Sunday, September 15, 2013

KPDT [160137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 160137
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
637 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NE PLYMOUTH 46.02N 119.23W
09/15/2013 BENTON WA PUBLIC

MULTIPLE HIGHWAY SIGNS BLOWN DOWN...ALONG INTERSTATE 82
BETWEEN COFFIN ROAD AND OREGON STATE LINE.

0609 PM TSTM WND GST PENDLETON 45.67N 118.82W
09/15/2013 M64.00 MPH UMATILLA OR MESONET

GUST 64 MPH AT NWS PENDLETON OFFICE DAVIS WEATHER
STATION.


&&

$$

AA

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KPDT [160126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 160126
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
625 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG HERMISTON 45.83N 119.28W
09/15/2013 UMATILLA OR PUBLIC

EMPLOYEE OF HERMISTON BOWLING ALLEY REPORTED SEMI TRUCK
TRAILER WITHOUT CAB FLIPPED ONTO ITS SIDE FROM HIGH
WINDS. ALSO POWER OUTAGE AT HIS LOCATION.


&&

$$

AA

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KPDT [160105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 160105
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
605 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SSW UMATILLA CHEMICAL 45.75N 119.62W
09/15/2013 E80 MPH MORROW OR PUBLIC

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH.


&&

$$

AA

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KMFL [160102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 160102
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
902 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE KENDALE LAKES 25.72N 80.41W
09/15/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

BIG TREE DOWN 1 MILE NORTH OF SW 40TH STREET AND 92ND
AVE


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300200

$$

BNB

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KPDT [160055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 160055
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
555 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW UMATILLA 45.91N 119.34W
09/15/2013 M66 MPH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST TO 66 MPH...ALSO SEVERAL WIND GUSTS TO 64 MPH
AND BLOWING DUST.


&&

$$

AA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160036
SWODY1
SPC AC 160034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/ERN ORE/WA...FAR WRN ID...
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS OBSERVED THIS EVENING
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ORE/WA...WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000
J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING NEWD
INTO THE REGION. DEEP-LAYER SLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-50 KT WILL
PROMOTE A MIXTURE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINE SEGMENTS
WHICH WILL ADVANCE NWD DURING THE NIGHT FROM ERN ORE INTO ERN WA.
THE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...SRN KS/NRN OK AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE...
SURFACE FRONT WAS ANALYZED THIS EVENING FROM E-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO
THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH MERGERS EXPECTED TO YIELD A DISORGANIZED MCS AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE SWD INTO NRN OK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING COMPOSITE COLD POOL AND SAGGING SURFACE
FRONT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..GARNER.. 09/16/2013

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 160022
FFGMPD
COZ000-160400-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0258
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
821 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 160012Z - 160400Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AS
CELLS MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...CELLS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR
WERE MOVING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER AREAS WITH HIGHER
FFG...GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THE 15/21Z HRRR GENERATED SOME 3 HRLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.5
INCHES AND 2 INCHES THROUGH 06Z. LOOPING HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WOULD PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. UNTIL THEN...THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE.

BANN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON 38480473 39540383 38770276 37730265 37250373 37750493
38480473

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KSEW [160021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 160021
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
521 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL 2 SSW EVERETT 47.94N 122.22W
09/15/2013 E0.25 INCH SNOHOMISH WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORM. PONDING OF WATER IN THE
ROADWAYS. POWER OUTAGE IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KDDC [160006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 160006
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
706 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NW COLDWATER 37.31N 99.42W
09/15/2013 E70 MPH COMANCHE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

DWOLFE

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KEPZ [160001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 160001
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
600 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0556 PM FLASH FLOOD CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.74W
09/15/2013 OTERO NM EMERGENCY MNGR

CLOUDCROFT EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS U.S. HIGHWAY 82
BETWEEN CLOUDCROFT WAS CLOSED...AS WELL AS HIGHWAY 130.
THE BRIDGES IN A COUPLE OF AREA CANYONS HAVE BEEN WASHED
OUT.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1300629

$$

FAUSETT

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KICT [152358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152358
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
658 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL 8 N EL DORADO 37.94N 96.86W
09/15/2013 E0.75 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS DIME SIZED HAIL FALLING AND
COVERING 80 PERCENT OF THE GROUND AT HIGHWAY 77 AND NW
75TH.


