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171728
SWODY2
SPC AC 171726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
NRN EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TOWARD
THE NRN PLAINS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NWRN STATES AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING DAY 1 IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID
SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWWD THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO CENTRAL MT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY
SEWD REACHING THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER TO THE MT/WY BORDER BY 19/00Z.

..NRN PLAINS...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST...CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS
WRN WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA...IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE RIDGE OVER SRN
CANADA ON FRIDAY WITH THE SRN EXTENT GLANCING THE NRN PLAINS.
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...STRENGTH OF CAP UNDER RIDGE...AND TIMING OF
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NRN ND BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUE
TO PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN AS PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXTEND EWD ATOP AXIS OF MOISTURE RETURN. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING MAY ALLOW A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NERN ND WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SSWWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO SRN
ND TO WRN NEB JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...A
RATHER STRONG CAP IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIURNAL TSTM INITIATION.

GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES S
TOWARD SD AND CENTRAL MN TO LAKE SUPERIOR. INCREASING WAA ALONG LLJ
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DESTABILIZATION WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE
SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN/ CENTRAL MN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

..SWRN/SRN MT...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED INTO
SWRN/SRN MT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NEWD WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS.
N/NELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN/
SRN MT WILL AID IN THIS TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR GIVEN INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
ALTHOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...STRONGER SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED STORMS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL.

..SRN ROCKIES TO MEXICAN BORDER...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD WITHIN
MEAN RIDGE AXIS ON FRIDAY. ASCENT WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES AND
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ON DAY2 FROM THE SRN ROCKIES SWD TO THE MEXICAN BORDER. A FEW TSTMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED HAIL APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...OVERALL WEAK WLY MID LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF
THE U.S./ MEXICO BORDER SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE OVER
FAR SW TX... BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

..FL...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN FL ON FRIDAY WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH TSTMS ALSO FORMING ALONG
SEA/LAKE BREEZES IN SRN FL. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THAT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO RESULT IN HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES. IF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS...THEN A CATEGORICAL RISK MAY THEN BE REQUIRED.

.PETERS.. 05/17/2007

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KTSA [171707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 171707
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 PM HAIL MCCURTAIN 35.15N 94.97W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH HASKELL OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

SAA

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KLWX [171700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 171700
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
100 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL 3 W BENTLEY SPRINGS 39.67N 76.72W
05/16/2007 E0.88 INCH BALTIMORE MD EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT NEAR FREELAND.

0230 PM TSTM WND GST NORRISVILLE 39.70N 76.54W
05/16/2007 M66.00 MPH HARFORD MD MESONET

MEASURED MESONET SITE.

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG FAIRFAX 38.85N 77.30W
05/16/2007 CITY OF FAIRFAX VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWNED

0510 PM HAIL PAROLE 38.98N 76.55W
05/16/2007 E0.75 INCH ANNE ARUNDEL MD TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG RIVA 38.95N 76.59W
05/16/2007 ANNE ARUNDEL MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREES DOWNED

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG DUNKIRK 38.72N 76.66W
05/16/2007 CALVERT MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREES DOWNED NEAR DUNKIRK

&&
DELAYED REPORTS
$$

MANNING

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KIWX [171643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIWX 171643
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE BENTON 41.47N 85.71W
05/15/2007 ELKHART IN NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN

0250 PM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 41.42N 85.75W
05/15/2007 M61 MPH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS OFFICE

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG HILLSDALE 41.93N 84.64W
05/15/2007 HILLSDALE MI EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN...SCATTERED...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
HILLSDALE COUNTY

0357 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E MONON 40.86N 86.84W
05/15/2007 WHITE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

2 TREES DOWN JUST EAST OF MONON. ALSO REPORTED PEA SIZE
HAIL.

0407 PM TSTM WND DMG LA PORTE 41.61N 86.71W
05/15/2007 LA PORTE IN STORM CHASER

SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AS WELL AS 65MPH GUST

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG THORNHOPE 40.93N 86.53W
05/15/2007 PULASKI IN EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PULASKI COUNTY

0425 PM MARINE TSTM WIND MICHIGAN CITY 41.71N 86.88W
05/15/2007 M50 MPH LA PORTE IN C-MAN STATION

0429 PM TSTM WND DMG LEITERS FORD 41.12N 86.39W
05/15/2007 FULTON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A LARGE LIMB WAS BLOCKING THE ROAD NEAR LEITERS FORD.
THERE WAS ALSO ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PART OF FULTON COUNTY.