&&

$$

VJP

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KEPZ [152356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 152356
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
556 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 PM FLASH FLOOD SILVER LAKE 33.02N 105.63W
09/15/2013 OTERO NM FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HIGHWAY 244 NEAR SILVER LAKE IS CLOSED WITH 5 TO 6 FEET
OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1300628

$$

FAUSETT

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KBOI [152350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 152350
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
550 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HEAVY RAIN ESE JUNTURA 43.74N 118.08W
09/15/2013 E0.25 INCH MALHEUR OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN...RAINFALL RATE OF 0.25 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES AT ONE
POINT. ALSO REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

WHEWKO

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KTBW [152348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152348
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
748 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 PM LIGHTNING LARGO 27.91N 82.78W
09/15/2013 PINELLAS FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

LARGO POLICE DEPARTMENT BUILDING WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING
WITH A MINOR FIRE RESULTING FROM THE STRIKE.


&&

$$

JCM

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KPDT [152346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 152346
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
446 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 5 SSE IONE 45.44N 119.79W
09/15/2013 E1.00 INCH MORROW OR PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.


&&

$$

AA

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KMLB [152345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 152345
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
745 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM WATER SPOUT 4 ESE GIFFORD 27.66N 80.36W
09/15/2013 AMZ555 FL BROADCAST MEDIA

WATERSPOUT REPORTED BY PUBLIC FROM VERO BEACH CITY
MARINA. REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA.


&&

$$

ARB

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KBOI [152342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 152342
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
542 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW STINKINGWATER PAS 43.72N 118.56W
09/15/2013 E0.40 INCH HARNEY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY
RAIN...RAINFALL RATE OF 0.40 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES...ALSO
A BREIF PERIOD OF PEA SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

WHEWKO

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KBOI [152325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 152325
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
525 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSE FORT HARNEY 43.58N 118.77W
09/15/2013 E0.25 INCH HARNEY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY
RAIN...RAINFALL RATE OF 0.25 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES.


&&

$$

WHEWKO

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KPDT [152323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 152323
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
423 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 12 S IONE 45.33N 119.82W
09/15/2013 E0.88 INCH MORROW OR CO-OP OBSERVER

NICKEL SIZED HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.


&&

$$

AA

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KPDT [152322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 152322
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
422 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 2 SSW GRASS VALLEY 45.34N 120.79W
09/15/2013 E0.50 INCH SHERMAN OR TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN IN 12
MINUTES.

0400 PM HAIL N GRASS VALLEY 45.36N 120.78W
09/15/2013 E0.50 INCH SHERMAN OR TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING GROUND AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

0410 PM HAIL 5 SSE MIKKALO 45.40N 120.20W
09/15/2013 E0.50 INCH GILLIAM OR TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. 0.14 INCHES OF RAIN IN 5 MINUTES.


&&

$$

ML

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KICT [152320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152320
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 PM HAIL POTWIN 37.94N 97.02W
09/15/2013 E0.88 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL HAS OCCURRED FOR THE LAST FEW MINUTES.


&&

$$

VJP

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KSEW [152320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 152320
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
420 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 4 NE LACEY 47.06N 122.74W
09/15/2013 E0.25 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KICT [152309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152309
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
609 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WICHITA MID CONTINENT A 37.66N 97.44W
09/15/2013 M63 MPH SEDGWICK KS ASOS

ASOS MEASURED 63 MPH WIND GUST AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSHED THROUGH.


&&

$$

VJP

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KEPZ [152242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 152242
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
442 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM FLASH FLOOD SILVER LAKE 33.02N 105.63W
09/15/2013 OTERO NM FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS FLOODING AROUND SILVER LAKE AND
OVER PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 244.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1300627

$$

JAR

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KBOI [152238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 152238
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
438 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 N CRANE 43.53N 118.59W
09/15/2013 E0.25 INCH HARNEY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
HAIL...RAINFALL RATE 0.25 INCHES IN 5 MINUTES...HAIL SIZE
1/4 INCH AND ACCUMULATING ON THE GROUND. VIS LESS THAN
1/4 STATUE MILE WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...