0430 PM TSTM WND GST LA PORTE 41.61N 86.71W
05/15/2007 M63 MPH LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND FENCES DOWN.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG LEITERS FORD 41.12N 86.39W
05/15/2007 FULTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR

2 TREES DOWN NEAR LEITERS FORD OVER 12 INCHES IN
DIAMETER

0431 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NW LA PORTE 41.62N 86.73W
05/15/2007 E60 MPH LA PORTE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ONTO MOVING MOTORCYCLE PINNING
44 YEAR OLD MALE RIDER...SUFFERED A BROKEN LEG

0441 PM TORNADO LA PORTE 41.61N 86.71W
05/15/2007 LA PORTE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY A SPOTTER.

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG BUCHANAN 41.83N 86.37W
05/15/2007 BERRIEN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
BERRIEN COUNTY

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG ARGOS 41.24N 86.25W
05/15/2007 MARSHALL IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE UPROOTED IN ARGOS. SCATTERED REPORTS OF POWER
LINES AND TREES DOWN ACROSS ALL OF PULASKI COUNTY.

0445 PM TORNADO 1.4 S NEW CARLISLE 41.68N 86.51W
05/15/2007 ST. JOSEPH IN NWS STORM SURVEY

EF0 MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 65 MPH. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE
TOPS. TOUCHDOWN WITNESSED BY PROPERTY OWNER.

0449 PM TSTM WND DMG LA PORTE 41.61N 86.71W
05/15/2007 LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN AND AROUND LA
PORTE... WINDS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 65 TO 70 MPH

0449 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S MEDARYVILLE 41.05N 86.89W
05/15/2007 PULASKI IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEMI FLIPPED OVER NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US421 AND
14.

0452 PM HAIL 3 NNW NAPPANEE 41.49N 86.01W
05/15/2007 M0.50 INCH ELKHART IN NWS EMPLOYEE

0454 PM TORNADO 3 NW SOUTH BEND 41.71N 86.31W
05/15/2007 ST. JOSEPH IN AMATEUR RADIO

TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG BUCHANAN 41.83N 86.37W
05/15/2007 BERRIEN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
BERRIEN COUNTY

0458 PM TORNADO 1 SW BURNETTSVILLE 40.75N 86.61W
05/15/2007 WHITE IN COUNTY OFFICIAL

SMALL TORNADO OBSERVED BY CHIEF DEPUTY OVER OPEN
FIELD...NO DAMAGE

0503 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N MONTICELLO 40.78N 86.76W
05/15/2007 WHITE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N MILFORD 41.42N 85.85W
05/15/2007 KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

0512 PM TSTM WND GST 5 S CULVER 41.15N 86.42W
05/15/2007 M59 MPH FULTON IN AMATEUR RADIO

59MPH WIND MEASURED

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG DOWAGIAC 41.98N 86.11W
05/15/2007 CASS MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS CASS COUNTY

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG LEITERS FORD 41.12N 86.39W
05/15/2007 FULTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES GREATER THAN 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG LOGANSPORT 40.75N 86.36W
05/15/2007 CASS IN EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG LOGANSPORT 40.75N 86.36W
05/15/2007 CASS IN EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE HOMES WITH SHINGLE AND SIDING DAMAGE

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG LOGANSPORT 40.75N 86.36W
05/15/2007 CASS IN EMERGENCY MNGR

4 HOMES WITH TREES DOWN ON THEM. DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE
MINOR.

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG LOGANSPORT 40.75N 86.36W
05/15/2007 CASS IN EMERGENCY MNGR

1 CAR WITH TREE DOWN ON IT

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE WAUSEON 41.52N 84.10W
05/15/2007 FULTON OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W ROCHESTER 41.06N 86.21W
05/15/2007 FULTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR

2 LARGE TREES 12 INCHES OR GREATER IN DIAMETER DOWN

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG CENTREVILLE 41.92N 85.53W
05/15/2007 ST. JOSEPH MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG ONTARIO 41.70N 85.38W
05/15/2007 LAGRANGE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF LAGRANGE COUNTY.