&&

$$

WHEWKO

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KICT [152236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152236
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
535 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0534 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW HUTCHINSON 38.08N 97.94W
09/15/2013 M1.70 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED 1.7 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.


&&

$$

VJP

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KICT [152221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152221
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
521 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N BURRTON 38.04N 97.67W
09/15/2013 HARVEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS A TELEPHONE POLE WAS SNAPPED AS
WELL AS DAMAGE TO SIGNS JUST NORTH OF BURRTON. TIME IS
ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.


&&

$$

VJP

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KICT [152201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152201
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
500 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 2 NW HUTCHINSON 38.08N 97.94W
09/15/2013 E0.88 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

VJP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1886

ACUS11 KWNS 152200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152200
ORZ000-WAZ000-160030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...ERN WA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152200Z - 160030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
DEVELOP AS STORMS LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE IN BOTH RADAR
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE UMATILLA RANGE AND
OCHOCO/STRAWBERRY MTNS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE
ORE COAST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY 1 TO 1.25 INCH PW VALUES PER GPS DATA AND HOT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL SWLYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPEAR TO
GENERALLY LAG THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WHICH SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE HOT BOUNDARY
LAYER/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE FORCED ASCENT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A SHORT LINE SEGMENT COULD DEVELOP N/NEWD WITH A DEEPENING COLD
POOL BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 19Z HRRR
WITH THE SIMULATION OF STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA BASIN.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 09/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 44912065 46082051 47182034 47921975 48221903 48071812
47191732 45851723 44521726 43641789 43291840 43261871
43861972 44382041 44912065

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KTBW [152159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152159
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
558 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0549 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE LARGO 27.87N 82.76W
09/15/2013 PINELLAS FL TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERHEAD TRAFFIC SIGNALS BLOWN DOWN AT BRYAN DAIRY ROAD
AND STARKEY ROAD.


&&

$$

JCM

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KICT [152157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152157
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
457 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 PM HAIL 3 W BURRTON 38.02N 97.73W
09/15/2013 E1.00 INCH RENO KS AMATEUR RADIO

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON
UNITED STATES HIGHWAY 50.


&&

$$

VJP

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KABQ [152150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 152150
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 E KEWA PUEBLO 35.52N 106.24W
09/15/2013 SANTA FE NM NWS EMPLOYEE

MUD AND ROCK OVER I-25 ONRAMP GOING SOUTHBOUND AT EXIT
264


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301386

$$

JLP

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KICT [152148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 152148
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
448 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM HAIL 6 SE (HUT)HUTCHINSON MU 38.01N 97.79W
09/15/2013 E1.75 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS LOTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND
40 MPH WINDS.


&&

$$

VJP

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KTBW [152147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152147
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
543 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 NNW ANNA MARIA ISLAND 27.61N 82.76W
09/15/2013 M62 MPH GMZ853 GM MESONET

MESONET STATION 6 NNW ANNA MARIA ISLAND
/XEGM/ REPORTS WIND GUST OF 62 MPH/54 KT.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KABQ [152147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 152147
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 ESE SAN FELIPE PUEBLO 35.42N 106.42W
09/15/2013 SANDOVAL NM NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE FOOT OF MUD AND ROCK OVER PORTIONS OF SAN FELIPE
CASINO GAS STATION PARKING LOT


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301385

$$

JLP

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KABQ [152144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 152144
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM FLASH FLOOD SAN FELIPE PUEBLO 35.43N 106.45W
09/15/2013 SANDOVAL NM NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL HOMES HAD WATER AND MUD WASHED INTO THEM


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301384

$$

JLP

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KABQ [152142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 152142
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
342 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N ALGODONES 35.40N 106.48W
09/14/2013 SANDOVAL NM NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER OVER I-25 JUST NORTH OF ALGODONES. DEBRIS ON SLOW
LANE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301383

$$

JLP

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KTBW [152138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152138
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
537 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW TAMPA INTERNATIONA27.98N 82.53W
09/15/2013 M35 MPH HILLSBOROUGH FL ASOS

ASOS STATION TAMPA INTL AIRPORT /TPA/ KTPA
ASOS REPORTED A 35 MPH GUST.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTBW [152134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152134
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
533 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM MARINE TSTM WIND TREASURE ISLAND 27.77N 82.77W
09/15/2013 M45 MPH PINELLAS FL MESONET

MESONET STATION TREASURE ISLAND /CW4299/
REPORTED A 45 MPH/39 KT GUST.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTBW [152130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152130
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
529 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 NNW ANNA MARIA ISLAND 27.61N 82.76W
09/15/2013 M52 MPH GMZ853 GM MESONET

MESONET STATION 6 NNW ANNA MARIA ISLAND
/XEGM/ REPORTED A 52 MPH/45 KT GUST.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KGJT [152129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 152129
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E LEWIS 37.51N 108.63W
09/14/2013 MONTEZUMA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS ... SHORT BURSTS OF
HAIL...LIGHTNING... 0.34 INCHES BY 8 PM. THEN
INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN... HAIL... LIGHTNING. FLASH
FLOOD CAME DOWN DRAINAGE THROUGH PROPERTY FROM NORTHEAST
STORM. WATER OVER THEIR BRIDGES... ABOUT EIGHT FEET.
BEGAN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY AFTER ABOUT 11 PM. RESIDUAL
DRAINAGE RUN OFF TODAY. NOT MUCH STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS
DONE TO BRIDGES... BUT GRAVEL WASTED AWAY FROM DRIVEWAY.
SOME DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO VARIOUS IRRIGATION SYSTEMS
AND DITCHES TO NORTH.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301520

$$

BK

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KTBW [152129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152129
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
523 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0421 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 WNW SARASOTA 27.34N 82.56W
09/15/2013 M42 MPH GMZ853 GM MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 WNW SARASOTA /XSRB/
REPORTED 42 MPH/36 KT GUST.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTBW [152125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152125
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
522 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 E BELLEAIR 27.94N 82.80W
09/15/2013 M43 MPH PINELLAS FL MESONET

MESONET STATION 1 E BELLEAIR /XBLA/ REPORTED
A 43 MPH/37 KT GUST.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTBW [152122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152122
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
521 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 E SAINT PETERSBURG 27.77N 82.57W
09/15/2013 M46 MPH GMZ830 GM MESONET

MESONET STATION 6 E SAINT PETERSBURG /XTAM/
REPORTED A 46 MPH/40 KT GUST.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTBW [152118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152118
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
518 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 PM TSTM WND GST 6 E LARGO 27.91N 82.69W
09/15/2013 M51 MPH PINELLAS FL ASOS

ASOS AT KPIE MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 44 KNOTS.


&&

$$

JCM

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KCRP [152105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 152105
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM COASTAL FLOOD CORPUS CHRISTI 27.71N 97.29W
09/15/2013 NUECES TX BROADCAST MEDIA

KIIITV IN CORPUS CHRISTI REPORTING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AT NORTH BEACH WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN. IMAGES
SHOW MINOR FLOODING ONTO ROADWAY.


&&

$$

DVOGELSA

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KTBW [152055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 152055
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
455 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM TSTM WND GST SARASOTA BRADENTON 27.40N 82.55W
09/15/2013 M41 MPH MANATEE FL ASOS

ASOS STATION SARASOTA-BRADENTON AIRPORT
/SRQ/



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KCHS [152052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 152052
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
452 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1059 AM WATER SPOUT 3 ENE FRIPP ISLAND 32.33N 80.44W
09/15/2013 BEAUFORT SC BROADCAST MEDIA

BROADCAST MEDIA VIEWER SENT IN A PICTURE OF A
WATERSPOUT A COUPLE OF MILES OFF OF HUNTING ISLAND. TIME
ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300897

$$

JAQ

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KPUB [152044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 152044
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
244 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE COLORADO SPRINGS 38.88N 104.74W
09/15/2013 M1.85 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MN

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 152036
FFGMPD
COZ000-160000-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0257
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
435 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...COLORADO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 152032Z - 160000Z