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S WARSAW 41.23N 85.85W
05/15/2007 E60 MPH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

WINDS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG PERU 40.75N 86.07W
05/15/2007 MIAMI IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
MIAMI COUNTY AS WELL AS ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE LEESBURG 41.29N 85.79W
05/15/2007 KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

2 LARGE TREES...2 FEET IN DIAMETER...SNAPPED AND HIT
THE CORNER OF A HOUSE.

0548 PM TSTM WND GST 2.3 NE THREE RIVERS 41.97N 85.60W
05/15/2007 M68 MPH ST. JOSEPH MI AWOS

*** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON CAR CAUSING MINOR INJURY TO
OCCUPANT

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W NORTH WEBSTER 41.33N 85.76W
05/15/2007 KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

12" DIAMETER MAPLE TREE SNAPPED OFF AND FELL ON GARAGE
AND POWER LINES

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG CENTREVILLE 41.92N 85.53W
05/15/2007 ST. JOSEPH MI AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG WITH SOME STREET FLOODING

0613 PM TSTM WND DMG ALBION 41.40N 85.42W
05/15/2007 NOBLE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG AVILLA 41.37N 85.24W
05/15/2007 NOBLE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG KENDALLVILLE 41.44N 85.26W
05/15/2007 NOBLE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE COLUMBIA CITY 41.12N 85.43W
05/15/2007 WHITLEY IN PUBLIC

SILO CAP BLOWN OFF

0626 PM TSTM WND GST 5 S BRYAN 41.40N 84.55W
05/15/2007 E60 MPH DEFIANCE OH AMATEUR RADIO

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE WAUSEON 41.52N 84.10W
05/15/2007 FULTON OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0633 PM TSTM WND DMG HILLSDALE 41.93N 84.64W
05/15/2007 HILLSDALE MI EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL ADDITIONAL LARGE TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN HILLSDALE COUNTY

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG ST. JOE 41.31N 84.90W
05/15/2007 DE KALB IN EMERGENCY MNGR

2 POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF NEAR ST JOE

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG ASHLEY 41.53N 85.07W
05/15/2007 DE KALB IN EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR ASHLEY

0652 PM TSTM WND DMG HICKSVILLE 41.29N 84.77W
05/15/2007 DEFIANCE OH AMATEUR RADIO

3FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

0659 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N NAPOLEON 41.44N 84.13W
05/15/2007 HENRY OH AMATEUR RADIO

POWERLINE DOWN ACROSS ROAD

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG EDGERTON 41.45N 84.75W
05/15/2007 WILLIAMS OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREES DOWN

0727 PM TSTM WND DMG HICKSVILLE 41.29N 84.77W
05/15/2007 DEFIANCE OH AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN ACROSS ROAD

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG OTTOVILLE 40.93N 84.34W
05/15/2007 PUTNAM OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AROUND OTTOVILLE

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG LEIPSIC 41.10N 83.98W
05/15/2007 PUTNAM OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS POWERLINE

&&

$$

BJS

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KIWX [171641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KIWX 171641
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1241 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM TSTM WND DMG LA PORTE 41.61N 86.71W
05/15/2007 LA PORTE IN STORM CHASER

SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AS WELL AS 65MPH GUST

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

$$

NWS

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KIWX [171636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KIWX 171636
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE WAUSEON 41.52N 84.10W
05/15/2007 FULTON OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

$$

NWS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171549
SWODY1
SPC AC 171546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
1030 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR SERN MN THIS MORNING...IN WAKE OF
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING OVER MOST THE CENTRAL STATES. RESULTANT
LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST
WILL SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY LOW SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
TODAY. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NEAR WEAK LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL COLD POCKET MOVING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS... AS WELL AS FAR
SERN AZ/SWRN NM/SWRN TX AND PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES/WRN MT.
BRIEF LIVED SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO SHIFT SLOWLY ENEWD AWAY FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TODAY.

..SERN AZ/SWRN NM/SWRN TX...
SRN STREAM SYSTEM EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD TODAY. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AT 15Z HOLDING
IN THE 50-55F RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND
H5 TEMPS AROUND -10C SHOULD THEREFORE ALLOW AIR MASS TO BECOME
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
SLOWLY EWD THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER...WHEN COMBINED WITH ESELY SURFACE
WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY APPROACH 30-35 KT. THUS...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENT...INCLUDING BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SRN OH/ERN KY/WRN WV/NERN TN...
THOUGH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY COOL/DRY...VERY COLD MID
LEVEL AIR AND FOCUSED ASCENT INVOF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY AND AID IN DEVELOPING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
BRIEF-LIVED AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH THE STRONGER CORES
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THIS REGION.

..NRN ROCKIES INTO WRN MT...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY. THOUGH ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY AND ATOP THE RIDGE...MODEST
SWLY/WLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON BOI/TFX 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS ENEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING.

..CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SLOW MOVING CLUSTERS MOVING
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING MAY PRODUCE HAIL/STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS. HOWEVER...OVERALL ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 05/17/2007

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KGRR [171535]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 171535
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1135 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 3 ESE SUNSET BEACH 42.07N 84.15W
05/15/2007 M0.25 INCH LENAWEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

EST 40 MPH WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...MINIMAL LTG

0551 PM TSTM WND GST SCHOOLCRAFT 42.12N 85.63W
05/15/2007 E55.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

4 TO 5 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN.

0551 PM HAIL 4 SW PORTAGE 42.16N 85.65W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0551 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW PORTAGE 42.16N 85.65W
05/15/2007 E60.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN

0603 PM HAIL PORTAGE 42.20N 85.59W
05/15/2007 E1.50 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0613 PM HAIL JACKSON 42.24N 84.40W
05/15/2007 E0.25 INCH JACKSON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0618 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE PLEASANT LAKE 42.41N 84.32W
05/15/2007 JACKSON MI PUBLIC

6 TREES OR LARGE LIMBS KNOCKED DOWN ON GOLF COURSE

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG PAW PAW 42.22N 85.89W
05/15/2007 VAN BUREN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE HEALTHY OAK TREE DOWN.

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W MASON 42.58N 84.50W
05/15/2007 INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

1 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S LANSING 42.69N 84.55W
05/15/2007 INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN AND SHINGLES OFF A GREENHOUSE.

0655 PM TSTM WND GST LANSING 42.71N 84.55W
05/15/2007 M73.00 MPH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG WILLIAMSTON 42.69N 84.28W
05/15/2007 INGHAM MI AMATEUR RADIO

1 1/2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON HOME CAUSING MAJOR ROOF
DAMAGE.

0711 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N DIMONDALE 42.68N 84.65W
05/15/2007 EATON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

DELTA TWP. WIRES DOWN

&&
..DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE IN KALAMAZOO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE
THAT OCCURRED IN KALAMAZOO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES ON THE EVENING OF
MAY 15 2007 WAS CAUSED BY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN KALAMAZOO AND WESTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES. A
SWATH OF SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE STRETCHED FROM NEAR SCHOOLCRAFT TO
BATTLE CREEK. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA WAS A REGION WHERE THE
DAMAGE WAS MORE FOCUSED. THE WORST OF THE DAMAGE OCCURRED AROUND
552 PM IN AN AREA SOUTH OF PORTAGE AND NORTH OF VICKSBURG. A PATH
OF DAMAGE...ONE MILE WIDE AND ONE AND HALF MILES LONG...STARTED NEAR
THE PORTAGE ROAD AND U AVENUE INTERSECTION. THE DAMAGE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE 24TH STREET AND S AVENUE
INTERSECTION. HIGHEST WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 75 TO 85 MILES AN
HOUR WERE DETERMINED. WITHIN THIS AREA A ROOF ON A POLE BARN WAS
PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF. A GARAGE DOOR WAS BLOWN IN. THE DAMAGING
WINDS STRIPPED SOME ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIAL OFF OF SEVERAL
HOMES. MANY LARGE HEALTHY TREES WERE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED OFF. SOME
TREES WERE LYING ON HOUSES. ALL DAMAGE WAS LYING TO THE NORTHEAST
INDICATING DOWNBURST OR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

$$

GWETZEL

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KSHV [171437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 171437
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N FOREMAN 33.79N 94.40W
05/15/2007 LITTLE RIVER AR NEWSPAPER

ONE TREE DOWNED AND A BARN DESTROYED ALONY HWY 41 NORTH
OF FOREMAN.

&&

$$

MBERRY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171243
SWODY1
SPC AC 171241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY OVER THE UPR OH VLY/LWR GRT
LKS THIS PERIOD AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E FROM THE RCKYS INTO
THE PLNS. AMPLIFICATION OF ERN SYSTEM WILL BE DUE LARGELY TO VORT
MAX/JET STREAK NOW CROSSING MO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE TN
VLY/SRN APLCNS TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER
OH/WV.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES UNDERCUTTING WRN RIDGE...
THE STRONGEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE NEGATIVELY-TILTED FROM SRN AZ
TO NRN CHIHUAHUA. IN THE NORTHWEST...MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING THE WA CST IS PRECEDED BY A WEAKER IMPULSE IN WRN ORE
THAT SHOULD REACH THE NRN RCKYS BY EVENING.