SUMMARY...LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
GENERALLY LEAD TO LIGHTER RAFL RATES...EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE GIVEN ELEVATED
CAPES. AREAS IN SOUTHERN CO WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE HIGHER
RAFL RATES WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DNR WAS NEARLY SATURATED FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO APPROXIMATELY 600 MB. ACARS FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT
OF DENVER INTL AIRPORT SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GEOMETRY OF THE
SOUNDING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COOLING AT THE LOWER LEVELS. MOST
OF THE SOUNDINGS SHOWED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE COLDER
AIRMASS WHICH APPEARS TO BE HELPING SUSTAIN SOME MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHERN CO. TO THE SOUTH...EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWED MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER RAFL RATES OVER SOUTHERN CO...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA. THIS AREA HAD HIGHER SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY THAT THE STORMS WERE ABLE TO TAP INTO.

THINK THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16/00Z EXCEPT FOR
A PUSH SOUTHWARD OF THE COLDER AIRMASS INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN CO.
MESOSCALE MODELS FOCUS THE HIGHEST 1 AND 3 HOUR RAFLS SOUTHWARD.
WHILE VALUES FROM THE ARW WERE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN
A 3 HOUR PERIOD...THE PCPN MAX WAS PLACED RIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF
LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THUS FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 16/00Z IN THESE AREAS.

BANN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 37530487 38150573 39440576 40020579 40570534 40560462
40210388 39670321 38180392 37530487

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KABQ [150505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 150505
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1105 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1101 PM FLASH FLOOD ALMA 33.38N 108.90W
09/14/2013 CATRON NM BURN SCAR SPOTS

HIGHWAY 180 CLOSED DUE TO WATER FROM MINERAL CREEK OVER
ROAD... NM ROAD 159 CLOSED EAST OF HWY 180. WATER IN
HOMES IN ALMA.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301378

$$

CA

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 150433
FFGMPD
NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-150832-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0253
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1233 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE AZ...FAR SW CO...SW AND CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 150432Z - 150832Z

SUMMARY...UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS EFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. SLOW MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN
1-2 INCH RAINFALL IN SPOTS AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAD SURVIVED ALREADY A FEW HOURS INTO
THE NIGHT. RAOBS INDICATED THE SURFACE WOULD DECOUPLE RATHER
EASILY...BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION IN SW NM AND SW
CO...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR ABQ AND ALSO OFF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SE AZ AT 04Z...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SUBTLE UPPER FORCING
COULD SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

WEAK WARM ADVECTION WAS OBSERVED IN THE 700-600 MB
LAYER...COINCIDENT WITH SOME OF THE MORE UNSTABLE PARCELS IN THE
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...RAP AND NAM. THE SREF MEAN
PREDICTS MAINTENANCE OF MUCAPE AT LEAST 500-750 J/KG THROUGH 09Z
ACROSS THIS REGION...AS THE LOWER/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUSTAINED AHEAD OF A 45-50 KT
JET STREAK AT 250 MB.

SUSPECT DUAL POL ESTIMATES ARE UNDERESTIMATING IN THE CONVECTIVE
LINE APPROACHING SOCCORRO NM...GIVEN THE DISTANCE FROM RADAR...AND
PLACEMENT OF ALL THE BASE ELEVATION ECHOES AT RANGE BEYOND THE
MELTING LAYER. LEGACY ESTIMATES SUGGEST RATES CLOSER TO 1.5-2 INCH
PER HOUR IN ISOLATED SPOTS. WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MUCH HEAVIER
THAN THIS WITH PW VALUES HAVING FALLEN BELOW 1 INCH OVER THIS
REGION...BUT WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES VERY
LOW...ESPECIALLY IN NM...FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EVEN BEYOND 09Z...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTHWEST CO WHERE UPPER LIFT BECOMES CONCENTRATED.
INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO DECREASE DIURNALLY...BUT SOME AREAS COULD
SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE RAIN ADDING UP OVER TIME.

BURKE

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 37590695 36730590 35730544 33890581 32740723 32320906
32520994 33221044 33640960 34380859 35350788 36550873
37210888 37590857 37590695

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