INCREASING WSW FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN LEE LOW/TROUGH OVER MT...AND
LARGE/COOL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD S THROUGH THE MS VLY. OTHERWISE
..SFC FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK.

..NRN RCKYS...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS OF
ID/MT AHEAD OF ORE UPR IMPULSE. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY MIXING INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOW
40S. BUT PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLY-TIMED UPR DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/ASCENT...THIS SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCTD
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY INTO
SHORT LINES...AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURSTS. THUS...A FEW STORMS MAY YIELD DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEFORE WEAKENING WITH SUNSET.

..CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS...
SCTD HIGH-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY AND POSSIBLY WRN SD. DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SPARSE MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/ WILL KEEP
MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. BUT 20-25 KT MID LEVEL WNWLY FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL CLUSTERS/BANDS.
COUPLED WITH GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SVR HAIL BEFORE STORMS
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

..SWRN U.S....
A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE FROM FAR W TX/NM INTO
CNTRL AZ AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SFC HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
UPLIFT LIKELY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL STORMS...WITH
ACTIVITY PERHAPS MOST CONCENTRATED JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIND PROFILES WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE
QUITE WEAK...WITH MODEST /25+ KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR BEING CONFINED TO
SRN NM/FAR W TX. WHILE A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/MARGINAL ROTATING
STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE IN THAT REGION ...OVERALL SETUP APPEARS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THEIR EARLY STAGES OF GROWTH...MAY YIELD SVR WIND/HAIL BEFORE
TRANSITIONING INTO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS THIS EVENING.

..OH/WV/KY...
SFC HEATING AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL COLD POCKET /-22C TO -26C AT
500 MB/ WITH DEVELOPING UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION OVER PARTS OF OH/WV AND KY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. NUMEROUS
LOW-TOPPED STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/STRONG SFC WINDS. HOWEVER... SPARSE
MOISTURE SUPPLY AND DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN UPDRAFTS
SUGGEST THAT PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED SVR ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW

.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 05/17/2007

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KIWX [171201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 171201
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
801 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG ASHLEY 41.53N 85.07W
05/15/2007 DE KALB IN EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR ASHLEY

&&

$$

BJS

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KIWX [171156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 171156
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
756 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG ST. JOE 41.31N 84.90W
05/15/2007 DE KALB IN EMERGENCY MNGR

2 POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF NEAR ST JOE

&&

$$

BJS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170847
SWOD48
SPC AC 170847

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON DAY4/MAY 20/...

..THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY5/MAY
21/...

..DISCUSSION...

17/00Z MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS APPEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE MS VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE STRONG CONVECTION WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/SD/ND INTO MN BY MONDAY THE
21ST.

.DARROW.. 05/17/2007

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KIWX [170841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 170841
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
441 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 PM TSTM WND GST 2.3 NE THREE RIVERS 41.97N 85.60W
05/15/2007 M68 MPH ST. JOSEPH MI AWOS

*** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON CAR CAUSING MINOR INJURY TO
OCCUPANT

&&

$$

JT

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170728
SWODY3
SPC AC 170727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MT...

..MT...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD WITH LEADING HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS THE
NRN ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MT...A GOOD PORTION OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE.

LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING IN SUCH A MANNER THAT
AN AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ONE CAVEAT THAT
MUST BE RECONCILED IS THE POTENTIAL STABILIZING EFFECT OF AIRMASS
PLUNGING SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. IT SHOULD BE NOTABLY DRIER/COOLER
WITHIN THIS POLAR SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE AIDED BY AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT SHOULD FOCUS A NARROW WEDGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IF STRONG HEATING DOES INDEED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS FAVORED ELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DEEP INTO MT NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IF DEW POINTS CAN HOLD
IN THE LOWER 50S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500
J/KG. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IF AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AS EXPECTED.

..CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

STRONG SFC HEATING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
ADEQUATE IN INITIATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO SRN MN. FRONTAL SLOPE/CONVERGENCE MAY ULTIMATELY BE TOO WEAK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN OTHERWISE
MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STRONGER ASCENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS WI
SHOULD BE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A MORE
CONCENTRATED ZONE OF CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION. IF
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

.DARROW.. 05/17/2007

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